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A French army patrol in November 2019 in northern Burkina Faso. A French military withdrawal will likely accelerate the spread of the jihadist insurgencies already running rampant in Burkina Faso, worsening regional economies and security.

Military & Security

Politics

A French departure will likely accelerate the spread of the jihadist insurgencies already running rampant in Burkina Faso, worsening regional economies and security.

Burkina Faso's Government Demands a French Military Withdrawal

The new self-proclaimed leader of the military junta ruling Burkina Faso, Captain Ibrahim Traore (C), on Oct. 2, 2022, in the Burkinabe capital of Ouagadougou. Burkina Faso's new military junta is unlikely to curb rising insecurity, while fraying ties with France could worsen the regional threat of jihadism.

Burkina Faso's new military junta is unlikely to curb rising insecurity, while fraying ties with France could worsen the regional threat of jihadism.

Burkina Faso's Second Coup in Nine Months Bodes Ill for Regional Security

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Mali

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A British soldier leaves the Hombori area aboard a Chinook helicopter on March 28, 2019 during the start of the French Barkhane Force operation in Mali's Gourma region. Countries in the region are embracing a military-led counterterrorism approach that will struggle in the face of various governance, economic and coordination challenges.

Countries in the region are embracing a military-led counterterrorism approach that will struggle in the face of various governance, economic and coordination challenges.

How Coastal West Africa Is Responding to an Expanding Jihadist Threat

Assessments

Chad

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Niger

French soldiers patrol the streets of Gao, Mali, on Dec. 4, 2021. 

France’s updated military posture in the African region focuses on supporting national armies, especially Niger’s. But this is unlikely to offset the impact of Paris’ withdrawal from Mali. 

France’s New Approach to the Sahel: Preparing for Sustained Regional Instability

Ghana

Guinea

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China

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Members of the Constitutional Convention pose for a picture during the official presentation of the draft they made of the new constitution on May 16, 2022, at the Ruinas de Huanchaca National Monument in Antofagasta, Chile.

Energy

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Chilean Constitution Is Unveiled, an ECOWAS Summit

French soldiers patrol the streets in a village located in Mali’s Gao region on Dec. 4, 2021. 

The Jihadist Wars

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

An abrupt exit of French troops from the African country and the wider region remains unlikely, though it can’t be ruled out.

What France and Mali’s Fraying Relationship Means for the Sahel’s Security 

Security

On Geopolitics

Guinea Bissau

Demonstrators in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, hold up photos of Malian coup leader Assimi Goita (who seized power in Mali for the second time in a May 2021 coup) and Burkina Faso coup leader Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba on Jan. 25, 2022.

Niger may soon join the wave of military takeovers, but that risk has more to do with what’s happening within the country's borders.

Putting West Africa’s ‘Coup Contagion’ in Context

Old Leaders in a New Africa

Media

Podcasts

After a wave of coups, both successful and failed, in West African nations, is it safe to say democracy is under attack?

Essential Geopolitics: Why So Many Coups in West Africa?

Sub-Saharan Africa

A photo of Lt. Col. Paul Henri Sandaogo Damiba, leader of Burkina Faso’s recent military coup, is seen on the front page of a newspaper in Ouagadougou on Jan. 25, 2022. 

Economics

The military takeover risks further eroding the security situation in the country’s north and triggering international sanctions that would damage its trade-reliant economy. 

A Coup in Burkina Faso Hands West Africa Its Latest Crisis

Somalia

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A British soldier leaves the Hombori area aboard a Chinook helicopter on March 28, 2019, during the start of the French Barkhane Force operation in Mali's Gourma region. In the short term, the Taliban victory will provide a significant propaganda victory for global jihadist groups; the long-term outlook for global jihadism is much less certain. 

War, Insurgency & Terrorism

The War in Afghanistan

In the short term, the Taliban victory will provide a significant propaganda victory for global jihadist groups; the long-term outlook for global jihadism is much less certain.

Jihadist Terrorism After the Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan

The Fight Against the Islamic State

French soldiers monitor an area along Burkina Faso’s border with Mali and Niger on Nov. 10, 2019. 

France's failure to stabilize the region will make it difficult to reduce its counterterrorism operations without triggering more violence.

In the Sahel, a French Exit Will Be Easier Said Than Done

Divided EU Foreign Policies

By complicating French-led military operations, the overthrow of Mali's president risks creating more space jihadist activity in the country and the wider Sahel region of sub-Saharan Africa. 

In Mali, a Coup at the Core of the Sahel's Counterterrorism Fight

Russian paramilitary organization Wagner Group has deployed troops to Burkina Faso, according to a new batch of leaked U.S. intelligence documents, Tortoise Media reported on April 13.

Burkina Faso: U.S. Intelligence Leak Indicates Wagner Troops Already In-Country

French military operations have officially ended in Burkina Faso, according to Burkinabe armed forces, Reuters reported Feb. 19.

Burkina Faso: France Officially Ends Military Operations

France will withdraw its troops from Burkina Faso in the next 30 days in accordance with Burkinabe demands, Reuters reported Jan. 25, citing an announcement made by the French Foreign Ministry.

Burkina Faso: French Foreign Ministry Confirms Troop Withdrawal 

Burkina Faso's government demanded the departure of French troops from the country by the end of February, according to the Burkina Information Agency, Reuters reported Jan. 22. 

Burkina Faso: Government Demands Withdrawal of French Troops

Burkina Faso’s military government expelled French Ambassador Luc Hallade, AP reported on Jan. 2. 

Burkina Faso: Government Expels French Ambassador 

The Burkinabe government summoned the country's Ghanaian ambassador after Ghana's President Nana Akufo-Addo alleged on Dec. 13 that Burkina Faso hired the Russian mercenary Wagner Group, Reuters reported Dec. 15.

Burkina Faso: Junta Summons Ghanaian Ambassador Over Russian Paramilitary Allegations

Burkina Faso's military junta does not plan to hire paramilitary troops from the Russian Wagner Group to fight jihadist insurgents, according to U.S. Under Secretary for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland, Reuters reported Oct. 26.

Burkina Faso: U.S. Says Junta Will Not Hire Russian Paramilitary Wager Group

Ibrahim Traore, a captain in Burkina Faso's army, announced that he and a group of military officers had overthrown transitional President Paul Henri Sandaogo Damiba for failing to address the country's security crisis, Reuters reported Sept. 30.

Burkina Faso: Army Captain Overthrows Interim President in Second Coup This Year

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Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

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A Dec. 5, 2021, photo shows Timbuktu Airport, which jihadists attacked in 2013. In virtually all plausible scenarios, the security environment in the Western Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger) will remain volatile with high levels of violence through the end of 2024.

SITUATION REPORTS

Burkina Faso: U.S. Intelligence Leak Indicates Wagner Troops Already In-Country

Burkina Faso: France Officially Ends Military Operations

Burkina Faso: French Foreign Ministry Confirms Troop Withdrawal

Burkina Faso: Government Demands Withdrawal of French Troops

Burkina Faso: Government Expels French Ambassador

Burkina Faso: Junta Summons Ghanaian Ambassador Over Russian Paramilitary Allegations

Burkina Faso: U.S. Says Junta Will Not Hire Russian Paramilitary Wager Group

Burkina Faso: Army Captain Overthrows Interim President in Second Coup This Year

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