<p>Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region&rsquo;s great population centers. India is the region&rsquo;s dominant country, home to the world&rsquo;s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world&rsquo;s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.</p>

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. 

South Asia

Afghanistan

Bangladesh

Bhutan

India

Maldives

Nepal

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

The Politics of Pipelines

Banking

Crossing Borders

Globalization

Social Issues

The Pulse of Political Islam

Instability in Central Asia

South Asian Militancy

India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

Assessments

A protest on Jan. 8 in the Bangladeshi capital of Dhaka.

Politics

If Bangladesh's interim government does hold a vote due to the lack of progress on electoral reforms, the risk of instability, economic difficulties and public discontent will rise, potentially leading to military intervention. 

How Bangladeshi Stability Depends Upon a Prompt Election 

United States

A general view shows Sri Lanka's Colombo port on April 9, 2025.

Economics

Global Trade

Textile exports from Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan will suffer under new U.S. tariffs, worsening economic hardships and risking political instability.

South Asia's Textile Industry Reels From U.S. Tariffs

Pedestrians walk past a broadcast screen of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) in Mumbai on April 3, 2025, airing news of U.S. President Donald Trump unveiling sweeping new trade tariffs. 

If implemented, Trump's threatened 27% tariff would severely hurt certain Indian sectors (e.g., pharmaceuticals), though other sectors (e.g., textiles) could benefit if India's main competitors end up facing even higher tariffs.

For India, High U.S. Tariffs Offer a Mixed Bag

Sub-Saharan Africa

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Middle East and North Africa

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Cyber

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Intensifying trade wars, a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, continued volatility in the Middle East and consequential elections in key countries will shape the quarter.

2025 Second-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Global Elections

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Snapshots

New Zealand

United Kingdom

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L) walks with New Zealand's Prime Minister Christopher Luxon (R) before their meeting at the Hyderabad House in New Delhi, India, on March 17, 2025. 

U.S. tariff threats are pushing India to revamp negotiations over free trade agreements, but protectionist trade policies and other obstacles will challenge the progression of talks.

India Dusts Off Old FTA Negotiations Ahead of U.S. Tariffs

Canada

Saudi Arabia

South Korea

Ukraine

Canadian flags are seen outside a building in Ottawa. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Canada's Ruling Liberals Pick a New Leader, India and the EU Hold Trade Talks 

Media

Podcasts

How might U.S. President Donald Trump's economic policy affect emerging and developing markets?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Emerging Markets

How will the global risk landscape evolve over the course of the year?

Essential Geopolitics: RANE's Forecast Trends for 2025

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Ethiopia

Kenya

Rwanda

Israel

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Russia

Damage on Feb. 13 in the Jabaliya refugee camp in northern Gaza.

The Weekly Rundown: Mideast Ceasefires and Arab Gaza Proposals, the AU Summit

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks during a luncheon at the U.S. State Department on June 23, 2023, in Washington, D.C.

Discussions between the two leaders will likely focus on addressing India's trade surplus with the U.S., exploring ways to mitigate potential tariffs, and deepening defense cooperation.

What To Expect From Modi's Meeting With Trump

Pakistan and Bangladesh held their first foreign secretary-level talks in 15 years in Dhaka, Bangladesh, Geo News reported on April 17.

Pakistan, Bangladesh: Foreign Secretaries Meet for First Time in 15 Years

India's Enforcement Directorate filed a money laundering case against senior leaders of the main opposition Indian National Congress party, including Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi, for allegedly using a shell company to illegally acquire assets worth $300 million from the publisher of the National Herald newspaper, Reuters reported on April 15.

India: Senior Opposition Leaders Accused of Money Laundering

Comoros

Djibouti

Eritrea

Madagascar

Mauritius

Mozambique

Seychelles

South Africa

Tanzania

United Arab Emirates

China

India is conducting its largest-ever naval exercise off the east coast of Africa, known as the Africa-India Key Maritime Engagement, or AIKEYME, with 10 other African countries on April 13-18, Radio France Internationale reported on April 16.

East Africa: India Holds Its Largest Naval Exercise With East African Countries

India's Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs issued a notification on April 8 rescinding a June 2020 circular that enabled Bangladesh to trans-ship goods through India's Land Customs Stations, Indian Express reported April 9.

India: Country Ends Trans-Shipment Facility for Bangladesh After Dhaka Hints at Strengthening Ties With China

The Reserve Bank of India cut its key repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 6.00% for the second time in a row, aiming to stimulate the sluggish economy amid the impact of new U.S. tariffs, Reuters reported on April 9.

India: Central Bank Cuts Rates Amid Rising Growth Risks From U.S. Tariffs

During his three-day state visit to Sri Lanka from April 4 to 6, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held high-level talks with Sri Lankan President Anura Dissanayake and signed seven memorandums of understanding across various sectors, including defense, energy, digital infrastructure, health and trade, Times of India reported April 5. 

India, Sri Lanka: Countries Sign Defense and Energy Agreements

On the sidelines of the BIMSTEC summit in Bangkok, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Bangladesh's interim leader Muhammad Yunus for the first time since former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's departure, Reuters reported on April 4. 

India, Bangladesh: On the Sidelines of BIMSTEC, Modi and Yunus Discuss Bilateral Issues

The lower house of India's parliament passed a contentious bill that, among other things, would add non-Muslims to boards that manage Muslim land endowments and enhance the government's role in determining ownership of disputed lands, Reuters reported April 3.

India: Lower House Passes Contentious Reform of Muslim Land Endowments

South Asia

SITUATION REPORTS

Pakistan, Bangladesh: Foreign Secretaries Meet for First Time in 15 Years

India: Senior Opposition Leaders Accused of Money Laundering

East Africa: India Holds Its Largest Naval Exercise With East African Countries

India: Country Ends Trans-Shipment Facility for Bangladesh After Dhaka Hints at Strengthening Ties With China

India: Central Bank Cuts Rates Amid Rising Growth Risks From U.S. Tariffs

India, Sri Lanka: Countries Sign Defense and Energy Agreements

India, Bangladesh: On the Sidelines of BIMSTEC, Modi and Yunus Discuss Bilateral Issues

India: Lower House Passes Contentious Reform of Muslim Land Endowments

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