<p>Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region&rsquo;s great population centers. India is the region&rsquo;s dominant country, home to the world&rsquo;s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world&rsquo;s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.</p>

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. 

South Asia

Afghanistan

Bangladesh

Bhutan

India

Maldives

Nepal

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

The Politics of Pipelines

Banking

Crossing Borders

Globalization

Social Issues

The Pulse of Political Islam

Instability in Central Asia

South Asian Militancy

India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

Assessments

Iran

A welcoming billboard displaying an image of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (left) and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is seen along a street in Karachi, Pakistan, on April 22, 2024. 

Energy

Politics

Pakistan and Iran's embattled pipeline project, which has faced delays amid funding issues and U.S. sanction concerns, could impede recent efforts to boost bilateral cooperation.

For Pakistan and Iran, a Delayed Pipeline Could Undermine Improved Relations

Bharatiya Janata Party flags on April 15 in the Indian city of Raipur. If India's ruling BJP party remains in power after the country's April 19-June 1 general election, policy continuity regarding efforts to increase employment, build infrastructure and implement controversial social policies nationally that trigger social unrest can be expected. 

If the ruling party in fact wins, policy continuity regarding employment, infrastructure and controversial social policies that trigger social unrest can be expected.

India's 2024 Elections Will Likely Generate Policy Continuity

Brazil

Colombia

Israel

Palestinian Territories

China

Germany

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (C) April 12 in Dausa, India.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Indian Elections, Scholz Goes to China

India's 2024 general elections, which will be held from April 19 to June 1, will likely result in Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party retaining control of the government.

2024 Elections: India

Snapshots

People gather outside the provincial legislature of Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly in Peshawar on Feb. 28, 2024. 

The delay may mar the upper house's credibility and cause political instability, but it is unlikely to significantly impede policymaking.


The Impact of Pakistan's Delayed Senate Formation

Media

Sub-Saharan Africa

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Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

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Forecast Webcast

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2024 Second-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2024 Second-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Then-Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (right) and then-Pakistani Finance Minister Ishaq Dar (left) address a press conference in Lahore on June 30, 2023, after the signing of a staff-level agreement with the IMF.

Islamabad will likely secure the final tranche of its current stand-by arrangement, and potentially a new IMF bailout, but the government may struggle to enact related economic reforms.

The Outlook of Pakistan-IMF Engagement

Ukraine

Russia

Emergency services vehicles are seen outside the burning Crocus City Hall concert hall following a shooting incident in Krasnogorsk, outside Moscow, Russia, on March 22, 2024. 

While the attack was likely conducted by Islamist extremists or North Caucasian groups, the Kremlin will nonetheless use the mass casualty incident to further villainize Ukraine and the West, and expand its war efforts against Kyiv.

What To Make of the Deadly Terrorist Attack in Moscow

Members of the Students Federation of India (SFI) protest against the implementation of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) in Chennai, India, on March 12, 2024. 

The implementation of the bill, which makes it easier for some non-Muslims to gain citizenship, will heighten political and religious tensions in the lead-up to India's April-May general ballot.

Ahead of Elections, India Enacts a Controversial Citizenship Law

United States

Japan

A digital illustration of the Bangladeshi flag.

After weeks of election-related unrest, the situation in Bangladesh has stabilized, which will free the government to focus on securing investment and infrastructure deals with the U.S., India, Japan and China.

As the Dust Settles at Home, Bangladesh Turns Its Attention to Foreign Policy

The second phase of elections for India's lower house, or Lok Sabha, took place in 88 constituencies and 13 states and union territories, The Economic Times reported on April 26. 

India: Voting Commences in Phase Two of Indian Lower House Elections

Philippines

India delivered the initial batch of BrahMos cruise missiles to the Philippines under a $375 million agreement signed in 2022, Voice of America reported on April 23. 

India: Philippines Receives Shipment of Indian Supersonic Cruise Missiles

Preliminary results of the Maldivian parliamentary elections indicate that the ruling People's National Congress, or PNC, led by President Mohamed Muizzu secured 71 out of 93 seats, Reuters reported on April 22. 

Maldives: Ruling People's National Congress Secures Majority in Parliament

Polls for the first phase of India's general election opened, encompassing 102 constituencies across 21 states and union territories, including Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh, AP reported on April 19. 

India: First Phase of Voting in General Election Begins

U.S. tech executive Elon Musk is scheduled to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on April 22 during his visit to India to discuss electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla's plans to enter in the Indian market, Reuters reported on April 17.

India: Elon Musk Will Likely Announce EV Investment During Visit to India

Sri Lanka did not reach an agreement with its bondholders regarding the restructuring of approximately $12 billion in debt, Nikkei Asia reported on April 16. 

Sri Lanka: Government Fails To Reach Agreement With Bondholders on Debt Restructuring

Apple sent threat notifications to users in 92 countries warning individuals that they were possible victims of a "mercenary spyware attack," removing the term "state-sponsored" it had used in previous alerts, Reuters reported on April 11.

Cyberspace: Apple Sends Updated Spyware Notifications, Drops State-Sponsored Term

Daytime temperatures in India's southern city of Bangalore, Karnataka state, are nearing seasonal record highs of up to 38 degrees Celsius (100.4 degrees Fahrenheit) in recent days amid ongoing water scarcity challenges, NDTV reported on April 7.

India: High Temperatures in Bangalore Exacerbate Water Crisis

South Asia

SITUATION REPORTS

India: Voting Commences in Phase Two of Indian Lower House Elections

India: Philippines Receives Shipment of Indian Supersonic Cruise Missiles

Maldives: Ruling People's National Congress Secures Majority in Parliament

India: First Phase of Voting in General Election Begins

India: Elon Musk Will Likely Announce EV Investment During Visit to India

Sri Lanka: Government Fails To Reach Agreement With Bondholders on Debt Restructuring

Cyberspace: Apple Sends Updated Spyware Notifications, Drops State-Sponsored Term

India: High Temperatures in Bangalore Exacerbate Water Crisis

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