Assessments

United States

Australia

China

Germany

United Kingdom

Ukraine

Russia

U.S. President Donald Trump on April 24 in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington. In an interview July 10, U.S. President Donald Trump suggested he would "have a major statement to make on Russia on Monday," perhaps representing a shift in his administration's policy.

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Trump Speaks on Ukraine, Sweeping EU Budget Reform

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

A Ukrainian soldier works on an AN/TWQ-1 Avenger anti-aircraft missile system on Nov. 28, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine. 

Despite Trump's impatience with Russia's failure to de-escalate in Ukraine, the White House is highly unlikely to dramatically ramp up pressure in a way that significantly alters the Kremlin's calculus.

What Trump's Growing Frustration With Russia Means for U.S. Policy

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

A collapsed water tank painted with the Lebanese flag is seen in the ruins of a village in southern Lebanon, located near the border with Israel, on Jan. 7, 2025.

Ahead of Lebanon's 2026 election, Hezbollah will try to portray itself as a nationalist resistance movement rather than an Iranian proxy, but the risk of renewed conflict with Israel will persist unless the group disarms. 

To Ease Pressure to Disarm, Hezbollah Pursues a Rebrand 

Europe

France

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer (L) and French President Emmanuel Macron hold a press conference on July 10, 2025, in London.

The series of agreements will deepen cooperation between Europe's two nuclear powers at a time of strategic flux and institutional fragmentation across the Continent.

New U.K.-France Defense Deals Mark a Step Toward a European Nuclear Deterrent

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 10, 2025

Columns

On Geopolitics

U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during a rally at a steel plant in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, on May 30, 2025. 

Economics

Global Trade

For the rest of his term, Trump will continue to use tariffs to secure foreign policy concessions on both trade and non-trade matters, even if he starts shifting away from broad, global tariff threats to ones focused on specific countries or goods. 

A Look at Trump's Evolving Tariff Strategy

Japan

Leaders of eight political parties pose before a debate at the Japan National Press Club on July 2, 2025, in Tokyo, Japan. From left to right are Sanseito Secretary General Sohei Kamiya, Japanese Communist Party Chairperson Tomoko Tamura, Komeito Chief Representative Tetsuo Saito, Constitutional Democratic Party President Yoshihiko Noda, Japan's Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party President Shigeru Ishiba, Governor of Osaka and Japan Innovation Party Co-Representative Hirofumi Yoshimura, Democratic Party for the People Representative Yuichiro Tamaki and Reiwa Shinsengumi President Taro Yamamoto.

Japan's upper house elections will determine whether the ruling Liberal Democratic Party will stay in power and -- if so -- how easily it will be able to pursue its key policy goals.

Japan's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Georgia

Georgian anti-government demonstrators attempt to block a highway entrance to the capital Tbilisi on Feb. 2, 2025

The government's efforts to suppress the opposition risk roiling its relations with the West, triggering more mass protests, and potentially enabling Russia to expand its influence in Georgia.

Georgia's Crackdown on Dissent Risks Drawing It Closer to Russia and Alienating the West

Lithuania

Poland

A newly installed sign pointing to Schengen transfer flights is pictured next to EU and Romanian flags on March 31, 2024. 

Poland's move to reimpose border checks to curb irregular migration from Germany and Lithuania highlights a greater trend that risks entrenching uncertainty for businesses and travelers in the EU's passport-free area.

New Polish Border Controls Bring Europe's Schengen Area Back Into Question

President Donald Trump bangs a gavel after signing a bill into law extending his 2017 tax cuts on July 4 in Washington.

The measure will prevent a sharp increase in income taxes that would shock the economy, but add to the already high U.S. government debt burden.

The Consequences of Extending Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts

Iraq

Yemen

An Iranian flag is draped from a building damaged during a recent attack by Israel is seen in the Gisha neighborhood of Tehran, Iran, on June 25, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The brief war with Israel has significantly weakened Iran's regional influence and military capabilities, forcing it and the members of its Axis of Resistance to recalibrate their strategies and focus on recovery.

The Impact of the 12-Day War on Iran and Its Allies, Part 1

Latest

Asia-Pacific

Diplomats attend the 32nd Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum during the 58th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Kuala Lumpur on July 11, 2025. 

Chinese, Russian and U.S. participation in the summit shows that the Southeast Asian bloc will remain a key venue for diplomatic hedging and potential great power friction in the years ahead.

ASEAN Meeting Provides an Arena for Multipolar Competition

U.S.-China Relations

Bangladesh

The entrance to the International Monetary Fund headquarters is seen in Washington, D.C.

While Bangladesh is making progress in its IMF program, risks persist, including political uncertainty, low foreign exchange reserves and high U.S. tariffs on its vital garment sector.

Bangladesh's Economic Outlook: Progress and Persistent Challenges

The sun sets behind electrical grids in the southern Iraqi city of Nasiriyah on Jan. 3, 2021. 

Energy

Power outages will likely worsen this summer amid Iraq's inability to meet surging demand and reliance on unreliable Iranian gas supplies, raising the risk of larger and potentially more violent protests.

Iraq's Worsening Electricity Crisis Risks Fueling Bigger Protests

Cameroon

Cameroon President Paul Biya (L) and his wife Chantal Biya react during a parade marking the 51st celebration of Unity Day in Yaounde on May 20, 2023.

Cracks in the ruling coalition risk fueling unrest and political instability as 92-year-old President Biya seeks an eighth term in the October election. 

Amid Growing Defections, Cameroon's Aging President Doubles Down With a Reelection Bid

Cambodia

Thailand

Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra (center) speaks next to Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai (2nd from left) during a press conference in Bangkok following her suspension by the country's Constitutional Court on July 1, 2025. 

Paetongtarn's suspension from office over a leaked phone call with Cambodia's former leader risks collapsing her fragile government and inviting more economic disruption amid U.S. trade tensions.

A Fresh Political Crisis Erupts in Thailand Following Prime Minister's Suspension

Armenia

Azerbaijan

A man walks past Azerbaijan's Embassy in Moscow on July 2, 2025. 

As the relationship between Azerbaijan and Russia sours, outside powers will embrace opportunities to increase their influence in the Caucasus.

 In the Caucasus, Russia's Sway Weakens Amid Quarrel With Azerbaijan

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addresses the nation in a state television broadcast on June 18, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. 

While Israel's airstrikes appear aimed at destabilizing the country, they are alone unlikely to collapse the Islamic Republic, as Iranian leaders would probably make significant concessions to ensure the regime's survival rather than let it fall.

Assessing the Potential for Regime Change in Iran

U.S.-Iran Relations

Palestinian Territories

An Israeli tank rolls along the fence on the border with the Gaza Strip on June 4, 2025. 

Uncertainty regarding who will govern post-war Gaza and fund its reconstruction increases the likelihood of a prolonged Israeli occupation that would empower Israel's far-right to push for annexation and more extensive population displacement.

Is Gaza Destined for Another Israeli Occupation?

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.

Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?

A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.

The apparent ineffectiveness of consumer subsidies in raising retail sales, paired with the government's continued resistance to stimulus, suggests that China's post-COVID consumer activity will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow. The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy

Visitors walk down the inclined shaft at Steenkampskraal rare-earth mine on July 29, 2019, about 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) from Vanrhynsdorp, a town in Western Cape province, South Africa.

Environment, Science & Technology

U.S.-China trade tensions are increasing the risk of supply chain disruptions for critical raw materials, but companies can take steps to mitigate this danger.

Corporate America Comes to Grips With Supply Chain Risks to Critical Raw Materials

Indonesia

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the United States reached a preliminary trade deal with Indonesia centered on a 19% tariff rate for Indonesian goods, but Jakarta has yet to confirm its agreement, CNBC reported on July 15.

Indonesia, U.S.: Trump Announces Trade Deal With Indonesia

South Korea

South Korea's defense minister nominee Ahn Gyu-back said President Lee Myung's administration aimed to complete the transfer of wartime operational control, or OPCON, from the United States to South Korea's military before the end of Lee's term in 2030, Nikkei Asia reported on July 15.

South Korea, U.S.: Seoul Broaches Transfer of Wartime Operational Control

Pakistan

Pakistan's President Asif Ali Zardari unilaterally enacted an ordinance expanding the Frontier Constabulary, a paramilitary force that primarily operates in regions near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, into a national force called the Federal Constabulary with authority to operate across all provinces and in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, Reuters reported on July 14.

Pakistan: Government To Establish New National Paramilitary Force

Brazil

Brazil's attorney general asked the Federal Supreme Court to convict former President Jair Bolsonaro and seven of his close allies for their alleged involvement in a 2022 coup plot, g1 reported on July 15.

Brazil, U.S.: Legal Developments Involving Former President To Add Pressure on Bilateral Relations

A unit of Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund is bringing in consultants to review the feasibility of and suggest changes to The Line, a linear smart city contained within the larger Neom megaproject, Bloomberg reported on July 14.

Saudi Arabia: Consultants To Cut Aspects of The Line Megaproject

Senegal

Credit rating agency S&P downgraded Senegal's sovereign credit rating from B to B- and revised the country's debt outlook to negative after Senegal's government debt was found to stand at 118% of gross domestic product at the end of 2024, against 104% as previously assessed, Reuters reported on July 15. 

Senegal: Credit Downgrade Portends Mounting Economic Challenges 

Science & Technology

Nvidia is preparing to resume sales of its H20 graphics processing unit to China after receiving assurances from the U.S. government that it will grant the company licenses to export the artificial intelligence accelerator, Nvidia said in a July 14 blog post.

U.S.: Washington To Approve Sales of Nvidia's H20 GPU to China

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou unveiled his government’s 2026 budget plan, which will aim to reduce France’s deficit while offsetting an increase in defense spending through approximately 44 billion euros ($51 billion) in spending cuts, tax hikes and a freeze to pensions and social benefits, Le Monde reported on July 15.

France: Prime Minister Bayrou Presents Government Plans for Austerity Budget

The Weekly Rundown: Netanyahu's U.S. Visit, a Franco-British Summit

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Over the next decade, Gulf Arab states will increase oil and gas exports to emerging Asian markets, seeking alternatives to the U.S. amid tariff uncertainty. But the region's military and tech ties with the U.S. will remain strong.

Geopolitics of Trade: Gulf Arab States Balance Diversification With Enduring U.S. Ties

For export-reliant developing countries that were already facing financial distress, the global uncertainty created by Trump's sweeping tariffs will sharply increase economic risks, as well as introduce political instability risks.

 Trump's Tariffs Will Hit Developing Economies Hard

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B aircraft over the North Sea having taken off from RAF Fairford on July 1, 2016 in Gloucestershire, England. The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

Washington Bumps up Against the Limits of Airpower in the Middle East

An explosive-laden drone struck the Kurdistan region of Iraq's Sarang gas field in Dahuk province, Reuters reported on July 15.

Iraq: Drone Strike Causes Explosion at KRG Gas Field Operated by U.S. Company

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Moscow was ready to negotiate with the White House to end the war in Ukraine, but he added that Moscow would not respond well to ultimatums, The Guardian reported on July 15.

Russia, U.S.: Russia Says It Is Willing To Negotiate Peace, but Rejects 'Ultimatums'

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

How Great Power Competition Is Changing the Geopolitics of Mongolia

For Moscow, soft power is more about sowing discord among the Kremlin's enemies than singing Russia's praises.

Rather than trumpet Russia's praises overseas, Moscow's propaganda machine is focused more on undermining the Kremlin's enemies.

Russia Takes a Hard Approach to Soft Power

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the late founder of Kataib Hezbollah, commanded respect in Iraq. His death, more than Qassem Soleimani's in the same attack, soured many Iraqis on the U.S. presence in their country.

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis fought Saddam Hussein, engineered attacks on Western embassies and took on the Islamic State. His death in the same strike that killed Iran's Qassem Soleimani increased local hostility to the U.S. presence in Iraq.

Reflections on the Life and Death of an Iraqi Militant

Guatemala

Guatemala is still working out the details of how it will implement a 'safe third country' agreement signed last year with the United States.

The country's new president is likely to use the questions surrounding the implementation of the 'safe third country' agreement to wrest additional support from the U.S.

ASEAN Meeting Provides an Arena for Multipolar Competition

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Indonesia, U.S.: Trump Announces Trade Deal With Indonesia

South Korea, U.S.: Seoul Broaches Transfer of Wartime Operational Control

Pakistan: Government To Establish New National Paramilitary Force

Brazil, U.S.: Legal Developments Involving Former President To Add Pressure on Bilateral Relations

Saudi Arabia: Consultants To Cut Aspects of The Line Megaproject

Senegal: Credit Downgrade Portends Mounting Economic Challenges

U.S.: Washington To Approve Sales of Nvidia's H20 GPU to China

France: Prime Minister Bayrou Presents Government Plans for Austerity Budget

Iraq: Drone Strike Causes Explosion at KRG Gas Field Operated by U.S. Company

Russia, U.S.: Russia Says It Is Willing To Negotiate Peace, but Rejects 'Ultimatums'

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