In this episode of the Essential Geopolitics podcast from Stratfor, a RANE company, Emily Donahue speaks to Stratfor Asia-Pacific analyst Evan Rees. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte gave a U.N. General Assembly speech this week that indicated he would take a hardline position on his country's South China Sea claims.
The IMF’s announced $1 billion disbursement will help fill some of Angola’s financing gaps, though there is clearly a market view that the country may still require more comprehensive debt restructuring.
The French oil major's new security pact with the African country will likely only contain militant activity near its natural gas project, leaving the rest of northern Mozambique still vulnerable to attacks.
Given the faster-than-expected recovery in oil prices, OPEC and its allies will reportedly consider a Saudi-Russian compromise to only briefly delay the tapering of current cuts.
The current peg of Saudi riyals to the U.S. dollar is not in immediate jeopardy, but a new normal of lower oil prices will likely force the kingdom to devalue its currency in the next five years.
By Greg Priddy
Stratfor analyst Emily Hawthorne speaks to Emily Donahue about the economic impact on Gulf Cooperation Council states.
As pandemic-induced oil price shocks rob Baghdad of its primary revenue source, the success of Prime Minister al-Kadhimi’s new government will hinge on avoiding the further deterioration of the country’s economic and political stability.
With the coronavirus outbreak already taking its toll on oil prices, Saudi Arabia moved to cut prices even more after Russia refused to join an OPEC deal last week. The Russian economy will take a hit, but in this price war, Moscow may not be the first to surrender.
Economic projections find that if current conditions hold, the Gulf region's wealthy monarchies will begin to face a financial reckoning within the decade.
A glut of oil in the market means prices are likely to remain low throughout 2019. That's likely to bring contrasting fortunes to major oil producers around the globe.
