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On Geopolitics

Ethiopia

Nigeria

Argentina

Brazil

Iran

Turkey

Hong Kong SAR, China

China

Taiwan

Germany

France

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

India

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2022 Annual Forecast as 2023 Approaches

Snapshots

Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks during the Opening Ceremony of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party on Oct. 16, 2022, in Beijing, China. 

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

Social Issues

President Xi's address at the twice-a-decade political meeting painted a picture of a government and economy beset by both internal and external enemies.

A Half-Time Report on China's 20th Party Congress

U.S.-China Relations

Assessments

Hong Kong Chief Executive-elect John Lee (right) and current Chief Executive Carrie Lam attend a press conference at the Central Government Complex on May 9, 2022, in Hong Kong, China. 

China in Transition

The incoming chief executive's focus on national security and ties with Beijing bodes ill for Hong Kongers' personal freedoms and the territory's business climate.

Under John Lee, Hong Kong's Democratic Backsliding Will Accelerate

Security

Guidance

South Africa

United States

Australia

Japan

From left to right, the foreign ministers of the United States, Australia, India and Japan hold a press conference after a Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) meeting in Melbourne on Feb. 11, 2022.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Environment, Science & Technology

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

Asia-Pacific: Among Great Powers

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Europe to Discuss Ukraine, India Meets With Fellow Quad Members

COVID-19

South Korea

United Kingdom

A Hong Kong Airlines plane lands Sept. 1, 2021, at Sydney Kingsford Smith Airport. Hong Kong authorities will suspend transit flights from 150 countries from Jan. 16 to Feb. 15 in response to the global spread of the omicron variant.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Ukraine Tensions Continue, South Korea's President Tours the Mideast

The president of Hong Kong’s Legislative Council, Andrew Leung (center), looks on as Chief Executive Carrie Lam (left) makes an address during the first session of the newly elected legislature on Jan. 12, 2022. 

The likely addition of new NSL crimes will present greater surveillance and discrimination risks to businesses and Hong Kong citizens.

A Plan to Expand Hong Kong’s National Security Law Accelerates China’s Takeover

On Security

Uganda

El Salvador

Nicaragua

A demonstration against a Polish parliamentary vote seen as impinging on press freedoms Dec. 19, 2021, in Warsaw, Poland. Crackdowns on independent media and civil society groups pose long-term risks by silencing valuable local information sources and harming the business climate.

Political Instability & Social Unrest

Crackdowns on independent media and civil society groups pose long-term risks by silencing valuable local information sources and harming the business climate.

The Corporate Implications of Cracking Down on Domestic Dissent

Mexico

Venezuela

Israel

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Afghanistan

A compilation of four photos (from left to right) shows a COVID-19 vaccine, U.S. President Joe Biden, the logo of the Chinese telecommunications company Huawei, and a stock market sign. 

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting the events of the past year.

Grading Our 2021 Annual Forecast as 2022 Approaches

Officials open a ballot box as vote counting starts Sept. 19, 2021, in Hong Kong.

The elections have put the legislature in the hands of pro-Beijing factions, and will accelerate Western sanctions against China.

Hong Kong Legislative Council Election Results Highlight the Mainland Takeover 

Chile

Libya

Jose Kast, the presidential candidate from Chile’s right-wing Republican Party, speaks during a closing rally in Santiago on Dec. 16, 2021, ahead of runoff elections. 

The Weekly Rundown: Elections in Chile, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Potentially Libya

People walk past an electronic display showing Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index in the city’s central district on Feb. 26, 2021. 

The postponement signals an intent to avoid jeopardizing the city’s status as a foreign business hub. But Beijing could still impose the sweeping measures later.

China Delays Extending Its Anti-Sanctions Law to Hong Kong -- For Now

Kenya

Canada

A trial at the Supreme Court of Kenya on June, 26, 2019, in Nairobi.

The Weekly Rundown: Constitutional Reform in Kenya, a Mainland Meeting About Hong Kong

Hong Kong's legislature unanimously approved a bill barring foreign lawyers from working on national security cases, Hong Kong Free Press reported on May 10.

Hong Kong: Law Gives Chief Executive the Power to Ban Foreign Lawyers

Hong Kong's Chief Executive John Lee proposed cutting the number of democratically elected seats in district councils from 94% to 19% in the November elections, Hong Kong Free Press reported on May 2.

Hong Kong: Cuts to District Council Elected Seats Highlight 'National Securitization' of Government

A Hong Kong student was arrested upon her return from Japan to Hong Kong in March because she made online statements while in Japan supporting Hong Kong's independence, The Asahi Shimbun reported on April 21.

Hong Kong: First National Security Arrest for Online Statements Made Overseas

Residents in Hong Kong's Tseung Kwan O district protested the city's land reclamation policy, the first protest against a government policy in roughly two years, Hong Kong Free Press reported on March 26.

Hong Kong: Strong Restrictions Continue to Mute Post-COVID-19 Protests

On March 2, the Hong Kong Women Workers' Association (HKWWA) claimed authorities had given them verbal permission to hold a march -- with an expected turnout of 100 people -- in line with International Women's Day, Hong Kong Free Press has reported. 

Hong Kong: Women's March Shines Spotlight on Tolerance for Dissent

China's Ministry of Finance has urged some state-owned enterprises to switch to Chinese or Hong Kong auditing firms when their contracts with the Big Four -- PwC, EY, KPMG and Deloitte -- expire in order to protect national data security, reduce US sectoral influence and bolster China's domestic accounting industry, Bloomberg reported Feb. 22.

China: Beijing Urges SOEs to Ditch Big Four, Highlighting PCAOB Hurdles

Lo Man-tuen, a senior official with a pro-Beijing influence organization operating in Hong Kong, claimed in a Feb. 13 editorial that there was "no urgency" to expand the territory's National Security Law (NSL) during the "sensitive period" ahead of Taiwan's January 2024 presidential elections, Hong Kong Free Press reported the same day.

Hong Kong: National Security Law Expansion May Be Delayed Until 2024

Hong Kong's pro-Beijing newspaper Oriental Daily News responded to police criticism of its coverage of the Jan. 24 police shooting of an unarmed Filipino resident, Hong Kong Free Press reported Feb. 3.

Hong Kong: Media Checks on Government Power Waning Amid News Scrutiny

Algeria

Antigua and Barbuda

Luxembourg

South Sudan

A view of the Register in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

Angola

Armenia

Bahrain

Lithuania

Covering an area that spans the entire width of the continent beginning at the Sahara Desert and ending at the southernmost tip of South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to countless cultures, languages, religions, plants, animals and natural resources.

Barbados

Benin

Egypt

Maldives

Malta

Belize

Botswana

Brunei Darussalam

North Macedonia

Tajikistan

Bhutan

Bolivia

Burkina Faso

Cambodia

Iraq

The President palace in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan

The administrative center of the Gakh region of Azerbaijan, located at the foot of the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, on the river Kurhumchai.

Burundi

Finland

Nepal

Cameroon

Georgia

Jordan

Pakistan

Mir Castle in the Minsk region of Belarus.

Cabo Verde

Federated States of Micronesia

Kuwait

Liechtenstein

Sri Lanka

Central African Republic

Colombia

Fiji

Latvia

Lebanon

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Chad

Costa Rica

Indonesia

Comoros

Cuba

Czech Republic

A horse grazes in front of Kara-Kul lake in the Chon-Ak-Suu valley, 300 kilometers southeast of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

Morocco

Cote d'Ivoire

Denmark

Dominica

Kiribati

Moldova

Oman

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Dominican Republic

Laos

Palestinian Territories

Djibouti

Ecuador

Holy See (Vatican City)

Malaysia

Qatar

Equatorial Guinea

Greece

Marshall Islands

Eritrea

Grenada

Mongolia

<p>Located at China&#39;s doorstep along the Pearl River Delta, Hong Kong has long served as a bridge between mainland China and the West. More than 150 years of British colonial rule (beginning in the 1840s) endowed the city with a uniquely liberal economy, a Western regulatory system, and strong rule of law that differentiate it from many other parts of the Asia-Pacific region. These characteristics helped to transform the city into a leading reexport and financial center in the past five decades, building on connections into the mainland&#39;s lucrative market and industry. Nearly 8 million people reside in the special region&#39;s 687 square kilometer (427 square mile) territory, making it the world&#39;s most densely populated city with a high level of ethnic diversity.</p><p>Under the Sino-British Joint Declaration, Hong Kong was guaranteed economic and political autonomy under the &quot;One Country, Two Systems&quot; principle for 50 years after the handover to China in 1997. But years of attempts by Beijing to increase its political control over the city and the consequences of deeper economic integration have eroded that status. This, coupled with the city&#39;s deep-rooted socio-economic issues, contribute to a rising tide of Hong Kong nativism manifesting as pro-independence advocacy, particularly among the younger generation. As the city struggles to diversify its economy beyond the financial and retail industry, its growing political polarization and radicalization combined with concerns about Beijing&#39;s encroachment could threaten Hong Kong&#39;s economic prospects at a time when mainland cities and the rest of the Asia-Pacific region are preparing to seize new opportunities.</p>

The Chinese national flag on Aug. 8., 2016, in Beijing. China's cyber operations through 2025 most likely will be primarily espionage- and information-focused as China seeks to avoid economic and cyber retaliation by the United States and the West, but could become more confrontational if tensions with Taiwan dramatically increase.

China's Cyberattacks Focus Heavily on Espionage

China's Cyberattacks Expand to Include Regional Disruptive Campaigns

China's Cyberattacks Expand to Include Significant Regional Information Campaigns

China's Cyberattacks Expand to Include Financially Motivated Attacks

China's Cyber Threat Reduces Slightly as U.S.-China Cyber Cooperation Increases

How Do Chinese Threat Actors' Cyberattacks Evolve Through 2025?

Cyber

SITUATION REPORTS

Hong Kong: Law Gives Chief Executive the Power to Ban Foreign Lawyers

Hong Kong: Cuts to District Council Elected Seats Highlight 'National Securitization' of Government

Hong Kong: First National Security Arrest for Online Statements Made Overseas

Hong Kong: Strong Restrictions Continue to Mute Post-COVID-19 Protests

Hong Kong: Women's March Shines Spotlight on Tolerance for Dissent

China: Beijing Urges SOEs to Ditch Big Four, Highlighting PCAOB Hurdles

Hong Kong: National Security Law Expansion May Be Delayed Until 2024

Hong Kong: Media Checks on Government Power Waning Amid News Scrutiny

Forecasts

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