Benin

Burkina Faso

Cote d'Ivoire

Mali

Niger

Togo

Military & Security

Amadou Koufa, the leader of the Katiba Macina group within al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), said that the group intends to expand its attacks and territorial control beyond its current focus on Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger towards the littoral states along the Gulf of Guinea, according to email correspondence with a France24 journalist published Oct. 23.

Sahel: Top JNIM Leader Pledges to Expand into Littoral West African States

Algeria

An attack targeting Nigerien security forces in the northern town of Assamaka resulted in seven fatalities and five injuries, Afrique sur 7 reported on Oct. 20.

Niger: Attack on Town Near Algerian Border Kills Seven

Russia

Politics

A column of armed vehicles from the Malian army and Russia's paramilitary Wagner Group turned back without a fight from an operation against the northern town of Tinzaouaten, which is held by Tuareg rebels of the Permanent Strategic Framework for the Defense of the People of Azawad, or CSP-DPA, Jeune Afrique reported on Oct. 10.

Mali: Pro-Government Military Operation Turns Back From Tinzaouaten

The Sept. 17 attack by militants of al Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, on Mali's capital Bamako caused the death of at least 77 people and wounded over 255 others, France 24 reported on Sept. 19, quoting security sources. 

Mali: Over 70 Killed, 250 Wounded in Al Qaeda Affiliate Attack on Bamako

Al Qaeda-affiliated group Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, claimed responsibility for attacks on the Faladie military camp and a military base at the Modibo Keita International Airport (also known as Bamako-Senou International Airport), Reuters reported on Sept. 17.

Mali: Jihadists Target Military Camp and Other Sites in Capital

Chad

Nigeria

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Floods across Western and Central Africa caused by unusually high rainfall have displaced at least 4 million people since late August, including at least 2.9 million people in Nigeria, Chad, Niger and Mali, Bloomberg reported on Sept. 17.

Nigeria, Sahel: Large-Scale Floods Threaten Harvest as Rains Persists

Tuareg rebels under the Strategic Framework for the Defense of the People of Azawad (CSP-DPA) on Sept. 11 claimed the alliance's first reported use of drones in targeting the Goundam camp in Mali's Timbuktu region, which houses Malian soldiers and Wagner alias Africa Corps forces, French Radio International reported the same day.

Mali: Tuareg Rebels Use Attack Drones in Escalating Conflict

Ukraine

Mali has severed diplomatic relations with Ukraine after a Ukrainian intelligence officer allegedly claimed that Kyiv had provided intelligence that helped Tuareg rebels from the Strategic Framework for the Defense of the People of Azawad (CSP-DPA) deal a blow to Malian and Russian forces near the northern Malian town on Tinzaouaten in late July, Radio France International reported Aug. 5.

Mali: Country Cuts Ties With Ukraine Over Kyiv's Alleged Support to Tuareg Rebels 

Assessments

Sub-Saharan Africa

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Kenya

Sudan

Middle East and North Africa

Libya

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Burkina Faso's junta leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore during a welcoming ceremony at the second Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on July 27, 2023.

Competition against the West will fuel Russia's outreach to Africa, but jihadist expansion in the Sahel will eventually force Moscow into tough policy decisions.

What the Future Holds for Russia in Africa

Mauritania

The Geopolitics of Water

Environmental conditions in the Sahel are likely to worsen due to desertification, rapid population growth and political instability. 

The Geopolitics of Water: The Role of Desertification in Conflict in the Sahel

A staff member walks past a stage before a press conference at the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria, on Feb. 27, 2023. 

The exit will worsen all three countries' economic outlook, especially if they decide to also leave the West African Economic and Monetary Union, which would likely fuel jihadist activity in the Sahel.

What Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso's Exit From ECOWAS Means for West Africa

Columns

On Geopolitics

South Africa

Argentina

Mexico

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Turkey

Hong Kong SAR, China

China

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United Kingdom

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Bangladesh

India

Pakistan

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Media

Graphics

A general view of a military crest of the French army in Niamey, Niger, on July 15, 2022.

French and U.N. troop withdrawals from the Sahel will open the door to jihadist attacks and external actors.

The Sahel's Security Environment Amid French and U.N. Troop Withdrawals

Snapshots

Gabon

Protesters in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, wave Russian and Burkinabe flags on Oct. 4, 2022. 

Cyber

Many of the drivers that led to the recent coups in the Sahel are present in other African countries, granting Russian-sponsored influence operations more inroads.

Africa's Instability Creates Fertile Ground for Russian Disinformation

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Equatorial Guinea

Republic of the Congo

People holding Gabon national flags celebrate in Libreville on August 30, 2023, after a group of military officers announced they were ''putting an end'' to President Ali Bongo Ondimba's regime. 

Rampant insecurity could precipitate the collapse of more Sahelian governments, while succession crises and patronage politics could do the same for Central Africa's dynastic leaders.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 1: The Sahel and Central Africa

French soldiers of the Barkhane force patrol the streets of Timbuktu, Mali, on Dec. 5, 2021.

In the wake of Niger's coup, France will be compelled to revamp its security strategy in the Sahel and West Africa at large.

What the Niger Crisis Means for France's Counterterrorism Strategy in Africa

Senegal

United States

Protesters hold placards denouncing ECOWAS on Aug. 3, 2023, in Niamey, Niger. While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

How Might an ECOWAS Military Intervention Take Shape in Niger?

Belarus

Smoke billows north of the Khartoum Bahri district on July 17, 2023, as fighting continues in war-torn Sudan.

The Wagner Group's failed mutiny in Russia could facilitate its expansion in Africa, potentially including increased support of military rule in the Sahel and heightened involvement in Sudan and Libya's civil wars. 

The Wagner Group's 'New Path' in Africa

Australia

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attends the 28th term deputies' oath-taking ceremony at the Turkish Grand National Assembly on June 2, 2023, in Ankara. Speculation is rife that former Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek will be appointed head of the Turkish Treasury in a move likely to delight international investors.

U.S.-China Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Possible Economic Shift in Turkey, the Shangri-La Dialogue

Fighters aligned with the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) patrol a street in Kidal, northern Mali, on Aug. 28, 2022. 

The al-Qaeda-linked JNIM's non-aggression pact with other armed groups highlights its political power as Bamako scrambles to preserve what little control over the country it has left.

In Mali, Jihadists and Separatists Forge a Pact to Counter the Islamic State

<p>Mali&#39;s borders were created in 1960 from the division of colonial French West Africa. The country encompasses two geographically distinct regions. These two regions &mdash;&nbsp;defined by the fertile, densely populated southern savannas and the arid, sparse northern Sahara &mdash;&nbsp;are largely separated by the Niger River, which also serves as the historic lifeline of Malian commerce. These regions have independent geopolitical cores. The southern core is the Bambara agricultural triangle that includes Bamako &mdash;&nbsp;the nation&#39;s capital. It&#39;s home to the Bambara people who share ethnic ties with Mali&#39;s southern neighbors: Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Guinea and Senegal. The northern core is found at the southern end of the Hoggar Mountains and is home to the nomadic Tuareg &mdash; a Berber people with ties to populations in Niger, Mauritania and Algeria. Projecting political authority over both distinct regions is Mali&#39;s primary geographic challenge. The two largest cities in the north &mdash;&nbsp;Timbuktu and Gao &mdash; are on the Niger River and once served as major trading outposts between the two cores. Over the centuries, the establishment of sea routes by Europeans lessened the role of the Tuareg and these cities. Subsequently, the Tuareg Islamic sphere of influence has diminished, and the Saharan trade routes that once transferred salt, gold, ivory and slaves deteriorated. Today, Mali is one of the world&#39;s poorest countries. Its economy is based on agriculture, particularly cotton, livestock and gold mining. As the country&#39;s 2012 coup demonstrates, Bamako faces considerable challenges projecting domestic power from the extreme southwest of the country into the vast stretches of Mali&#39;s Saharan desert.</p>

The Jihadist Wars

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

Sahel: Top JNIM Leader Pledges to Expand into Littoral West African States

Niger: Attack on Town Near Algerian Border Kills Seven

Mali: Pro-Government Military Operation Turns Back From Tinzaouaten

Mali: Over 70 Killed, 250 Wounded in Al Qaeda Affiliate Attack on Bamako

Mali: Jihadists Target Military Camp and Other Sites in Capital

Nigeria, Sahel: Large-Scale Floods Threaten Harvest as Rains Persists

Mali: Tuareg Rebels Use Attack Drones in Escalating Conflict

Mali: Country Cuts Ties With Ukraine Over Kyiv's Alleged Support to Tuareg Rebels

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