Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Jan. 30, 2025

Colombia

Colombian Foreign Relations Minister Luis Gilberto Murillo (C) looks on with other Colombian officials during a Jan. 26 press conference on a diplomatic dispute with the United States at the San Carlos Palace in Bogota, Colombia. 

Economics

Politics

The U.S. threat of tariffs and sanctions on Colombia because of a dispute over migrants offers a precedent for future White House threats against countries in Latin America and other parts of the world.

What Trump's Sanction and Tariff Threats Mean For Colombia 

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

A member of the M23 armed group walks alongside residents through a neighborhood in Goma, eastern Congo, on Jan. 27, 2025. 

Military & Security

The M23's entry into the eastern city will give Tshisekedi little choice but to engage in politically risky talks with the Rwanda-backed rebel group, or allow the conflict to expand and escalate.

M23 Advances in Goma Put Congo's President in a Tight Spot

Canada

Costa Rica

Dominican Republic

El Salvador

Guatemala

Mexico

Panama

Israel

Lebanon

China

Europe

Hungary

Russia

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his wife Jeanette Rubio arrive at the State Department in Washington, D.C., to speak to employees on Jan. 21, 2025. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Expires, Rubio Tours Latin America

South Korea

People Power Party lawmakers (bottom) argue with National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik (top) during the plenary session for the impeachment vote of acting president Han Duck-soo on Dec. 27, 2024, at the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea. Meaningful constitutional reform in South Korea remains unlikely, while instability will limit regional security engagement, risk political fragmentation and impede policymaking.

Meaningful constitutional reform remains unlikely, while instability will limit regional security engagement, risk political fragmentation and impede policymaking.

Yoon's Impeachment Drama Reopens the Fraught Issue of Constitutional Reform

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

India

Pakistan

The Geopolitics of Water

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

South Asia's rising demand for water resources will exacerbate disputes over key waterways, particularly the Brahmaputra and Indus rivers.

The Geopolitics of Water: Regional Rivals Compete for South Asia's Rivers

Media

Syria

Podcasts

Why did Syria's al Assad regime collapse so quickly after fighting reignited in November 2024?

Essential Geopolitics: Syria after al Assad

A Lebanese flag painted on a damaged building in a village in southern Lebanon is seen from a position on the Israeli side of the border on Jan. 23, 2025. 

Political and security imperatives will deter Israel from fully withdrawing from southern Lebanon by the Jan. 26 deadline outlined in its ceasefire with Hezbollah, which will risk provoking renewed Hezbollah attacks.

The Risks of a Delayed Israeli Withdrawal From Lebanon

U.S. Naval Update Map: Jan. 23, 2025

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani holds a press conference in Doha on Jan. 15, 2025, after Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire in Gaza.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Despite Qatar's success in getting Hamas to accept a ceasefire with Israel, Trump will remain critical of Doha's support for Islamist movements in the region.

For Qatar, the Gaza Ceasefire Will Ease U.S. Pressure -- For Now

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

The entrance to the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C.

Ahead of the first review of its newest IMF program, Pakistan seeks creditor assurances and a broader tax base.

Pakistan's Path to Meeting IMF Demands

Latest

Brazil

Low savings and investment, along with an increasingly uncertain fiscal outlook and increasing debt, make it unlikely that Brazil will succeed in maintaining its current growth momentum.

Brazil’s Economic Growth Is Set To Face Headwinds

Serbia

Kosovo

Demonstrators march in central Belgrade, Serbia, on Jan. 24, 2025, as part of a general strike over the fatal collapse of a train station roof in Novi Sad in November.

Protests over a deadly roof collapse in Novi Sad have morphed into a massive anti-corruption movement that could threaten Vucic's decade-long rule.

In Serbia, Mounting Anti-Government Protests Threaten President Vucic's Rule

Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a speech during a state awards ceremony at the Kremlin in Moscow on Dec. 16, 2024.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The negotiations are unlikely to quickly yield a ceasefire, as Trump pressures the Kremlin for a deal with sanctions pressure and the prospect of continued support to Ukraine.

How Will U.S.-Russia Talks on Ukraine Play Out in the Months Ahead?

Migrants from Mexico and Guatemala are apprehended by U.S. Customs and Border Patrol officers after crossing a section of the U.S.-Mexico border in Ruby, Arizona, on Jan. 4, 2025.

Such designations would harm Mexico's economy, business climate and ties with the U.S., as well as potentially its security environment if they lead to unilateral U.S. action on Mexican soil. 

The Impacts of U.S. Terrorist Designations Targeting Mexican Cartels

Snapshots

United Kingdom

The Bank of England is seen in London, the United Kingdom, on Sept. 19, 2024.

If market pressures persist, the Labour government may have to impose spending cuts or tax hikes that would derail its economic initiatives and make it all the more unpopular.

Market Instability Tests the U.K. Government's Fiscal Strategy

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attends a news conference on March 7, 2019 in Ottawa, Canada. 

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation aims to revitalize the Liberal Party but is unlikely to prevent a Conservative electoral victory amid his declining popularity and party turmoil.

Canada's Trudeau Bows Out, Paving Way for Early Election

Moldova

This picture taken on Sept. 2, 2014, shows equipment from the border release and compressor station of the gas pipeline from Ukraine in Veke Kapusany, eastern Slovakia. 

Russia is hoping to weaken Moldova's pro-European government by inducing a destabilizing energy crisis in the winter. But if this plan fails, it could further undermine Russian influence in the country.

To Keep Its Hold on Moldova, Russia Gambles on a Gas Cut-Off

The entrance of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange is seen in downtown Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Dec. 17, 2024.

Although the government will likely announce more spending cuts, they are unlikely to eliminate investor skepticism, portending further macroeconomic instability.

How Will Brazil's Financial Crisis Evolve in 2025?

Increased EU purchases of U.S. fossil fuels may ease trade tensions and facilitate talks with the incoming Trump administration, but they are unlikely to alone defuse the risk of tariffs and other trade disputes in the years ahead.

Can the EU Avoid Trump's Tariffs by Importing More U.S. Oil and Gas?

South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol declares martial law on Dec. 3, 2024, in Seoul, South Korea. 

Legal, social and political pressures will likely still force Yoon out of office in the coming months, bringing a liberal president to power who would pursue pro-labor policies and reorient South Korea's foreign relations.

South Korea's President Yoon Not Impeached, but His End Is Nigh

Iran

A military vehicle burns after it was hit by Syrian regime forces Dec. 7 in Syria's Hama governorate. After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

Syrian Rebels Pushing to Damascus, Regime Facing Imminent Collapse

Romania

Demonstrators hold EU and Romanian national flags during a pro-European rally in support of democracy at University Square in Bucharest, Romania, on Dec. 5, 2024, a few days before key elections. 

The ruling may bolster support for anti-establishment parties, undermine public trust in Romania's institutions and establish a dangerous precedent in other parts of Europe.

Romania's Election Annulment Raises the Stakes Domestically and Abroad

Columns

On Geopolitics

Asia-Pacific

Australia

Indonesia

Japan

Malaysia

Philippines

Taiwan

Vietnam

U.S. President Joe Biden gestures to reporters after landing on the South Lawn of the White House on Sept. 22, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Trump's more aggressive and transactional approach could deliver quick wins for the U.S.'s position in the region, though it could also strain ties with key partners. 

Trump's Asia-Pacific Approach Will Test Biden's Gains

U.S.-China Relations

Germany

A compressor gas station of the Yamal–Europe pipeline is seen on Feb. 19, 2022, in Wloclawek, Poland. 

The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal underscores Europe's ongoing efforts to sever its reliance on Russian resources, with far-reaching implications for energy markets and geopolitics in the region and beyond. 

The End of Russian Gas via Ukraine Cements Europe's New Energy Landscape

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Eurasia

South Asia

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags.

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast

U.S.-Iran Relations

Statements made by Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk, offer insight into how his next administration will approach the regulation (or lack thereof) of AI, online content, data and monopolistic business practices.

Previewing Trump's Tech Policies

Turkey

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

South Korean marines participate in joint exercises with U.S. forces Sept. 2 in Pohang, South Korea. Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of People in Conflict

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

On Security

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.

For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2

European officials are discussing the potential resumption of Russian pipeline gas exports to the European Union as part of a broader settlement to end the Russia-Ukraine war, the Financial Times reported on Jan. 30, citing sources close to the discussions. 

EU, Russia: EU Debates Controversial Russian Gas Resumption as Part of Potential Ukraine Peace Deal

Norway

Norway's two-party coalition government collapsed after the euroskeptic Centre Party left the coalition led by Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store's center-left Labour Party after weeks of infighting over the adoption of three EU energy directives, Reuters reported on Jan. 30.

Norway: Government Collapses Seven Months Ahead of Elections Over Disagreements on EU Energy Policy

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

The Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, announced that Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso had formally exited the regional bloc, Reuters reported on Jan. 29.

West Africa: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso Formally Exit ECOWAS

In an address to the nation, President of the Democratic Republic of Congo Felix Tshisekedi said the Congolese military would deliver a "vigorous" response to the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group following its seizure of Goma, which he said was paving the way for an "escalation endangering the entire Great Lakes region," Radio Okapi reported on Jan. 30.

Congo: Tshisekedi Vows Counteroffensive Against M23 as SADC Mulls Troop Withdrawal

After a meeting of armed groups in Damascus, Syria, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leader Ahmad al-Sharaa was appointed provisional president of the country, with the former constitution abolished, ousted President Bashar al Assad's Baath party outlawed, and the dissolution of the institutions that had formerly run Syria, Syria’s state media reported on Jan. 29.

Syria: Al-Sharra Named Provisional President, Former al Assad Government Abolished

Chile

Chile's Congress approved a pension reform in a 110-38 vote, aiming to increase payouts and reduce inequality, El Pais reported Jan. 29. 

Chile: Pension Reform Approval Unlikely to Significantly Improve Government's Popularity

Science & Technology

American tech companies Microsoft and OpenAI are investigating whether a group linked to Chinese artificial intelligence company DeepSeek illicitly obtained data from OpenAI models to train its breakout R1 model, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 28.

U.S.: OpenAI Claims DeepSeek Illicitly Accessed Data To Train Model

Police in Australia's New South Wales state on Jan. 19 uncovered explosives capable of causing a 40-meter (about 44-yard) blast and "significant damage," likely intended for use in a terrorist attack, the BBC reported on Jan. 29 after the case was leaked to the media. 

Australia: Police Uncover Explosives Likely Intended for Antisemitic Terrorist Attack

A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.

Reports that Trump's transition team may propose establishing an outside board to evaluate senior military officers raise serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces in the years ahead.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 1

An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel. 

In gauging how the conflict will evolve, much will depend on the level of Trump's support for Israel and hostility toward Iran.

How the Israel-Iran Conflict May Play Out With a Trump Presidency

Motegi Toshimitsu, the former secretary-general of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, inaugurated a monthly study session on economic and social security with a meeting of 60 lawmakers, including former LDP presidential candidates Koichi Hagiuda and Seiko Noda, Jiji reported on Jan. 29. 

Japan: Prime Minister Hopefuls Build Support Amid Talk of Double Election

Colombia's Petro government announced the imposition of 90-day taxes on "economically robust" sectors like oil and coal exports, online betting platforms, and stamps aimed at raising 1 trillion pesos ($240 million) to fund the anti-guerilla effort concentrated in the border region with Venezuela, El Colombiano reported on Jan. 28.

Colombia: New Taxes Funding Anti-Guerilla Effort Will Fuel Uncertainty, Undermine Petro's Popularity

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Brazil’s Economic Growth Is Set To Face Headwinds

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

EU, Russia: EU Debates Controversial Russian Gas Resumption as Part of Potential Ukraine Peace Deal

Norway: Government Collapses Seven Months Ahead of Elections Over Disagreements on EU Energy Policy

West Africa: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso Formally Exit ECOWAS

Congo: Tshisekedi Vows Counteroffensive Against M23 as SADC Mulls Troop Withdrawal

Syria: Al-Sharra Named Provisional President, Former al Assad Government Abolished

Chile: Pension Reform Approval Unlikely to Significantly Improve Government's Popularity

U.S.: OpenAI Claims DeepSeek Illicitly Accessed Data To Train Model

Australia: Police Uncover Explosives Likely Intended for Antisemitic Terrorist Attack

Japan: Prime Minister Hopefuls Build Support Amid Talk of Double Election

Colombia: New Taxes Funding Anti-Guerilla Effort Will Fuel Uncertainty, Undermine Petro's Popularity

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