United States

Egypt

Jordan

Lebanon

Turkey

Economics

Politics

Jordanian diplomats quietly secured U.S. funding for projects focused on desalination, direct budget support and defense following the sudden U.S. aid freeze announced in January, Reuters reported on April 30.

U.S., Jordan: Washington Unfreezes Some Aid to Jordan

Somalia

United Arab Emirates

Military & Security

Somali Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi publicly criticized Sivuyile Bam, the acting head of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), labeling him a "threat to Somalia's development and security" and accusing him of sympathizing with the militant group al Shabaab, Garowe Online reported on April 18. 

Somalia: Minister Accuses AU Mission Head of Bias Amid Escalating al Shabaab Threat

Syria

The United States plans to withdraw up to half of its 2,000 troops stationed in Syria over the next several months, Reuters reported on April 15.

Syria, U.S.: Washington Plans Troop Drawdown in Syria

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with a delegation from the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy (DEM Party), in addition to the intelligence chief and the deputy leader of his ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, to discuss steps toward a peace process, Hurriyet Daily News reported April 10.

Turkey: Erdogan Holds Rare Meeting With Pro-Kurdish Lawmakers

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

In drills that ended on April 11, the Israeli air force confirmed that it flew alongside Qatar's air force for the first time at the annual Iniochos exercise held in Greece, The Times of Israel reported the same day.

Israel, Qatar: Military Cooperation Signals Improved Relations, but Normalization Remains Unlikely

Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Israel and Turkey were discussing deconfliction in Syria, and Turkish and Israeli political sources said these talks were taking place in Azerbaijan, Reuters reported on April 10. 

Israel, Turkey: Governments Establish Deconfliction Process in Syria

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Turkey's Trade Minister Omer Bolat said that Turkey would try to negotiate the 10% tariffs imposed on the country with the U.S. Department of Commerce and Trade and would attend the Turkish-American Conference in D.C. in May, Reuters reported April 4.

Turkey, MENA, U.S.: Turkey Will Seek to Negotiate U.S. Tariffs

Ozgur Ozel, the head of Turkey's opposition Republican People's Party, or CHP, called for an economic boycott on April 2 to protest the arrest of CHP presidential candidate Ekrem Imamoglu and the arrest of 301 university students in subsequent protests, Hurriyet reported on April 2.

Turkey: Opposition Calls for Economic Boycott 

Assessments

Fighters gather outside a building that was seized by jihadists in Syria's northern Aleppo province on Nov. 29, 2024, amid the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) offensive against government forces.

The two countries will seek to avoid direct conflict amid U.S. pressure to de-escalate tensions, but their competing military presence in Syria and elevated risk tolerances leave the door open to miscalculations and limited clashes.

Can Israel and Turkey Avoid a Conflict in Syria?

Europe

Philippe Lazzarini (C), the commissioner general for the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, attends a humanitarian conference for Gaza in Cairo, Egypt, on Dec. 2, 2024, amid the continuing Israel-Hamas war.

Egypt's economic limitations will continue to restrain its assertiveness in foreign policy, constraining its ability to project power in the region.

Egypt's Economic Priorities Sideline Assertive Foreign Policy

China

South Korea

Germany

France

United Kingdom

Ukraine

Russia

People wave flags and chant slogans during a protest in front of the municipality headquarters in support of arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on March 19, 2025, in Istanbul, Turkey. 

Global Trade

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. To Announce Tariffs, Protests in Turkey Rage On

Snapshots

People in Istanbul, Turkey, walk past a currency exchange board showing the Turkish lira, which fell to historic lows against the dollar upon the news of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu's arrest on March 19, 2025. 

Extensive foreign exchange sales have so far kept the Turkish lira relatively stable, but this is a high-risk strategy as it could eventually force Ankara to allow for significant exchange rate depreciation.

Turkey's Efforts To Stabilize Markets Amid Protests May Not Be Sustainable

Escorted by riot police, students burn flares on March 24, 2025, as they march along the streets of Istanbul, Turkey, in support of the city's mayor after he was arrested on corruption charges. 

The protests will likely last for several more weeks following the arrest of Erdogan's top rival, but unless organizers can tap into other grievances, the movement eventually risks losing momentum.

Assessing the Pro-Democracy Protests in Turkey and Their Threat to Erdogan

People wave Turkish national flags as they protest in Istanbul on March 20, 2025, following Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu's detention over a corruption probe.

The charismatic Istanbul mayor's detention will likely trigger protests and further undermine his party's ability to challenge Erdogan and the AKP in the 2028 presidential election.

In Turkey, Imamoglu's Arrest Dims the Opposition's Presidential Prospects

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Georgia

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev (4th from left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (5th from left) attend a meeting in Moscow on April 22, 2024. 

Russia's influence in the South Caucasus is set to decline in the years ahead as countries adjust their foreign policies to balance global and regional powers, creating opportunities for China, Turkey and the West.

The Coming South Caucasus Realignment

Iraq

Syrian Kurds wave independence-era flags in support of the U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces on Dec. 19, 2024, in the northeastern Syrian city of Qamishli.

A rapprochement would boost the odds of Turkish constitutional reform needed to give Erdogan another term, while its failure could presage regionwide violence.

Hints Emerge of a Turkish-Kurdish Thaw

Iran

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan welcomes his Syrian counterpart Asaad Al-Shaibani before attending an Arab officials' meeting in Riyadh on Jan. 12, 2025.

Saudi Arabia's re-engagement with Lebanon, Syria and Iraq aims to counterbalance Turkey, Qatar and Iran but faces limits due to sectarian politics and foreign interference, which may make Riyadh more assertive over time.

Saudi Arabia Moves To Counterbalance Turkey and Qatar, Replace Iran in the Levant

Fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stand atop a humvee in Syria's northeastern Hasakah province during a joint military exercise with the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State on Sept. 7, 2022.

The threat of a Turkish offensive and decreasing U.S. aid will increasingly pressure the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces to reach a deal with Syria's new government. 

The Uncertain Future of U.S.-Backed Kurds in Syria

Columns

On Geopolitics

Syria’s de-facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa addresses a crowd at a mosque in Damascus on Dec. 8, 2024.

While Syrians will drive their country's destiny, external influence from regional and global powers could determine what kind of government replaces the deposed Assad regime.

Syria's Future: Islamist Republic, Turkish Client State, or Jihadist Stronghold?

Angola

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

Argentina

Brazil

Canada

Ecuador

Mexico

Algeria

Tunisia

Yemen

Taiwan

Belarus

Pakistan

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Cyber

Energy

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

<p>The Republic of Turkey straddles Europe and Asia, forming a land bridge that links the Levant, Iran and the Caucasus with Southeastern Europe. In stark contrast to its predecessor, the Ottoman Empire, modern Turkey is confined largely to the semi-arid, mountainous terrain of the Anatolian Peninsula and the capital-rich lands surrounding the Sea of Marmara. This low-lying region contains the large cities of Istanbul and Izmir and the two chokepoints linking the Black Sea to the Mediterranean &mdash; the Bosporus and the Dardanelles. This area is the core of Turkey&#39;s population and economy. Turkey&rsquo;s geographic challenge is expanding the economic stability and development of this core into the eastern region of the country. Anatolia&rsquo;s rugged geography and mountainous terrain make economic and infrastructure development difficult, but has historically helped to prevent land invasions from the east and south. Modern Turkey is working to integrate this largely rural, poorer hinterland into the political and economic mainstream in an attempt to link its current Islamist government to its neighbors in the broader Middle East. However, significant challenges remain. Turkey has fought a decades-long Kurdish insurgency in its southeastern regions, where the Taurus Mountains and the Eastern Anatolian plateau give sanctuary to Kurdish separatist militants. Turkey&rsquo;s position at the crossroads between East and West provides the country with several geopolitical possibilities. The country is working to serve as a transit state linking the exports of its energy-rich eastern neighbors to consumer markets in Europe. Its location also invites a series of constraints, as reflected by Turkey&rsquo;s position surrounded by Europe&rsquo;s economic decline, Iranian ambitions in Syria and Iraq, and Russian interests in the Caucasus.</p>

Turkey's Resurgence

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Jordan: Washington Unfreezes Some Aid to Jordan

Somalia: Minister Accuses AU Mission Head of Bias Amid Escalating al Shabaab Threat

Syria, U.S.: Washington Plans Troop Drawdown in Syria

Turkey: Erdogan Holds Rare Meeting With Pro-Kurdish Lawmakers

Israel, Qatar: Military Cooperation Signals Improved Relations, but Normalization Remains Unlikely

Israel, Turkey: Governments Establish Deconfliction Process in Syria

Turkey, MENA, U.S.: Turkey Will Seek to Negotiate U.S. Tariffs

Turkey: Opposition Calls for Economic Boycott

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