Nigeria

Mexico

Kazakhstan

Iraq

United Arab Emirates

Energy

A Crude Recovery

After failing to reach an agreement on extending production cuts at its Nov. 30 meeting, OPEC is meeting again on Dec. 1, followed by a delayed OPEC+ meeting on Dec. 3, Bloomberg has reported. 

Global: OPEC Members Reconvene, Delaying OPEC+ Meeting  

_Energy

China

Philippines

The Oct. 15 Philippine decision to end a six-year moratorium on energy exploration in the Philippine exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea was done unilaterally and was not a joint decision with China, Energy Secretary Alfonso Cusi said Oct. 16, Reuters reported.

China, Philippines: Manila Unilaterally Ends South China Sea Energy Exploration Moratorium

Mozambique

The European Union will provide "logistics for training and technical training in several and specific areas, as well as assistance in addressing humanitarian challenges, including medical services," but has ruled out sending troops, Reuters reported Oct. 15, citing the EU ambassador to Mozambique.

Mozambique: EU Offers Military Assistance in Response to Mozambican Request

Israel

Lebanon

Economics

Military & Security

Lebanese and Israeli delegations met in the southern Lebanese city of Naqoura for U.S.-mediated talks aimed at demarcating the two countries’ disputed maritime borders in the Mediterranean Sea, Al Jazeera reported Oct. 14. 

Lebanon, Israel: Countries Meet to Discuss Disputed Maritime Borders

Security

Israel's Survival Strategy

Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the discovery of large natural gas reserves in the Tuna-1 sector of the western Black Sea, which he said Turkey aims to develop by 2023, Bloomberg reported Aug. 21. 

Turkey: Erdogan Unveils Details of Natural Gas Discovery in Black Sea

Turkey's Resurgence

Environment, Science & Technology

The general secretariat of the Iraqi Council of Ministers called on Iraq’s finance ministry to suspend approximately $384 million in monthly payments to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) due to its failure to share oil production with the federal government, Iraq Oil Report reported April 23. 

Iraq: Cabinet Calls on Finance Ministry to End KRG Payments

COVID-19

United States

Denmark

Germany

Russia

Russia's only pipe-laying vessel equipped to finish the last leg of the Nord Stream 2 project, the Akademic Chersky, has been located off-route near Mozambique, Kommersant reported March 17.

Russia: Vessel Slated to Finish Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Spotted Off-Course 

The Politics of Pipelines

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia will decide in the coming days whether to formally announce an initial public offering for Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (Saudi Aramco) on Nov. 3, Bloomberg reported Nov. 1.

Saudi Arabia: Riyadh Hasn't Made Final Decision on IPO yet, Report Says

The Saudi Survival Strategy

<p>The history of energy is marked by motion. From the early adoption of wood, wind and water to the more recent adoption of hydrocarbons, societies constantly found new and innovative means to power their ways of life. The future of energy will be no less innovative as renewable energy, storage technologies, nuclear power, efficiency technologies and smart grids become cheaper and more cost-effective. These technologies will not replace hydrocarbons entirely &mdash; no more so than hydrocarbons have entirely replaced water &mdash; but they will temper the political and economic influence hydrocarbons producers currently have.</p>

New energy sources will never fully replace oil and natural gas.

Europe

Agriculture

Commodities: A Cautionary Tale

Globalization

The 4th Industrial Revolution

Snapshots

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador looks at a graph during his daily press conference in Mexico City on April 11, 2022. 

Politics

The Importance of Mexico

With the recall vote behind him, the president will seek to capitalize on an upcoming pause in election cycles to push his controversial constitutional reforms through Congress.

In Mexico, What Lopez Obrador’s Symbolic Electoral Win Means for His Political Agenda

Media

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in Stratfor’s 2021 Q2 Worldview Forecast.

2021 Q2 Forecast Webcast

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Assessments

Iran

Yemen

Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud walks the halls of the U.S. State Department in Washington D.C. after meeting with then-U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Oct. 14, 2020. 

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

The White House’s renewed criticism of the kingdom’s leadership and human rights record will undoubtedly clash with Riyadh’s own imperatives. 

Biden Brings More Skepticism Into the U.S.-Saudi Relationship

Iran's Arc of Influence

Guidance

Angola

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

The IMF’s announced $1 billion disbursement will help fill some of Angola’s financing gaps, though there is clearly a market view that the country may still require more comprehensive debt restructuring.

Reading the Fine Print of Angola’s Debt Restructuring

Supply Chains

The New Silk Road

South Africa

France

Army vehicles patrol the roads on the outskirts of a village in northern Mozambique on May 26, 2016. 

The Jihadist Wars

The French oil major's new security pact with the African country will likely only contain militant activity near its natural gas project, leaving the rest of northern Mozambique still vulnerable to attacks.

To Protect Its Energy Projects, Total Joins Mozambique's Counterterrorism Fight 

Russia's Internal Struggle

Given the faster-than-expected recovery in oil prices, OPEC and its allies will reportedly consider a Saudi-Russian compromise to only briefly delay the tapering of current cuts.

OPEC+ Moves Toward Early Meeting to Discuss Extending Production Cuts

A collection of Saudi riyal banknotes. 

The current peg of Saudi riyals to the U.S. dollar is not in immediate jeopardy, but a new normal of lower oil prices will likely force the kingdom to devalue its currency in the next five years.

Saudi Arabia’s Currency Peg Will Hold -- For Now

Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi makes a speech in Baghdad on May 6, 2020. 

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

As pandemic-induced oil price shocks rob Baghdad of its primary revenue source, the success of Prime Minister al-Kadhimi’s new government will hinge on avoiding the further deterioration of the country’s economic and political stability. 

A Monumental Task Awaits Iraq’s New Government

With the coronavirus outbreak already taking its toll on oil prices, Saudi Arabia moved to cut prices even more after Russia refused to join an OPEC deal last week. The Russian economy will take a hit, but in this price war, Moscow may not be the first to surrender.

Why Saudi Arabia's Oil Price War May Backfire

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Economic projections find that if current conditions hold, the Gulf region's wealthy monarchies will begin to face a financial reckoning within the decade.

The IMF Foresees Trouble for the GCC's Oil-Heavy Economies

Venezuela

Falling oil prices may mean turmoil lies ahead for OPEC.

A glut of oil in the market means prices are likely to remain low throughout 2019. That's likely to bring contrasting fortunes to major oil producers around the globe.

The World's Oil Producers Prepare for a New Era of Low Prices

Qatar

In a little over a year, the United States is expected to become one of the top three LNG exporters in the world. 

The U.S. shift to shale has boosted its oil production significantly, yet there hasn't been the same uptick for natural gas. That is about to change with liquefied natural gas.

U.S. LNG Exports Are About to Reshape the Global Market

_Energy

SITUATION REPORTS

Global: OPEC Members Reconvene, Delaying OPEC+ Meeting

China, Philippines: Manila Unilaterally Ends South China Sea Energy Exploration Moratorium

Mozambique: EU Offers Military Assistance in Response to Mozambican Request

Lebanon, Israel: Countries Meet to Discuss Disputed Maritime Borders

Turkey: Erdogan Unveils Details of Natural Gas Discovery in Black Sea

Iraq: Cabinet Calls on Finance Ministry to End KRG Payments

Russia: Vessel Slated to Finish Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Spotted Off-Course

Saudi Arabia: Riyadh Hasn't Made Final Decision on IPO yet, Report Says

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