Assessments

Mali

Algeria

Anti-riot police officers on April 8 in front of the Algerian Embassy in Bamako, Mali. While a full-scale military conflict remains very unlikely, Mali's legal challenge against Algeria ensures that diplomatic and security friction will define the relationship for the foreseeable future.

Military & Security

Politics

While a full-scale military conflict remains very unlikely, Mali's legal challenge against Algeria ensures that diplomatic and security friction will define the relationship for the foreseeable future.

Mali's ICJ Case Against Algeria Will Deepen Diplomatic Standoff in the Sahel

Columns

On Geopolitics

Egypt

Iraq

Jordan

Lebanon

Morocco

Syria

Turkey

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

Chile

United States

Israel

Qatar

Europe

United Kingdom

Russia

Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani addresses a press conference following Israeli strikes in Doha on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Economics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Qatar Hosts an Arab-Islamic Summit, EU Announces New Sanctions on Russia

U.S.-China Relations

Media

Podcasts

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Essential Geopolitics: What Gabbard's ODNI Cuts Mean for Corporate Security

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Iran

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

A picture taken from a distance shows the damaged building (L) in the Qatari compound housing members of Hamas' political bureau on Sept. 10, 2025. Israel targeted the building the previous day in a strike in Qatar's capital, Doha. 

Israel's Sept. 9 airstrikes in Qatar will likely harden the stances of Iranian-backed groups, keep normalization with Saudi Arabia off the table and drive more assertive postures from other regional states.

The Regional Implications of Israel's Strikes in Qatar

On Security

Police tape hangs in front of Utah Valley University following the fatal shooting of political activist Charlie Kirk during an event at the campus Sept. 12, 2025 in Orem, Utah. The period between now and whenever the current wave of political violence ebbs is likely to be volatile, punctuated by further attacks, domestic political instability and the erosion of U.S. global influence.

Political Instability & Social Unrest

War, Insurgency & Terrorism

The period between now and whenever the current wave of political violence ebbs is likely to be volatile, punctuated by further attacks, domestic political instability and the erosion of U.S. global influence.

Charlie Kirk's Assassination: The Latest Chapter in America's Long History of Political Violence

How does the Trump administration's stance toward the Fed differ from that of previous administrations?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Fed Independence

China

Kazakhstan

In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev waits to greet foreign leaders during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states leaders' summit in Astana on July 4, 2024.

Despite President Tokayev's reform proposals, Kazakhstan's succession process will remain vulnerable to destabilizing forces, including elite rivalries and foreign influence.

How Kazakhstan's Proposed Reforms Will Impact the Question of Succession

A vehicle in a U.S. military convoy drives in Arbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan.

The U.S. drawdown from Iraq will weaken Washington's direct influence while creating more space for Turkey to expand economically and Iran to gradually reassert itself through political and militia networks. 

Iraq's Shifting Power Dynamics After U.S. Withdrawal

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Sept. 11, 2025

Burkina Faso

Chad

Niger

Nigeria

Nigerian soldiers from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) drive in pick-ups during training at the Sector 3 MNJTF military base headquarters in Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 5, 2025. 

Armed groups will continue to expand across Nigeria as the government struggles with domestic constraints and limits on regional security cooperation.

In Nigeria, Security Forces Struggle To Address Growing Militancy

Latest

Mexico

France

Portugal

Spain

Italy

An anti-tourism protest in June in Barcelona, Spain. Anti-tourism sentiment is certain to grow in major tourist destinations, though it will be unevenly distributed globally, particularly as the tourism sector could face potential challenges in the future.

Social Issues

Anti-tourism sentiment is certain to grow in major tourist destinations, though it will be unevenly distributed globally, particularly as the tourism sector could face potential challenges in the future.

The Causes and Implications of the Rise in Anti-Tourism Sentiment

From left to right, Small Business Administration administrator Kelly Loeffler, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Environmental Protection Agency administrator Lee Zeldin listen as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a Cabinet meeting on Aug. 26, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

As federal agencies tasked with countering foreign threats are defunded and social media giants relax their rules, the U.S. information space is becoming significantly more vulnerable to state-sponsored manipulation.

U.S. Digital Defenses Weaken, Opening the Door for Nation-State Operations

Snapshots

Poland

Ukraine

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia's drone incursion into Poland highlights Moscow's increasing willingness to test Western resolve as it continues mass airstrikes on Ukraine, prepares for war games in Belarus and negotiations to end the war are stalled. 


Russian Drones Crossing into Poland Risk Escalation with NATO

Nepal

Demonstrators carrying Nepal's national flag stage a protest outside the parliament building in Kathmandu on Sept. 8, 2025, against social media prohibitions and government corruption. 

Despite the prime minister's resignation and the lifting of a controversial social media ban, risks of violent unrest will likely persist as long-standing political instability deepens.

Nepal's Political Instability Deepens as Violent Protests Prompt Prime Minister's Resignation

Palestinian Territories

Smoke billows after explosions in Qatar's capital of Doha on Sept. 9. The attack will reduce the odds of a ceasefire in Gaza as Qatar walks back from its role as mediator and reassesses its regional diplomatic and security strategy.

The attack will reduce the odds of a ceasefire in Gaza as Qatar walks back from its role as mediator and reassesses its regional diplomatic and security strategy.

Israel's Attack on Hamas' Political Leadership Scrambles Qatar's Regional Role

France's then-Prime Minister Francois Bayrou (C) delivers his general policy statement during an extraordinary parliamentary session prior to a confidence vote over the government's austerity budget at the National Assembly in Paris on Sept. 8, 2025.

Spending cuts proposed by the ousted prime minister and the prospect of further austerity measures have energized a new grassroots movement, raising the specter of another yellow vest-style uprising.

In France, Prime Minister Bayrou's Ouster Deepens Political Paralysis and Fiscal Uncertainty

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba attends a press conference at the Prime Minister's Office on Sept. 6, 2025, in Tokyo, Japan.

Japan's leadership contest will threaten to split the ruling party as conservative and reformer factions compete to place their leaders in the country's highest office.

In Japan, Ishiba's Resignation Sparks a Volatile Party Leadership Contest

Global Elections

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer departs 10 Downing Street on Sept. 3 in London. The Labour Party's deputy leadership contest will intensify internal party criticism of Starmer ahead of a politically painful budget in November.

The Labour Party's deputy leadership contest will intensify internal party criticism of Prime Minister Keir Starmer ahead of a politically painful budget in November. 

The Contest for Deputy Leader of UK Labour Will Intensify the Party's Woes

India

Participants of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit 2025 pose for photos in Tianjin, China, on Sept. 1, 2025.

Energy

Global Trade

U.S. trade uncertainty will help China deepen trade ties with its Central Asian neighbors and infrastructure ties with Russia, but its relations with India will remain inhibited by border disputes and differing defense priorities.

China Positions Itself as Growth Catalyst for Central Asia at SCO Summit

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a meeting on May 14, 2015, in Xian, China. 

While Trump-era tariff pressures offer a new economic incentive for cooperation, Beijing and New Delhi are unlikely to fully normalize ties due to enduring strategic and security concerns.

Despite Modest Improvement, India-China Relations Face Enduring Challenges

The crime scene where political activist Charlie Kirk was shot and killed Sept. 11 at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Political violence in the United States and other Western countries is becoming harder to define. 

While ideologically amorphous violence is deeply troubling, it fits into the overall wave of political violence in which the United States finds itself -- and the overall trajectory of more violence likely for the foreseeable future.

The Charlie Kirk Assassination Highlights the Rise of Political Violence Without a Clear Ideology 

Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sept. 7 in Brasilia, Brazil. Lula's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics are leaving him struggling to resonate with voters.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics is making it difficult for him to resonate with voters.

Lula's Old Playbook Meets a New Political Reality

A portrait of former U.S. President Ronald Reagan is seen in the background as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on April 22, 2025.

In just seven months in office, the Trump administration has pursued a series of highly unconventional economic policies that, taken together, amount to the deepest government interventionism into the U.S. economy of any president since the Reagan era.

The Visible Hand: Trump's Interventionism Reshapes American Capitalism

A person holds a smartphone showing an interface introducing OpenAI's new GPT-5 model in the ChatGPT app in front of a blurred OpenAI logo on Aug. 9, 2025, in Chongqing, China. 

Despite users' disappointment with the lack of conversational improvements, GPT-5 signifies a shift in AI development from basic chatbots to more advanced agentic systems, capable of complex, multi-step tasks.

GPT-5 and the Evolution of AI

South Sudan

Ethiopia

Somalia

Sudan

Uganda

Shipping containers are offloaded from a vessel at Berbera Port in Somaliland on Aug. 31, 2021.   (ED RAM/AFP via Getty Images)

The UAE is expanding its influence across East Africa through large-scale investments and security partnerships, aiming to consolidate its status as a global trade hub and counter regional competitors, at the risk of entangling regional states in broader geopolitical contests.

The UAE's Long Game in East Africa

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters near Air Force One at the airport in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Aug. 3, 2025. Trump answered questions about his upcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, among other topics. 

While the Trump administration's outreach to Russia may yield limited cooperation, a comprehensive ''reset'' is unlikely for the foreseeable future due to Moscow and Washington's diverging strategic interests.

Can Trump Reset U.S.-Russia Relations?

Vice President of the European Commission Kaja Kallas revealed plans to downgrade trade relations with Israel and sanction high-ranking Israeli officials over Israel's policies in Gaza, Politico reported on Sept. 17. 

EU, Israel: EU Plans To Downgrade Trade Ties, Impose Sanctions Over Israel's Gaza Policies

Hong Kong SAR, China

In Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee's fourth annual policy address, he established an investigative body to oversee civil servant accountability, and he focused heavily on integrating Hong Kong's economy with China's, The South China Morning Post reported on Sept. 17.

Hong Kong: Lee Highlights Mainland Integration, Policy Implementation Issues

The U.S. Department of State designated four Iranian-backed Iraqi militias -- Harakat al-Nujaba, Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, Harakat Ansar Allah al-Awfiya and Kataib al-Imam Ali -- as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, or FTOs, to counter Iran and prevent terrorist attacks against U.S. military personnel and assets in the region, according to a Sept. 17 State Department press release.

Iraq, U.S.: State Department Designates Four Iranian-Backed Iraqi Militias as FTOs

Indonesia

Indonesia and the European Union announced they will sign a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement on Sept. 23 after nearly a decade of negotiations, the Financial Times reported on Sept. 17. 

EU, Indonesia: Trade Agreement To Be Finalized After More Than Nine Years

Brazil's Chamber of Deputies approved a constitutional amendment proposal that expands parliamentary immunity in criminal and civil investigations, Folha de S.Paulo reported on Sept. 16. 

Brazil: Impunity Amendment Moves Forward, Risking Increased Corruption Over Time

The United States reportedly suspended support for Somalia's elite Danab commandos, a Somali National Army elite unit trained and equipped by Washington, Garowe Online reported on Sept. 16. 

Somalia: U.S. Reportedly Suspends Support for Elite Unit Commandos

Malawi

Malawi's ruling Malawi Congress Party, or MCP, declared victory in the country's Sept. 16 general election before the publication of official election results by the electoral commission, Malawi 24 reported on Sept. 17.

Malawi: Ruling Party Declares Itself Election Winner Before Publication of General Election Results

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security published an interim final rule on Sept. 16 saying it would consider requests by either automakers or auto part producers to place new tariffs on imported auto parts not currently covered by existing auto tariffs, including "advanced technologies." 

U.S.: National Security Tariffs on Auto Parts May Expand

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

Wazalendo militias issued a memo to Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi laying out a number of demands in return for their continued loyalty to the Congolese government, Radio France Internationale reported on Sept. 17.

Congo: Wazalendo Militias Issue Slew of Demands to Tshisekedi

Science & Technology

U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose ahead of a meeting in Helsinki, Finland, on July 16, 2018. 

As Putin and Trump prepare to meet in Alaska, the main risk for Ukraine is a U.S.-Russia deal that cements major territorial losses while offering weak security guarantees, leaving it vulnerable to future Russian aggression.

Putin-Trump Summit: The Risks for Ukraine

DEA New York special agent in charge speaks to the press in New York City on Feb. 28, 2025, after the former leader of a brutal Mexican cartel, Rafael Caro Quintero, described by the White House as the world's ''most evil'' drug boss, pleaded not guilty to narcotics charges in New York.

Despite the political and diplomatic risks, Trump is more likely than not to launch some direct operations against Mexican cartels before he leaves office, potentially ranging from light and sporadic U.S. drone strikes to more extensive ground operations.

The Outlook for Trump's 'War' on Mexican Cartels

The European Union unveiled a "new strategic agenda" for its bilateral relations with India, setting out plans to deepen cooperation across security, trade, technology, space and migration, a statement by the European Commission read on Sept. 17. 

EU, India: Brussels Announce Strategic Agenda for India Relations

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

The Causes and Implications of the Rise in Anti-Tourism Sentiment

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

EU, Israel: EU Plans To Downgrade Trade Ties, Impose Sanctions Over Israel's Gaza Policies

Hong Kong: Lee Highlights Mainland Integration, Policy Implementation Issues

Iraq, U.S.: State Department Designates Four Iranian-Backed Iraqi Militias as FTOs

EU, Indonesia: Trade Agreement To Be Finalized After More Than Nine Years

Brazil: Impunity Amendment Moves Forward, Risking Increased Corruption Over Time

Somalia: U.S. Reportedly Suspends Support for Elite Unit Commandos

Malawi: Ruling Party Declares Itself Election Winner Before Publication of General Election Results

U.S.: National Security Tariffs on Auto Parts May Expand

Congo: Wazalendo Militias Issue Slew of Demands to Tshisekedi

EU, India: Brussels Announce Strategic Agenda for India Relations

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