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A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Turkey Holds a Presidential Runoff, U.S. Debt Ceiling Talks Enter Crunch Time

U.S.-China Relations

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Does the opposition still have a chance to take the presidency?

Essential Geopolitics: What to Expect from Turkey's Runoff Election

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan waves to his supporters from a balcony in Ankara, Turkey, on May 15, 2023. 

The opposition’s failure to secure a majority in parliament and win the first round of the presidential election increases the likelihood of Erdogan securing another term in the May 28 run-off.

In Turkey, a Presidential Run-Off Bodes Well for Erdogan

China

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Russia

Supporters of AKP and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on May 12, 2023, in Istanbul.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: A G-7 Summit in Japan, Significant Elections in Turkey

Syrian Kurds gather in the northeastern city of Qamishli on May 10, 2023, to show their support for the Turkish opposition ahead of Turkey's election. Images of Abdullah Ocalan, the leader of the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK), are seen on some demonstrators' placards and clothing.

Social Issues

If the majority of Kurds vote for Kilicdaroglu, he stands a good chance of defeating Erodgan and ending years of hawkish government policies toward the ethnic group.

In Turkey's Election, the Kurds Will Be the Kingmaker

Opposition supporters wave Turkish flags and chant slogans while waiting for the arrival of their presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu during a campaign rally in Izmir, Turkey, on April 30, 2023.

The May 14 legislative and presidential ballot could end the AKP's 20-year reign, raising the risk of political instability, policymaking paralysis and even a constitutional crisis.

The Potential Outcomes of Turkey's General Election

Armenia

Azerbaijan

A photo taken on May 2, 2023, shows the new checkpoint set up by Azerbaijan at the entrance of the Lachin Corridor, the only land link connecting the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region to Armenia. 

Military & Security

A recent setback in budding Turkey-Armenia normalization could prompt Azerbaijan to more aggressively pursue its interests in Nagorno-Karabakh, raising the risk of a new conflict.

A Return to Icier Turkey-Armenia Ties Risks Emboldening Azerbaijan

Will cooperation between key opposition parties improve their electoral chances?

Essential Geopolitics: Everything You Need to Know About Turkey's May 14 Election

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France

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (C) at a weekly Cabinet meeting Feb. 19, 2023, in Jerusalem.

The Weekly Rundown: Israel's Cabinet Votes on a National Guard, Von der Leyen and Macron Visit China

CHP Chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu (R) on March 7 in Ankara. Turkey's Nation Alliance decided March 6 to name Kilicdaroglu to stand as its joint presidential candidate May 14.

Growing unity among Turkish opposition parties increases their odds of ousting Erdogan in May, positioning them to reverse his political and economic policies.

The Opposition Outlook Improves Ahead of Turkey's Presidential Vote

Canada

Iran

The flag of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) flutters in front of the IAEA building in Vienna, Austria, on July 10, 2019.

Energy

The Weekly Rundown: EU Commission President Visits the U.S. and Canada, China's 'Two Sessions' Meetings Begin

Columns

On Geopolitics

Saudi Arabia

(From left) Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, then-Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa pose for a photo during the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 28, 2019. 

With the end of the U.S.-led unipolar world, nationalist ideologies have the freedom to evolve into more complex belief systems, presenting new challenges and opportunities for geopolitical forecasters.

The Effects of Modern Ideology on Forecasting and Analysis

Turkey's far-right Victory Party announced its support for opposition presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu prior to the May 28 runoff, AP reported on May 24.

Turkey: Kilicdaroglu Lands Some Nationalist Support From Victory Party

Sinan Ogan, the third runner-up in Turkey's May 14 presidential elections for the nationalist ATA Alliance, endorsed incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ahead of the upcoming May 28 runoff between Erdogan and his opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Al Jazeera reported on May 22.

Turkey: Ogan Endorses Erdogan Ahead of Runoff Presidential Election

Turkish presidential challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu pledged to "send all refugees back home once I am elected president, period" ahead of the May 28 runoff vote between himself and incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Reuters reported on May 18.

Turkey: Kilicdaroglu Pledges to Expel All Migrants in Bid to Win Runoff

Sinan Ogan, Turkey's ultranationalist presidential candidate who will not move on to the May 28 runoff vote, clarified his conditions on May 16 for telling his supporters to vote for either incumbent candidate Recep Tayyip Erdogan or opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Hurriyet Daily News reported the next day.

Turkey: Ogan Lays Out Conditions for Supporting Erdogan or Kilicdaroglu

Turkey’s presidential election will go to a runoff in two weeks after incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won 49.5% of the vote, opposition challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu won 44.89%, and ultra-nationalist Sinan Ogan won 5.17%.

Turkey: General Elections Bode Well for Ruling Alliance in Presidency and Legislature

Muharram Ince, the founder of Turkey's opposition center-left Homeland Party, announced that he is withdrawing his candidacy for president in the country's May 14 general election, AP reported on May 11.

Turkey: Rival Opposition Candidate Withdraws From Presidential Election, Increasing Kilicdaroglu's Chances

A rally held by Ekrem Imamoglu -- a Turkish opposition politician, Istanbul mayor and vice presidential candidate -- in the eastern city of Erzurum ended early when a large group of people began throwing stones at Imamoglu and other participants, injuring a dozen people, Bloomberg reported on May 7.

Turkey: Attack on Opposition Rally May Portend Further Violence

Over 800,000 Turkish citizens abroad have already voted in the May 14 general election, compared with only 400,000 early expatriate votes in the 2018 election, Hurriyet Daily News reported on May 4.

Turkey: High Voter Turnout for Expatriates May Bolster Erdogan's Presidential Chances

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Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

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The administrative center of the Gakh region of Azerbaijan, located at the foot of the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, on the river Kurhumchai.

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<p>The Republic of Turkey straddles Europe and Asia, forming a land bridge that links the Levant, Iran and the Caucasus with Southeastern Europe. In stark contrast to its predecessor, the Ottoman Empire, modern Turkey is confined largely to the semi-arid, mountainous terrain of the Anatolian Peninsula and the capital-rich lands surrounding the Sea of Marmara. This low-lying region contains the large cities of Istanbul and Izmir and the two chokepoints linking the Black Sea to the Mediterranean &mdash; the Bosporus and the Dardanelles. This area is the core of Turkey&#39;s population and economy. Turkey&rsquo;s geographic challenge is expanding the economic stability and development of this core into the eastern region of the country. Anatolia&rsquo;s rugged geography and mountainous terrain make economic and infrastructure development difficult, but has historically helped to prevent land invasions from the east and south. Modern Turkey is working to integrate this largely rural, poorer hinterland into the political and economic mainstream in an attempt to link its current Islamist government to its neighbors in the broader Middle East. However, significant challenges remain. Turkey has fought a decades-long Kurdish insurgency in its southeastern regions, where the Taurus Mountains and the Eastern Anatolian plateau give sanctuary to Kurdish separatist militants. Turkey&rsquo;s position at the crossroads between East and West provides the country with several geopolitical possibilities. The country is working to serve as a transit state linking the exports of its energy-rich eastern neighbors to consumer markets in Europe. Its location also invites a series of constraints, as reflected by Turkey&rsquo;s position surrounded by Europe&rsquo;s economic decline, Iranian ambitions in Syria and Iraq, and Russian interests in the Caucasus.</p>

Turkey's Resurgence

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

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SITUATION REPORTS

Turkey: Kilicdaroglu Lands Some Nationalist Support From Victory Party

Turkey: Ogan Endorses Erdogan Ahead of Runoff Presidential Election

Turkey: Kilicdaroglu Pledges to Expel All Migrants in Bid to Win Runoff

Turkey: Ogan Lays Out Conditions for Supporting Erdogan or Kilicdaroglu

Turkey: General Elections Bode Well for Ruling Alliance in Presidency and Legislature

Turkey: Rival Opposition Candidate Withdraws From Presidential Election, Increasing Kilicdaroglu's Chances

Turkey: Attack on Opposition Rally May Portend Further Violence

Turkey: High Voter Turnout for Expatriates May Bolster Erdogan's Presidential Chances

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