China

India

Pakistan

Military & Security

Politics

Pakistan's Punjab state banned public gatherings, sit-ins, rallies, demonstrations and similar activities in Rawalpindi district, which is adjacent to the federal capital, Islamabad, for eight days, and the federal government deployed 10,000 police and paramilitary personnel to the capital, Geo News reported on Oct. 11.

Pakistan: Islamabad Prepares To Host Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit

Japan

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party revealed its manifesto for the upcoming Oct. 27 snap general election, the Sankei Shimbun reported on Oct. 10.

Japan: LDP Manifesto Drops Controversial Foreign Policies Ahead of Polls

Ukraine

Russia

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A Russian offensive in the Ukrainian-occupied Korenevsky and Sudzhansky districts of Russia's Kursk region resulted in Ukrainian troops losing the largest piece of their salient in the region since Sept. 14, Agentstvo reported on Oct. 11.

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Conducts Largest Attack on Kursk Salient in Over a Month

Mali

A column of armed vehicles from the Malian army and Russia's paramilitary Wagner Group turned back without a fight from an operation against the northern town of Tinzaouaten, which is held by Tuareg rebels of the Permanent Strategic Framework for the Defense of the People of Azawad, or CSP-DPA, Jeune Afrique reported on Oct. 10.

Mali: Pro-Government Military Operation Turns Back From Tinzaouaten

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Somalia

Egypt

Egypt, Eritrea and Somalia agreed to advance joint security cooperation at a trilateral summit of the three countries' heads of state, Reuters reported on Oct. 10.

Africa: Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia Advance Tripartite Security Partnership

Mozambique

Opposition presidential candidate Venancio Mondlane unilaterally declared victory in Mozambique's Oct. 9 general election despite the absence of official results from the National Election Commission, Club of Mozambique reported on Oct. 10.

Mozambique: Opposition Candidate Unilaterally Declares Victory in General Election

Bolivia

Economics

A Bolivian prosecutor issued an arrest warrant for former President Evo Morales after he failed to testify on an investigation into him regarding human trafficking and rape, El Deber reported on Oct. 11.

Bolivia: Potential Arrest of Former President To Fuel Instability, Unrest Risks

Colombia

The Colombian government accepted an invitation from the National Liberation Army armed guerrilla group, or ELN, to resume peace talks, which stopped in September after the parties resumed clashes with one another across the country, Colombia Reports reported on Oct. 10.

Colombia: Government and ELN Agree To Resume Peace Talks

The world is connected, but even the broadest topics deserve an individual look. Below are our latest and most relevant politics analyses.

Below are our latest and most relevant politics analyses.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

The Post-Apartheid Era Ends

Venezuela's Unraveling

The Saudi Survival Strategy

The Kurdish Struggle

Israel's Survival Strategy

Turkey's Resurgence

EU: Regional Blocs

Divided EU Foreign Policies

Brexit

Old Leaders in a New Africa

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

The Pulse of Political Islam

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Russia's Internal Struggle

China in Transition

Southeast Asia: Burdened by Consensus

India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

Assessments

Israel

Lebanon

A plume of smoke billows following an Israeli air strike above a border town in southern Lebanon on Oct. 7, 2024. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

While the country may initially come together in the face of Israel's invasion, various Lebanese factions will probably become more critical of Hezbollah as the war wears on, raising the risk of violence between the group and its domestic rivals.

How Long Will Lebanon Rally Behind Hezbollah's Fight Against Israel?

Media

United States

Podcasts

Social Issues

What levels of unrest are we likely to see throughout 2024 and beyond?

Essential Geopolitics: The Risk of U.S. Political Unrest Leading up to Elections

Global Elections

Columns

On Geopolitics

Iran

Iraq

Palestinian Territories

Syria

Yemen

An Israeli tank Aug. 7, 2024, in southern Israel along the border with the Gaza Strip. Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year. 

Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year.

Will War in the Middle East Last Another Year?

U.S.-Iran Relations

Taiwan

Taiwanese President William Lai gives his inauguration speech on May 20, 2024, in Taipei, Taiwan.

The president's recent remarks indicate he will continue to remove rhetorical ambiguity about Taiwan's de facto sovereignty, portending more Chinese military drills and deeper Western engagement with Taiwan.

For Taiwan, Lai's Pro-Sovereignty Rhetoric May Invite Western Support -- and Chinese Drills

Snapshots

Moldova

Moldovan President Maya Sandu delivers a speech in Chisinau on Sept. 20, 2024, during a rally to launch her reelection campaign.

Arguably the biggest threat to Moldova's pro-European trajectory comes not from the two impending Oct. 20 votes themselves, but how the results impact the country's 2025 parliamentary election.

Previewing Moldova's Presidential Race and Referendum on EU Membership

Indonesia

Indonesian Defense Minister and President-elect Prabowo Subianto (center) is seen next to outgoing President Joko Widodo (right) in the parliament building in Jakarta on Aug. 16, 2024. 

The defense minister-turned-president will maintain his predecessor's efforts to bolster Indonesia's economy while adopting a more hawkish stance abroad, particularly on the country's territorial dispute with China.

In Indonesia, Previewing the Prabowo Presidency

Brazil

Tunisia

Germany

A man in Maputo walks past a wall covered with electoral posters in support of Daniel Chapo, the ruling party candidate in Mozambique’s presidential election, on Oct. 4, 2024. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Germany as Mozambique, Tunisia and Brazil Hold Elections

Georgia

The founder of the Georgian Dream party, Bidzina Ivanishvili, stands behind the bulletproof glass as he gives a campaign speech in Gori, Georgia, on Sept. 14, 2024.

In the likely case that the ruling GD party clings to power, Georgia will continue to feign interest in Western integration as it deepens ties with China and Russia. But an opposition victory that yields a new, pro-European government cannot be ruled out.

What's at Stake in Georgia's Oct. 26 Election

Rwanda

Frelimo electoral posters are plastered on a wall in Maputo, Mozambique, on Aug. 24, 2024, the first day of the presidential campaign season ahead of the general election on Oct. 9, 2024.

Energy

Mozambique's upcoming general election will likely bring another five years of Frelimo rule, though an independent candidate is drawing LNG contracts to the forefront of the campaign season.

Mozambique's General Election Brings LNG Contracts Centerstage

Tunisian President Kais Saied speaks to reporters Dec. 24, 2023, in Mnihla in Ariana province, Tunisia. In a second term, Saied would likely undermine the judiciary and push for constitutional reforms to expand his powers, but will not make meaningful economic reforms for fear of protests. 

Once in office, Kais Saied will likely undermine the judiciary and push for constitutional reforms to expand his powers, but will not make meaningful economic reforms for fear of protests. 

Tunisia's President Poised for Reelection, and to Expand His Power

Internally displaced people walk past the Tigrayan flag at the Tsehaye camp in Ethiopia's Shire, Tigray region, on July 16, 2024. 

Factionalism within the Tigray region's ruling party raises the prospect of resurging clashes in the region, threatening to undermine Ethiopia's recent peace and economic gains.

Tigray's Leadership Tussle Bodes Ill for Ethiopia

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during a rally supporting Sao Paulo mayoral candidate Guilherme Boulos (L) on Aug. 24 in Sao Paulo, Brazil. While Brazil's upcoming municipal elections will not substantially change the status quo at the local level, they will kick-start the race for the presidency in 2026.

While the vote will not substantially change the status quo at the local level, it will kick-start the race for the presidency in 2026.

Brazil's Municipal Elections Will Leave the Status Quo Intact

Politics

SITUATION REPORTS

Pakistan: Islamabad Prepares To Host Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit

Japan: LDP Manifesto Drops Controversial Foreign Policies Ahead of Polls

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Conducts Largest Attack on Kursk Salient in Over a Month

Mali: Pro-Government Military Operation Turns Back From Tinzaouaten

Africa: Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia Advance Tripartite Security Partnership

Mozambique: Opposition Candidate Unilaterally Declares Victory in General Election

Bolivia: Potential Arrest of Former President To Fuel Instability, Unrest Risks

Colombia: Government and ELN Agree To Resume Peace Talks

Forecasts

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