Tajikistan

Uzbekistan

Kyrgyzstan

Afghanistan

Military & Security

Instability in Central Asia

The Islamic State's Afghanistan branch has in recent weeks ramped up the production, translation and dissemination of propaganda directed at Uzbek, Tajik and Kyrgyz speakers in Afghanistan and the Central Asian region, publishing several books and audio messages in Central Asian languages, Eurasianet reported March 18.

Eurasia: Islamic State Seeks to Radicalize Uzbeks, Tajiks, Kyrgyz

The Fight Against the Islamic State

Security

Mozambique

Energy

Economics

Member countries of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) agreed to extend their troop deployment in northern Mozambique to combat a local Islamic State-backed jihadist group, which has repeatedly attacked the country's energy projects, Reuters reported Jan. 13.

Mozambique: Extended SADC Troop Deployment Could Facilitate Resumption of Energy Projects

Pakistan

Politics

South Asian Militancy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

A senior commander of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorist group was killed in Afghanistan's Nangarhar province, Dawn reported Jan. 10.

Afghanistan: TTP Commander's Death Could Presage Taliban Crackdown

Iran

Iraq

The Pulse of Political Islam

A motorcycle rigged with explosives detonated across from a hospital in the southern Iraqi city of Basra, killing several people and wounding at least two dozen more, Alsumaria reported Dec. 7.

Iraq: Deadly Attack in Basra Marks Rare Terror Incident in Southern City

Iran's Arc of Influence

U.N. Special Representative to Afghanistan Deborah Lyons stated that the Islamic State Khorasan Province is present in almost all 34 Afghani provinces, Reuters reported Nov. 17.

Afghanistan: U.N. Envoy Says ISKP is Present in Almost all Provinces

Pakistan is helping Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government fight the Islamic State Khorasan Province through informal intelligence sharing, The Washington Post reported Oct. 23.

Pakistan, Afghanistan: Islamabad Supports Taliban in Fight Against ISKP

The Jihadist Wars

A spokesperson with the Mozambiquan army announced that government forces had fully secured the northern town of Palma after the spate of militant attacks in late March, and noted that the next step was creating conditions for the safe return of residents who fled amid last month’s violence, Reuters reported April 5. 

Mozambique: Government Claims to Secure Palma After Militant Attacks

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

Twin attacks in the western Nigerien villages of Tchombangou and Zaroumadareye killed approximately 100 people and injured about 75 more, marking some of the deadliest events in the country's postcolonial history, AFP reported Jan. 3.

Niger: Deadly Attacks Indicate Risk of Election-Related Violence

The Islamic State is in decline. Under pressure from all the enemies it has made in its rise to power, the group continues to lose territory in Iraq and Syria — and thus its claim as a legitimate caliphate. But for all its losses on the battlefield, it has lost none of its potency as a terrorist group, one that will continue to attack its foes in the Middle East and beyond. The Islamic State’s degradation, meanwhile, is fueling a competition for the lands it used to control, pitting the Iranians, Turks and Kurds against one another for influence in the absence of another authority.

The Islamic State is in decline.

Syria

Libya

The Syrian Civil War

The Libyan Civil War

The Kurdish Struggle

The Difficulties of North African Reform

Turkey's Resurgence

The Battle for Mosul

Crossing Borders

A Crude Recovery

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Assessments

Taliban fighters in armored vehicles in a military parade on April 19, 2022, in Herat, Afghanistan. Growing domestic and cross-border violence is aggravating insecurity, undermining Taliban governance and complicating relations with Afghanistan's neighbors.

Growing domestic and cross-border violence is aggravating insecurity, undermining Taliban governance and complicating relations with Afghanistan's neighbors.

Worsening Security in Afghanistan Threatens the Taliban at Home and Abroad

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Mourners attend the funeral of Yaakov Shalom, one of the five people killed in yesterday's shooting attack in the religious town of Bnei Brak, at the Yarkon cemetery in the Israeli city of Petah Tikva on March 30, 2022.

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

Additional attacks could ruin the peace between Israel and the Palestinian Territories, and they could even spark another war in Gaza.

Terror Attacks Threaten Fragile Peace Between Israel and Palestinian Territories

Israel's Survival Strategy

Snapshots

People gather next to a damaged bus damaged in a deadly bomb blast in Kabul, Afghanistan, on Nov. 17, 2021. 

A string of attacks against minorities in Afghanistan will threaten the Taliban’s already tenuous hold on power.

The Implications of the Latest Islamic State Bombings in Kabul

Columns

On Security

Somalia

United States

Yemen

India

A British soldier leaves the Hombori area aboard a Chinook helicopter on March 28, 2019, during the start of the French Barkhane Force operation in Mali's Gourma region. In the short term, the Taliban victory will provide a significant propaganda victory for global jihadist groups; the long-term outlook for global jihadism is much less certain. 

War, Insurgency & Terrorism

The War in Afghanistan

In the short term, the Taliban victory will provide a significant propaganda victory for global jihadist groups; the long-term outlook for global jihadism is much less certain.

Jihadist Terrorism After the Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan

United Kingdom

Medical staff bring an injured man to a hospital after a deadly militant attack Aug. 26, 2021, outside Hamid Karzai International Airport in the Afghan capital of Kabul. The incident confirms prior security warnings and portends risks that will increase if any U.S. retaliation prolongs the withdrawal process.

The incident confirms prior security warnings and portends risks that will increase if any U.S. retaliation prolongs the withdrawal process.

Amid U.S. Afghan Withdrawal, Militants Launch Attacks Outside Kabul Airport

Rwanda

South Africa

Tanzania

A military convoy from a multinational intervention force on Aug. 5, 2021, in Pemba, Mozambique. Islamic State-backed militants appear to be shifting to a guerrilla insurgency in northern Mozambique, while intervening countries face a risk of reprisal attacks at home.

Islamic State-backed militants appear to be shifting to a guerrilla insurgency in northern Mozambique, while intervening countries face a risk of reprisal attacks at home.

In Mozambique, a Victory Against Jihadists Likely Signals a New Guerrilla Campaign

A general view of the reception of Total E&P Uganda in Kampala, Uganda, on Jan. 22, 2020. Jihadist militants' seizure of the town of Palma jeopardizes the viability of Mozambique's liquefied natural gas industry and with it, the country's financial future.

The seizure of Palma marks a turning point in the jihadist threat to Mozambique, putting the country's financial future at risk.

In Mozambique, a Jihadist Attack Changes the Game for the LNG Sector

An image of the Islamic State flag overlays a map of Iraq.

Environment, Science & Technology

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

With its regional and Western adversaries distracted, a spike in attacks shows the global jihadist group is well-positioned to return with a vengeance in its core territory.

Rumblings of an Islamic State Resurgence in Iraq

COVID-19

A member of ISCAP is seen holding a so-called Prophet's Banner on March 24, 2020, in Quissanga, Mozambique.

The growing power of Islamic State militants combined with the Mozambican government's limitations and seeming denial of the threat do not portend well. 

Reevaluating the Jihadist Threat in Mozambique

Media

Graphics

The United States sent troops into Iraq in 2003 to fight Saddam Hussein's government. U.S. forces returned to the country in 2014 to fight the Islamic State. More than 6,000 remain there today.

After departing Iraq in 2011, U.S. troops returned in 2014 to battle the Islamic State. They have remained even after the jihadist group's defeat.

Tracking the U.S. Troop Presence in Iraq

Podcasts

In this episode, Stratfor's Fred Burton sits down with journalist Mike Giglio, who tells the story of the rise of ISIS' caliphate and the coalition that worked to disassemble it in his new book Shatter the Nations: ISIS and the War for the Caliphate.

Shatter the Nations: ISIS and the War for the Caliphate

Guidance

China

Russia

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

More attacks could see Russian, Chinese, and U.S. security involvement -- and competition -- in the Central Asian country increase.

Militancy in Tajikistan Could Draw in Outside Powers

The Fight Against the Islamic State

SITUATION REPORTS

Eurasia: Islamic State Seeks to Radicalize Uzbeks, Tajiks, Kyrgyz

Mozambique: Extended SADC Troop Deployment Could Facilitate Resumption of Energy Projects

Afghanistan: TTP Commander's Death Could Presage Taliban Crackdown

Iraq: Deadly Attack in Basra Marks Rare Terror Incident in Southern City

Afghanistan: U.N. Envoy Says ISKP is Present in Almost all Provinces

Pakistan, Afghanistan: Islamabad Supports Taliban in Fight Against ISKP

Mozambique: Government Claims to Secure Palma After Militant Attacks

Niger: Deadly Attacks Indicate Risk of Election-Related Violence

Forecasts

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