Venezuela's Unraveling

In a notable shift from its hardline anti-Maduro rhetoric, Washington has called on both sides of Venezuela's political battle to step aside for a new transitional government and free elections.

Bolton's departure has the potential to affect U.S. policy on everything from Iran to arms control.

Frustrated by the lack of progress toward a coup or a negotiation yielding elections, the U.S. administration ramps up economic pressure in hopes of breaking the stalemate in Caracas.

With dissident leader Juan Guaido faltering in his efforts to oust Venezuela's current government, foreign bondholders will go after the country's assets more aggressively -- hurting the economic prospects of any post-Maduro administration.

If true, it could signal that the opposition push to remove Maduro will fall apart as competing centers of power in the opposition jockey to determine his successor.

As the country's chief source of export revenue drops off, its elites will start to jockey for a slice of illicit income streams.

In trying to understand the reasons for the success or failure of a military uprising like the one attempted last week in Venezuela, look to individual psychology, and not ideology.

A failed uprising attempt could all but ensure an extended Maduro regime by limiting Washington's options for regime change, while bolstering those of the Caracas' allies.

The opposition's attempt to force regime change risks disrupting Venezuela's oil production, but only in limited circumstances.