Mali

Military & Security

The Malian army, alongside Russia's Africa Corps, reportedly used cluster munitions for the first time during military operations against jihadist and separatist groups in the country's north, RFI reported May 20.

Mali: Army Reportedly Uses Cluster Bombs for First Time

Economics

Energy

More than a dozen road transport companies have suspended services to Bamako as insecurity intensifies amid a partial blockade imposed by the al Qaeda Sahel affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, Jeune Afrique reported on May 12.

Mali: Road Transport Companies Suspend Operations as JNIM Blockade Deepens Supply Disruptions in Bamako

A Kidal-based military officer of the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front, or FLA, said hostilities "will resume soon," while a spokesperson for the Malian general staff said during an April 6 briefing that the junta is pursuing a "strategy of war," RFI reported on May 7. 

Mali: Tuareg Rebels Say Fighting Will Resume as Army Declares 'Strategy of War'

Politics

Al Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, called on all of Mali's "sincere patriots," including political parties, security forces, religious authorities and traditional chiefs, to "unite our forces in a common front" against the country's ruling junta, the group said in a statement shared by France 24 journalist Wassim Nasr on his X account on April 30.

Mali: JNIM Calls for 'Common Front' Against Junta

In a televised address on the evening of April 28, Malian junta leader Assimi Goita said that the situation was "under control" after al Qaeda affiliate Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, and its allies launched sweeping nationwide attacks over the weekend, Radio France International reported. 

Mali: Goita Says Situation 'Under Control' After JNIM Attacks, Praises Russian, AES Support

Al Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, announced the imposition of a "total blockade" of Bamako amid widespread panic in the Malian capital about the alleged entrance of jihadists in parts of the city, Jeune Afrique reported on April 28. 

Mali: JNIM Announces 'Total Blockade' of Bamako Following Loud Explosions Near Airport

Burkina Faso

Niger

Burkinabe junta leader and president of the Alliance of Sahel States Ibrahim Traore condemned coordinated large-scale attacks by al Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin and the Azawad Liberation Front rebels in neighboring Mali, BBC reported on April 26.

Burkina Faso: Junta Leader Accuses 'Enemies' of Backing Mali Attacks, Announces Reserve Force

In Mali, authorities released more than 100 suspected jihadists linked to the al Qaeda Sahel affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, this week as part of an agreement to secure a temporary truce that paused the jihadist‑imposed fuel embargo, RFI reported on March 22.

Mali: Over 100 Suspected Jihadists Released Amid Truce on Mali Fuel Embargo

Assessments

Sub-Saharan Africa

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Mozambique

Nigeria

Rwanda

Sudan

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Control over critical natural resources is increasingly strengthening armed groups' durability and geographic reach, heightening their physical threats and their ability to create political instability.

Natural Resource Exploitation as an Engine for Insurgency in Sub-Saharan Africa

A digital illustration of Mali’s flag.

Recent attacks by al Qaeda affiliate JNIM pose a significant challenge to the junta's legitimacy, elevating the immediate threat of another military coup and signaling a progressive fragmentation of state authority as the jihadist group expands its reach.

Jihadist Onslaught Puts Mali on the Brink of Spiraling Chaos

Benin

Togo

United States

Structures destroyed in U.S. strikes on jihadist targets in Offa, Nigeria, are seen on Dec. 27, 2025.

New U.S. military action would most likely target jihadist groups, especially in West Africa, but limited strikes in Sudan or the Democratic Republic of the Congo to force belligerents there to de-escalate also cannot be ruled out.

The Outlook for New U.S. Strikes in Africa

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Flight routes.

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Malian trucks carrying fuel are seen waiting to cross the border between Cote d'Ivoire and Mali on Oct. 31, 2025. 

In the likely case that the junta fails to lift the blockade on Bamako by force, rising internal tensions could ultimately fragment the country's security forces, potentially enabling the al Qaeda affiliate JNIM to assert control over the capital.

Mali's Junta Fights for Its Life as Jihadists Tighten Their Noose on Bamako

Algeria

Anti-riot police officers on April 8 in front of the Algerian Embassy in Bamako, Mali. While a full-scale military conflict remains very unlikely, Mali's legal challenge against Algeria ensures that diplomatic and security friction will define the relationship for the foreseeable future.

While a full-scale military conflict remains very unlikely, Mali's legal challenge against Algeria ensures that diplomatic and security friction will define the relationship for the foreseeable future.

Mali's ICJ Case Against Algeria Will Deepen Diplomatic Standoff in the Sahel

Nigerian soldiers from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) drive in pick-ups during training at the Sector 3 MNJTF military base headquarters in Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 5, 2025. 

War, Insurgency & Terrorism

Armed groups will continue to expand across Nigeria as the government struggles with domestic constraints and limits on regional security cooperation.

In Nigeria, Security Forces Struggle To Address Growing Militancy

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Malian counterpart Abdoulaye Diop hold a joint press conference following their meeting in Moscow, Russia, on May 20, 2022. 

While Russian military support to Mali is set to persist, the Sahelian country's security environment will likely continue to deteriorate amid jihadist groups' strong momentum.

What's Next for Mali as Russia's Wagner Group Pulls Out? 

Columns

On Geopolitics

Comoros

Cote d'Ivoire

Djibouti

Gabon

Guinea

Mauritania

Republic of the Congo

Senegal

France

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

A picture released on July 12, 1963, of then-French President Gen. Charles de Gaulle (2L) and Jacques Foccart (L) greeting African, Malagasy and French overseas territories veterans arriving in Paris for French Bastille Day celebrations.

After decades of cultivating tight-knit relationships with francophone African countries, France has effectively ended its forward military presence in West and Central Africa amid shifting political dynamics in both regions, which will weaken its influence on the continent but enable Paris to reallocate resources towards Europe's security.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 1: A New Balance of Power 

Kenya

Middle East and North Africa

Libya

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Burkina Faso's junta leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore during a welcoming ceremony at the second Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on July 27, 2023.

Competition against the West will fuel Russia's outreach to Africa, but jihadist expansion in the Sahel will eventually force Moscow into tough policy decisions.

What the Future Holds for Russia in Africa

The Geopolitics of Water

Environmental conditions in the Sahel are likely to worsen due to desertification, rapid population growth and political instability. 

The Geopolitics of Water: The Role of Desertification in Conflict in the Sahel

<p>Mali&#39;s borders were created in 1960 from the division of colonial French West Africa. The country encompasses two geographically distinct regions. These two regions &mdash;&nbsp;defined by the fertile, densely populated southern savannas and the arid, sparse northern Sahara &mdash;&nbsp;are largely separated by the Niger River, which also serves as the historic lifeline of Malian commerce. These regions have independent geopolitical cores. The southern core is the Bambara agricultural triangle that includes Bamako &mdash;&nbsp;the nation&#39;s capital. It&#39;s home to the Bambara people who share ethnic ties with Mali&#39;s southern neighbors: Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Guinea and Senegal. The northern core is found at the southern end of the Hoggar Mountains and is home to the nomadic Tuareg &mdash; a Berber people with ties to populations in Niger, Mauritania and Algeria. Projecting political authority over both distinct regions is Mali&#39;s primary geographic challenge. The two largest cities in the north &mdash;&nbsp;Timbuktu and Gao &mdash; are on the Niger River and once served as major trading outposts between the two cores. Over the centuries, the establishment of sea routes by Europeans lessened the role of the Tuareg and these cities. Subsequently, the Tuareg Islamic sphere of influence has diminished, and the Saharan trade routes that once transferred salt, gold, ivory and slaves deteriorated. Today, Mali is one of the world&#39;s poorest countries. Its economy is based on agriculture, particularly cotton, livestock and gold mining. As the country&#39;s 2012 coup demonstrates, Bamako faces considerable challenges projecting domestic power from the extreme southwest of the country into the vast stretches of Mali&#39;s Saharan desert.</p>

The Jihadist Wars

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

Mali: Army Reportedly Uses Cluster Bombs for First Time

Mali: Road Transport Companies Suspend Operations as JNIM Blockade Deepens Supply Disruptions in Bamako

Mali: Tuareg Rebels Say Fighting Will Resume as Army Declares 'Strategy of War'

Mali: JNIM Calls for 'Common Front' Against Junta

Mali: Goita Says Situation 'Under Control' After JNIM Attacks, Praises Russian, AES Support

Mali: JNIM Announces 'Total Blockade' of Bamako Following Loud Explosions Near Airport

Burkina Faso: Junta Leader Accuses 'Enemies' of Backing Mali Attacks, Announces Reserve Force

Mali: Over 100 Suspected Jihadists Released Amid Truce on Mali Fuel Embargo

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