GRAPHICS

Iranian Embassy Bombing in Lebanon

Nov 19, 2013 | 19:02 GMT

Stratfor's graphic of the day features a standout geopolitical map, chart, image or data visualization reflecting global and regional trends and events.

(Stratfor)

Iranian Embassy Bombing in Lebanon

At least 23 people were killed and 146 wounded in the twin bombings Nov. 19 targeting the Iranian Embassy and ambassador's residence in Beirut's southern suburbs. The Abdullah Azzam Brigades, an al Qaeda-linked jihadist group in the Levant region, claimed responsibility for two suicide bombings. The first explosion reportedly occurred when a suicide bomber on a motorcycle detonated his explosives outside the main gate at the Iranian Embassy. A vehicle-borne improvised explosive device, using a Renault Rapid van as its delivery vehicle, was responsible for the second explosion, which was much larger and occurred a few meters from the initial blast.

Occurring at approximately 9:42 a.m. local time, around the time when embassy employees would be arriving, the blasts were intended to inflict maximum carnage. In attacks such as this, it is typical for a smaller explosive device to be used to draw in emergency responders before a second, larger device detonates to produce more casualties. Another approach involves the use of a larger explosive device to penetrate the perimeter of the target, enabling a second bomber to get closer to the target. The timing and sequence of this attack does not fit neatly into either of these operational norms — in particular, the second explosion occurred before emergency responders had arrived — but it is possible that one of the bombers panicked and rushed the plan.

The bombings in Beirut are likely the jihadists' response to heavy Hezbollah and Iranian involvement in the Syrian civil war on the side of the al Assad regime. The attack marks the third successful jihadist penetration of a Hezbollah enclave in Lebanon in the past five months, revealing the degree of fatigue and distraction that Hezbollah has experienced as a result of its efforts to reinforce the Syrian regime across the border. Yet the attack is unlikely to reduce Hezbollah's or Iran's involvement in the Syrian war. Both recognize the unique opportunity to bolster Syrian President Bashar al Assad's position while U.S.-Iranian negotiations are underway and while Sunni rebel factions have only Saudi Arabia as their primary weapons supplier. With Western support to the Sunni rebels on hold, the Iranians, Syrians and Hezbollah hold a clear advantage on the battlefield.