<p>Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region&rsquo;s great population centers. India is the region&rsquo;s dominant country, home to the world&rsquo;s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world&rsquo;s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.</p>

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. 

South Asia

Afghanistan

Bangladesh

Bhutan

India

Maldives

Nepal

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

The Politics of Pipelines

Banking

Crossing Borders

Globalization

Social Issues

The Pulse of Political Islam

Instability in Central Asia

South Asian Militancy

India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

Assessments

Israel

Palestinian Territories

China

Japan

South Korea

United Kingdom

Egyptian trucks and heavy machinery on Oct. 26, 2025, on the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing with the Gaza Strip.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Gaza Border Reopening, EU Leaders Visit India

United States

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (right) meets with Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar at a hotel in New York City on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly meeting on Sept. 22, 2025. 

Economics

Global Trade

A trade deal could gradually reduce barriers in the tech, industrial and energy sectors, but progress will likely remain constrained by U.S. tariff uncertainty and India's reluctance to make concessions in sensitive sectors like agriculture.

Where Things Stand in U.S.-India Trade Talks

Nigeria

Colombia

Cuba

Mexico

Venezuela

Greenland

Iran

Taiwan

Europe

Norway

Ukraine

Russia

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

Energy

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

Columns

On Geopolitics

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Benin

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Rwanda

Canada

Paraguay

Egypt

Lebanon

Morocco

Qatar

Syria

Turkey

Yemen

Australia

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Mongolia

Myanmar

Philippines

Thailand

Vietnam

Bulgaria

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Oman

New Zealand

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi walks alongside Oman's Deputy Prime Minister for Defence Affairs Sayyid Shihab bin Tariq al-Said upon his arrival in Muscat on Dec. 17, 2025.

New trade pacts offer gains in market access and investment but India's protectionist stance on agriculture and dairy remains an obstacle to deals with the United States and European Union. 


Oman and New Zealand Deals Indicate India's Push To Diversify Trade Partnerships

Mozambique

Republic of the Congo

Somalia

A destroyed church is seen in Mosul, Iraq.

The Islamic State's main threat to the West in 2026 will remain its ability to inspire lone-actor violence, though in the coming years the group's African, Afghan and Syrian branches may become increasingly capable of directing mass casualty attacks in Western countries.

The Islamic State's Enduring Threat to the West

A container ship arrives Oct. 10 at the Port of Oakland, California. In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

2026 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hold a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Tianjin on Sept. 1, 2025.

While Putin's Dec. 4-5 visit may yield some progress in defense, energy and trade cooperation, India will likely maintain selective engagement with Russia as it navigates U.S. pressure and continues diversifying its arms suppliers.

What To Expect as Putin Visits India

European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will co-chair an India-EU summit during their visit to India from Jan. 25 to 28 and meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Reuters reported on Jan. 23.

India, EU: High-Ranking EU Officials To Visit India as FTA Negotiations Conclude

Campaigning is underway in Bangladesh ahead of the country's first national elections since the 2024 uprising that forced longtime Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from power, with voting scheduled for Feb. 12, AP reported on Jan. 22.

Bangladesh: Campaigning Begins for First National Vote Following Hasina's Fall

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a brief meeting in New Delhi, where the two signed a 10-year liquefied natural gas energy supply agreement under which the United Arab Emirates will supply India with some $3 billion worth of LNG over 10 years, for a total of 0.5 million metric tons of LNG a year, AP reported on Jan. 19.

India, UAE: Governments Sign Energy, Defense Agreements

Pakistan's Ministry of Commerce is reviewing waiver requests to allow Afghan importers to reexport over 6,500 containers currently stranded at two ports in Karachi, Pakistan, and incurring demurrage fees due to the protracted closure of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, Dawn reported on Jan. 14. 

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Border Closure Prompts Requests for Reexport of Stranded Cargo

At a Jan. 13 press conference in New Delhi, India's Army Chief Upendra Dwivedi said India and China were "trying to increase trust" between their militaries, including through meetings between their prime ministers, defense ministers and foreign ministers, and he added both sides felt an urgency to maintain calm along their disputed border, Bloomberg reported the same day.

India, China: India's Army Chief Reaffirms Ties With Beijing Gradually Improving

Iraq

U.S. President Donald Trump said in a Jan. 13 Truth Social post that any country "doing business" with Iran would face a 25% tariff when doing "any and all business" with the United States.

U.S., Iran: Trump Threatens 25% Tariff on Countries Doing Business With Iran

Germany

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in India's western state of Gujarat, where the two leaders sought to deepen economic and security cooperation and signed agreements covering sectors ranging from critical minerals to traditional medicine, AP reported on Jan. 12.

India, Germany: Agreements Strengthen Economic and Security Cooperation

China and Pakistan released a joint statement on Jan. 5 reaffirming their relations as "All-weather Strategic Cooperative Partners," with Beijing praising "the comprehensive measures" Pakistan has taken to counter terrorism and protect Chinese interests.

Pakistan, China: Beijing, Islamabad Reaffirm Ties at Early Meeting

South Asia

SITUATION REPORTS

India, EU: High-Ranking EU Officials To Visit India as FTA Negotiations Conclude

Bangladesh: Campaigning Begins for First National Vote Following Hasina's Fall

India, UAE: Governments Sign Energy, Defense Agreements

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Border Closure Prompts Requests for Reexport of Stranded Cargo

India, China: India's Army Chief Reaffirms Ties With Beijing Gradually Improving

U.S., Iran: Trump Threatens 25% Tariff on Countries Doing Business With Iran

India, Germany: Agreements Strengthen Economic and Security Cooperation

Pakistan, China: Beijing, Islamabad Reaffirm Ties at Early Meeting

Forecasts

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