Assessments

Israel

Palestinian Territories

China

Japan

South Korea

United Kingdom

India

Egyptian trucks and heavy machinery on Oct. 26, 2025, on the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing with the Gaza Strip.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Gaza Border Reopening, EU Leaders Visit India

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Jan. 22, 2026

Ukraine

Russia

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a meeting with European national security advisors in Kyiv on Jan. 3, 2026. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The reshuffle seeks to strengthen Zelensky's negotiating position and mitigate the political fallout from a likely unfavorable peace deal amid weakening Western support and Russia's continued battlefield advances.

Ukraine's Government Reshuffle Signals Preparation for a Tough Peace Deal

Sub-Saharan Africa

Benin

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Mali

Mozambique

Niger

Nigeria

Sudan

Togo

Structures destroyed in U.S. strikes on jihadist targets in Offa, Nigeria, are seen on Dec. 27, 2025.

New U.S. military action would most likely target jihadist groups, especially in West Africa, but limited strikes in Sudan or the Democratic Republic of the Congo to force belligerents there to de-escalate also cannot be ruled out.

The Outlook for New U.S. Strikes in Africa

Vietnam

A man walks past a billboard for the 14th Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam outside the National Convention Center in Hanoi on Jan. 15, 2026. 

Economics

The five-yearly event will likely codify a more centralized, security-anchored governing model, while setting ambitious goals for economic growth and administrative reforms, though internal and external pressures will hinder implementation.

Previewing Vietnam's 14th National Party Congress

Greenland

Europe

Germany

Finland

Denmark

France

Sweden

Norway

Netherlands

The HDMS Knud Rasmussen ship of the Danish Navy patrols the waters off of Nuuk, Greenland, on Jan. 20, 2026. 

Global Trade

Trump's threatened tariffs over his bid to acquire Greenland have turned the U.S.-EU trade dispute into a high-stakes geopolitical confrontation, raising the risk of a sustained trade war that would severely strain transatlantic economic ties and NATO cohesion.

Trump's Greenland Tariff Threat Escalates Transatlantic Tensions

Columns

On Geopolitics

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

Switzerland

A sniper police officer on the Congress hotel during the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum on Jan. 24, 2025, in the Alpine resort of Davos, Switzerland.

The Weekly Rundown: Davos, Europe Steps Up Greenland Deployments

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Somalia

Egypt

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Residents wave Somali flags as they attend a rally denouncing Israel's recognition of the breakaway region of Somaliland at Mogadishu Stadium in Mogadishu, Somalia, on Dec. 30, 2025. 

Two regional alignments are coalescing along the Red Sea and in the Horn of Africa, risking the escalation of proxy conflicts and longstanding rivalries.

The Unfolding Regional Realignments Along the Red Sea and Their Implications

Citizens gather to welcome the arrival of vehicles transporting Kurdish fighters from the northern city of Aleppo to the Kurdish-controlled northeastern city of Qamishli on Jan. 11, 2026.

The government's success in forcing the Kurdish-backed militia out of the city will likely reduce fighting there, but it may also lead to a larger localized conflict in the northeast that disrupts Kurdish integration and potentially oil exports.

In Syria, the SDF's Withdrawal From Aleppo Will Complicate Kurdish Integration Efforts

Snapshots

Romania

Moldova

Moldovan President Maia Sandu (R) and Romanian President Nicusor Dan on June 10, 2025, in Chisinau, Moldova. Sandu's backing of a hypothetical union signals that joining Romania could eventually emerge as an alternative strategy to Moldova's current plan to join the European Union as an independent state.

Maia Sandu's backing of a hypothetical union signals that joining Romania could eventually emerge as an alternative strategy to Moldova's current plan to join the European Union as an independent state.

Romanian-Moldovan Unification Remains Unlikely, Despite Moldovan President's Endorsement

Latest

U.S. President Donald Trump (center) holds up his signature on the founding charter among world leaders during a ceremony for the Board of Peace at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 22, 2026.

The U.S.-led endeavor's immediate priority will be expanding aid in Gaza, but internal divisions, international skepticism and Israeli interference will likely undermine its effectiveness, especially if the Israel-Hamas ceasefire collapses.

What To Make of Trump's 'Board of Peace'

The Federal Reserve's headquarters is seen in Washington, D.C.

Trump will soon be able to nominate a new Fed chair and governor. But unless the Supreme Court vastly increases the president's power to dismiss Fed governors, the bank will retain its independence, limiting the risk of market instability.

U.S. Fed Independence: Assessing Threats From Trump Nominations, Court Rulings

Iran

A photo of Israeli banknotes.

While Israel's economy has proven remarkably resilient during the years-long Gaza war with Hamas, persistent security risks and an upcoming election will present new challenges.

How Israel's Economy Will Weather Persistent Political and Security Concerns in 2026

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (right) meets with Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar at a hotel in New York City on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly meeting on Sept. 22, 2025. 

A trade deal could gradually reduce barriers in the tech, industrial and energy sectors, but progress will likely remain constrained by U.S. tariff uncertainty and India's reluctance to make concessions in sensitive sectors like agriculture.

Where Things Stand in U.S.-India Trade Talks

Israeli troops patrol the border fence with Syria near the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Israel-annexed Golan Heights on July 23, 2025. 

While the new U.S.-backed intelligence-sharing agreement will help temporarily ease cross-border tensions, unresolved security issues and structural constraints undermine the prospects for deeper normalization.

Syria-Israel Deal Paves Way for Broader Security Coordination, but Constraints Remain

Venezuela

Fuerte Tiuna, Venezuela's largest military complex, after a series of explosions Jan. 3, 2026, in Caracas amid U.S. strikes.

The detention of the Venezuelan president creates a power vacuum that risks triggering violent unrest while establishing a precedent for further U.S. interventionism in Latin America.

U.S. Capture of Maduro Could Lead to Instability and Unrest in Venezuela, Wider Region

A U.S. military MQ-9 Reaper drone sits on a tarmac at Rafael Hernandez Airport in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico, on Dec. 27, 2025.

The Trump administration will likely soon launch more strikes inside Venezuela following the reported CIA drone attack on a suspected drug port, though a U.S. ground invasion remains unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Trump Escalates Pressure on Venezuela With First Land Strike

Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on Dec. 26, 2025. 

Israel establishing military facilities in Somaliland would invite Houthi attacks against the territory and raise the likelihood of renewed disruptions to Red Sea shipping.


Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Raises the Stakes Along the Red Sea Corridor 

Eurasia

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Dec. 28, 2025.

While the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents have narrowed their differences on a 20-point peace framework, the Kremlin's insistence on full control of the Donbas complicates the prospects of a negotiated deal.

Ukraine Peace Deal Still Elusive Despite Trump-Zelensky Talks

The Sevington Inland Border Facility on April 29, 2024, in southeast England. Rejoining the EU customs framework would require London to accept a common external tariff and strict regulatory alignment, meaning a successful negotiation remains unlikely in the short to medium term.

Rejoining the bloc's customs framework would require London to accept a common external tariff and strict regulatory alignment, meaning a successful negotiation remains unlikely in the short to medium term.

Despite Growing Calls, U.K. Unlikely To Rejoin EU Customs Union

The U.S. Navy's Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group participates in joint operations with the U.S. Air Force on Nov. 13, 2025.

Increased military mobilizations, failed negotiations with Maduro and persistent aggressive rhetoric suggest the Trump administration will likely soon escalate its Caribbean military campaign to targeted strikes in Venezuelan territory.

The U.S. Remains Poised To Attack Venezuelan Territory

On Security

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

South Asia

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

U.S.-China Relations

Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025. 

Achieving South Arabian independence will require Yemen's Southern Transitional Council to overcome the historical challenges that have long plagued the governance of Yemen writ large, like tribalism and regionalism.

The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

Taiwan

Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.

The 2025 Taiwan National Defense Report reflects Taipei's growing intent and tactical capabilities for deterrence by denial against a Chinese invasion, but it also highlights persistent challenges that contribute to a continually rising risk of conflict through 2028.

Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation

Hamas militants arrive to secure the area as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on Dec. 1, 2025. 

In this phase of the conflict, Israel and Hamas aim to break one another's political will not through widespread violence but through attrition and exhaustion.

Hamas and Israel Evolve the Gaza Conflict

Kenya

Madagascar

South Africa

Chile

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Lebanon

Morocco

Tunisia

Indonesia

Philippines

Thailand

Serbia

Bangladesh

Nepal

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

Slovakia

Hungary

European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23. The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin met on Jan. 22 with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Reuters reported on Jan. 23.

Russia, Ukraine, U.S.: Trilateral Track Opens as Moscow Holds Firm on Territory

Cuba

Mexico

Energy

The U.S. Trump administration is considering imposing a total blockade on Cuba's oil imports as part of broader measures aimed at ousting the current socialist government on the island, Politico reported on Jan. 23. 

U.S., Cuba: Trump Administration Considers Full Oil Blockade on Cuba

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced on Jan. 23 the dissolution of the lower house of the Diet, with the campaign period set to begin on Jan. 27 and the vote scheduled for Feb. 8, marking the shortest window in Japan's history from dissolution to voting, Kyodo News reported on Jan. 23.

Japan: Takaichi Dissolves Lower House To Push Fiscal, Defense Expansion

European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will co-chair an India-EU summit during their visit to India from Jan. 25 to 28 and meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Reuters reported on Jan. 23.

India, EU: High-Ranking EU Officials To Visit India as FTA Negotiations Conclude

Vietnam's 14th National Party Congress concluded two days early on Jan. 23, with General Secretary To Lam unanimously reelected to a five-year term by the 180-member Central Committee, according to official announcements, which followed the election of a new Politburo and Central Committee.

Vietnam: Top Leader Secures Five-Year Term, 10% Growth Targets Set for Five Years

France's minority government survived two consecutive no-confidence votes in the National Assembly on Jan. 23 after Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu used Article 49.3 of the Constitution to push through the revenue section of the 2026 budget without a parliamentary vote, Le Figaro reported the same day.

France: Government Survives No-Confidence Votes, Set To Pass Full 2026 Budget

A Ukrainian serviceman from the 24th mechanized brigade prepares a Magura night drone to flight toward the front line in the area of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region late on April 29, 2025.

Ukraine's success in using cheap drones against Russia reveals how smaller states can leverage accessible technologies to impose disproportionate and sustained costs on a materially superior adversary.

Drones Are Redefining Asymmetric Warfare

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

Malian state media announced that the government would limit the passage of cars to pumping stations to once every 72 hours and motorcycles every 48 hours due to challenges in securing fuel supplies amid a persisting fuel blockade by al Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, Radio France Internationale reported on Jan. 22.

Mali: Government Announces Fuel Rationing Amid Persistent Supply Challenges

Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi met with U.S. President Donald Trump's son, Eric Trump, in the presence of Israeli President Isaac Herzog on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Reuters reported on Jan. 23.

Somaliland: Abdullahi Meets With Eric Trump, Israel's Herzog at Davos Summit

The United States is once more looking to withdraw from Syria, over a year after the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad and almost a decade after the defeat of the Islamic State's last major urban holdout at al-Bukamal in 2017, The Wall Street Journal reported on Jan. 22.

U.S., Syria: Washington Again Considers Exiting Syria

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

South Korea's Artificial Intelligence Act came into effect on Jan. 22, Reuters reported the same day.

South Korea: Seoul Rolls Out AI Safety Law

Media

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

What To Make of Trump's 'Board of Peace'

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia, Ukraine, U.S.: Trilateral Track Opens as Moscow Holds Firm on Territory

U.S., Cuba: Trump Administration Considers Full Oil Blockade on Cuba

Japan: Takaichi Dissolves Lower House To Push Fiscal, Defense Expansion

India, EU: High-Ranking EU Officials To Visit India as FTA Negotiations Conclude

Vietnam: Top Leader Secures Five-Year Term, 10% Growth Targets Set for Five Years

France: Government Survives No-Confidence Votes, Set To Pass Full 2026 Budget

Mali: Government Announces Fuel Rationing Amid Persistent Supply Challenges

Somaliland: Abdullahi Meets With Eric Trump, Israel's Herzog at Davos Summit

U.S., Syria: Washington Again Considers Exiting Syria

South Korea: Seoul Rolls Out AI Safety Law

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