2020 Second-Quarter Forecast

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. 

South Asia

<p>Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region&rsquo;s great population centers. India is the region&rsquo;s dominant country, home to the world&rsquo;s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world&rsquo;s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.</p>

2020 Annual Forecast

2019 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

Assessments

China

Bangladesh

Bhutan

India

Maldives

Nepal

Sri Lanka

India is beating a path to its neighbors in an effort to ensure China doesn't muscle in on New Delhi's backyard.

India's Own Worst Enemy

Shoring up New Delhi's influence around South Asia is top on Narendra Modi's to-do list. Achieving success, however, will depend on fending off China and its Belt and Road Initiative.

Wary of China, Modi Courts India's Neighbors

The New Silk Road

2019 Third-Quarter Forecast

Pakistan

With China ready to open the purse strings, the days when India could dominate South Asia exclusively are long gone.

New Delhi is eager to maintain its dominance over the smaller states of the subcontinent, but it'll have a hard time competing with Chinese money.

Why the Belt and Road Fuels India's Fears of Encirclement

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

2019 Second-Quarter Forecast

2019 Annual Forecast

Mauritius

Seychelles

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, left, will be preoccupied with elections in 2019 and Chinese President Xi Jinping with the United States, but each will continue his country's competition for advantage across South Asia and the Indian Ocean.

China in Transition

Beijing's economic and military expansion into South Asia challenges New Delhi's ability to maintain its influence over its neighbors.

India Guards Against China's Encroaching Shadow

Snapshots

India and China will maneuver for influence with the new government in the tiny Himalayan nation.

Bhutan: Center-Left Party Scores Big Win in Country's 3rd Parliamentary Election

2018 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

2018 Second-Quarter Forecast

Economics

Representatives from India, Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan met in Delhi, India, from March 7-8, and the Indian, Bangladeshi and Nepalese representatives finalized a memorandum of understanding to implement the group's Motor Vehicle Agreement (MVA) pending approval from Bhutan, The Economic Times reported March 8.

India, Bangladesh, Nepal: Countries Move Ahead With Agreement to Boost Regional Connectivity

Politics

Military & Security

Beijing has built more than 200 buildings and roads along Bhutan's disputed border near India's strategic Siliguri Corridor, Reuters reported Jan. 12.

China, Bhutan, India: Beijing Ramps Up Construction in Disputed Border Areas

Security

In a virtual meeting of expert groups, China and Bhutan signed a memorandum of understanding that offers a three-step plan to expedite the countries’ border negotiations, South China Morning Post reported Oct. 15. 

China, Bhutan: Memorandum of Understanding Signed to Expedite Border Negotiations

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit the Maldives and Sri Lanka on his first trip abroad since securing re-election, signaling a clear focus by the Indian government on regional outreach against the backdrop of China's infrastructural push into South Asia.

India: Modi Trip Showcases New Delhi's Regional Push

China has reportedly been increasing construction activity just 2 kilometers (roughly 1.2 miles) from Bhutan's disputed Doklam Plateau, according to satellite imagery, The Print reported April 2.

China, India: Beijing Reportedly Steps up Construction Near Doklam Plateau

The Druk Nyamrup Tshogpa (DNT) party won a decisive victory over the Druk Phuensum Tshogpa (DPT) party in Bhutanese elections on Oct. 18, Channel News Asia reported Oct. 19.

Bhutan: Election Results Roll In

Bhutan's ruling party has been eliminated in the first round of the country's national elections, The Straits Times reported Sept. 17.

Bhutan: Ruling Party Defeated in First Round of Elections

A Border Dispute on Top of the World

Following a coordinated temporary withdrawal from the Doklam Plateau, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has fortified its presence there, while quietly advancing into the western Duktegang region of Bhutan, India Today reported Sept. 28.

India, China: Chinese Troops Fortify Position In Doklam Region, Despite Negotiated Withdrawal

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A view of the Register in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

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Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

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Mongolia

Bhutan is a small, landlocked kingdom in South Asia. The Himalayan country was never formally colonized and, in the late 20th century, its history of isolationism began to give way to a gradual democratization which culminated in the creation of a multiparty democracy in 2008. Currently, Bhutan is a constitutional monarchy with the House of Wangchuck inhabiting the throne. Sitting on the ancient Silk Road, it borders Tibet to the north and northwest and India to the southwest, south and east. Spanning an area of 38,394 square kilometers (14,824 square miles), the majority Buddhist country is made up of three major ethnic groups, including the Bhutia, the Sharchop and the Nepalese.    Bhutan has a remarkably diverse topography. In the south, its grassy, humid and forested Duars plains define the country's border with the Indian states of Assam and West Bengal. North of the plains, the terrain increases in elevation to form the lesser Himalayas which contain fertile valleys such as the Paro and Thimpu. Even further north, the land continues its upward slope until it culminates in the lofty peaks of the Himalayas which straddle the country's poorly demarcated border with China.    Bhutan's geographic challenge as a small nation is to maintain its sovereignty in its territory squeezed between India and China. India views Bhutan as vital to its strategic defense and has historically served as Bhutan's dominant political, economic and security partner. China, on the other hand, has an ongoing border dispute with Bhutan. The 269 square kilometers of disputed territory crucially include the Doklam Plateau, which overlooks the Chumbi Valley and Beijing wants to possess to redress its military disadvantage against India in the region. India, which has its own border dispute with China, aims to prevent Beijing from resolving the dispute in its favor.

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SITUATION REPORTS

India, Bangladesh, Nepal: Countries Move Ahead With Agreement to Boost Regional Connectivity

China, Bhutan, India: Beijing Ramps Up Construction in Disputed Border Areas

China, Bhutan: Memorandum of Understanding Signed to Expedite Border Negotiations

India: Modi Trip Showcases New Delhi's Regional Push

China, India: Beijing Reportedly Steps up Construction Near Doklam Plateau

Bhutan: Election Results Roll In

Bhutan: Ruling Party Defeated in First Round of Elections

India, China: Chinese Troops Fortify Position In Doklam Region, Despite Negotiated Withdrawal

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