Armenia

Azerbaijan

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Politics

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian told Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg, Russia, that substantial and positive changes are underway in the South Caucasus, citing resumed rail transit through Azerbaijan and a new agenda to restore key railway segments connecting Armenia with Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenpress reported Dec. 22.

Armenia, Russia: Leaders Tout Transport Links Amid Regional Geopolitical Shifts

Uzbekistan

Belarus

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Economics

Leaders of the Eurasian Economic Union on Dec. 21 approved a "differentiated" framework for a common financial market and initiated customs data exchange negotiations with Uzbekistan during the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting in St. Petersburg, Russia.

Russia: Moscow Scraps Plans for Common Eurasian Financial Market

Kazakhstan and Armenia upgraded their bilateral relationship to a strategic partnership during Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's state visit to Astana, Aqorda reported Nov. 21. 

Kazakhstan, Armenia: Leaders Elevate Relations To Strategic Partnership

Armenia received its first freight cargo shipment from Russia via Azerbaijan since 1991, transiting through Georgia and arriving with 1,050 tons of wheat at Dalarik station, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 6.

Armenia, Azerbaijan: First Direct Rail Freight Since Soviet Era Marks New Regional Reality

United States

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met at the White House for a summit hosted by U.S. President Donald Trump aimed at advancing a long-elusive peace deal, Reuters reported on Aug. 8.

Armenia, Azerbaijan: White House Summit Sparks New Momentum in Peace Process

United Arab Emirates

Military & Security

 Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met in the United Arab Emirates to discuss their countries' normalization process, Armenpress reported on July 10. 

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Leaders Meet in Abu Dhabi, Pledge To Continue Talking

Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to the text of a peace agreement after Armenia accepted Azerbaijan's proposal regarding two outstanding points, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported on March 13.

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Countries Finalize Peace Agreement's Text, Though Obstacles Remain

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said his government and Azerbaijan had agreed on 15 out of 17 articles of their draft peace agreement, the two remaining points being the non-deployment of third-country forces and the waiving of claims in international courts, Armenian News reported on Jan. 31.

Armenia: Pashinyan Says Baku and Yerevan Have Agreed to 15 of 17 Articles of Peace Agreement

Assessments

Iran

U.S. President Donald Trump (center), Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev (left) and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (right) hold up an agreement signed during a ceremony at the White House on Aug. 8, 2025.

The deal sidelines Russia and Iran while establishing a U.S. commercial presence in the South Caucasus, but it will remain fragile due to unresolved security guarantees and implementation challenges.

What To Make of the U.S.-Brokered Peace Deal Between Armenia and Azerbaijan

Snapshots

Georgia

A man walks past Azerbaijan's Embassy in Moscow on July 2, 2025. 

Energy

As the relationship between Azerbaijan and Russia sours, outside powers will embrace opportunities to increase their influence in the Caucasus.

 In the Caucasus, Russia's Sway Weakens Amid Quarrel With Azerbaijan

Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan addresses the crowd with a megaphone during a protest in Yerevan, Armenia, on Oct. 25, 2024. 

The prime minister's escalating dispute with the national church threatens to generate unrest and derail already delayed efforts to implement a contentious peace deal with rival Azerbaijan.

In Armenia, an Archbishop's Arrest Escalates the Prime Minister's Feud With the Church

Armenia's foreign minister (2nd R) speaks during a meeting with his Azerbaijani and Kazakh counterparts in Almaty on May 10, 2024. 

A peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan is edging closer, but political delays in Yerevan postpone its implementation and leave the risk of renewed border tensions unresolved.

Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal Progresses, Though Hurdles Remain

Turkey

China

Europe

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev (4th from left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (5th from left) attend a meeting in Moscow on April 22, 2024. 

Russia's influence in the South Caucasus is set to decline in the years ahead as countries adjust their foreign policies to balance global and regional powers, creating opportunities for China, Turkey and the West.

The Coming South Caucasus Realignment

Columns

On Geopolitics

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Ukraine

Crowds of Palestinians gather to receive food outside a U.N. aid distribution center in the Gazan city of Deir al-Balah on Nov. 2, 2024.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Social Issues

The displacement of any Palestinians from the Gaza Strip will further erode post-World War II norms against population transfers, laying the groundwork for future global conflicts.

Trump's Gaza Plan Risks Further Eroding Global Constraints on Population Removals

Azerbaijan's border guards are seen in Ghizilhajili, a village thar Armenia recently returned to Azerbaijani control under border demarcation deal between the Caucasus rivals.

Despite progress on a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, significant disagreements on key issues suggest that a final agreement remains unlikely in the near term.

Armenia-Azerbaijan Negotiations Head in the Right Direction but Have a Long Way to Go

Supporters of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev rally with national flags and his portraits in Baku, Azerbaijan, after polls closed in the country's snap presidential election on Feb. 7, 2024. 

With the election now behind him, Aliyev will be free to keep pressuring Armenia to accept a peace deal on his terms, maintaining the risk of renewed violence between the two countries later this year.

In Azerbaijan, an Early Presidential Election May Portend Further Threats To Armenia

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

South Africa

Argentina

Mexico

Hong Kong SAR, China

Japan

South Korea

Taiwan

France

United Kingdom

Poland

Spain

Italy

Bangladesh

India

Pakistan

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Tunisia

The U.S. and Mexican flags. On Dec. 27, a delegation of top U.S. officials including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas is expected to travel to Mexico to meet with President Lopez Obrador to discuss ways to address the recent surge of migrants on the southern U.S. border.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. and Mexican Officials Talk Migration, Putin Meets With CIS Leaders

A photo taken on Oct. 3, 2023, shows a military position that was recently retaken by Azerbaijani troops in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

With the world distracted by other crises, Azerbaijan may be tempted to seize parts of southern Armenia. But for Baku, the potential benefits of such an operation are still unlikely to outweigh the costs.

Assessing the Prospect of Azerbaijan Invading Armenia

Slovakia

The U.S. Capitol on Dec. 22, 2022, in Washington.

The Weekly Rundown: Turkey's Parliamentary Session, a U.S. Government Shutdown

Located in the Caucasus region, Armenia is situated on the transcontinental land bridge between Europe and Asia. Several powerful countries in its neighborhood surround Armenia, including Turkey, Russia and Iran. For much of Armenia's history, part or all of the country has been controlled by each of its neighbors. Russia, which controlled Armenia most recently during the days of the Soviet Union, remains the most influential external power in the country to this day.    Armenia's capital, Yerevan, is the country's core and contains most of the country's resources. The city of Gyumri, where Russian military forces are stationed, is key to the country's security. This Russian military presence protects Armenia from its neighboring rivals, Turkey and Azerbaijan. From 1988 to 1994, Armenia and Azerbaijan were at war over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The region is now under de facto Armenian control but remains a lingering source of tension with its neighbor Azerbaijan.    Because of its disputes with Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenia is economically isolated. The country thus depends on Russia for economic support and military protection. However, Russia does not always act in Armenia's best interest. Still, sustaining Russian support - or that of another power capable of defending Armenia in its complex and contested neighborhood - is Armenia's greatest geographic challenge.     Latest Forecast - Q2 2018:    Next year will kick off a busy election season in the Caucasus, too. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia will each hold presidential elections in 2018. More than the outcomes of these votes, though, the larger states nearby will influence foreign policy in the region. Azerbaijan and Georgia, for instance, will continue their efforts to forge closer energy, infrastructure and security ties with Turkey, while Armenia strengthens its military partnership with Russia and fortifies its economic links with Iran. Along the way, Tehran and Ankara will be careful not to challenge Moscow's strategic position in the Caucasus. Russia will remain the primary arbiter in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, working to prevent the dispute from escalating while at the same time supplying both sides with arms.

SITUATION REPORTS

Armenia, Russia: Leaders Tout Transport Links Amid Regional Geopolitical Shifts

Russia: Moscow Scraps Plans for Common Eurasian Financial Market

Kazakhstan, Armenia: Leaders Elevate Relations To Strategic Partnership

Armenia, Azerbaijan: First Direct Rail Freight Since Soviet Era Marks New Regional Reality

Armenia, Azerbaijan: White House Summit Sparks New Momentum in Peace Process

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Leaders Meet in Abu Dhabi, Pledge To Continue Talking

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Countries Finalize Peace Agreement's Text, Though Obstacles Remain

Armenia: Pashinyan Says Baku and Yerevan Have Agreed to 15 of 17 Articles of Peace Agreement

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