Mali

Algeria

Morocco

Military & Security

Politics

Clashes erupted on July 25 between the Malian army, supported by Russian Africa Corps mercenaries, and Tuareg rebel groups in the northern Kidal region, Jeune Afrique reported on July 26.

Mali: Security Forces Clash With Tuareg Rebels Near Algerian Border

Benin

Burkina Faso

Cote d'Ivoire

Niger

France

Economics

Burkinabe junta leader Ibrahim Traore accused Cote d'Ivoire and Benin of attempting to destabilize Burkina Faso in coordination with France, Le Monde reported on July 11.

West Africa: Burkina Faso Accuses Cote d’Ivoire and Benin of Destabilization Attempts

Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso signed a trilateral treaty establishing the Confederation of Sahelian States, or CSS, on July 6, Radio France Internationale reported on July 8.

West Africa: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso Sign Confederation Treaty, Confirm Departure From ECOWAS 

Turkey

Energy

Turkish private military company SADAT entered talks with an unnamed Sahelian state to strengthen the security of the country's presidential palace, Radio France Internationale reported on May 21.

Sahel: Turkish Private Military Company SADAT Expanding Operations in the Sahel

Mali's northern Tuareg rebel leaders announced the dissolution of the Permanent Strategic Framework for Peace, Security and Development, as well as their intention to reunite under a new alliance with groups at war against the Malian junta and its Wagner auxiliaries, Radio France Internationale reported on April 26.

Mali: Tuareg Rebels Dissolve Coalition, Form Alliance With Groups 'Against' Junta and Wagner

Mauritania

Senegal

Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye met with Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani in his first state visit since being inaugurated on April 2, Radio France Internationale reported on April 19.

Senegal: Faye Conducts First Visit to Mauritania, Discusses Energy Projects

Mali's junta leader Col. Assimi Goita on April 15 ordered the creation of a rapid intervention force within the army, L'Essor reported on April 17.

Mali: Junta Creates Rapid Intervention Force

Mali's junta issued a decree indefinitely halting all political party activities for political and security reasons, Radio France Internationale reported on April 11.

Mali: Junta Indefinitely Bans Political Activity, Citing Security Concerns

Assessments

Sub-Saharan Africa

A staff member walks past a stage before a press conference at the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria, on Feb. 27, 2023. 

The exit will worsen all three countries' economic outlook, especially if they decide to also leave the West African Economic and Monetary Union, which would likely fuel jihadist activity in the Sahel.

What Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso's Exit From ECOWAS Means for West Africa

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China

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Russia

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India

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In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Media

Graphics

A general view of a military crest of the French army in Niamey, Niger, on July 15, 2022.

French and U.N. troop withdrawals from the Sahel will open the door to jihadist attacks and external actors.

The Sahel's Security Environment Amid French and U.N. Troop Withdrawals

Snapshots

Central African Republic

Gabon

Protesters in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, wave Russian and Burkinabe flags on Oct. 4, 2022. 

Cyber

Many of the drivers that led to the recent coups in the Sahel are present in other African countries, granting Russian-sponsored influence operations more inroads.

Africa's Instability Creates Fertile Ground for Russian Disinformation

Cameroon

Chad

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Equatorial Guinea

Republic of the Congo

People holding Gabon national flags celebrate in Libreville on August 30, 2023, after a group of military officers announced they were ''putting an end'' to President Ali Bongo Ondimba's regime. 

Rampant insecurity could precipitate the collapse of more Sahelian governments, while succession crises and patronage politics could do the same for Central Africa's dynastic leaders.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 1: The Sahel and Central Africa

Nigeria

Togo

French soldiers of the Barkhane force patrol the streets of Timbuktu, Mali, on Dec. 5, 2021.

In the wake of Niger's coup, France will be compelled to revamp its security strategy in the Sahel and West Africa at large.

What the Niger Crisis Means for France's Counterterrorism Strategy in Africa

United States

Protesters hold placards denouncing ECOWAS on Aug. 3, 2023, in Niamey, Niger. While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

How Might an ECOWAS Military Intervention Take Shape in Niger?

Sudan

Libya

Belarus

Smoke billows north of the Khartoum Bahri district on July 17, 2023, as fighting continues in war-torn Sudan.

The Wagner Group's failed mutiny in Russia could facilitate its expansion in Africa, potentially including increased support of military rule in the Sahel and heightened involvement in Sudan and Libya's civil wars. 

The Wagner Group's 'New Path' in Africa

Australia

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attends the 28th term deputies' oath-taking ceremony at the Turkish Grand National Assembly on June 2, 2023, in Ankara. Speculation is rife that former Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek will be appointed head of the Turkish Treasury in a move likely to delight international investors.

U.S.-China Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Possible Economic Shift in Turkey, the Shangri-La Dialogue

Fighters aligned with the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) patrol a street in Kidal, northern Mali, on Aug. 28, 2022. 

The al-Qaeda-linked JNIM's non-aggression pact with other armed groups highlights its political power as Bamako scrambles to preserve what little control over the country it has left.

In Mali, Jihadists and Separatists Forge a Pact to Counter the Islamic State

South Sudan

Burundi

Ethiopia

Kenya

Mozambique

Tanzania

Zimbabwe

Women sit under U.N.-branded cardboard boxes in Semera, Ethiopia, on Feb. 14, 2022, as they wait to be registered by the authorities at a hotel compound hosting civilians fleeing violence. 

Social Issues

GBV is often primarily seen as a women’s and human rights issue. But in sub-Saharan Africa, it is also a key constraint to stable (and democratic) governance, economic growth, and lasting peace.

The Geopolitics of Gender-Based Violence in Africa

British Prime Minister Liz Truss on Oct. 14, 2022, at 10 Downing Street in London.

The Weekly Rundown: A Volatile Week in the U.K. and France, China's 20th Party Congress

<p>Mali&#39;s borders were created in 1960 from the division of colonial French West Africa. The country encompasses two geographically distinct regions. These two regions &mdash;&nbsp;defined by the fertile, densely populated southern savannas and the arid, sparse northern Sahara &mdash;&nbsp;are largely separated by the Niger River, which also serves as the historic lifeline of Malian commerce. These regions have independent geopolitical cores. The southern core is the Bambara agricultural triangle that includes Bamako &mdash;&nbsp;the nation&#39;s capital. It&#39;s home to the Bambara people who share ethnic ties with Mali&#39;s southern neighbors: Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Guinea and Senegal. The northern core is found at the southern end of the Hoggar Mountains and is home to the nomadic Tuareg &mdash; a Berber people with ties to populations in Niger, Mauritania and Algeria. Projecting political authority over both distinct regions is Mali&#39;s primary geographic challenge. The two largest cities in the north &mdash;&nbsp;Timbuktu and Gao &mdash; are on the Niger River and once served as major trading outposts between the two cores. Over the centuries, the establishment of sea routes by Europeans lessened the role of the Tuareg and these cities. Subsequently, the Tuareg Islamic sphere of influence has diminished, and the Saharan trade routes that once transferred salt, gold, ivory and slaves deteriorated. Today, Mali is one of the world&#39;s poorest countries. Its economy is based on agriculture, particularly cotton, livestock and gold mining. As the country&#39;s 2012 coup demonstrates, Bamako faces considerable challenges projecting domestic power from the extreme southwest of the country into the vast stretches of Mali&#39;s Saharan desert.</p>

The Jihadist Wars

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

Mali: Security Forces Clash With Tuareg Rebels Near Algerian Border

West Africa: Burkina Faso Accuses Cote d’Ivoire and Benin of Destabilization Attempts

West Africa: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso Sign Confederation Treaty, Confirm Departure From ECOWAS

Sahel: Turkish Private Military Company SADAT Expanding Operations in the Sahel

Mali: Tuareg Rebels Dissolve Coalition, Form Alliance With Groups 'Against' Junta and Wagner

Senegal: Faye Conducts First Visit to Mauritania, Discusses Energy Projects

Mali: Junta Creates Rapid Intervention Force

Mali: Junta Indefinitely Bans Political Activity, Citing Security Concerns

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