Assessments

Jordan

Lebanon

Syria

Walid Jumblatt, the Druze former leader of Lebanon's Progressive Socialist Party, and his son and current party head, Taymur Jumblatt, meet with Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, interim prime minister Mohammad al-Bashir and other Druze leaders during a Dec. 22 visit to Damascus, Syria. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's leadership in Syria will likely embolden Islamists in both Lebanon and Jordan, while Syria's turbulent political transition will likely prompt another wave of refugees into both neighboring countries.

Military & Security

Politics

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's leadership in Syria will likely embolden Islamists in both Lebanon and Jordan, while Syria's turbulent political transition will likely prompt another wave of refugees into both neighboring countries.

Gauging the Regional Fallout of Syrian Regime Change

Algeria

Morocco

Tunisia

The Geopolitics of Water

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

North Africa will struggle to combat its worsening drought amid overconsumption, mismanagement and technological shortcomings.

The Geopolitics of Water: A Prolonged Drought Dries Up North Africa's Resources

Columns

On Geopolitics

United States

China

Statements made by Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk, offer insight into how his next administration will approach the regulation (or lack thereof) of AI, online content, data and monopolistic business practices.

Previewing Trump's Tech Policies

U.S.-China Relations

Mozambique

France

Anti-riot police officers with dogs walk past burning barricades made by protesters in Maputo, Mozambique, on Nov. 7, 2024. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A New French Government, a Ruling on Mozambique's Disputed Election

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Media

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Podcasts

What can Trump's nominees for positions in Middle Eastern diplomacy tell us about his approach to the region?

Essential Geopolitics: U.S.-Middle East Relations Under a Second Trump Term

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

What is the future trajectory of the peace process?

Essential Geopolitics: Implications of Cancelled Peace Talks between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags. Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025.

Cyber

Energy

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025.

2025 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

U.S.-Iran Relations

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 19, 2024

South Korea

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol speaks during a news broadcast on a television at a train station in Seoul on Dec. 3, 2024, after Yoon declared emergency martial law.

Despite lawmakers voting to impeach the president, there is still ample room for more political tumult in the months ahead, keeping South Korea's economic and foreign policy trajectory in limbo.

Yoon's Impeachment Opens a New Chapter in South Korea's Saga of Political Instability

Argentina

President of Argentina Javier Milei speaks during a joint declaration with Prime Minister of Italy Giorgia Meloni (not in frame) on Nov. 20, 2024, in Buenos Aires, Argentina. 

Despite rising poverty and protests, Argentina's President Javier Milei will maintain enough support in 2025 to advance economic reforms that stabilize inflation, attract investment and gradually ease capital controls.

What to Expect From Argentina After Milei's First Year in Office 

Bangladesh

When can we expect elections in Bangladesh following Sheikh Hasina's resignation?

Essential Geopolitics: The Future of Bangladeshi Politics

Latest

Iran

Russia

India

Water utilities are uniquely vulnerable to cyberattacks due to frequent financial and security limitations, exposing water-stressed countries to threats from hacktivists and foreign adversaries.

 The Geopolitics of Water: Cyberattacks' Impact on Water Stress in the U.S. and Beyond

Israeli tanks and armored vehicles line up the area outside the Druze village of Majdal Shams on the fence with the buffer zone that separates the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights from the rest of Syria on Dec. 9, 2024.

Israel's efforts to mitigate threats from war-torn Syria will risk triggering domestic and international blowback, and opening the door to a proxy conflict with Turkey.

Israel Expands Its Presence in Post-Assad Syria 

Snapshots

Increased EU purchases of U.S. fossil fuels may ease trade tensions and facilitate talks with the incoming Trump administration, but they are unlikely to alone defuse the risk of tariffs and other trade disputes in the years ahead.

Can the EU Avoid Trump's Tariffs by Importing More U.S. Oil and Gas?

South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol declares martial law on Dec. 3, 2024, in Seoul, South Korea. 

Legal, social and political pressures will likely still force Yoon out of office in the coming months, bringing a liberal president to power who would pursue pro-labor policies and reorient South Korea's foreign relations.

South Korea's President Yoon Not Impeached, but His End Is Nigh

A military vehicle burns after it was hit by Syrian regime forces Dec. 7 in Syria's Hama governorate. After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

Syrian Rebels Pushing to Damascus, Regime Facing Imminent Collapse

Romania

Demonstrators hold EU and Romanian national flags during a pro-European rally in support of democracy at University Square in Bucharest, Romania, on Dec. 5, 2024, a few days before key elections. 

The ruling may bolster support for anti-establishment parties, undermine public trust in Romania's institutions and establish a dangerous precedent in other parts of Europe.

Romania's Election Annulment Raises the Stakes Domestically and Abroad

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivers a speech at the National Assembly, the French Parliament's lower house, in Paris on Dec. 2, 2024.

France faces heightened political instability as no-confidence votes threaten the government following Prime Minister Barnier's use of Article 49.3 to pass the 2025 budget without parliamentary approval.

Barnier's Budget Gambit Triggers Political Showdown in French Parliament

Canada

Mexico

NYSE workers during morning trading Nov. 26 in New York. Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump is unlikely to place large tariffs on Canada and Mexico immediately upon taking office, but the mere threat to do so will likely chill investment in North America amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.

Though tariffs are unlikely, threats alone will likely chill investment amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.

Trump's Tariff Threats Alone Likely to Chill North American Investment

Romanian presidential candidate Calin Georgescu is seen during a television interview on Nov. 13, 2024. 

Georgescu's shock victory in the first round of the presidential election reflects a surge in anti-establishment sentiment that could yield similar surprises in Romania's Dec. 1 parliamentary elections.

A Far-Right Dark Horse Emerges in Romania's Presidential Race

Global Elections

Senegal

Voters wait in line outside a voting station in Dakar on Nov. 17, 2024, during Senegal's parliamentary elections.

Senegal's ruling PASTEF party secured a strong parliamentary majority in the Nov. 17 elections, which paves the way for the implementation of its reformist manifesto and the advancement of much-needed fiscal consolidation measures.

What's Next for Senegal After the President's Landslide Victory in Snap Legislative Elections

United Arab Emirates

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

Japan

South Korean marines participate in joint exercises with U.S. forces Sept. 2 in Pohang, South Korea. Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of People in Conflict

Ukraine

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

On Security

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.

For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2

A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.

Reports that Trump's transition team may propose establishing an outside board to evaluate senior military officers raise serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces in the years ahead.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 1

An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel. 

In gauging how the conflict will evolve, much will depend on the level of Trump's support for Israel and hostility toward Iran.

How the Israel-Iran Conflict May Play Out With a Trump Presidency

North Korea

On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.

Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory

Afghanistan

Pakistan

Pakistan's Foreign Office acknowledged Dec. 26 that the country had carried out ''operations in border areas,'' days after Pakistan's reported Dec. 24 airstrikes on alleged Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan camps in Afghanistan's Paktika province, Dawn reported Dec. 26.

Pakistan: Country Confirms It Conducted Airstrikes on Militant Camps in Afghanistan

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

A Russian air defense system was responsible for the downing of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 on Dec. 25 near the Kazakh city of Aktau, which killed 38 people, Euronews reported Dec. 26, citing unidentified Azerbaijani government sources familiar with a preliminary investigation.

Azerbaijan, Russia: Azerbaijani Sources Claim Russian Air Defenses Downed Civilian Passenger Flight

Finland

Finnish authorities have seized and boarded a Russian oil tanker suspected of intentionally damaging an electricity sea cable connecting Estonia and Finland on Dec. 25, the Financial Times reported Dec. 26.

Europe: Russian Shadow Fleet Suspected of Electricity Cable Cut in Baltic Sea

Ecuador

A judge in Ecuador accepted a court filing on Dec. 24 alleging that the four minors who recently went missing in Guayaquil were forcibly disappeared after being detained by soldiers on Dec. 8, Prensa Latina reported Dec. 26. 

Ecuador: Judge Orders Investigation Into Military's Involvement in Missing Minors Incident

South Korea's opposition Democratic Party on Dec. 26 submitted a motion to the National Assembly to impeach Prime Minister and acting President Han Duck-soo, with plans to vote on the impeachment on Dec. 27.

South Korea: Opposition Submits Motion To Impeach Acting President, Prolonging Political Instability

China's Ministry of Commerce announced it will extend its anti-dumping investigation into brandy imports from the European Union until April 5, 2025, citing ''the complexity of the case,'' Reuters reported Dec. 25.

EU, China: Beijing Extends Anti-Dumping Investigation Into European Brandy

Yemen

The Israeli Air Force struck several Houthi-controlled targets in Yemen on Dec. 26, including the Sanaa airport, the al-Dailami Air Base and a power plant in Hodeidah, Al Jazeera reported the same day.

Israel, Yemen: Israel Strikes Houthi Infrastructure in Sanaa, Hodeidah

Israeli forces advanced further into southern Lebanon's Wadi al-Hujeir area on Dec. 26, conducting sweeping operations and deploying heavy machine gun fire before retreating later to Wadi al-Slouki, according to a same-day report by Anadolu Agency.

Israel, Lebanon: IDF Forces Advance Further Into Southern Lebanon, Violating Ceasefire

Science & Technology

3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word "declassified" printed on a document.

The outgoing U.S. Biden administration's liberal use of "intelligence diplomacy" as a tool of foreign policy raises questions about how the incoming Trump administration will take up the torch.

Declassified: The Future of U.S. 'Intelligence Diplomacy'

People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of North Korea's artillery firing, at a railway station in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2024.

With both sides threatening overwhelming retaliation and having greater capabilities to make good on those threats, provocations along the North-South border now carry a greater risk of erupting into military clashes.

The Rising Risk of Military Clashes on the Korean Peninsula

China will issue 3 trillion yuan (about $411 billion) worth of treasury bonds in 2025, Reuters reported Dec. 24. The move is likely intended to revive consumer sentiment and help businesses in the country.

China: Beijing To Issue $411 Billion of Treasury Bonds in 2025

South Korea's main opposition Democratic Party has prepared an impeachment motion against Prime Minister and acting President Han Duck-soo over his vetoes of two special counsel bills against suspended President Yook Suk Yeol and his wife, First Lady Kim Keon Hee, Yonhap News Agency reported Dec. 24.

South Korea: Opposition Threatens To Impeach Acting President

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

2025 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Pakistan: Country Confirms It Conducted Airstrikes on Militant Camps in Afghanistan

Azerbaijan, Russia: Azerbaijani Sources Claim Russian Air Defenses Downed Civilian Passenger Flight

Europe: Russian Shadow Fleet Suspected of Electricity Cable Cut in Baltic Sea

Ecuador: Judge Orders Investigation Into Military's Involvement in Missing Minors Incident

South Korea: Opposition Submits Motion To Impeach Acting President, Prolonging Political Instability

EU, China: Beijing Extends Anti-Dumping Investigation Into European Brandy

Israel, Yemen: Israel Strikes Houthi Infrastructure in Sanaa, Hodeidah

Israel, Lebanon: IDF Forces Advance Further Into Southern Lebanon, Violating Ceasefire

China: Beijing To Issue $411 Billion of Treasury Bonds in 2025

South Korea: Opposition Threatens To Impeach Acting President

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