Iraq

Turkey

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Iraq for the first time in 13 years culminated in the signing of 26 agreements, including a multilateral memorandum of understanding between the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey and Iraq for the Development Road project, Anadolu Agency reported on April 23.

Turkey, Iraq: Erdogan's Iraq Visit Yields Development and Security Agreements

United States

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Qatar's Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said Qatar is reassessing its role as a mediator in the Israel-Hamas war amid stalled attempts to broker a cease-fire and U.S. and Israeli criticism of Qatar's handling of negotiations, BBC reported on April 17. 

Qatar: Doha Reassesses Mediator Role in Israel-Hamas War

France

The Turkish Ministry of Trade announced that it would halt exports to Israel in 54 categories, including iron and steel products, jet fuel, construction equipment, bricks, chemicals, and pesticides until Israel agreed to a cease-fire in Gaza and allowed more humanitarian aid into Gaza, Al Jazeera reported on April 9.

Turkey, Israel: Turkey Restricts Exports to Israel Over Gaza War

Russia

Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced that security services had arrested at least 40 suspects with reported links to the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant since March 23 during security raids in eight different provinces, Turkish Minute reported on March 26.

Turkey: Authorities Arrest Hundreds of Islamic State Suspects After Moscow Attack

Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, has signaled that it will begin talks with opposition parties to discuss a new constitution of about 90-100 articles after Eid al-Fitr, which marks the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan on April 9, Hurriyet Daily News reported March 21.

Turkey: Justice and Development Party To Discuss a New Constitution With Opposition Parties

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Turkey's Trade Minister Omer Bolat signed a deal to start talks for a free trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council, Reuters reported on March 21.

Turkey, GCC: FTA Talks Could Increase Trade Values, but Negotiations Could Take Years

Turkey's central bank raised its main interest rate by five percentage points to 50%, surprising many economists who believed the bank would hold the rate steady ahead of municipal elections on March 31, the Financial Times reported on March 21.

Turkey: Central Bank Raises Interest Rates Ahead of Municipal Elections

As part of a security deal with Turkey, Iraq banned the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, a group that Turkey recognizes as a terrorist organization and that has a foothold in semi-autonomous Kurdistan in northern Iraq, Bloomberg reported on March 15.

Turkey, Iraq: Iraq Bans Kurdistan Workers' Party in Security Deal With Turkey

Snapshots

Opposition supporters celebrate Ekrem Imamoglu's reelection as Istanbul's mayor at the Republican People's Party Istanbul Provincial Directorate on April 1, 2024, in Istanbul, Turkey.

Turkey's government scrambles to recover from a weak performance in the country's municipal elections.

A Strong Performance From the Opposition in Turkey's Municipal Elections Bodes Ill for Erdogan

Assessments

South Africa

China

Indonesia

Europe

An APK rally March 29, 2024, in Istanbul. Nationwide municipal elections occur March 31, in which the ruling AKP will likely try to regain the mayoralties of large cities including Ankara and Istanbul.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Turkish Municipal Elections, Blinken Goes to Europe

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (center) poses with Istanbul mayoral candidate Murat Kurum (left) and Ankara mayoral candidate Turgut Altinok (right) during the presentation of the Justice and Development Party's election manifesto in Ankara, Turkey, on Jan. 30, 2024.

If the AKP retakes the mayorships in Istanbul and Ankara, it could further embolden the ruling party to pursue a constitutional referendum vote that would allow President Erdogan to run again in 2028.

What's at Stake in Turkey's Municipal Elections

Columns

On Geopolitics

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

Argentina

Mexico

Hong Kong SAR, China

Japan

South Korea

Taiwan

United Kingdom

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Spain

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Armenia

Ukraine

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Bangladesh

India

Pakistan

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Iran

Lebanon

Syria

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (left) and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant attend a press conference in the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv on Oct. 28, 2023, amid ongoing battles between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas. 

Israeli assassinations of Hamas officials abroad would likely provoke more antisemitism and rebukes from Western governments, and maintain the risk of regional escalation with Iranian proxies and potentially Iran itself.

The Potential Ramifications of Israel's Alleged Campaign to Kill Hamas Leaders

Funeral prayers in absentia are held for those who lost their lives in the deadly blast at a Gaza hospital on October 18, 2023, in Ankara, Turkey. 

Domestic pressure to take a more definitively pro-Palestinian stance following the Gaza hospital blast will impede Anakra's ability to mediate between Hamas and Israel.

Rising Anti-Israel Anger Tests Turkey's Ability to Serve as a Mediator in Gaza

A photo taken on Oct. 3, 2023, shows a military position that was recently retaken by Azerbaijani troops in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

With the world distracted by other crises, Azerbaijan may be tempted to seize parts of southern Armenia. But for Baku, the potential benefits of such an operation are still unlikely to outweigh the costs.

Assessing the Prospect of Azerbaijan Invading Armenia

Bahrain

Egypt

Jordan

Kuwait

Morocco

Oman

Tunisia

Yemen

Students from the American University of Beirut (AUB) rally in support of Palestinians outside the main gate of the university in the Lebanese capital on Oct. 9, 2023. 

Social Issues

Israel's likely ground invasion in Gaza will alienate many Muslims in the Middle East, pressuring their governments to respond in support of Palestinians.

Gauging the Regional Response to the Gaza Conflict

Slovakia

The U.S. Capitol on Dec. 22, 2022, in Washington.

The Weekly Rundown: Turkey's Parliamentary Session, a U.S. Government Shutdown

Sub-Saharan Africa

North Macedonia

Georgia

Belarus

An old map labels African countries and regions by their colonial names.

Shifting national identities have always led nations to adopt new names, and in this evolving multipolar world, modern states are no different.

National Identity and the Geopolitics of Choosing a Name

Armenians protest outside the government building in central Yerevan to urge the government to respond to the Azerbaijani military operation launched against the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region on Sept. 19, 2023.

With Nagorno-Karabakh in hand, Azerbaijan will increasingly pressure Armenia to grant concessions amid ongoing peace negotiations, and Russia's influence in the region will continue to decline.

What's Next for the South Caucasus After Azerbaijan's Seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh

A ship transiting Ukrainian grain is seen off the coast of Istanbul, Turkey, on July 17, 2023, after Russia announced its withdrawal from the Black Sea grain export deal.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

If high food prices continue to harm its political popularity at home, Ankara may become more confrontational with Moscow over its blockade of Ukrainian wheat exports. 

What Russia's Refusal to Restore the Ukraine Grain Deal Means for Its Ties With Turkey 

<p>The Republic of Turkey straddles Europe and Asia, forming a land bridge that links the Levant, Iran and the Caucasus with Southeastern Europe. In stark contrast to its predecessor, the Ottoman Empire, modern Turkey is confined largely to the semi-arid, mountainous terrain of the Anatolian Peninsula and the capital-rich lands surrounding the Sea of Marmara. This low-lying region contains the large cities of Istanbul and Izmir and the two chokepoints linking the Black Sea to the Mediterranean &mdash; the Bosporus and the Dardanelles. This area is the core of Turkey&#39;s population and economy. Turkey&rsquo;s geographic challenge is expanding the economic stability and development of this core into the eastern region of the country. Anatolia&rsquo;s rugged geography and mountainous terrain make economic and infrastructure development difficult, but has historically helped to prevent land invasions from the east and south. Modern Turkey is working to integrate this largely rural, poorer hinterland into the political and economic mainstream in an attempt to link its current Islamist government to its neighbors in the broader Middle East. However, significant challenges remain. Turkey has fought a decades-long Kurdish insurgency in its southeastern regions, where the Taurus Mountains and the Eastern Anatolian plateau give sanctuary to Kurdish separatist militants. Turkey&rsquo;s position at the crossroads between East and West provides the country with several geopolitical possibilities. The country is working to serve as a transit state linking the exports of its energy-rich eastern neighbors to consumer markets in Europe. Its location also invites a series of constraints, as reflected by Turkey&rsquo;s position surrounded by Europe&rsquo;s economic decline, Iranian ambitions in Syria and Iraq, and Russian interests in the Caucasus.</p>

Turkey's Resurgence

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

SITUATION REPORTS

Turkey, Iraq: Erdogan's Iraq Visit Yields Development and Security Agreements

Qatar: Doha Reassesses Mediator Role in Israel-Hamas War

Turkey, Israel: Turkey Restricts Exports to Israel Over Gaza War

Turkey: Authorities Arrest Hundreds of Islamic State Suspects After Moscow Attack

Turkey: Justice and Development Party To Discuss a New Constitution With Opposition Parties

Turkey, GCC: FTA Talks Could Increase Trade Values, but Negotiations Could Take Years

Turkey: Central Bank Raises Interest Rates Ahead of Municipal Elections

Turkey, Iraq: Iraq Bans Kurdistan Workers' Party in Security Deal With Turkey

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