Armenia

Azerbaijan

Military & Security

Politics

Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to the text of a peace agreement after Armenia accepted Azerbaijan's proposal regarding two outstanding points, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported on March 13.

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Countries Finalize Peace Agreement's Text, Though Obstacles Remain

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said his government and Azerbaijan had agreed on 15 out of 17 articles of their draft peace agreement, the two remaining points being the non-deployment of third-country forces and the waiving of claims in international courts, Armenian News reported on Jan. 31.

Armenia: Pashinyan Says Baku and Yerevan Have Agreed to 15 of 17 Articles of Peace Agreement

Russia

Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev urged Russia to accept the blame for the crash of an Azerbaijani airliner on Dec. 25 that killed 38 people, and he accused Moscow of trying to "cover up" its involvement in the incident, BBC reported on Dec. 29.

Azerbaijan, Russia: Baku Makes Demands Following Dec. 25 Plane Crash

Ukraine

Kazakhstan

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A Russian air defense system was responsible for the downing of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 on Dec. 25 near the Kazakh city of Aktau, which killed 38 people, Euronews reported Dec. 26, citing unidentified Azerbaijani government sources familiar with a preliminary investigation.

Azerbaijan, Russia: Azerbaijani Sources Claim Russian Air Defenses Downed Civilian Passenger Flight

Turkey

In an interview with Russian state media, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev dismissed as "political speculation" reports of the establishment of a permanent Turkish military base in Azerbaijan, TASS reported on Dec. 18.

Azerbaijan, Russia: Aliyev Says No Need for Turkish Military Base in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev dissolved the country's parliament and called for early legislative elections on Sept. 1, Meduza reported June 28.

Azerbaijan: President Aliyev Dissolves Parliament, Calls for Early Elections 

Armenian Prime Minister Pashinian instructed lawmakers and a constitutional commission to draft a new Constitution and approve it by Dec. 30, 2026, RFE/RL reported June 20. 

Armenia: PM Announces Push for Constitutional Changes To Support Peace Deal

Armenia Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian said that Armenia will leave the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) when the authorities deem it necessary, but the timeline for this step is still undetermined, Kommersant reported June 12. 

Armenia: Prime Minister Pashinian Says Armenia Will Leave the CSTO

Assessments

Iran

Armenia's foreign minister (2nd R) speaks during a meeting with his Azerbaijani and Kazakh counterparts in Almaty on May 10, 2024. 

A peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan is edging closer, but political delays in Yerevan postpone its implementation and leave the risk of renewed border tensions unresolved.

Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal Progresses, Though Hurdles Remain

United States

China

Europe

Georgia

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev (4th from left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (5th from left) attend a meeting in Moscow on April 22, 2024. 

Economics

Russia's influence in the South Caucasus is set to decline in the years ahead as countries adjust their foreign policies to balance global and regional powers, creating opportunities for China, Turkey and the West.

The Coming South Caucasus Realignment

Columns

On Geopolitics

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Crowds of Palestinians gather to receive food outside a U.N. aid distribution center in the Gazan city of Deir al-Balah on Nov. 2, 2024.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Social Issues

The displacement of any Palestinians from the Gaza Strip will further erode post-World War II norms against population transfers, laying the groundwork for future global conflicts.

Trump's Gaza Plan Risks Further Eroding Global Constraints on Population Removals

A sign for COP29 on Nov. 3, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. Negotiators at this year's U.N. Climate Change Conference will ultimately reach a new global climate finance deal, but progress on the global energy transition will not accelerate.

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Negotiators at this year's U.N. Climate Change Conference will ultimately reach a new global climate finance deal, but progress on the global energy transition will not accelerate significantly.

What to Watch for at This Year's 'Finance COP' in Azerbaijan

A natural gas compressor station is pictured on the grounds of the Baltic Sea gas pipeline prior to its opening ceremony in Budno near Goleniow, Poland. 

Despite strong interest in a deal from all parties, constraints may sink negotiations on further Russian gas transit through Ukraine. 

Ukraine Seeks Gas Transit Agreement With Azerbaijan as Gazprom Deal Nears Expiry

Snapshots

Azerbaijan's border guards are seen in Ghizilhajili, a village thar Armenia recently returned to Azerbaijani control under border demarcation deal between the Caucasus rivals.

Despite progress on a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, significant disagreements on key issues suggest that a final agreement remains unlikely in the near term.

Armenia-Azerbaijan Negotiations Head in the Right Direction but Have a Long Way to Go

Supporters of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev rally with national flags and his portraits in Baku, Azerbaijan, after polls closed in the country's snap presidential election on Feb. 7, 2024. 

With the election now behind him, Aliyev will be free to keep pressuring Armenia to accept a peace deal on his terms, maintaining the risk of renewed violence between the two countries later this year.

In Azerbaijan, an Early Presidential Election May Portend Further Threats To Armenia

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

South Africa

Argentina

Mexico

Hong Kong SAR, China

Japan

South Korea

Taiwan

France

United Kingdom

Poland

Spain

Italy

Bangladesh

India

Pakistan

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Tunisia

The U.S. and Mexican flags. On Dec. 27, a delegation of top U.S. officials including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas is expected to travel to Mexico to meet with President Lopez Obrador to discuss ways to address the recent surge of migrants on the southern U.S. border.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. and Mexican Officials Talk Migration, Putin Meets With CIS Leaders

A photo taken on Oct. 3, 2023, shows a military position that was recently retaken by Azerbaijani troops in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

With the world distracted by other crises, Azerbaijan may be tempted to seize parts of southern Armenia. But for Baku, the potential benefits of such an operation are still unlikely to outweigh the costs.

Assessing the Prospect of Azerbaijan Invading Armenia

Slovakia

The U.S. Capitol on Dec. 22, 2022, in Washington.

The Weekly Rundown: Turkey's Parliamentary Session, a U.S. Government Shutdown

Armenians protest outside the government building in central Yerevan to urge the government to respond to the Azerbaijani military operation launched against the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region on Sept. 19, 2023.

With Nagorno-Karabakh in hand, Azerbaijan will increasingly pressure Armenia to grant concessions amid ongoing peace negotiations, and Russia's influence in the region will continue to decline.

What's Next for the South Caucasus After Azerbaijan's Seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh

Azerbaijan is located in the mountainous and strategic region known as the Caucasus, which lies at the intersection of Europe, the Middle East and Asia. The country is in many ways defined less by its own territory than by its powerful neighbors. To the north is Russia, to the south, Iran and to the west, Turkey. All three of these countries have controlled parts or all of modern Azerbaijan throughout its history. Most recently the country was ruled by Russia under the former Soviet Union, but all its neighboring powers retain substantial influence and continue to shape the country. Outside its mainland borders is Azerbaijan's landlocked exclave of Nakhchivan, which flanks its historic rival Armenia and borders Turkey and Iran. Within Azerbaijan is the Armenian exclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, a Soviet-era holdover that, along with Nakhchivan, creates major regional tension. From 1988 to 1994, Azerbaijan and Armenia fought a war over control of Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan's capital city of Baku, located east along the coastline of the Caspian Sea, is where the country's economic, political and demographic resources are concentrated. Though the Caspian has no ocean access, Azerbaijan has been able to leverage its energy resources and location by building the Southern Gas Corridor energy route. This helps the country balance regional powers and maintain sovereignty from Russia in ways that neighbors Georgia and Armenia cannot. Despite this, Azerbaijan will always struggle with its position in a complex neighborhood, surrounded by larger powers. The country must maneuver carefully in order to preserve its independence.

The administrative center of the Gakh region of Azerbaijan, located at the foot of the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, on the river Kurhumchai.

SITUATION REPORTS

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Countries Finalize Peace Agreement's Text, Though Obstacles Remain

Armenia: Pashinyan Says Baku and Yerevan Have Agreed to 15 of 17 Articles of Peace Agreement

Azerbaijan, Russia: Baku Makes Demands Following Dec. 25 Plane Crash

Azerbaijan, Russia: Azerbaijani Sources Claim Russian Air Defenses Downed Civilian Passenger Flight

Azerbaijan, Russia: Aliyev Says No Need for Turkish Military Base in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan: President Aliyev Dissolves Parliament, Calls for Early Elections

Armenia: PM Announces Push for Constitutional Changes To Support Peace Deal

Armenia: Prime Minister Pashinian Says Armenia Will Leave the CSTO

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