<p>Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region&rsquo;s great population centers. India is the region&rsquo;s dominant country, home to the world&rsquo;s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world&rsquo;s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.</p>

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. 

South Asia

Afghanistan

Bangladesh

Bhutan

India

Maldives

Nepal

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

The Politics of Pipelines

Banking

Crossing Borders

Globalization

Social Issues

The Pulse of Political Islam

Instability in Central Asia

South Asian Militancy

India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

Assessments

Ethiopia

Kenya

South Africa

Brazil

Egypt

Iran

United Arab Emirates

China

Indonesia

Russia

Moldova

Vehicles pass by a banner thanking outgoing Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and congratulating President-elect Prabowo Subianto and Vice President-elect Gibran Rakabuming Raka ahead of their Oct. 20 inauguration in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Oct. 17, 2024.

Economics

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An Impeachment Case in Kenya, an Inauguration in Indonesia

Snapshots

Canada

Indian policemen stand guard outside the entrance of the High Commission of Canada in New Delhi on Oct. 15, 2024. 

The dispute over India's alleged covert activities on Canadian soil will raise the risk of restricted consular services and protests in both countries, but major economic disruptions are unlikely.

India and Canada's Diplomatic Rift Hits a New Low

Incoming Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah on Jan. 27, 2023, in the Indian city of Srinagar in Kashmir. Jammu and Kashmir's new government will attempt to seek a restoration of full autonomy or at least statehood for the territory, but it will bump up against firm resistance from New Delhi, increasing the likelihood of violent unrest and Pakistani pressure.

Jammu and Kashmir's new government will attempt to seek a restoration of full autonomy or at least statehood for the territory, but it will bump up against firm resistance from New Delhi, increasing the likelihood of violent unrest and Pakistani pressure.

Frustration Will Build in Kashmir as India Ignores the Movement to Restore Autonomy

United States

Israel

Israel's Iron Dome air defense system intercepts rockets fired from southern Lebanon on Sept. 27, 2024, over the Upper Galilee region in northern Israel. The Security Cabinet of Israel has yet to decide exactly how to retaliate against Iran for its Oct. 1 missile barrage against the country, but Israel clearly is seeking U.S. approval for an operation that might yet pull the U.S. back into active defense.

Military & Security

The Weekly Rundown: A Shanghai Cooperation Organization Meeting, Chinese Financial Support Measures

U.S.-Iran Relations

An aerial view of the island of Male, which is the capital of the Maldives.

If it defaults on its Islamic bonds, the island nation will be forced to seek more financial aid from India and China, which would heighten macroeconomic instability and erode investor confidence.

Trouble in Paradise: The Maldives' Looming Debt Default

Anura Kumara Dissanayake (center) gestures as he leaves the office of Sri Lanka's Election Commission in Colombo on Sept. 22, 2024, following his victory in the country's presidential election. 

President Dissanayake's left-wing agenda will run up against IMF commitments and an opposition-controlled parliament, raising the risk of a snap ballot that could reshape the island nation's political landscape.

What Challenges Lay Ahead for Sri Lanka's New President?

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Japan

Germany

The site of an Israeli strike on Sept. 19 in the southern Lebanese border village of Mahmoudiyeh. Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah will continue to intensify in the next week.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: Escalating Israel-Hezbollah Conflict, the Sri Lankan Presidential Election

Differing views on the country's agreement with the IMF and austerity measures, social issues involving Tamils and Muslims, and balancing relations with India and China heighten the risk of social unrest, delays in financial support, and uncertainty in economic planning and reforms. 

Sri Lankan Presidential Candidates Face an Electorate Upset by the Economy

Global Elections

Turkey

Cambodia

France

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

The Geopolitics of Water

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

The escalating impacts of climate change and water scarcity will inflame tensions between Central Asian countries, raising the risk of violent state conflict in the coming decades. 

The Looming Threat of Central Asian 'Water Wars'

2024 Elections: Sri Lanka 

Sri Lanka's Sept. 21 presidential election will pit four candidates against one another, portending various political and economic risks.

2024 Elections: Sri Lanka

India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced that India and China had reached an agreement for patrolling their disputed border that may lead to "disengagement and eventually a resolution of the issues that had arisen in these areas in 2020," though Beijing did not immediately comment on the announcement, AP reported on Oct. 21.

India, China: Countries Reach Border Patrolling Agreement in Interest of Disengagement

Pakistan's President Asif Ali Zardari signed the 26th Constitutional Amendment Bill into law based on the recommendation of Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif after Parliament approved it, Geo News reported on Oct. 21.

Pakistan: Constitutional Amendment Reduces Judicial Power

The United States charged former Indian intelligence officer Vikash Yadav for allegedly orchestrating a failed plot to assassinate Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a Sikh separatist and critic of India, in New York City, Reuters reported on Oct. 18. 

U.S., India: U.S. Charges Former Indian Intelligence Official in Foiled Murder Plot Against Sikh Separatist

Pakistan's Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazlur Rehman party announced a consensus with the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, or PML-N, and the Pakistan People's Party on judicial reforms through a constitutional amendment, Arab News reported on Oct. 17.

Pakistan: Judicial Reforms Gain Support as PTI Calls for Protests

India's Ministry of External Affairs recalled its charge d'affaires from Canada, announcing plans to withdraw the high commissioner and other diplomats and officials from the country as well, The New York Times reported on Oct. 14.

India, Canada: New Delhi Recalls Diplomats Over Canadian Investigation

Pakistan's Punjab state banned public gatherings, sit-ins, rallies, demonstrations and similar activities in Rawalpindi district, which is adjacent to the federal capital, Islamabad, for eight days, and the federal government deployed 10,000 police and paramilitary personnel to the capital, Geo News reported on Oct. 11.

Pakistan: Islamabad Prepares To Host Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit

India's Election Commission announced that the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference party, or JKNC, in alliance with the Indian National Congress party, or INC, won state assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir, The Economic Times reported on Oct. 8. 

India: Election Commission Announces State Election Results for Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir

Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held discussions to strengthen bilateral relations and provide support for the Maldives during its economic crisis, The Economic Times reported on Oct. 7.

India, Maldives: Maldivian President Muizzu Arrives in India

South Asia

SITUATION REPORTS

India, China: Countries Reach Border Patrolling Agreement in Interest of Disengagement

Pakistan: Constitutional Amendment Reduces Judicial Power

U.S., India: U.S. Charges Former Indian Intelligence Official in Foiled Murder Plot Against Sikh Separatist

Pakistan: Judicial Reforms Gain Support as PTI Calls for Protests

India, Canada: New Delhi Recalls Diplomats Over Canadian Investigation

Pakistan: Islamabad Prepares To Host Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit

India: Election Commission Announces State Election Results for Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir

India, Maldives: Maldivian President Muizzu Arrives in India

Forecasts

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