Bolivia

Economics

Politics

Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz's government came to an agreement with protesting unions and activists to repeal Decree 5503, which declared an economic emergency, while maintaining the measures related to the removal of the fuel subsidy, DW reported on Jan. 11.

Bolivia: Government To Repeal Controversial Economic Decree, With Subsidy Cuts Remaining

Germany

India

Military & Security

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in India's western state of Gujarat, where the two leaders sought to deepen economic and security cooperation and signed agreements covering sectors ranging from critical minerals to traditional medicine, AP reported on Jan. 12.

India, Germany: Agreements Strengthen Economic and Security Cooperation

Japan

Hirofumi Yoshimura, the head of the Japan Innovation Party, a coalition partner of the government, told reporters he believed elections for the lower house of parliament would soon occur following Jan. 9 talks with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Reuters reported on Jan. 11.

Japan: Takaichi Seriously Considering Risky Snap Elections

China

Europe

The European Union outlined a process for Chinese electric vehicle exporters to make minimum price offers to "remove the injurious effects of the subsidization" in China, AP reported on Jan. 12. 

Europe, China: Price Floor Deal To Resolve Electric Vehicle Tariff Dispute, For Now

United States

U.S. prosecutors launched a criminal probe into the Federal Reserve related to the renovation of the Fed's D.C. headquarters in an apparent attempt to weaken the Fed's independence, the Financial Times reported on Jan. 12.

U.S.: Prosecutors Launch Criminal Investigation Into Powell

Somalia

Israel

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Somali Defense Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi called on Arab nations under the leadership of Saudi Arabia to take action against Somalia's breakaway region of Somaliland in an interview with Al Jazeera Arabic, drawing parallels between Somaliland and Yemen's now-dissolved Southern Transitional Council, Garowe Online reported on Jan. 12. 

Somalia: Defense Minister Calls Arab Nations To Take Action Against Somaliland

Australia

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese recalled parliament two weeks early for a special sitting to rush through sweeping hate speech, extremist group and firearms legislation in response to the Dec. 15, 2025, terrorist attack at Bondi Beach, the Australian Financial Review reported on Jan. 12.

Australia: Parliament Recalled to Fast-Track Post-Bondi Legislation

Iran

Cyber

On Jan. 13, U.S. President Donald Trump will be briefed on kinetic and non-kinetic options -- including targeted strikes, cyberattacks, information operations and, least escalatory, announcing military movements like carrier deployments -- regarding a response to Iran's ongoing crackdown on protesters, ABC News reported on Jan. 12.

Iran, U.S.: Trump To Be Briefed on Iran Options on Jan. 13

U.S.-Iran Relations

The world is connected, but even the broadest topics deserve an individual look. Below are our latest and most relevant politics analyses.

Below are our latest and most relevant politics analyses.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

The Post-Apartheid Era Ends

Venezuela's Unraveling

The Saudi Survival Strategy

The Kurdish Struggle

Israel's Survival Strategy

Turkey's Resurgence

EU: Regional Blocs

Divided EU Foreign Policies

Brexit

Old Leaders in a New Africa

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

The Pulse of Political Islam

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Russia's Internal Struggle

China in Transition

Southeast Asia: Burdened by Consensus

India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

Assessments

Iraq

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Yemen

A stock image shows the silhouettes of soldiers.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Emboldened by its recent capture of Venezuela's Maduro, the White House will likely seek to kill and potentially abduct more Middle Eastern extremists in the coming year, but pursuing high-profile targets like Iranian leaders will carry significant risks.

Potential Targets for U.S. Assassination and Abduction Operations in the Middle East

Nigeria

Colombia

Cuba

Mexico

Venezuela

Greenland

Taiwan

Norway

Ukraine

Russia

Pakistan

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Trade

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

U.S.-China Relations

Benin

Uganda

Canada

Denmark

The Greenlandic flag on Jan. 8, 2026, on the roof of Tivoli Castle in Copenhagen, Denmark.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Elections in Uganda and Benin, Canada's Carney Goes to China

Supporters of National Unity Platform (NUP) presidential candidate and opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, also known as Bobi Wine, gather to attend a campaign rally in Kampala, on Nov. 24, 2025. 

President Museveni's expected reelection is set to trigger opposition protests, but a heavy-handed crackdown will likely restore order within weeks, enabling him to resume focus on infrastructure projects and mitigating intra-elite tensions.

Previewing Uganda's General Elections

Syria

Turkey

Soldiers ride atop an armored vehicle during a military parade in Idlib, Syria, on Dec. 8, 2025. 

Domestic political maneuvering and limits on foreign military support will constrain Syria's ability to rebuild its military following the end of the country's civil war.

Internal Divisions Will Hinder Syria's Military Modernization

Columns

On Security

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

Activists hold Iranian flags in support of the ongoing protests in Iran during a rally in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 3, 2026.

The demonstrations could endure for several more weeks or months before they are ultimately suppressed, opening the door to risky Israeli and/or U.S. military or covert action against Iranian senior leadership amid the turmoil.

Protests in Iran Provide a Window for U.S. and/or Israeli Intervention

A 3D rendering of the Canadian, U.S. and Mexican flags.

Energy

The White House is expected to utilize threats of scrapping the trilateral pact in favor of bilateral agreements as a high-stakes negotiating tactic, creating a period of intense business uncertainty and market volatility.

The Outlook for USMCA Renegotiation in 2026

Media

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

Sudan

Saudi-backed forces are seen on the outskirts of Yemen's Hadramawt province, where the UAE-backed secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) recently launched an offensive, on Jan. 3, 2026. 

The Gulf nations' growing battle for influence is straining bilateral ties and fueling proxy conflicts in places like Yemen and Sudan, though both sides will likely avoid any escalation that could harm their economies.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE Pursue Divergent Paths in a Multipolar World

The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.

Scenarios for the coming year range from unilateral military action by the United States to a U.S.-Denmark agreement to expand Washington's capabilities on the island.


How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?

Brazil

Guyana

Venezuela's National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez (C) gestures during the official picture of the new National Assembly in Caracas on Jan. 5, 2026. 

Venezuela's acting president is most likely to cooperate with the United States to keep the country's regime intact, but other, more volatile scenarios remain possible. 

Venezuela's Post-Maduro Outlook: Potential Scenarios

Politics

SITUATION REPORTS

Bolivia: Government To Repeal Controversial Economic Decree, With Subsidy Cuts Remaining

India, Germany: Agreements Strengthen Economic and Security Cooperation

Japan: Takaichi Seriously Considering Risky Snap Elections

Europe, China: Price Floor Deal To Resolve Electric Vehicle Tariff Dispute, For Now

U.S.: Prosecutors Launch Criminal Investigation Into Powell

Somalia: Defense Minister Calls Arab Nations To Take Action Against Somaliland

Australia: Parliament Recalled to Fast-Track Post-Bondi Legislation

Iran, U.S.: Trump To Be Briefed on Iran Options on Jan. 13

Forecasts

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