<p>Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region&rsquo;s great population centers. India is the region&rsquo;s dominant country, home to the world&rsquo;s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world&rsquo;s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.</p>

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. 

South Asia

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The Politics of Pipelines

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The Pulse of Political Islam

Instability in Central Asia

South Asian Militancy

India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

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The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.

2025 Third-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

United States

Iran

Israel

Australia

China

Japan

A photo taken in Tehran, Iran, on June 26, 2025, shows an Iranian political banner hanging near the remains of a residential building struck by an Israeli attack. 

Global Trade

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Fragile Iran-Israel Ceasefire Holds, U.S. Tariff Deadline Approaches

U.S.-Iran Relations

Water runs in the Gurez valley in India-administered Jammu and Kashmir, near the India-Pakistan border, on June 3, 2025. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Diplomatic talks between India and Pakistan will likely remain stalled due to ongoing airspace closures and disputes over water-sharing, sustaining the risk of a future conflict following the two countries' military confrontation earlier this year.

Unresolved Tensions: Water, Airspace and the Future of India-Pakistan Diplomacy

Media

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Third-Quarter Forecast.

2025 Third-Quarter Forecast Webcast

U.S.-China Relations

Turkey

Russia

The Geopolitics of Trade

Turkey's export strategy necessitates trade partnerships with countries in many different spheres of influence, portending both risks and opportunities as Ankara attempts to maintain its neutral middle-power status.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Turkey's Export Strategy Hinges on Neutrality

Podcasts

Will the cease-fire between the two countries last?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for India-Pakistan Relations

India's evolving trade strategy aims to boost key exports while protecting sensitive sectors, reflecting a blend of liberalization and long-standing protectionist instincts.

The Geopolitics of Trade: India

The Bombay Stock Exchange building May 7 in Mumbai, India. If military hostilities were to resume and lead to a prolonged conflict, Pakistan would be far less well-positioned than India to sustain it from an economic and financial perspective.

If military hostilities were to resume and lead to a prolonged conflict, Pakistan would be far less well-positioned than India to sustain it from an economic and financial perspective.

The Economic Case for an India-Pakistan Ceasefire

Snapshots

Indian soldiers pay respect during a wreath-laying ceremony for a soldier who was killed during a cross-border firing between India and Pakistan, in Jammu on May 12, 2025. 

While the near-term threat of severe escalation has waned, ongoing tensions over thorny issues like Kashmir and water-sharing will sustain the risk of cross-border flare-ups.

Amid India and Pakistan's Tenuous Ceasefire, Future Flare-Ups Remain Possible

Soldiers and onlookers inspect the debris of a mosque damaged by Indian strikes in Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, on May 7, 2025. 

While a full-scale conflict remains unlikely, escalating tensions will increase security risks in both countries, including travel and business disruptions, nationalist protests, potential militant attacks, and increased cyber threat activity.

India's Retaliation for Kashmir Attack Will Provoke a Pakistani Response

Energy

The Afghan Taliban said it had terminated its 25-year, $540 million oil extraction and development contract with China-based Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Co. on June 17, Nikkei reported on June 25.

Afghanistan, China: Afghan Taliban Cancels Major Chinese Oil Extraction Deal

Under a combined third and fourth review of Bangladesh's ongoing loan program, the International Monetary Fund's executive board approved the release of $1.3 billion, Bloomberg reported on June 24. 

Bangladesh: IMF To Release $1.3B After Third and Fourth Loan Review

According to a June 19 press release from the media wing of Pakistan's military, Field Marshal Gen. Asim Munir and U.S. President Donald Trump's June 18 meeting focused on regional security, counterterrorism cooperation and expanding bilateral ties in trade, technology and energy.

Pakistan, U.S: Pakistan's Field Marshal Meets With Trump

Canada

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to work toward restoring full embassy services in both countries following their meeting at the Group of Seven summit in Alberta, Bloomberg reported on June 17.

India, Canada: Leaders Meet To Reset Bilateral Relations After Two Years of Tension

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The U.S. State Department issued a memo giving 36 countries 60 days to meet new department requirements or be added to a travel ban implemented on June 9, The Washington Post reported on June 14.

U.S.: Trump Administration Considers Adding 36 More Countries to Travel Ban

India and China announced the resumption of direct flights to one another and efforts to strengthen bilateral communication, The Indian Express reported on June 13. 

India, China: New Delhi, Beijing Agree To Expedite Resumption of Direct Flights

The office of Bangladesh's interim leader Muhammad Yunus released a statement hinting that elections could be held in February 2026, two months earlier than the April 2026 date he announced on June 6, as popular frustration with interim authorities mounts, Bloomberg reported on June 13.

Bangladesh: Interim Leader Yunus Hints at Greater Flexibility on Election Timeline

Pakistan's Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb unveiled a 17.573 trillion rupee ($62 billion) budget for fiscal year 2025-26, Dawn reported on June 10.

Pakistan: New Budget Increases Defense Spending but Seeks Alignment With IMF Conditions

South Asia

SITUATION REPORTS

Afghanistan, China: Afghan Taliban Cancels Major Chinese Oil Extraction Deal

Bangladesh: IMF To Release $1.3B After Third and Fourth Loan Review

Pakistan, U.S: Pakistan's Field Marshal Meets With Trump

India, Canada: Leaders Meet To Reset Bilateral Relations After Two Years of Tension

U.S.: Trump Administration Considers Adding 36 More Countries to Travel Ban

India, China: New Delhi, Beijing Agree To Expedite Resumption of Direct Flights

Bangladesh: Interim Leader Yunus Hints at Greater Flexibility on Election Timeline

Pakistan: New Budget Increases Defense Spending but Seeks Alignment With IMF Conditions

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