Assessments

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 4, 2025

Russia

India

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hold a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Tianjin on Sept. 1, 2025.

Economics

Energy

Global Trade

Military & Security

While Putin's Dec. 4-5 visit may yield some progress in defense, energy and trade cooperation, India will likely maintain selective engagement with Russia as it navigates U.S. pressure and continues diversifying its arms suppliers.

What To Expect as Putin Visits India

Columns

On Geopolitics

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Hamas militants arrive to secure the area as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on Dec. 1, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

In this phase of the conflict, Israel and Hamas aim to break one another's political will not through widespread violence but through attrition and exhaustion.

Hamas and Israel Evolve the Gaza Conflict

Honduras

China

Europe

Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for their bilateral meeting during the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit.

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Putin-Modi Meeting, Honduras General Election

A Ukrainian serviceman from the 24th mechanized brigade prepares a Magura night drone to flight toward the front line in the area of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region late on April 29, 2025.

Ukraine's success in using cheap drones against Russia reveals how smaller states can leverage accessible technologies to impose disproportionate and sustained costs on a materially superior adversary.

Drones Are Redefining Asymmetric Warfare

United Kingdom

Portugal

Spain

People visit the 1627 Pilgrim Village at "Plimoth Plantation," where role-players portray pilgrims seven years after the arrival of the Mayflower, in Plymouth, Massachusetts.

On Thanksgiving, the United States celebrates the Plymouth Colony. However, few know that New England's colonization was a response to major geopolitical pressures -- particularly England's struggle against the Spanish both on the Continent and in the New World.

Thanksgiving and Puritan Geopolitics in the Americas

While efforts by China and others to de-dollarize their international trade will fragment the international trade financing regime to some extent, they will do little to undermine the dollar's dominance.

The Geopolitics of Trade: De-dollarization and International Trade

U.S.-China Relations

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 26, 2025

Employees work at a garment factory in Tiruppur, in India's southern state of Tamil Nadu, on Sept. 23, 2025.

While the reforms will eventually create a more competitive, transparent and predictable labor market, the potential for uneven state-level adoption and protests will create challenges for companies in the near term. 

India's Labor Code Reforms: Opportunities and Implementation Challenges

Snapshots

Iran

Iraq

Iraqi riot police walk past a screen displaying a portrait of incumbent Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during celebrations by his supporters following the announcement of preliminary election results in Baghdad on Nov. 12, 2025. 

The Nov. 11 elections produced another fragmented legislature where Iranian-backed parties still have significant influence, portending contentious government formation talks that could impede policymaking and trigger armed clashes.

Iraq Braces for Another Turbulent Government Formation Process

Smoke rises in the background as a Ukrainian flag flutters in the wind following a mass overnight Russian drone and missile attacks, in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv on Nov. 19, 2025. 

European efforts to adjust core elements of Trump's plan won't shield Ukraine from his latest threat to withdraw support, and Europe's limited leverage and internal constraints mean it is unlikely to sustain Kyiv's defense alone if talks with the White House fail.

What To Make of Europe's Counterproposal to the U.S. Ukraine Peace Plan

Latest

Lebanon

A photograph taken from the Israeli side of the border with southern Lebanon shows U.N. peacekeepers clearing landmines on Nov. 19, 2025. 

Rare direct talks between the neighboring adversaries will probably continue despite Hezbollah's objections, but Israel's likely refusal to offer meaningful concessions will sustain a high risk of renewed conflict in the coming months.

Lebanon-Israel Talks Are Unlikely To Pave the Way for Peace

Eurasia

Russia's President Vladimir Putin, accompanied by Kremlin economic envoy Kirill Dmitriev and Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, meets with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and US President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner at the Kremlin in Moscow on Dec. 2, 2025.

Fundamental disagreements between Ukraine and Russia over territorial concessions and security guarantees suggest that peace negotiations are unlikely to lead to a comprehensive breakthrough.

Despite U.S. Diplomatic Push, Ukraine Peace Still a Long Way Off

Somalia

Yemen

Yemenis stand under a billboard depicting the seizure of an Israeli-linked ship in the sea by Yemen's Houthi-run coast guards during a demonstration staged in solidarity with the people of Gaza and against U.S. President Donald Trump's deal to end the Israel-Hamas war on Oct. 3, 2025, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

While the partnership provides tactical benefits, structural limitations on Houthi resources and al Shabaab's financial independence suggest the relationship will remain opportunistic.

The Outlook for Cooperation Between Yemen's Houthis and Somalia's al Shabaab

Workers clean the rubble from the site of a Nov. 23 Israeli airstrike targeting a residential building in the southern Haret Hreik neighborhood of Beirut. Israel will likely opportunistically escalate airstrikes against Hezbollah and Hamas to further weaken the militant groups and push them toward disarmament without ending shaky ceasefires.

Miscalculation or an opportunity for Israel to significantly set back Hezbollah would, however, increase the likelihood of a return to major fighting. 

Despite More Intense Israeli Strikes, Hezbollah and Hamas Ceasefires Will Likely Hold

Ukrainian artillerymen operate a U.S.-made M-114 howitzer near Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Oct. 16, 2025.

Trump has given Ukraine until Nov. 27 to accept a plan that would freeze the war on terms favorable to Moscow, or face U.S. aid cuts. But Kyiv is unlikely to accede, instead relying on European support to continue fighting.

Ukraine Likely To Reject Trump's Peace Plan Ultimatum, Prolonging the War

View of a Honduran national flag at La Laguna neighborhood, in the north of Tegucigalpa, on Nov. 11, 2025. 

Honduras' next government will face legislative gridlock, political instability and unrest, regardless of the victor.

The Challenges Facing Honduras' Upcoming General Election

Global Elections

Algeria

Morocco

A man rides past a roundabout adorned with Moroccan national flags in Laayoune, the main city of Moroccan-controlled Western Sahara, on Nov. 7, 2025.

Although Morocco's sovereignty plan is gaining momentum, the unresolved conflict will continue to complicate the region's development and fuel sporadic clashes.

U.N. Security Council Resolution Bolsters Morocco's Claims to Disputed Western Sahara

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leave after their talks at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025. 

The framework deal favors China by boosting its export competitiveness, but future escalations with the U.S. are likely over the coming year due to differing interpretations of the new measures and ongoing trade tensions.

China Secures Favorable U.S. Trade Deal, New Escalations Still Likely

Egypt

The new headquarters for Egypt's House of Representatives, the lower house of the country's legislature, is seen on Aug. 1, 2023, at the New Administrative Capital megaproject, which is about 45 kilometers east of the current capital, Cairo. 

With the opposition sufficiently sidelined, pro-government parties will retain a strong majority in the House of Representatives, potentially enabling President al-Sisi to pursue constitutional changes to extend his term.

Egyptian Lower-House Elections To Reaffirm al-Sisi's Dominance

Taiwan

Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.

The 2025 Taiwan National Defense Report reflects Taipei's growing intent and tactical capabilities for deterrence by denial against a Chinese invasion, but it also highlights persistent challenges that contribute to a continually rising risk of conflict through 2028.

Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation

On Security

Kenya

Madagascar

Nigeria

South Africa

Chile

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Tunisia

Turkey

Indonesia

Philippines

Thailand

Serbia

Bangladesh

Nepal

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

Germany

Slovakia

Hungary

European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23. The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

Qatar

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

Kazakhstan

The Kazakh Senate approved amendments to the subsoil code that will cap foreign ownership in new uranium projects at 25% and condition license extensions on the transfer of enrichment technology, Kapital.kz reported on Dec. 4.

Kazakhstan: State Consolidation of Uranium Sector Targets Value Chain Expansion

European Council President Antonio Costa met with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana to reinforce political commitment to the Trans-Caspian transport route and critical mineral supply chains, the European Council's press service reported on Dec. 4.

EU, Kazakhstan: EU Bets on New Trade Route Through Kazakhstan To Secure Critical Resources

Presidential candidate Salvador Nasralla alleged fraud in Honduras' Nov. 30 general election, claiming that "an algorithm changed the data" to benefit candidate Nasry Asfura, Reuters reported on Dec. 4. 

Honduras: Presidential Candidate Alleges Manipulation of Election Results Amid High Political Tensions

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo Felix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame signed the "Washington Accords," in which both sides reiterated their commitment to implementing their U.S.-brokered June peace deal, the U.S. State Department said in a press release on Dec. 4.

Congo, Rwanda: Tshisekedi Signs Peace Deal With Kagame, Strategic Partnership With U.S.

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Ethiopia's Amhara regional government and Fano militia commander Captain Masresha Setie signed a peace agreement in the presence of officials from the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, or IGAD, Addis Standard reported on Dec. 4.

Ethiopia: Amhara Regional Government Signs Peace Deal With Fano Faction

The Tunisian General Labor Union, or UGTT, called for a nationwide general strike on Jan. 21, citing the need for social dialogue, the right to collective bargaining and opposition to the public and private sector wage increases in the draft 2026 finance bill, all against the backdrop of President Kais Saied's ongoing crackdown on dissent, Reuters reported Dec. 5.

Tunisia: Powerful Labor Union Calls for General Strike Amid Rising Tensions With Government

Mali

Mahmoud Dicko, a prominent Malian religious and political figure who played a key role in the 2020 coup, has joined the country's exiled opposition coalition, the Coalition of Forces for the Republic (CFR), Jeune Afrique reported Dec. 5.

Mali: Imam Influential in the 2020 Coup Joins New Opposition Coalition, Calls for Dialogue with Jihadists

South Korea

Judges from across South Korea assembled at the Supreme Court and voiced concerns about the constitutionality and controversiality of two bills that President Lee Jae Myung's Democratic Party passed through the National Assembly on Dec. 3, Yonhap News Agency reported on Dec. 5. 

South Korea: Lee's Judicial Reforms Risk Overreach, Renewed Unrest

An aerial view of the IAD71 Amazon Web Services data center is seen on July 17, 2024, in Ashburn, Virginia. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Social Issues

Science & Technology

AI's displacement of workers, the environmental impact of data centers and fears of pervasive surveillance are creating a potent mix of grievances likely to fuel violent extremism against targets associated with the technology.

The Coming Violent Backlash Against AI

During his Dec. 4-5 visit, Russian President Vladimir Putin met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi, and both agreed to expand and diversify trade, Reuters reported on Dec. 5.

India, Russia: Putin and Modi Agree To Deepen India-Russia Trade

Germany's Bundestag approved Chancellor Friedrich Merz's disputed pension reform after his ruling coalition secured 318 votes, narrowly above the 316 required for a majority, Reuters reported on Dec. 5.

Germany: Bundestag Narrowly Passes Pension Reform as Ruling Coalition Shows Signs of Strain

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

The Outlook for Cooperation Between Yemen's Houthis and Somalia's al Shabaab

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Kazakhstan: State Consolidation of Uranium Sector Targets Value Chain Expansion

EU, Kazakhstan: EU Bets on New Trade Route Through Kazakhstan To Secure Critical Resources

Honduras: Presidential Candidate Alleges Manipulation of Election Results Amid High Political Tensions

Congo, Rwanda: Tshisekedi Signs Peace Deal With Kagame, Strategic Partnership With U.S.

Ethiopia: Amhara Regional Government Signs Peace Deal With Fano Faction

Tunisia: Powerful Labor Union Calls for General Strike Amid Rising Tensions With Government

Mali: Imam Influential in the 2020 Coup Joins New Opposition Coalition, Calls for Dialogue with Jihadists

South Korea: Lee's Judicial Reforms Risk Overreach, Renewed Unrest

India, Russia: Putin and Modi Agree To Deepen India-Russia Trade

Germany: Bundestag Narrowly Passes Pension Reform as Ruling Coalition Shows Signs of Strain

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