Assessments

United States

Iran

Israel

China

India

Pakistan

Israel's Iron Dome air defense system intercepts rockets fired from southern Lebanon on Sept. 27, 2024, over the Upper Galilee region in northern Israel. The Security Cabinet of Israel has yet to decide exactly how to retaliate against Iran for its Oct. 1 missile barrage against the country, but Israel clearly is seeking U.S. approval for an operation that might yet pull the U.S. back into active defense.

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Shanghai Cooperation Organization Meeting, Chinese Financial Support Measures

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Media

Podcasts

Social Issues

What levels of unrest are we likely to see throughout 2024 and beyond?

Essential Geopolitics: The Risk of U.S. Political Unrest Leading up to Elections

Global Elections

Columns

On Geopolitics

Iraq

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Syria

Yemen

An Israeli tank Aug. 7, 2024, in southern Israel along the border with the Gaza Strip. Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year.

Will War in the Middle East Last Another Year?

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 10, 2024

Taiwan

Taiwanese President William Lai gives his inauguration speech on May 20, 2024, in Taipei, Taiwan.

The president's recent remarks indicate he will continue to remove rhetorical ambiguity about Taiwan's de facto sovereignty, portending more Chinese military drills and deeper Western engagement with Taiwan.

For Taiwan, Lai's Pro-Sovereignty Rhetoric May Invite Western Support -- and Chinese Drills

Somalia

What does Somalia's security landscape look like for the next five to 10 years?

Essential Geopolitics: The Future of Somalia

Snapshots

Europe

Russia

Moldova

Moldovan President Maya Sandu delivers a speech in Chisinau on Sept. 20, 2024, during a rally to launch her reelection campaign.

Arguably the biggest threat to Moldova's pro-European trajectory comes not from the two impending Oct. 20 votes themselves, but how the results impact the country's 2025 parliamentary election.

Previewing Moldova's Presidential Race and Referendum on EU Membership

Aging workforces are slowing growth and raising public debt in advanced economies, while rapid labor force growth and high youth unemployment are creating significant economic challenges for developing countries.

The Economic Implications of Shifting Global Demographics

Indonesia

Indonesian Defense Minister and President-elect Prabowo Subianto (center) is seen next to outgoing President Joko Widodo (right) in the parliament building in Jakarta on Aug. 16, 2024. 

The defense minister-turned-president will maintain his predecessor's efforts to bolster Indonesia's economy while adopting a more hawkish stance abroad, particularly on the country's territorial dispute with China.

In Indonesia, Previewing the Prabowo Presidency

Mozambique

Brazil

Tunisia

Germany

Ukraine

A man in Maputo walks past a wall covered with electoral posters in support of Daniel Chapo, the ruling party candidate in Mozambique’s presidential election, on Oct. 4, 2024. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Germany as Mozambique, Tunisia and Brazil Hold Elections

Georgia

The founder of the Georgian Dream party, Bidzina Ivanishvili, stands behind the bulletproof glass as he gives a campaign speech in Gori, Georgia, on Sept. 14, 2024.

In the likely case that the ruling GD party clings to power, Georgia will continue to feign interest in Western integration as it deepens ties with China and Russia. But an opposition victory that yields a new, pro-European government cannot be ruled out.

What's at Stake in Georgia's Oct. 26 Election

Latest

A man watches a news program about Chinese military drills surrounding Taiwan on a giant screen outside a shopping mall in Beijing on Oct. 14, 2024.

China's latest military exercises lower the threshold for the still unlikely prospect of a Taiwan blockade and highlight Beijing's military coercive strategy toward Taipei through 2028.

Chinese Drills Around Taiwan Practice for a Blockade, Even if One Isn't Imminent

Incoming Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah on Jan. 27, 2023, in the Indian city of Srinagar in Kashmir. Jammu and Kashmir's new government will attempt to seek a restoration of full autonomy or at least statehood for the territory, but it will bump up against firm resistance from New Delhi, increasing the likelihood of violent unrest and Pakistani pressure.

Jammu and Kashmir's new government will attempt to seek a restoration of full autonomy or at least statehood for the territory, but it will bump up against firm resistance from New Delhi, increasing the likelihood of violent unrest and Pakistani pressure.

Frustration Will Build in Kashmir as India Ignores the Movement to Restore Autonomy

A plume of smoke billows following an Israeli air strike above a border town in southern Lebanon on Oct. 7, 2024. 

While the country may initially come together in the face of Israel's invasion, various Lebanese factions will probably become more critical of Hezbollah as the war wears on, raising the risk of violence between the group and its domestic rivals.

How Long Will Lebanon Rally Behind Hezbollah's Fight Against Israel?

The headquarters of China's central bank is seen on May 4, 2021.

The new measures reflect growing concerns about China's economic outlook, but their scale falls short of what is needed to maintain 5% growth and stop deflation.

Faced With Slowed Growth and Deflation Risks, China Unveils a New Stimulus Package

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during a rally supporting Sao Paulo mayoral candidate Guilherme Boulos (L) on Aug. 24 in Sao Paulo, Brazil. While Brazil's upcoming municipal elections will not substantially change the status quo at the local level, they will kick-start the race for the presidency in 2026.

While the vote will not substantially change the status quo at the local level, it will kick-start the race for the presidency in 2026.

Brazil's Municipal Elections Will Leave the Status Quo Intact

A Russian RS-24 Yars nuclear missile complex arrives during the main rehearsals of the Victory Day military parade in Moscow's Red Square on May 5, 2024.

The changes aim to threaten the West by making even more explicit Moscow's preexisting ability to use nuclear weapons in response to Ukrainian attacks. But the move won't stop Western efforts to maintain support for Ukraine.

With an Updated Nuclear Doctrine, Russia Looks To Slow Western Support for Ukraine

Serbia

Kosovo

Authorities search a building in Mitrovica, northern Kosovo, on Sept. 29, 2023, after the killing of a police officer.

With the prospect of EU membership frozen, Belgrade and Pristina will be incentivized to ramp up their diplomatic feud and inflammatory rhetoric, raising the risk of violence between Kosovo's Serb and Albanian populations.

For Serbia and Kosovo, Stalled EU Membership Bids Will Disincentivize Reconciliation

The Garden City Terminal at the Port of Savannah in Savannah, Georgia, is seen on Nov. 12, 2021.

With the Sept. 30 deadline for a compromise fast approaching and no talks scheduled between the disputing parties, workers at East and Gulf coast ports appear likely to stage a strike that could severely disrupt U.S. exports and imports.

In the U.S., a Looming Port Strike Risks Disrupting Trade Ahead of the Holidays

Canada

The national Parliament in the Canadian capital of Ottawa.

The prospect alone of early elections will paralyze policymaking until the deadline for general elections next year.

Trudeau's Struggles Will Paralyze Policymaking in Canada Ahead of Elections

Smoke billows from a site targeted by an Israeli shelling in the southern Lebanese village of Zaita on Sept. 23, 2024. 

With the erosion of the rules of engagement established after their 2006 war, both sides will likely fight an open-ended conflict without red lines until an eventual settlement, or an Israeli ground operation.

What To Watch For as Israel and Hezbollah Enter Into an Open-Ended Conflict

A topographic map of Iran.

The exposure of its proxy strategy's shortcomings over the past year will force Iran to adapt its national security strategy to compensate.

Iran Grapples With a Weakened Axis of Resistance

Jordan

The Palestinian refugee camp of Bourj al-Barajneh on Aug. 8 in Beirut. Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 2

Smoke billows following an Israeli strike in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip on Aug. 11, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

Growing domestic and international pressure may force Israel to walk back its demands, leaving Hamas to step into an influential role in Gaza.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 1

A recreational sailing yacht suspected of use in the sabotage of undersea gas pipelines stands in dry dock on the headland of Bug on Ruegen Island on March 17, 2023, near Dranske, Germany. In a high-profile article published late on Aug. 14, The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines under the Baltic Sea in late September 2022.

Energy

The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, a reminder to us of the importance of acknowledging and doing our best to mitigate our analytic biases.

What New Revelations About the Nord Stream Attack Can Remind Us About Analytical Biases

United Kingdom

Ireland

Labour leader and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer (R) speaks with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (L) on July 07, 2024 in Edinburgh, Scotland. The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions. 

The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions.

The New British Government and Scottish and Northern Irish Separatism

Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives a press conference during the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 12, 2023.

Erdogan's consolidation of power has made Turkish economic policies more beholden to the president's personal and political whims, and less to institutional checks and balances.

Turkey: A Case Study in Economic Policymaking Under Increased Political Centralization

Saudi Arabia

A man walks in front of the Maraya (Mirror), the world's largest mirrored building, in the desert canyon of Ashar Valley in Saudi Arabia's northwestern Al-Ula desert on Jan. 29, 2024.

Environment, Science & Technology

Amid the rising costs of climate change, Saudi Arabia hopes an increasing reliance on market forces will keep its economy in the black.

Will Climate Change Singe Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030?

Cyber

U.S.-China Relations

Science & Technology

The U.S. Biden administration created a multi-agency team to address recent revelations around extensive Chinese cyberattacks on U.S. telecommunications companies, The Washington Post reported on Oct. 11. 

U.S.: Washington Creates Team To Combat Chinese Hacking Into Telecommunications Companies

North Korea

South Korea

North Korea's Defense Ministry announced that it had given military units (including artillery) near the border with South Korea preliminary operation orders to "get fully ready to open fire" if drones from South Korea incurred into the North's airspace again, Politico reported on Oct. 13.

North Korea, South Korea: North Readies Artillery Response Over South's Drones

India's Ministry of External Affairs recalled its charge d'affaires from Canada, announcing plans to withdraw the high commissioner and other diplomats and officials from the country as well, The New York Times reported on Oct. 14.

India, Canada: New Delhi Recalls Diplomats Over Canadian Investigation

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Uganda

The Democratic Republic of the Congo's President Felix Tshisekedi announced on Oct. 12 the extension of its joint "Shujaa" operation with Uganda against the Islamic State-affiliated Allied Democratic Forces, or ADF, the Daily Monitor reported on Oct 14. 

Congo, Uganda: Congolese Leader Announces Extension of Joint Operations Against ADF Rebels

The U.S. Pentagon confirmed it is sending Israel a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery, along with 100 troops to operate the system, to help defend the country following Iran's Oct. 1 ballistic missile barrage and amid continued Hezbollah attacks, the BBC reported Oct. 14.

Israel: U.S. To Send THAAD Anti-Missile System and Troops To Operate It

France

The French government will present a new immigration law in early 2025 that would extend the period during which migrants can be detained in administrative centers while awaiting deportation if they received an order to leave the country, Le Monde reported on Oct. 14, citing a statement by government spokesperson Maud Bregeon.

France: Government To Propose Tougher Immigration Rules in 2025

Angola

Rwanda

The Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda reached an agreement regarding the disarmament of the radical Hutu Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, or FDLR, in eastern Congo, the state-owned Angola Press News Agency reported on Oct. 13. 

Congo, Rwanda: Angola Reports Agreement Over FDLR's Disarmament

Lebanon's Hezbollah launched a combined drone and rocket attack against an Israeli military base housing the Golani Brigade in the town of Binyamina south of Haifa on Oct. 13, killing at least four soldiers and injuring 58, BBC reported on Oct 14. 

Lebanon, Israel: Hezbollah Drone Attack Kills Four in Haifa Israeli Military Base

The Geopolitics of Water

The unequal distribution of freshwater shapes geopolitical patterns by driving competition, conflict and development, while water stress -- intensified by urbanization, agriculture, industry and climate change -- threatens social stability and economic security, as this RANE series will explore.

The Geopolitics of Water: An Introduction 

Then-Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman holds a press conference in Riyadh on April 25, 2016, after unveiling the kingdom's economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030.

The kingdom's ambitious economic diversification plan has managed to survive the various geopolitical shocks that have emerged in recent years. But can it continue to do so?

Saudi Arabia's Adapted Vision 2030 Still Faces an Uncertain Future

South Africa

South Africa's state-owned bulk water supplier Rand Water warned that water reservoir levels in Gauteng province were "critically low" and would soon be depleted if municipalities did not act on its recommendations, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 14.

South Africa: Rand Water Warns of 'Critically Low' Water Levels in Gauteng

Poland

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Oct. 12 that Poland will temporarily suspend the right to claim asylum in the country and will not implement the European Union's new migration and asylum pact during a rally of his Civic Platform (KO) party, the largest in Poland's ruling coalition, Reuters reported Oct. 14.

Poland: Tusk Proposes Temporary Suspension of Asylum Rights

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

Chinese Drills Around Taiwan Practice for a Blockade, Even if One Isn't Imminent

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S.: Washington Creates Team To Combat Chinese Hacking Into Telecommunications Companies

North Korea, South Korea: North Readies Artillery Response Over South's Drones

India, Canada: New Delhi Recalls Diplomats Over Canadian Investigation

Congo, Uganda: Congolese Leader Announces Extension of Joint Operations Against ADF Rebels

Israel: U.S. To Send THAAD Anti-Missile System and Troops To Operate It

France: Government To Propose Tougher Immigration Rules in 2025

Congo, Rwanda: Angola Reports Agreement Over FDLR's Disarmament

Lebanon, Israel: Hezbollah Drone Attack Kills Four in Haifa Israeli Military Base

South Africa: Rand Water Warns of 'Critically Low' Water Levels in Gauteng

Poland: Tusk Proposes Temporary Suspension of Asylum Rights

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