Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 8, 2025

Iraq

Saudi Arabia

Kazakhstan

The OPEC logo is seen outside the bloc's headquarters in Vienna, Austria, on Oct. 4, 2022.

Economics

Energy

The production boost will further decrease oil prices, which will provide some financial relief for oil-consuming countries affected by U.S. tariffs, while further straining the budgets of poorer oil producers like Iraq. 

The Mixed Economic Impact of OPEC's Production Increase

Australia

After winning the general election, Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese waves as he arrives onstage at the Labor Party election night event in Sydney on May 3, 2025. 

Military & Security

Politics

The Labor Party's sweeping victory in Australia will strengthen Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's ability to increase public spending and bolster ties with foreign partners.

Albanese Returns Stronger Than Ever Following Australia's General Election

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Israeli soldiers conduct a raid in the West Bank on March 19, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Israel's newly approved plan to expand its offensive against Hamas will invite more Houthi attacks on its territory, worsen Gaza's humanitarian crisis, and fuel backlash both at home and abroad. 

To Break Hamas, Israel Prepares to Reoccupy Gaza

Snapshots

Romania

Presidential candidate George Simion is shown on a screen addressing his supporters at the campaign headquarters of their candidate after polls closed on May 4, 2025 in Bucharest, Romania.

Far-right candidate George Simion's first-round win in Romania's presidential race highlights rising anti-establishment sentiment and uncertainty over the country's political and Western trajectory ahead of a tense May 18 runoff.

Romania Faces Turmoil After Far-Right Win in Presidential First Round

Canada

Singapore

Germany

France

Poland

India

Pakistan

Indian and Pakistani border forces at the Wagah border post separating their countries April 25 near Amritsar, India.

Global Trade

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Likely Indian Attack on Pakistan, Romania's Presidential Election Rerun

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Supporters of Singapore's ruling People's Action Party attend an election rally on May 1, 2025. 

While the ruling party is set to extend its 60-year rule, a weaker mandate could impede its ability to navigate economic headwinds and rising public demands for policy reform.

Previewing Singapore's Election

Global Elections

Syria

Turkey

Fighters gather outside a building that was seized by jihadists in Syria's northern Aleppo province on Nov. 29, 2024, amid the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) offensive against government forces.

The two countries will seek to avoid direct conflict amid U.S. pressure to de-escalate tensions, but their competing military presence in Syria and elevated risk tolerances leave the door open to miscalculations and limited clashes.

Can Israel and Turkey Avoid a Conflict in Syria?

Columns

On Geopolitics

Benin

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Comoros

Cote d'Ivoire

Djibouti

Gabon

Guinea

Madagascar

Mali

Mauritania

Niger

Nigeria

Republic of the Congo

Senegal

Togo

Algeria

Morocco

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

Ukraine

Drag-line excavator mines rare earth materials on Ukrainian soil on Feb. 25, 2025, in the Zhytomyr region of Ukraine. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A new U.S.-Ukraine economic deal offers Washington a long-term stake in Ukraine's critical resources -- and a potential lever in ceasefire diplomacy.

New Strategic Pact Gives U.S. Stake in Ukraine's Economic Future

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 1, 2025

Latest

United Kingdom

U.S. President Donald Trump -- flanked by Vice President JD Vance (left) and Peter Mandelson, the U.K. ambassador to the United States (right) -- holds a phone call with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer in the Oval Office of the White House on May 8, 2025. 

The agreement's narrow scope and quota system suggest the White House remains intent on restricting imports, meaning tariff relief for most other countries reaching deals will also be limited.

Trump Reaches First Post-Tariff Trade Deal With the U.K.

Supporters of the PiS party demonstrate April 12 in Warsaw, Poland. Poland will hold a presidential election May 18 and runoff June 1 if no candidate obtains more than 50% in the first round.

Social Issues

The outcome of Poland's election will determine whether Prime Minister Donald Tusk's centrist government will coexist with a cooperative president or continue to face institutional constraints from an ideologically opposed president.

Poland's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Soldiers and onlookers inspect the debris of a mosque damaged by Indian strikes in Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, on May 7, 2025. 

While a full-scale conflict remains unlikely, escalating tensions will increase security risks in both countries, including travel and business disruptions, nationalist protests, potential militant attacks, and increased cyber threat activity.

India's Retaliation for Kashmir Attack Will Provoke a Pakistani Response

Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Mark Carney speaks to his supporters in Ottawa, Canada, on April 29, 2025, after winning the country’s early general elections. 

Canada's newly elected Liberal government, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, is poised to tackle an economic slowdown with tax cuts, domestic industry protection, and closer ties to Europe despite falling just short of a parliamentary majority.

Liberals Win Canada Election, but Minority Government Will Complicate Legislation

Russia

People walk past an electronic panel, promoting the contract service in the Russian armed forces, with a sign that reads "Our profession is to defend the Fatherland" in a shopping mall on May 11, 2024, in Moscow, Russia. 

Russia is signaling it may welcome back Western companies, but strict conditions, ongoing sanctions and reputational risks are likely to deter a widespread return.

Russia Opens Door to Western Firms, But With Major Strings Attached

U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (2 L) and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (C) attend a meeting with European and Ukrainian officials on April 17 at the Elysee presidential palace in Paris.

Ukraine will be forced to choose between compromising on its supposed red lines to de-escalate its war with Russia, or risk losing U.S. support and its battlefield position. 

Growing U.S. Pressure for a Peace Deal Puts Ukraine in a Difficult Position

Kuwait

Kuwaiti traders follow the stock market activity at the Boursa Kuwait stock exchange building in Kuwait City on April 7, 2025. 

The law will enable external borrowing to finance the country's deficits and Vision 2035 investments, but Kuwait's growing reliance on debt markets to increase capital expenditure could eventually prove problematic. 

After Eight Years of Gridlock, Kuwait Finally Passes a New Debt Law

Argentina

Aerial view of 9 de Julio Avenue in Buenos Aires, Argentina, is seen on April 10, 2025, during a 24-hour strike called by workers' unions against the economic policies of President Javier Milei. 

The $20 billion bailout package will reduce financial risks amid Argentina's ongoing macroeconomic adjustment, but the threat of policy slippage will increase ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

What To Make of Argentina's Latest IMF Deal

South Africa

Democratic Alliance leader John Steenhuisen holds a press conference in Johannesburg, South Africa, on Jan. 28, 2025.

Rising tensions between the ruling ANC and its key coalition partner over the 2025 budget are raising the risk of a coalition breakdown, which would threaten policy paralysis and a marked depreciation of the rand.

What the Democratic Alliance's Exit From Government Would Mean for South Africa

China

Cranes unload shipping containers from a ship at a port in Qingdao, in eastern China's Shandong province, on April 2, 2025. 

The timing and scope of Beijing's retaliatory measures signal a significant escalation of its trade war with Washington, which may nonetheless increase the long-term chance of a trade deal.

China Abandons Restraint With Latest Trade Salvo Against the U.S.

U.S.-China Relations

The allure of implementing a sphere of influence model is more likely to disappoint those who may argue that it would create more stability and security.

The Temptations of a Sphere-of-Influence Model of International Relations

A picture released on July 12, 1963, of then-French President Gen. Charles de Gaulle (2L) and Jacques Foccart (L) greeting African, Malagasy and French overseas territories veterans arriving in Paris for French Bastille Day celebrations.

After decades of cultivating tight-knit relationships with francophone African countries, France has effectively ended its forward military presence in West and Central Africa amid shifting political dynamics in both regions, which will weaken its influence on the continent but enable Paris to reallocate resources towards Europe's security.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 1: A New Balance of Power 

Iran

Lebanon

A Lebanese flag painted on a damaged building in the village of Meiss El-Jabal in southern Lebanon is seen from a position on the Israeli side of the border on Jan. 23, 2025, in northern Israel. 

Hezbollah's military losses and the formation of Lebanon's new government have opened the door to a new chapter in Lebanese history, although external pressure will complicate the country's next steps.

Hezbollah's Future in Lebanon

A crowd of men in 1930 wearing jackets and hats.

U.S. tariffs are throwing economies across the globe into disarray, just as they did in 1930, but lessons from the past could keep the world from tipping into a second Great Depression.

Lessons From the 1930s on Avoiding a Second Great Depression

Europe

Spain

Italy

NATO military forces during static display after the Steadfast Dart 2025 military exercises at the Smardan Training Area in Smardan, Romania, on Feb. 19, 2025. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Europe is increasingly focused on achieving greater strategic autonomy in defense, but internal divisions and material constraints will plague this quest, even as the United States' role on the Continent continues to shrink, meaning NATO will likely remain the cornerstone of Europe’s security architecture. 

The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 2: The View From Europe

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) moments after the Closing Bell and the start of U.S. President Donald Trump's news conference on tariffs on April 2, 2025.

Rather than sparking a manufacturing renaissance, Trump's tariff policy threatens to undermine U.S. economic competitiveness for years to come.

The Perils and Pitfalls of Trump's Trade Strategy

Members of the Spanish and Bulgarian armed forces during the NATO exercise Steadfast Dart on Feb. 13, 2025, in Tsrancha, Bulgaria. 

Any U.S. retrenchment away from Europe will more likely be gradual, shaped by strategic realities, shared interests and material constraints, but this transition will still carry profound military, economic and societal implications that will deeply reshape the Continent's security landscape and accelerate the transition to a truly multipolar world.

The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 1: The View From Washington

Pakistan said it shot down 25 Indian drones in multiple cities, including Karachi, Lahore and the garrison city of Rawalpindi, while India acknowledged it had "targeted air defense radars and systems" in response to an alleged Pakistani attempt to launch missiles and drones at military targets along the two countries’ border in Kashmir and elsewhere, AP reported on May 8. 

India, Pakistan: Pakistan Claims Downing 25 Drones Day After India's May 7 Strikes

Colombia

Colombia's Supreme Court issued arrest orders for former Senate President Ivan Name and former House of Representatives President Andres Calle for allegedly receiving $1 million in bribes to help secure congressional support for President Gustavo Petro's key proposals, El Pais reported on May 7. 

Colombia: Arrests of Former Legislature Heads To Hurt Petro's Government

 President of the Nigerian Senate Godswill Akpabio announced that two of President Bola Tinubu's four tax reform bills had been approved and that the two remaining bills would be approved on May 8, Premium Times reported on May 7.

Nigeria: Senate Passes Tax Reform Bills, Ditches VAT Hike

The European Union is preparing a sweeping retaliatory package targeting up to 95 billion euros ($108 billion) worth of U.S. exports should trade negotiations with the Trump administration break down, Bloomberg reported on May 8. 

EU, U.S.: Brussels Prepares New Retaliatory Package on U.S. Products Should Talks Fail

Venezuela

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro signed a strategic partnership deal and discussed energy and oil at a meeting in Moscow, Reuters reported on May 7. 

Venezuela, Russia: Strategic Partnership Unlikely To Yield Significant Developments

Qatar

Qatar will provide $29 million a month to Syria to help pay civil servant salaries for at least the next three months, Reuters reported on May 7, citing Syria's finance minister.

Syria: Qatar Gains U.S. Sanctions Exemptions To Pay Syrian Civil Servant Salaries

Philippines

Two Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy, or PLAN, frigates and one coast guard vessel confronted a Philippine Navy vessel near Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, with one PLAN vessel crossing the bow of the Philippine Navy vessel and blocking its path in a high-risk naval maneuver just 11.8 nautical miles from the reef, The South China Morning Post reported May 8. 

China, Philippines: PLAN Frigates Block Philippine Warship in Rare Naval Confrontation

At midnight on May 8, the Russian government announced the beginning of a 72-hour ceasefire in its war with Ukraine to coincide with Victory Day, which most of the West commemorates on May 8 but Russia celebrates on May 9. 

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Announces Start of V-Day Ceasefire, Ukraine Denounces Violations

Science & Technology

Mexico

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks from the Oval Office on March 7, 2025, after announcing that tariffs could be imposed on Canadian dairy and lumber products within days. 

The expanding scope of Trump's trade wars, coupled with the whiplash of tariffs being enacted and then suspended, begs the question: what is driving this strategy and what, if anything, will constrain it?

Trump's Emerging Trade Doctrine

A digital map illustration of Russia.

The White House believes that restoring ties with Moscow will help it negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine and, more importantly, undermine Russia-China relations in the long run. But numerous potential pitfalls mean this approach is unlikely to pay off.

The Rationale and Risks of Trump's Push to Reengage With Russia

Switzerland

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will meet in Switzerland on May 10-11 for trade talks, Bloomberg reported on May 6.

China, U.S.: Trade Talks To Commence in Switzerland

Brazil

Brazilian authorities said President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's government opposes pressure from the U.S. Trump administration to designate Brazil's two largest organized criminal groups as terrorist organizations, Folha de S.Paulo reported on May 6. 

Brazil, U.S.: Brazil Opposes Designating Local Organized Criminal Groups as Terrorists

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Trump Reaches First Post-Tariff Trade Deal With the U.K.

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

India, Pakistan: Pakistan Claims Downing 25 Drones Day After India's May 7 Strikes

Colombia: Arrests of Former Legislature Heads To Hurt Petro's Government

Nigeria: Senate Passes Tax Reform Bills, Ditches VAT Hike

EU, U.S.: Brussels Prepares New Retaliatory Package on U.S. Products Should Talks Fail

Venezuela, Russia: Strategic Partnership Unlikely To Yield Significant Developments

Syria: Qatar Gains U.S. Sanctions Exemptions To Pay Syrian Civil Servant Salaries

China, Philippines: PLAN Frigates Block Philippine Warship in Rare Naval Confrontation

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Announces Start of V-Day Ceasefire, Ukraine Denounces Violations

China, U.S.: Trade Talks To Commence in Switzerland

Brazil, U.S.: Brazil Opposes Designating Local Organized Criminal Groups as Terrorists

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