Burkina Faso

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Military & Security

Al Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, killed at least 12 Togolese soldiers at a military outpost near the locality of Kpekankandi in Togo's northern Savanes region, LSI Africa reported on July 21.

Togo: Al Qaeda Affiliate Launches Large-Scale Attack on Northern Military Outpost 

Politics

Social Issues

Burkina Faso's military junta adopted an amended family code that prohibits and punishes homosexuality, Reuters reported on July 11.

Burkina Faso: Junta Adopts Draft Law To Criminalize Homosexuality

Benin

Cote d'Ivoire

Mali

Niger

France

Economics

Burkinabe junta leader Ibrahim Traore accused Cote d'Ivoire and Benin of attempting to destabilize Burkina Faso in coordination with France, Le Monde reported on July 11.

West Africa: Burkina Faso Accuses Cote d’Ivoire and Benin of Destabilization Attempts

Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso signed a trilateral treaty establishing the Confederation of Sahelian States, or CSS, on July 6, Radio France Internationale reported on July 8.

West Africa: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso Sign Confederation Treaty, Confirm Departure From ECOWAS 

Burkina Faso's junta-controlled national conference on the transition adopted a new charter extending military rule until July 2029, the Financial Times reported on May 26. 

Burkina Faso: Junta Extends Military Rule Until 2029

Energy

Turkish private military company SADAT entered talks with an unnamed Sahelian state to strengthen the security of the country's presidential palace, Radio France Internationale reported on May 21.

Sahel: Turkish Private Military Company SADAT Expanding Operations in the Sahel

Human Rights Watch found that Burkinabe security forces had executed over 220 civilians in three villages located in the country's northern Yatenga province over their alleged collaboration with jihadist militants on Feb. 25, Reuters reported on April 25.

Burkina Faso: Human Rights Watch Finds Military Executed Over 220 Civilians 

Burkina Faso's junta on March 27 extended stringent anti-insurgent emergency measures for another 12 months, BBC reported the following day. 

Burkina Faso: Junta Extends Emergency Measures for Another Year

Assessments

Sub-Saharan Africa

A staff member walks past a stage before a press conference at the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria, on Feb. 27, 2023. 

The exit will worsen all three countries' economic outlook, especially if they decide to also leave the West African Economic and Monetary Union, which would likely fuel jihadist activity in the Sahel.

What Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso's Exit From ECOWAS Means for West Africa

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In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Media

Graphics

A general view of a military crest of the French army in Niamey, Niger, on July 15, 2022.

French and U.N. troop withdrawals from the Sahel will open the door to jihadist attacks and external actors.

The Sahel's Security Environment Amid French and U.N. Troop Withdrawals

Snapshots

Central African Republic

Gabon

Protesters in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, wave Russian and Burkinabe flags on Oct. 4, 2022. 

Cyber

Many of the drivers that led to the recent coups in the Sahel are present in other African countries, granting Russian-sponsored influence operations more inroads.

Africa's Instability Creates Fertile Ground for Russian Disinformation

Ibrahim Traore, Burkina Faso's interim president, attends a ceremony in Ouagadougou on Oct. 15, 2022.

The junta's failure to maintain stability and resolve underlying grievances will raise the risk of future coups and provide possible inroads for more Russian influence.

What an Alleged Coup Attempt Means for Burkina Faso's Stability

Cameroon

Chad

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Equatorial Guinea

Republic of the Congo

People holding Gabon national flags celebrate in Libreville on August 30, 2023, after a group of military officers announced they were ''putting an end'' to President Ali Bongo Ondimba's regime. 

Rampant insecurity could precipitate the collapse of more Sahelian governments, while succession crises and patronage politics could do the same for Central Africa's dynastic leaders.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 1: The Sahel and Central Africa

Nigeria

French soldiers of the Barkhane force patrol the streets of Timbuktu, Mali, on Dec. 5, 2021.

In the wake of Niger's coup, France will be compelled to revamp its security strategy in the Sahel and West Africa at large.

What the Niger Crisis Means for France's Counterterrorism Strategy in Africa

Senegal

United States

Protesters hold placards denouncing ECOWAS on Aug. 3, 2023, in Niamey, Niger. While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

How Might an ECOWAS Military Intervention Take Shape in Niger?

Sudan

Libya

Belarus

Smoke billows north of the Khartoum Bahri district on July 17, 2023, as fighting continues in war-torn Sudan.

The Wagner Group's failed mutiny in Russia could facilitate its expansion in Africa, potentially including increased support of military rule in the Sahel and heightened involvement in Sudan and Libya's civil wars. 

The Wagner Group's 'New Path' in Africa

A French army patrol in November 2019 in northern Burkina Faso. A French military withdrawal will likely accelerate the spread of the jihadist insurgencies already running rampant in Burkina Faso, worsening regional economies and security.

A French departure will likely accelerate the spread of the jihadist insurgencies already running rampant in Burkina Faso, worsening regional economies and security.

Burkina Faso's Government Demands a French Military Withdrawal

The new self-proclaimed leader of the military junta ruling Burkina Faso, Captain Ibrahim Traore (C), on Oct. 2, 2022, in the Burkinabe capital of Ouagadougou. Burkina Faso's new military junta is unlikely to curb rising insecurity, while fraying ties with France could worsen the regional threat of jihadism.

Burkina Faso's new military junta is unlikely to curb rising insecurity, while fraying ties with France could worsen the regional threat of jihadism.

Burkina Faso's Second Coup in Nine Months Bodes Ill for Regional Security

On Security

A British soldier leaves the Hombori area aboard a Chinook helicopter on March 28, 2019 during the start of the French Barkhane Force operation in Mali's Gourma region. Countries in the region are embracing a military-led counterterrorism approach that will struggle in the face of various governance, economic and coordination challenges.

Countries in the region are embracing a military-led counterterrorism approach that will struggle in the face of various governance, economic and coordination challenges.

How Coastal West Africa Is Responding to an Expanding Jihadist Threat

SITUATION REPORTS

Togo: Al Qaeda Affiliate Launches Large-Scale Attack on Northern Military Outpost

Burkina Faso: Junta Adopts Draft Law To Criminalize Homosexuality

West Africa: Burkina Faso Accuses Cote d’Ivoire and Benin of Destabilization Attempts

West Africa: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso Sign Confederation Treaty, Confirm Departure From ECOWAS

Burkina Faso: Junta Extends Military Rule Until 2029

Sahel: Turkish Private Military Company SADAT Expanding Operations in the Sahel

Burkina Faso: Human Rights Watch Finds Military Executed Over 220 Civilians

Burkina Faso: Junta Extends Emergency Measures for Another Year

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