<p>Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region&rsquo;s great population centers. India is the region&rsquo;s dominant country, home to the world&rsquo;s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world&rsquo;s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.</p>

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. 

South Asia

Afghanistan

Bangladesh

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Maldives

Nepal

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The India-Pakistan Rivalry

The Politics of Pipelines

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The Pulse of Political Islam

Instability in Central Asia

South Asian Militancy

India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

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A digital illustration of the Indian and Canadian flags.

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India and Canada's efforts to improve relations could see them resume trade talks after a two-year hiatus. But lingering mistrust, particularly over Sikh separatist activity in Canada, may hinder deeper progress.

India and Canada's Diplomatic Reset: Opportunities and Challenges

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Afghan men gather in support of the Taliban government during a rally in Khost, Afghanistan, on Oct. 13, 2025, amid heavy cross-border clashes with Pakistan.

Military & Security

Further violence is likely in the coming weeks and potentially longer, as the two countries' entrenched disputes regarding their shared border and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan will challenge international peace efforts.

Deadly Border Clashes Sharply Escalate Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions

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On Geopolitics

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

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Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast Webcast

U.S.-China Relations

The fourth quarter will bring shifting trade tactics, evolving wars, and pivotal elections and flashpoints worldwide that will test governments’ stability and market confidence.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

A department store on Sept. 5, 2025, in Mumbai, after the Indian government slashed GST rates. While the government's tax changes will support growth by boosting disposable incomes and household consumption, they are likely only a short-term measure that threatens to strain some Indian states' budgets.

While the government's tax changes will support growth by boosting disposable incomes and household consumption, they are likely only a short-term measure that threatens to strain some Indian states' budgets.

India's GST Reforms Will Weigh on State Finances 

Demonstrators carrying Nepal's national flag stage a protest outside the parliament building in Kathmandu on Sept. 8, 2025, against social media prohibitions and government corruption. 

Despite the prime minister's resignation and the lifting of a controversial social media ban, risks of violent unrest will likely persist as long-standing political instability deepens.

Nepal's Political Instability Deepens as Violent Protests Prompt Prime Minister's Resignation

China

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Participants of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit 2025 pose for photos in Tianjin, China, on Sept. 1, 2025.

Energy

U.S. trade uncertainty will help China deepen trade ties with its Central Asian neighbors and infrastructure ties with Russia, but its relations with India will remain inhibited by border disputes and differing defense priorities.

China Positions Itself as Growth Catalyst for Central Asia at SCO Summit

United States

A freight train carrying cargo containers rides along a railway track in Ajmer, India, on Aug. 26, 2025. 

While India will remain engaged in U.S. trade talks, a deal that secures relief from Trump's 50% tariff will remain elusive amid New Delhi's reluctance to reduce its agricultural protections and Russian oil purchases. 


U.S. Tariffs Strain India's Exports Amid Stalled Trade Talks

The Geopolitics of Trade

Environment, Science & Technology

Geopolitical, security and environmental risks threaten to disrupt trade through crucial waterways, including the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the Suez Canal, the Danish and Turkish straits, and the Panama Canal.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Threats to Maritime Chokepoints Endanger Global Trade, Part 2

On Oct. 16, U.S. President Donald Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured him that India would halt oil purchases from Russia, The Economic Times reported on Oct. 17.

India: Trump Claims Modi Assured Him India Would Stop Purchasing Russian Oil

Pakistan's foreign ministry announced it had agreed to a 48-hour ceasefire with the Afghan Taliban starting at 6 p.m. Pakistan standard time, hours after clashes resurged following days of relative calm, Reuters reported on Oct. 15.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Fresh Clashes Erupt and Last Hours Before Islamabad, Kabul Agree to 48-Hour Ceasefire

The International Monetary Fund announced that it reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan, paving the way for the release of $1.2 billion upon executive board approval, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 15. 

Pakistan: IMF and Pakistan Reach Staff-Level Agreement on $1.2B Disbursement

Intense clashes erupted between Afghan Taliban fighters and Pakistani security forces along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border late on Oct. 11, days after the Taliban accused Pakistan of carrying out airstrikes in Afghanistan, AP reported on Oct. 12.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Border Clashes Erupt Days After Strike Accusations

The Afghan Taliban's spokesperson said in a late Oct. 9 post on X that the sound of an explosion had just been heard in Afghanistan's capital, and added that authorities were investigating the incident but that no damage had been reported yet.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Kabul Explosion May Be a Pakistani Strike Against TTP Leader

Afghan Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi landed in India to begin a scheduled Oct. 9-16 visit, marking the Taliban's highest-level visit to India since the group retook control of Afghanistan in August 2021, Reuters reported Oct. 9.

Afghanistan: Taliban Foreign Minister Begins Trip to India, Seeking to Foster Bilateral Ties

The International Monetary Fund has reached a staff-level agreement with Sri Lanka to conclude the fifth review of its reform program, unlocking roughly $347 million in financing, Reuters reported Oct. 9.

Sri Lanka: Country Reaches Staff-Level Agreement With IMF, Unlocking $347 Million in Funding

Australia

Australia and India signed a submarine agreement, pledged deeper information sharing and outlined defense industrial collaboration, AP reported on Oct. 9.

South Asia

SITUATION REPORTS

India: Trump Claims Modi Assured Him India Would Stop Purchasing Russian Oil

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Fresh Clashes Erupt and Last Hours Before Islamabad, Kabul Agree to 48-Hour Ceasefire

Pakistan: IMF and Pakistan Reach Staff-Level Agreement on $1.2B Disbursement

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Border Clashes Erupt Days After Strike Accusations

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Kabul Explosion May Be a Pakistani Strike Against TTP Leader

Afghanistan: Taliban Foreign Minister Begins Trip to India, Seeking to Foster Bilateral Ties

Sri Lanka: Country Reaches Staff-Level Agreement With IMF, Unlocking $347 Million in Funding

Australia, India: Canberra, New Delhi Sign Submarine Pact

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