United States

Venezuela

Spain

Italy

Energy

In a letter last month, the United States authorized Italy's Eni and Spain's Repsol to resume oil shipments from Venezuela's state-owned energy company PDVSA under the debt-for-oil schemes that the two companies took before Washington tightened sanctions on Venezuela in 2020, Reuters reported June 6.

Venezuela: U.S. to Allow Debt-for-Oil Swaps With European Majors

Venezuela's Unraveling

Iran

Economics

Iranian state oil and gas firms have started negotiations with Caracas to restore Venezuela's Paraguana Refinery Complex, which has the capacity to refine 955,000 barrels of oil per day, making it the country's largest oil refinery, Reuters reported May 23.

Venezuela: Iran to Help Revamp Venezuela's Largest Oil Refinery

Iran's Arc of Influence

Politics

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

After the U.S. government allowed the resumption of talks between U.S. oil and gas company Chevron and the Venezuelan government, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro announced that his regime would resume "formal conversations" with opposition forces, TaCual reported May 17.

Venezuela: Maduro Returns to Talks With Opposition After U.S. Relaxes Restrictions

Senior U.S. officials met directly with officials in the administration of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to discuss easing oil and gas sanctions in exchange for political concessions, though little progress was made since both sides took a maximalist position, The Guardian reported March 5.

Venezuela, U.S.: Officials Discuss Easing Oil and Gas Sanctions

Costa Rica

Cuba

Nicaragua

Social Issues

Military & Security

Crossing Borders

Approximately 200 Cubans protested near Costa Rica's embassy in Havana in response to Costa Rica's new requirements for Cubans and Nicaraguans to show transit visas if they pass through Costa Rica on their way to other countries, Reuters reported Feb. 21.

Costa Rica: Cubans Protest New Visa Requirements Near Costa Rican Embassy

Security

Security Challenges in Latin America

A Miami federal court judge unsealed the hearing of Venezuelan businessman Alex Saab, showing that he served as a confidential informant for the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration for nearly a year in 2018, Caracas Chronicles reported Feb. 17.

Venezuela: Top Maduro Ally Revealed as Former DEA Informant

The Venezuelan government approved a Tax on Large Financial Transactions, which will levy a fee of 3%-20% on the use of dollars, other foreign currencies and cryptocurrencies, CoinGeek reported Feb. 11.

Venezuela: Government Levies Tax on Use of USD and Cryptocurrencies

Venezuela’s government-run National Electoral Council stated that the previous day’s efforts to collect enough signatures for a nationwide recall referendum of President Nicolas Maduro had failed and could not proceed, Reuters reported Jan. 27.

Venezuela: Efforts to Call Recall Referendum Failed

Venezuela is one of Latin America's most dynamic and troubled countries. It had been relatively stable during the administration of President Hugo Chavez, but when he died, stability died with him, aided in no small part but the fall of the price of oil. His successor, Nicolas Maduro, is now being challenged not only by Venezuelan citizens, who are angry as they struggle to obtain the most basic living staples and foodstuffs, but also by politicians inside and outside his own political party. His ruling party may not survive the coming collapse, but if it does, it will have the daunting challenge of trying to rebuild the economy.

Venezuela had been relatively stable during the administration of President Hugo Chavez, but when he died, stability died with him, aided in no small part but the fall of the price of oil.

Colombia

South America: Split Decisions on Trade

Commodities: A Cautionary Tale

A Crude Recovery

Assessments

(From left to right) U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinkin, U.S. President Joe Biden and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meet with Colombian President Ivan Duque at the White House on March 10, 2022, following a recent meeting between U.S. and Venezuelan officials where the possibility of easing oil sanctions was discussed. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The fallout from sanctions on Russia is forcing Washington to mull easing pressure on the government in Caracas it's been trying to oust for years.

In Venezuela, the U.S. Puts Politics Aside to Unlock More Oil Exports

Guidance

Chile

China

Austria

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, during an official welcoming Oct. 15, 2019, in the Emirati capital's Al-Watan presidential palace. Mohammed will possibly meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Nov. 24 

Environment, Science & Technology

Southeast Asia: Burdened by Consensus

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Lockdowns Return to Europe, an Emirati-Turkish Meeting

COVID-19

Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido (center) speaks during a press conference at a park in Caracas on June 30, 2021.

While Maduro’s regime is unlikely to agree to free and fair elections, the opposition may be able to secure smaller concessions, like prisoner releases.

In Venezuela-Opposition Talks, the Prospects for Progress Are Low 

Columns

On Geopolitics

Burundi

South Africa

El Salvador

Myanmar

North Korea

Europe

Russia

Iraq

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks about the situation in Myanmar following the recent military coup in Washington D.C. on Feb. 10, 2021. 

Globalization

Coping With a Nuclear North Korea

Russia's Internal Struggle

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Amid talk of new U.S. sanctions on Myanmar and Russia, we review what factors make such penalties most effective in actually altering a country’s behavior.

Reviewing the Role and Effectiveness of Sanctions

U.S.-China Relations

Snapshots

Argentina

Mexico

Opposition leader Juan Guaido speaks at an event in Caracas, Venezuela, on Feb. 11, 2020. 

Disputes over whether to boycott the vote risk further weakening Guiado and his interim government’s legitimacy, thus leaving President Maduro in power for longer.

Legislative Elections Risk Leaving Venezuela’s Opposition in Shambles

The walls surrounding the Kremlin are reflected on a plaque at the entrance of the oil company Rosneft's headquarters in Moscow. 

Moscow’s move to give up its majority stake continues the oil giant’s decadeslong shift toward a more market-driven future.

Russia Loosens the Reins on Rosneft

In a notable shift from its hardline anti-Maduro rhetoric, Washington has called on both sides of Venezuela's political battle to step aside for a new transitional government and free elections.

In Venezuela, the U.S. Offers Sanctions Relief for a Power-Sharing Deal

On Security

South Korea

The volatile situation in Venezuela has led to widespread evacuations.

Personal Security

From sorting out where to go to developing options for escape, knowing how to evacuate a country can help diplomats and expatriates make the best of an emergency.

Plan. Prepare. Avoid a Mad Dash When Crisis Erupts

Afghanistan

John Bolton's dismissal as national security adviser has the potential to affect U.S. policy on everything from Iran to arms control.

Bolton's departure has the potential to affect U.S. policy on everything from Iran to arms control.

How Bolton's Removal as U.S. National Security Adviser Will Shape U.S. Foreign Policy

Modernizing China’s Military

Frustrated by the lack of progress toward a coup or a negotiation yielding elections, the U.S. administration ramps up economic pressure in hopes of breaking the stalemate in Caracas.

Venezuela: The White House Broadens the Target Set for Sanctions

With dissident leader Juan Guaido faltering in his efforts to oust Venezuela's current government, foreign bondholders will go after the country's assets more aggressively -- hurting the economic prospects of any post-Maduro administration.

As Venezuela's Opposition Stumbles, the Country's Creditors Circle

If true, it could signal that the opposition push to remove Maduro will fall apart as competing centers of power in the opposition jockey to determine his successor.

Venezuela: Reports of a New Coup Plot Suggest Trouble for Guaido

Venezuela's Unraveling

SITUATION REPORTS

Venezuela: U.S. to Allow Debt-for-Oil Swaps With European Majors

Venezuela: Iran to Help Revamp Venezuela's Largest Oil Refinery

Venezuela: Maduro Returns to Talks With Opposition After U.S. Relaxes Restrictions

Venezuela, U.S.: Officials Discuss Easing Oil and Gas Sanctions

Costa Rica: Cubans Protest New Visa Requirements Near Costa Rican Embassy

Venezuela: Top Maduro Ally Revealed as Former DEA Informant

Venezuela: Government Levies Tax on Use of USD and Cryptocurrencies

Venezuela: Efforts to Call Recall Referendum Failed

Forecasts

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