Assessments

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Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Aug. 22, 2024

Iran

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian (C) greets parliament members after giving an address during a session to approve his new Cabinet appointments in Tehran on Aug. 21, 2024.

Economics

Politics

Social Issues

Pezeshkian's new Cabinet reveals his forthcoming focus on economic reform, the result of which will affect the prospects of future social reform and the succession process for Iran's next supreme leader.

Iran's Pezeshkian Prioritizes Economic Platform in Olive Branch to Conservatives

U.S.-Iran Relations

Snapshots

Ukraine

Russia

India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives for a working session on the second day of the G-7 summit in Schloss Elmau, Germany, on June 27, 2022. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The trip is likely aimed at addressing backlash from the prime minister's recent visit to Russia, as India tries to mitigate Western criticism and reinforce its neutrality in the Ukraine conflict.

Modi's Upcoming Visit to Ukraine Reflects India's Balancing Act

Mexico

Judicial workers on indefinite strike in front of the Federal Judicial Branch on Aug. 19 in Mexico City. Mexico's government is likely to pass several constitutional reforms by September that will likely reduce judicial independence, increase government control over the economy and harm the business environment in the long term.

Mexico's government is likely to pass several constitutional reforms by September that will likely reduce judicial independence, increase government control over the economy and harm the business environment in the long term.

What Judicial Reform Means for Mexico's Business Environment

Israel

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Israel will continue using its advanced desalination technology to foster better relations with Arab neighbors, but the Gaza conflict currently limits the success of this water diplomacy and will ultimately hinge on Tel Aviv's future political and military actions in the region.

How Israel Will Leverage Desalination in Its Regional Normalization Efforts

Angola

Botswana

Comoros

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Lesotho

Madagascar

Malawi

Mauritius

Mozambique

Namibia

Seychelles

South Africa

Eswatini

Tanzania

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Egypt

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

China

Vietnam

France

Yael Braun-Pivet, a French lawmaker for the ruling Renaissance party, delivers a speech after being reelected as National Assembly president following the third round of voting on July 18, 2024.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: France Resumes Political Horse-Trading, Blinken Returns to Middle East

Bangladesh

Bangladesh's military is likely to play a continued role in domestic politics, particularly if the general election is delayed and economic challenges and unrest worsen, and renewed episodes of social unrest are likely if the military takes measures to prevent the Awami League from returning to power.

The Bangladeshi Military's Expanded Role in Politics After Sheikh Hasina

Thailand

Former Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin addresses the media after the Thai Constitutional Court removed him from office Aug. 14 in Bangkok.

The removal of the Thai prime minister represents the military establishment's latest attempt to impose its influence on the government, which in the coming months and years will continue to constrain Thailand's economic growth while stoking social unrest.

The Thai Military Establishment Replaces Another Prime Minister

Media

Algeria

Podcasts

What changes can we expect in a potential second term for Tebboune?

Essential Geopolitics: What to Watch Ahead of Algeria's September Election

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

As Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 enters its final five years, the Saudi government is likely to deepen reforms designed to improve the country's economic attractiveness and performance. But as it struggles to compete with its neighbors' social reforms and absorb potential global geopolitical shocks, Riyadh could adopt more coercive policies at times.

Evaluating Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 as It Enters the Home Stretch

Columns

On Geopolitics

Germany

A recreational sailing yacht suspected of use in the sabotage of undersea gas pipelines stands in dry dock on the headland of Bug on Ruegen Island on March 17, 2023, near Dranske, Germany. In a high-profile article published late on Aug. 14, The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines under the Baltic Sea in late September 2022.

Energy

The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, a reminder to us of the importance of acknowledging and doing our best to mitigate our analytic biases.

What New Revelations About the Nord Stream Attack Can Remind Us About Analytical Biases

Latest

A protest in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on Aug. 15.

In Bangladesh, improving security will not eliminate the high risk of additional violence and protests in the coming weeks, while policy uncertainty and severe political tensions in the coming months will continue to threaten the operating environment for businesses.

In Bangladesh, Improving Security Does Not Spell Stability

Lebanese authorities inspect a car that was targeted with an Israeli strike and killed a Fatah official in the southern city of Sidon on Aug. 21, 2024. 

Should the strike signal the start of a larger assassination campaign against the controlling party of the Palestinian Authority, it would significantly increase the likelihood of a full-scale uprising in the West Bank.

What Israel's Killing of a Fatah Official Means for Gaza and the West Bank

Morocco

Algeria's President Abdelmadjid Tebboune meets with France's President Emmanuel Macron at the Borgo Egnazia resort on the sideline of the Group of Seven summit in Savelletri, Apulia region, Italy, on June 13, 2024.

The likely reelection of President Tebboune will yield a nationalist approach to foreign policy in the short term and additional economic reforms, though a growing internal debt burden will challenge economic growth.

Algeria's Political and Economic Course Seems Set as President Tebboune Readies Himself for Another Term

Global Elections

Romania

The EU flag is projected on the facade of Romania's parliament building in Bucharest on the eve of Europe Day on May 8, 2024. 

Romania's financial risks are manageable in the short-to-medium term, but failure to reduce its fiscal and current account deficits could expose the country to external shocks.

The Financial Risks of Romania's Twin Deficits

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio on Aug. 14 in Tokyo. The prime minister's resignation raises the prospect for change in domestic economic policy, such as cost-of-living issues, but major changes are unlikely regarding Japan's pursuit of military partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, and a national policy turn toward the left is not yet imminent.

The prime minister's resignation raises the prospect for change in domestic economic policy, such as cost-of-living issues, but major changes are unlikely regarding Japan's pursuit of military partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, and a national policy turn toward the left is not yet imminent.

In Japan, Kishida's Resignation Will Bring a New Face to the Same Old LDP

Poland

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on July 2 in Warsaw.

Poland's ongoing political volatility will continue to create policy and economic uncertainty leading up to the presidential election in mid-2025. If this persists after the election, it could have long-term negative effects on the country's appeal to investors.

Political Polarization Fuels Uncertainty Ahead of Poland's 2025 Presidential Election

Denmark

Sweden

An apartment block damaged when a gang-related bomb exploded early Feb. 2 in Sundbyberg, Sweden. Persistently high and increasingly politicized violent crime rates in Sweden could negatively affect the country's political stability, international reputation, social cohesion and economic growth.

If unresolved, rising violent criminal activity could exacerbate social tensions, cause political instability and lead to a gradual deterioration of the country's business environment.

Persistent Gang Violence in Sweden Threatens Political Stability and the Economy

Kazakhstan

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev waits to greet foreign leaders during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states leaders' summit in Astana on July 4, 2024.

Continued liberalization will strengthen Kazakhstan's economic outlook in the coming years, but close ties to Russia and China may stifle foreign investment and limit growth.

Will Economic Liberalization Be Enough To Attract Foreign Investment in Kazakhstan?

United Kingdom

Far-right activists gather in Sunderland, England, on Aug. 2, 2024, after misinformation spread via social media falsely attributed to a Muslim migrant to the recent murders of three girls in Southport.

The unrest following a fatal attack falsely blamed on a Muslim migrant underscores the growing threat of far-right extremism and disinformation in the U.K. and Europe more broadly, but the riots are unlikely to notably impact the new Labour government.

The New U.K. Government Faces Its First Test Amid Rash of Far-Right Riots

Ireland

Labour leader and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer (R) speaks with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (L) on July 07, 2024 in Edinburgh, Scotland. The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions. 

The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions.

The New British Government and Scottish and Northern Irish Separatism

Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives a press conference during the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 12, 2023.

Erdogan's consolidation of power has made Turkish economic policies more beholden to the president's personal and political whims, and less to institutional checks and balances.

Turkey: A Case Study in Economic Policymaking Under Increased Political Centralization

A man walks in front of the Maraya (Mirror), the world's largest mirrored building, in the desert canyon of Ashar Valley in Saudi Arabia's northwestern Al-Ula desert on Jan. 29, 2024.

Amid the rising costs of climate change, Saudi Arabia hopes an increasing reliance on market forces will keep its economy in the black.

Will Climate Change Singe Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030?

The unequal distribution of freshwater shapes geopolitical patterns by driving competition, conflict and development, while water stress -- intensified by urbanization, agriculture, industry and climate change -- threatens social stability and economic security, as this RANE series will explore.

The Geopolitics of Water: An Introduction 

Then-Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman holds a press conference in Riyadh on April 25, 2016, after unveiling the kingdom's economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030.

The kingdom's ambitious economic diversification plan has managed to survive the various geopolitical shocks that have emerged in recent years. But can it continue to do so?

Saudi Arabia's Adapted Vision 2030 Still Faces an Uncertain Future

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Ukraine to hold talks with President Volodymyr Zelensky, urging him to engage in negotiations with Russia to end the war while offering India’s support as a friend in the peace process, The Economic Times reported on Aug. 23. 

India: Modi's Visit to Ukraine Yields Elevated Ties, Four Agreements

Canada

Less than 17 hours after Canadian National Railway, or CN, and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Southern, or CPKC, locked out over 9,000 workers and suspended their rail operations in Canada and the United States on Aug. 22, Labour Minister Steve McKinnon ordered the Canada Industrial Relations Board, or CIRB, to trigger binding arbitration, BBC reported the same day.

Canada: Labour Ministry Triggers Binding Arbitration To End Rail Lockout

Argentina

Argentine President Javier Milei will veto a pension reform bill Congress approved that aimed to increase pensions in line with the country's triple-digit annual inflation, Clarin reported on Aug. 23.

Argentina: President's Pension Reform Veto Unlikely To Fuel Significant Political Instability

Europe

The British government denied media reports that it is reconsidering a proposal by the European Commission for a youth mobility deal that the previous Conservative government and now ruling Labour Party rejected in April, the Financial Times reported on Aug. 22, citing a government spokesperson. 

U.K., EU: U.K. Labour Government Says It Is Not Seeking EU Youth Mobility Deal

Afghanistan

The United Arab Emirates accepted the credentials of the ambassador of the Afghan Taliban, Al-Monitor reported on Aug. 23.

UAE, Afghanistan: UAE Accepts Afghan Taliban Ambassador

Libya

Aguila Saleh, the head of the eastern Libya-based House of Representatives, warned that the western-based presidential council's plan to replace Central Bank of Libya Governor Sadiq al-Kabir "may result in shutting down oil and stopping the transfer of its revenues to the central bank," according to an Aug. 23 post on X by The Libya Observer.

Libya: Head of Eastern Libya-Based Parliament Warns Central Bank Crisis Could Result in Oil Blockade

China's commerce ministry held closed-door meetings with Chinese automobile companies and industry associations, in which ministry officials claimed they "listened to the opinions and suggestions of industry, experts and scholars on raising the import tariffs on fuel-powered cars with large displacement engines," the South China Morning Post reported on Aug. 23.

China, EU: China Mulls Tariffs on EU Automobiles Ahead of October

Indonesia

Thousands protested outside Indonesia's parliament building in Jakarta against a legislative move overturning a Constitutional Court decision that prevented President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo's son, Kaesang Pangarep, from running for deputy governor of Jakarta because he did not meet the age threshold of 30, The Jakarta Post reported on Aug. 22.

Indonesia: Protests Rock Several Cities, Demonstrate Limit to President's Power

Science & Technology

Australia

Fiji

New Zealand

North Korea

Philippines

Singapore

South Korea

A 3D rendering of Southeast Asia from space at night with city lights showing Southeast Asian cities in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.

U.S.-China Relations

In the Asia-Pacific, countries are increasingly pursuing complex networks of political, economic and defense ties as part of a burgeoning "multi-alignment" strategy that seeks to avoid U.S.-China strategic competition.

Examining 'Multi-Alignment' in the Asia-Pacific

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Iraq

Clashes between the Iraqi army and members of Jund al-Imam, a faction of the Popular Mobilization Forces, or PMF, erupted in Karbala, Iraq, after four of the group's vehicles attempted to pass through an army pedestrian checkpoint during the Shiite Arbaeen pilgrimage, Al-Monitor reported on Aug. 22.

Iraq: Army Clashes With Popular Mobilization Forces Group

Canadian National Railway, or CN, and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Southern, or CPKC, ​​announced that they had shut down their operations, locking out 9,000 members of the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference union who had been threatening to go on strike due to a monthslong dispute over a new contract, Reuters reported on Aug. 22.

Canada: Railways Begin Worker Lockout To Push for Contract Agreement

Finland

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

In Bangladesh, Improving Security Does Not Spell Stability

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

India: Modi's Visit to Ukraine Yields Elevated Ties, Four Agreements

Canada: Labour Ministry Triggers Binding Arbitration To End Rail Lockout

Argentina: President's Pension Reform Veto Unlikely To Fuel Significant Political Instability

U.K., EU: U.K. Labour Government Says It Is Not Seeking EU Youth Mobility Deal

UAE, Afghanistan: UAE Accepts Afghan Taliban Ambassador

Libya: Head of Eastern Libya-Based Parliament Warns Central Bank Crisis Could Result in Oil Blockade

China, EU: China Mulls Tariffs on EU Automobiles Ahead of October

Indonesia: Protests Rock Several Cities, Demonstrate Limit to President's Power

Iraq: Army Clashes With Popular Mobilization Forces Group

Canada: Railways Begin Worker Lockout To Push for Contract Agreement

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