<p>Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region&rsquo;s great population centers. India is the region&rsquo;s dominant country, home to the world&rsquo;s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world&rsquo;s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.</p>

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. 

South Asia

Afghanistan

Bangladesh

Bhutan

India

Maldives

Nepal

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

The Politics of Pipelines

Banking

Crossing Borders

Globalization

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The Pulse of Political Islam

Instability in Central Asia

South Asian Militancy

India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

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What major challenges will the incoming government face?

What To Expect From Bangladesh's Upcoming Elections

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Thailand

Campaign posters Feb. 6 of candidates running in the upcoming Japanese House of Representatives election, in Inagi, Tokyo prefecture.

Military & Security

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Japan Holds Snap Elections, U.S. Weighs Options After Iran Talks

U.S.-Iran Relations

Snapshots

A freight train on Aug. 26, 2025, in Ajmer India.

Economics

A U.S.-India trade deal will bring some relief to Indian exporters, but ambiguities over its scope, implementation timeline and myriad other flashpoints will risk undermining it.

An India-U.S. Trade Deal Will Face Ongoing Hurdles

A burned-out vehicle along a road on the outskirts of the Pakistani city of Quetta on Feb. 1, 2026, a day after an attack by Baloch separatists. The intensifying insurgency will exacerbate strains on Pakistan's security forces, worsening the country's security challenges and further constraining foreign investment interest.

The intensifying insurgency will exacerbate strains on Pakistan's security forces, worsening the country's security challenges and further constraining foreign investment interest.

With Coordinated Attacks, Pakistan's Baloch Insurgency Intensifies

Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) supporters gather for a rally in Sylhet, Bangladesh, ahead of the upcoming national election on Jan. 22, 2026. 

The Feb. 12 ballot could yield a government led by the conservative BNP, a coalition led by the Islamist Jamaat party, or a fragile BNP-Jamaat coalition -- each with distinct implications for Bangladesh's economic, political and foreign policy landscape.

Bangladesh's General Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

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Palestinian Territories

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Egyptian trucks and heavy machinery on Oct. 26, 2025, on the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing with the Gaza Strip.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: A Gaza Border Reopening, EU Leaders Visit India

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (right) meets with Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar at a hotel in New York City on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly meeting on Sept. 22, 2025. 

Global Trade

A trade deal could gradually reduce barriers in the tech, industrial and energy sectors, but progress will likely remain constrained by U.S. tariff uncertainty and India's reluctance to make concessions in sensitive sectors like agriculture.

Where Things Stand in U.S.-India Trade Talks

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RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

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As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

Columns

On Geopolitics

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Bangladesh secured a reduced 19% U.S. tariff under a bilateral trade deal signed on Feb. 9, Reuters reported the same day.

U.S., Bangladesh: U.S. Reduces Tariffs on Bangladeshi Goods

Indian opposition political parties and farmers' unions pledged to carry out protests over the coming days, including a strike on Feb. 12, to oppose the India-U.S. trade deal, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 9.

India: Opposition Parties, Farmers Pledge Protests After Interim Deal's Framework Announced

Indian Trade Minister Piyush Goyal said Feb. 5 that the United States' reduced tariff rate of 18% on Indian goods will come into effect after the two sides issue a joint statement in the next four to five days, and that the broader, formal trade deal "will take 30-45 days and will be signed in March," Reuters reported.

U.S., India: India's Trade Minister Says U.S. Trade Deal Signing Expected in March

Kazakhstan

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signed a joint declaration establishing a strategic partnership during Tokayev's state visit to Islamabad, Akorda reported Feb. 4.

Kazakhstan, Pakistan: Strategic Partnership Signals Deeper Connectivity Push

Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the country's FY 2026-27 budget to Parliament on Feb. 1, AFP reported Feb. 2.

India: 2027 Budget Pledges To Increase Investment, Boost Infrastructure Spending

The United States and India have reached a trade deal that will immediately lower U.S. reciprocal tariffs on India from 25% to 18% and will remove an additional 25% tariff the United States imposed on New Delhi last year for its purchases of Russian oil, Reuters reported Feb. 2.

India, U.S.: New Delhi and Washington Reach Trade Deal

The European Union and India finalized a free trade agreement after nearly two decades of talks, Reuters reported on Jan. 27.

EU, India: FTA Finalized, On Track To Enter Into Force in Early 2027

European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will co-chair an India-EU summit during their visit to India from Jan. 25 to 28 and meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Reuters reported on Jan. 23.

India, EU: High-Ranking EU Officials To Visit India as FTA Negotiations Conclude

South Asia

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Bangladesh: U.S. Reduces Tariffs on Bangladeshi Goods

India: Opposition Parties, Farmers Pledge Protests After Interim Deal's Framework Announced

U.S., India: India's Trade Minister Says U.S. Trade Deal Signing Expected in March

Kazakhstan, Pakistan: Strategic Partnership Signals Deeper Connectivity Push

India: 2027 Budget Pledges To Increase Investment, Boost Infrastructure Spending

India, U.S.: New Delhi and Washington Reach Trade Deal

EU, India: FTA Finalized, On Track To Enter Into Force in Early 2027

India, EU: High-Ranking EU Officials To Visit India as FTA Negotiations Conclude

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