Since Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, the balance of naval power in the Black Sea has shifted. Ukraine has been all but pushed out of the arena as Moscow has built up its fleet strength in the sea. Meanwhile, the strategic importance of the waters has risen in NATO's eyes as the bloc seeks to bolster its deterrence against Russia in Europe. To counter Russia's presence, Turkey and Romania will advocate strengthening the joint NATO naval force in the Black Sea at the security alliance's Warsaw summit on July 8-9.
But as NATO contemplates enhancing its forces in the Black Sea, it must contend with the constraints set by the 1936 Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits. The pact imposes limits on warships from nations that do not border the Black Sea. A multinational force such as NATO's, however, could largely circumvent those restrictions. Plus, NATO could also lean on Romania and Turkey, which are largely exempted from the convention's restrictions, to bulk up a Black Sea fleet.
While Romania might be the most enthusiastic supporter of an expanded NATO presence, reluctance to antagonize Russia could curb support from Bulgaria and Turkey. Right now, the idea of further acrimony with Moscow is unpopular among Bulgarian voters. With a presidential election approaching, the government in Sofia will be cautious about being perceived as hawkish toward Russia. Turkey, for its part, was until recently a strong supporter of the Black Sea initiative. But in the past few weeks, Ankara has made an effort to normalize ties with Moscow, and it will likely tread lightly.
In terms of sheer numbers of ships, Russia does not have the upper hand in the Black Sea. But it has other military advantages that help make up for its smaller fleet size. For instance, it has a significant lead in aviation assets, and it possesses long-range anti-ship cruise missile batteries that can reach most of the Black Sea. Russia is also in the process of substantially modernizing its Black Sea surface and submarine forces. Though Russia will have to contend with NATO's heightened interest in the Black Sea, Moscow can work to exploit divisions within the alliance to press its advantages. As the two sides jockey for the strategic edge, the competition to control the Black Sea will undoubtedly heat up.
