Assessments

Guyana

United States

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Australia

Japan

Ukraine

Russia

The President of the 80th session of the U.N. General Assembly and former German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock speaks during a General Assembly meeting to vote on a two-state solution to the Palestinian question on Sept. 12 at the United Nations in New York. Countries including Australia, Canada, France and the United Kingdom will likely formally recognize Palestinian statehood over the next several days at the assembly.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Western Countries Recognize Palestine, the EU Discusses a 'Drone Wall'

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Sept. 18, 2025

Mexico

France

Portugal

Spain

Italy

An anti-tourism protest in June in Barcelona, Spain. Anti-tourism sentiment is certain to grow in major tourist destinations, though it will be unevenly distributed globally, particularly as the tourism sector could face potential challenges in the future.

Social Issues

Anti-tourism sentiment is certain to grow in major tourist destinations, though it will be unevenly distributed globally, particularly as the tourism sector could face potential challenges in the future.

The Causes and Implications of the Rise in Anti-Tourism Sentiment

Columns

On Security

The crime scene where political activist Charlie Kirk was shot and killed Sept. 11 at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Political violence in the United States and other Western countries is becoming harder to define. 

Political Instability & Social Unrest

While ideologically amorphous violence is deeply troubling, it fits into the overall wave of political violence in which the United States finds itself -- and the overall trajectory of more violence likely for the foreseeable future.

The Charlie Kirk Assassination Highlights the Rise of Political Violence Without a Clear Ideology 

Mali

Algeria

Anti-riot police officers on April 8 in front of the Algerian Embassy in Bamako, Mali. While a full-scale military conflict remains very unlikely, Mali's legal challenge against Algeria ensures that diplomatic and security friction will define the relationship for the foreseeable future.

While a full-scale military conflict remains very unlikely, Mali's legal challenge against Algeria ensures that diplomatic and security friction will define the relationship for the foreseeable future.

Mali's ICJ Case Against Algeria Will Deepen Diplomatic Standoff in the Sahel

On Geopolitics

Egypt

Iraq

Jordan

Lebanon

Morocco

Syria

Turkey

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sept. 7 in Brasilia, Brazil. Lula's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics are leaving him struggling to resonate with voters.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics is making it difficult for him to resonate with voters.

Lula's Old Playbook Meets a New Political Reality

From left to right, Small Business Administration administrator Kelly Loeffler, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Environmental Protection Agency administrator Lee Zeldin listen as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a Cabinet meeting on Aug. 26, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

As federal agencies tasked with countering foreign threats are defunded and social media giants relax their rules, the U.S. information space is becoming significantly more vulnerable to state-sponsored manipulation.

U.S. Digital Defenses Weaken, Opening the Door for Nation-State Operations

Chile

Qatar

Europe

United Kingdom

Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani addresses a press conference following Israeli strikes in Doha on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Economics

The Weekly Rundown: Qatar Hosts an Arab-Islamic Summit, EU Announces New Sanctions on Russia

U.S.-China Relations

Media

Podcasts

Essential Geopolitics: What Gabbard's ODNI Cuts Mean for Corporate Security

Iran

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

A picture taken from a distance shows the damaged building (L) in the Qatari compound housing members of Hamas' political bureau on Sept. 10, 2025. Israel targeted the building the previous day in a strike in Qatar's capital, Doha. 

Israel's Sept. 9 airstrikes in Qatar will likely harden the stances of Iranian-backed groups, keep normalization with Saudi Arabia off the table and drive more assertive postures from other regional states.

The Regional Implications of Israel's Strikes in Qatar

Latest

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani chairing a preparatory meeting in Doha on Sept. 14, 2025, ahead of an Arab Islamic summit.

The Sept. 9 strike on Qatar has amplified doubts among Gulf states about the reliability of U.S. security guarantees and Washington's ability to restrain its regional allies.

Israeli Strike on Qatar Prompts GCC States To Question Future of Regional Security

Snapshots

China

Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng arrives for trade talks with US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent at the foreign ministry in Madrid on Sept. 14, 2025.

A Trump-Xi phone call and a fourth round of U.S.-China trade talks have yielded few concrete results, showing that negotiations on trade and TikTok will remain slow-going.

Despite Trump-Xi Phone Call, U.S.-China Trade Talks Struggle To Gain Traction

India

A department store on Sept. 5, 2025, in Mumbai, after the Indian government slashed GST rates. While the government's tax changes will support growth by boosting disposable incomes and household consumption, they are likely only a short-term measure that threatens to strain some Indian states' budgets.

While the government's tax changes will support growth by boosting disposable incomes and household consumption, they are likely only a short-term measure that threatens to strain some Indian states' budgets.

India's GST Reforms Will Weigh on State Finances 

Flag of China on a red-painted printed circuit board.

Advancements in China's semiconductor sector are reducing Chinese companies' reliance on foreign technology, enabling them to push back more firmly against Western hegemony.

China's Chip Advances Increase Beijing's Leverage in Talks With the U.S.

Poland

Russia's drone incursion into Poland highlights Moscow's increasing willingness to test Western resolve as it continues mass airstrikes on Ukraine, prepares for war games in Belarus and negotiations to end the war are stalled. 


Russian Drones Crossing into Poland Risk Escalation with NATO

Nepal

Demonstrators carrying Nepal's national flag stage a protest outside the parliament building in Kathmandu on Sept. 8, 2025, against social media prohibitions and government corruption. 

Despite the prime minister's resignation and the lifting of a controversial social media ban, risks of violent unrest will likely persist as long-standing political instability deepens.

Nepal's Political Instability Deepens as Violent Protests Prompt Prime Minister's Resignation

Smoke billows after explosions in Qatar's capital of Doha on Sept. 9. The attack will reduce the odds of a ceasefire in Gaza as Qatar walks back from its role as mediator and reassesses its regional diplomatic and security strategy.

The attack will reduce the odds of a ceasefire in Gaza as Qatar walks back from its role as mediator and reassesses its regional diplomatic and security strategy.

Israel's Attack on Hamas' Political Leadership Scrambles Qatar's Regional Role

France's then-Prime Minister Francois Bayrou (C) delivers his general policy statement during an extraordinary parliamentary session prior to a confidence vote over the government's austerity budget at the National Assembly in Paris on Sept. 8, 2025.

Spending cuts proposed by the ousted prime minister and the prospect of further austerity measures have energized a new grassroots movement, raising the specter of another yellow vest-style uprising.

In France, Prime Minister Bayrou's Ouster Deepens Political Paralysis and Fiscal Uncertainty

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba attends a press conference at the Prime Minister's Office on Sept. 6, 2025, in Tokyo, Japan.

Japan's leadership contest will threaten to split the ruling party as conservative and reformer factions compete to place their leaders in the country's highest office.

In Japan, Ishiba's Resignation Sparks a Volatile Party Leadership Contest

Global Elections

Police tape hangs in front of Utah Valley University following the fatal shooting of political activist Charlie Kirk during an event at the campus Sept. 12, 2025 in Orem, Utah. The period between now and whenever the current wave of political violence ebbs is likely to be volatile, punctuated by further attacks, domestic political instability and the erosion of U.S. global influence.

War, Insurgency & Terrorism

The period between now and whenever the current wave of political violence ebbs is likely to be volatile, punctuated by further attacks, domestic political instability and the erosion of U.S. global influence.

Charlie Kirk's Assassination: The Latest Chapter in America's Long History of Political Violence

A portrait of former U.S. President Ronald Reagan is seen in the background as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on April 22, 2025.

In just seven months in office, the Trump administration has pursued a series of highly unconventional economic policies that, taken together, amount to the deepest government interventionism into the U.S. economy of any president since the Reagan era.

The Visible Hand: Trump's Interventionism Reshapes American Capitalism

A person holds a smartphone showing an interface introducing OpenAI's new GPT-5 model in the ChatGPT app in front of a blurred OpenAI logo on Aug. 9, 2025, in Chongqing, China. 

Despite users' disappointment with the lack of conversational improvements, GPT-5 signifies a shift in AI development from basic chatbots to more advanced agentic systems, capable of complex, multi-step tasks.

GPT-5 and the Evolution of AI

South Sudan

Chad

Ethiopia

Somalia

Sudan

Uganda

Shipping containers are offloaded from a vessel at Berbera Port in Somaliland on Aug. 31, 2021.   (ED RAM/AFP via Getty Images)

The UAE is expanding its influence across East Africa through large-scale investments and security partnerships, aiming to consolidate its status as a global trade hub and counter regional competitors, at the risk of entangling regional states in broader geopolitical contests.

The UAE's Long Game in East Africa

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters near Air Force One at the airport in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Aug. 3, 2025. Trump answered questions about his upcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, among other topics. 

While the Trump administration's outreach to Russia may yield limited cooperation, a comprehensive ''reset'' is unlikely for the foreseeable future due to Moscow and Washington's diverging strategic interests.

Can Trump Reset U.S.-Russia Relations?

Afghanistan

Unnamed sources familiar with ongoing discussions say U.S. officials are in very preliminary discussions with the Afghan Taliban on potentially reestablishing a small U.S. military presence at Bagram Air Field in Afghanistan's northeast Parwan province, which would serve as a "launch point" for counterterrorism operations, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sept. 19.

Afghanistan: U.S. Officials Reportedly in Early Talks With Taliban on Retaking Bagram Air Base

Taiwan

U.S. President Donald Trump did not approve a $400 million military aid package for Taiwan, including autonomous drones and munitions, over the summer amid trade talks with China, The Washington Post reported on Sept. 19.

Taiwan, U.S.: Trump Delays Taiwan Military Aid Amid China Trade Talks

South Africa

South African Trade Minister Parks Tau said in a statement that he had reached an agreement with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on a roadmap that would "inform future engagements" toward the conclusion of ongoing bilateral trade negotiations, Reuters reported on Sept. 19. 

South Africa: Trade Minister Tau Reportedly Agrees With U.S. on 'Roadmap' Toward Trade Deal

Energy

The U.N. Security Council failed to pass a resolution that would permanently lift sanctions on Iran, AP reported on Sept. 19.

Iran: U.N. Security Council Fails To Lift Sanctions on Iran

Slovakia

Hungary

Global Trade

The European Commission unveiled its proposal for the EU's 19th package of sanctions against Russia on Sept. 19, Reuters reported the same day. The measures propose a full ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports (LNG) starting Jan. 1, 2027, a year earlier than previously planned.

EU, Russia: European Commission Proposes Faster Phaseout of Russian LNG

Pakistan

Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaja Mohammad Asif said the country's nuclear arsenal would be "made available" to Saudi Arabia under their new defense pact, the first confirmation that Pakistan's nuclear weapons would be included as part of the agreement that was signed on Sept. 18.

Pakistan, Saudi Arabia: Pakistan Says Saudi Arabia Is Under Its Nuclear Umbrella

Papua New Guinea

China's embassy in Papua New Guinea publicly warned the country against signing a security pact with Australia, claiming the deal would compromise its sovereignty, the Financial Times reported Sept. 19.

Australia, China, Papua New Guinea: Beijing Warns Against Australia-PNG Pact

Science & Technology

Kazakhstan

In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev waits to greet foreign leaders during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states leaders' summit in Astana on July 4, 2024.

Despite President Tokayev's reform proposals, Kazakhstan's succession process will remain vulnerable to destabilizing forces, including elite rivalries and foreign influence.

How Kazakhstan's Proposed Reforms Will Impact the Question of Succession

U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose ahead of a meeting in Helsinki, Finland, on July 16, 2018. 

As Putin and Trump prepare to meet in Alaska, the main risk for Ukraine is a U.S.-Russia deal that cements major territorial losses while offering weak security guarantees, leaving it vulnerable to future Russian aggression.

Putin-Trump Summit: The Risks for Ukraine

DEA New York special agent in charge speaks to the press in New York City on Feb. 28, 2025, after the former leader of a brutal Mexican cartel, Rafael Caro Quintero, described by the White House as the world's ''most evil'' drug boss, pleaded not guilty to narcotics charges in New York.

Despite the political and diplomatic risks, Trump is more likely than not to launch some direct operations against Mexican cartels before he leaves office, potentially ranging from light and sporadic U.S. drone strikes to more extensive ground operations.

The Outlook for Trump's 'War' on Mexican Cartels

The Trump administration is engaged in internal talks about how to invest money from the $550 billion investment fund established with Japan as part of trade talks, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sept. 18.

U.S.: Trump Administration Crafting Plans for $550B Japan-U.S. Investment Fund

Argentina

Argentina's Central Bank sold $379 million on Sept. 18 to defend the peso while President Javier Milei suffered another defeat in Congress as legislators overturned a veto barring disbursing funds to provinces, El Pais reported on the same day. 

Argentina: Obstacles to Defending Peso Grow as Investor Confidence Dwindles

KwaZulu-Natal Police Commissioner Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi began his testimony before South Africa's Madlanga commission of inquiry regarding his bombshell claims in early July alleging extensive corruption in parliament, the police service and the judiciary, as well as interference by now-suspended Police Minister Senzo Mchunu in the work of the police, Daily Maverick reported on Sept. 17.

South Africa: Commission of Inquiry Kicks Off Hearings Amid Bombshell Accusations

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

Despite Trump-Xi Phone Call, U.S.-China Trade Talks Struggle To Gain Traction

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Afghanistan: U.S. Officials Reportedly in Early Talks With Taliban on Retaking Bagram Air Base

Taiwan, U.S.: Trump Delays Taiwan Military Aid Amid China Trade Talks

South Africa: Trade Minister Tau Reportedly Agrees With U.S. on 'Roadmap' Toward Trade Deal

Iran: U.N. Security Council Fails To Lift Sanctions on Iran

EU, Russia: European Commission Proposes Faster Phaseout of Russian LNG

Pakistan, Saudi Arabia: Pakistan Says Saudi Arabia Is Under Its Nuclear Umbrella

Australia, China, Papua New Guinea: Beijing Warns Against Australia-PNG Pact

U.S.: Trump Administration Crafting Plans for $550B Japan-U.S. Investment Fund

Argentina: Obstacles to Defending Peso Grow as Investor Confidence Dwindles

South Africa: Commission of Inquiry Kicks Off Hearings Amid Bombshell Accusations

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