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Syria

Turkey

Military & Security

Politics

Fighting broke out across Latakia province along Syria’s coast over the weekend of March 7-9, with war monitors reporting that up to 1,000 people, mostly civilians, were killed as government forces attacked reported regime elements operating in the area, The New York Times reported on March 9. 

Syria: Mass Killings in Latakia Strain Provisional Transition

Iran

Lebanon

Insurgents linked to former Syrian President Bashar al Assad launched attacks across Latakia on March 6-7, taking control of highways, parts of Latakia city and other strategic sites throughout the province in a coordinated assault, AP reported on March 7.

Syria: Provisional Government Faces Down Alawite Uprising in Latakia

Israeli ground forces attacked a former Syrian army base in southern Syria on March 3 and conducted an air raid on Latakia far to the north as part of Israel's efforts to disrupt the build-up of what it sees as anti-Israeli forces in the country, The New York Times reported on March 4. 

Syria, Israel: Israeli Raids Spark Resistance as Provisional Government Battles Assadists

The Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, declared a ceasefire on March 1 following its imprisoned leader's Feb. 27 call for the group to disarm and disband, Reuters reported the same day.

Turkey: PKK Declares Ceasefire 

The commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, said imprisoned Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, leader Abdullah Ocalan's Feb. 27 call for the PKK to disarm and disband "is not related to us in Syria," Reuters reported the same day.

Syria, Turkey: SDF Commander Says Ocalan's Call for PKK Disbandment 'Not Related to Us'

Abdullah Ocalan, the founder of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, called on the group to lay down arms and end its resistance to the Turkish state in a press conference with the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party, or DEM Party, Al-Monitor reported on Feb. 27.

Turkey: PKK Founder Calls on Group To Lay Down Arms and Dissolve

Mali

Canada

Russia

Economics

Canadian mining company Barrick Gold signed a new agreement to resolve a nearly two-year dispute over its mining operations in Mali, although the junta has yet to approve the deal formally, Reuters reported on Feb. 19. 

Mali: Barrick Gold Claims Agreement With Malian Junta To End Mining Dispute

Ethiopia

Somalia

Ethiopia and Somalia began holding their first round of technical talks over Ethiopia's quest to secure maritime access through Somalia in Turkey, Addis Standard reported on Feb. 18.

Ethiopia, Somalia: Governments Begin Technical Talks Over Maritime Access 

Assessments

United States

China

Europe

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Georgia

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev (4th from left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (5th from left) attend a meeting in Moscow on April 22, 2024. 

Russia's influence in the South Caucasus is set to decline in the years ahead as countries adjust their foreign policies to balance global and regional powers, creating opportunities for China, Turkey and the West.

The Coming South Caucasus Realignment

Iraq

Syrian Kurds wave independence-era flags in support of the U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces on Dec. 19, 2024, in the northeastern Syrian city of Qamishli.

A rapprochement would boost the odds of Turkish constitutional reform needed to give Erdogan another term, while its failure could presage regionwide violence.

Hints Emerge of a Turkish-Kurdish Thaw

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan welcomes his Syrian counterpart Asaad Al-Shaibani before attending an Arab officials' meeting in Riyadh on Jan. 12, 2025.

Saudi Arabia's re-engagement with Lebanon, Syria and Iraq aims to counterbalance Turkey, Qatar and Iran but faces limits due to sectarian politics and foreign interference, which may make Riyadh more assertive over time.

Saudi Arabia Moves To Counterbalance Turkey and Qatar, Replace Iran in the Levant

Fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stand atop a humvee in Syria's northeastern Hasakah province during a joint military exercise with the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State on Sept. 7, 2022.

The threat of a Turkish offensive and decreasing U.S. aid will increasingly pressure the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces to reach a deal with Syria's new government. 

The Uncertain Future of U.S.-Backed Kurds in Syria

Columns

On Geopolitics

Syria’s de-facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa addresses a crowd at a mosque in Damascus on Dec. 8, 2024.

While Syrians will drive their country's destiny, external influence from regional and global powers could determine what kind of government replaces the deposed Assad regime.

Syria's Future: Islamist Republic, Turkish Client State, or Jihadist Stronghold?

Angola

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

Argentina

Brazil

Ecuador

Mexico

Algeria

Jordan

Kuwait

Tunisia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Taiwan

Ukraine

Belarus

Pakistan

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Cyber

Energy

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

Abu Mohammed al-Golani (C), the head of Syria's leading insurgent group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, speaks during a press conference near Syria's northern Bab al Hawa border crossing with Turkey late on March 12, 2024.

Rival Gulf Arab states will pursue divergent goals amid Syria's evolving political transition, raising the likelihood of factionalism and resurging violence in the war-torn country. 

Gulf States' Competing Interests Could Disrupt Syria's Political Transition

Palestinian Territories

North Korea

As 2025 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five events as measured by geopolitical impact.

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Elections

Science & Technology

2024: A Geopolitical Review

Media

Podcasts

What can Trump's nominees for positions in Middle Eastern diplomacy tell us about his approach to the region?

Essential Geopolitics: U.S.-Middle East Relations Under a Second Trump Term

Israeli tanks and armored vehicles line up the area outside the Druze village of Majdal Shams on the fence with the buffer zone that separates the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights from the rest of Syria on Dec. 9, 2024.

Israel's efforts to mitigate threats from war-torn Syria will risk triggering domestic and international blowback, and opening the door to a proxy conflict with Turkey.

Israel Expands Its Presence in Post-Assad Syria 

A man carries a Turkish national flag as Turkey-backed Syrian fighters gather along the frontlines opposite Kurdish forces near the town of Dadat in Syria's northern Aleppo province, on July 5, 2022. 

Turkey will seek to exert its influence over Syria's new leaders to prevent Kurdish autonomy, promote Turkish business interests and facilitate the return of refugees.

Turkey Is Poised to Reap the Benefits of a New Order in Syria

An illustration of the Ethiopian and Somali flags.

The countries’ commitment to negotiate maritime access reduces immediate conflict risks and could enable Ethiopia to secure leasing rights at Somali ports, but tensions will likely resurge if the two sides fail to finalize a deal.

Ethiopia and Somalia Crack Open the Door To Compromise on Maritime Access

<p>The Republic of Turkey straddles Europe and Asia, forming a land bridge that links the Levant, Iran and the Caucasus with Southeastern Europe. In stark contrast to its predecessor, the Ottoman Empire, modern Turkey is confined largely to the semi-arid, mountainous terrain of the Anatolian Peninsula and the capital-rich lands surrounding the Sea of Marmara. This low-lying region contains the large cities of Istanbul and Izmir and the two chokepoints linking the Black Sea to the Mediterranean &mdash; the Bosporus and the Dardanelles. This area is the core of Turkey&#39;s population and economy. Turkey&rsquo;s geographic challenge is expanding the economic stability and development of this core into the eastern region of the country. Anatolia&rsquo;s rugged geography and mountainous terrain make economic and infrastructure development difficult, but has historically helped to prevent land invasions from the east and south. Modern Turkey is working to integrate this largely rural, poorer hinterland into the political and economic mainstream in an attempt to link its current Islamist government to its neighbors in the broader Middle East. However, significant challenges remain. Turkey has fought a decades-long Kurdish insurgency in its southeastern regions, where the Taurus Mountains and the Eastern Anatolian plateau give sanctuary to Kurdish separatist militants. Turkey&rsquo;s position at the crossroads between East and West provides the country with several geopolitical possibilities. The country is working to serve as a transit state linking the exports of its energy-rich eastern neighbors to consumer markets in Europe. Its location also invites a series of constraints, as reflected by Turkey&rsquo;s position surrounded by Europe&rsquo;s economic decline, Iranian ambitions in Syria and Iraq, and Russian interests in the Caucasus.</p>

Turkey's Resurgence

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

SITUATION REPORTS

Syria: Mass Killings in Latakia Strain Provisional Transition

Syria: Provisional Government Faces Down Alawite Uprising in Latakia

Syria, Israel: Israeli Raids Spark Resistance as Provisional Government Battles Assadists

Turkey: PKK Declares Ceasefire

Syria, Turkey: SDF Commander Says Ocalan's Call for PKK Disbandment 'Not Related to Us'

Turkey: PKK Founder Calls on Group To Lay Down Arms and Dissolve

Mali: Barrick Gold Claims Agreement With Malian Junta To End Mining Dispute

Ethiopia, Somalia: Governments Begin Technical Talks Over Maritime Access

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