Assessments

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Feb. 19, 2026

Europe

Ukraine

City authorities and businesses rebuild residential buildings damaged by Russian shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on July 12, 2023.

Economics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

While European governments can fund Ukraine's war effort this year and next, securing the investment needed to rebuild damaged infrastructure will face significant political, economic and structural hurdles.

The Challenge of Rebuilding Ukraine's Economy

Algeria

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

The national flag of Algeria flies near the Bay of Algiers against the backdrop of the old town known as the Casbah and cargo containers in Algiers, Algeria, on Aug. 25, 2022.

Politics

Divergences between Algeria and the United Arab Emirates are poised to grow and may lead to a diplomatic break.

Algeria's Grievances With the UAE Deepen Amid Strategic Divergences

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

Philippine Foreign Minister Theresa Lazaro speaks at a press conference during a Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting in Cebu City, the Philippines, on Jan. 29, 2026.

Military & Security

The coming year will test ASEAN's ability to maintain unity, manage crises and remain a credible regional forum amid rising internal security risks and a more fractured world order, particularly as the Philippines butts heads with China in the South China Sea.

Previewing the Philippines 2026 ASEAN Chairmanship

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Yemen

U.S. Vice President JD Vance's shadow is seen as he speaks during a press conference following a military briefing at the civilian military coordination center on Oct. 21, 2025, in Kiryat Gat, Israel. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Negotiations over a new Israel-U.S. security agreement signal a pivot in the bilateral relationship as Israel increasingly focuses on strengthening its domestic defense industry.

How Israel's Defense Sector Will Evolve Amid the Government's Push for Self-Reliance

Columns

On Geopolitics

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

Slovakia

Hungary

Russia

India

U.S. President Donald Trump (C) holds up his signature on the founding charter of the Board of Peace among other world leaders at the World Economic Forum on Jan. 22 in Davos, Switzerland.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Board of Peace Convenes, Russia-Ukraine-U.S. Talks in Geneva

Bangladesh

A man walks past campaign posters of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) chairman and Tarique Rahman in Dhaka on Feb. 13, 2026.

The transition from an interim administration will likely restore political stability, though social and fiscal pressures will still pose constraints for the new center-right government.

Bangladesh Nationalist Party Wins Big in First Election Since 2024 Uprising

The U.S. and the EU flags are seen side by side on Nov. 21, 2025, in Brussels, Belgium. 

Energy

By replacing Russian gas with U.S. LNG, the EU risks becoming reliant on another systemically central external supplier at a time of growing geopolitical instability and transatlantic tension.

The Strategic Risks of Europe's Pivot to U.S. LNG

Snapshots

Argentina

An aerial photo shows Argentinian police using a water cannon truck against protesters opposing labor reforms on Feb. 11, 2026, in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Although the labor reform is likely to be approved and may incrementally improve Argentina's hiring climate, its short-term economic impact will be limited.

Argentina's Milei Secures Senate Backing for Market-Oriented Labor Overhaul

Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul arrives at the Government House in Bangkok on Feb. 9, 2026.

The incumbent conservative party's victory will improve short-term political stability, but governance will remain constrained by coalition dynamics, entrenched institutions and uncertain constitutional reform.

Thailand Approves Constitutional Reform, Re-Elects Conservative Party

Latest

Canada

Mexico

China

Japan

South Korea

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House on Feb. 20, 2026, after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Trump's use of emergency powers to implement international trade tariffs.

Global Trade

The Trump administration will use other trade authorities to replace many of the IEEPA tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, meaning U.S. trading partners will remain incentivized to engage on trade matters.

What the Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Means for Trump and U.S. Trading Partners

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Sudan

Egypt

Destroyed vehicles are strewn outside Sudan's finance ministry building in the capital Khartoum on Jan. 17, 2026, after nearly three years of devastating war in the country.

Ethiopia's apparent tilt toward the RSF paramilitary group in neighboring Sudan could trigger deadly border clashes and prompt the Sudanese military to deepen ties with Tigrayan forces.

Ethiopia Discreetly Dips Into Sudan's Civil War

United Kingdom

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer leaves Downing Street on Feb. 2, 2026, in London. 

While the crisis could see Labour elect a new leader in the coming months, broad party consensus and fiscal constraints make sharp policy shifts unlikely, limiting the risk of sustained market volatility.

In the U.K., Starmer's Leadership Struggles Reach a Tipping Point

Japanese Prime Minister and President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Sanae Takaichi reacts as she speaks with media on the day of lower house elections at the LDP headquarters in Tokyo on Feb. 8, 2026. 

The LDP's decisive lower house victory will enable Prime Minister Takaichi to boost social and defense spending and strengthen ties with the U.S., though at the expense of Japan’s relations with China and South Korea.

Election Landslide Stabilizes Japanese Politics, Cements Defense Modernization

Tunisia

Supporters of Tunisia's General Labour Union (UGTT) wave the national flag during a rally in Tunis on Aug. 21, 2025.

If the UGTT fails to resolve internal disputes and stage an effective national strike, President Saied will likely launch an expanded crackdown that further weakens the powerful labor union and, consequently, its private-sector bargaining power.

In Tunisia, UGTT Infighting Risks Playing Into President Saied's Hands

Emirati flags on Feb. 4 in Abu Dhabi, UAE. On Feb. 4-5, delegations from Russia, Ukraine and the United States held a second round of trilateral talks in the United Arab Emirates.

The talks are unlikely to produce a near-term settlement, as Russia will continue to press its territorial demands while using diplomacy to manage sanctions pressure and build leverage ahead of a spring-summer offensive.

The Limits of Russia-Ukraine-U.S. Talks

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

U.S.-Iran Relations

Germany

France

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Syria

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

U.S.-China Relations

North Korea

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi gave a speech outlining her policies on Feb. 20 to open a special session of the Diet that will last through July 17, according to a readout from the prime minister's office.

Japan: Takaichi Outlines Policy Plans for 2026

North Korea's supreme leader Kim Jong Un gave a speech on Feb. 20 in Pyongyang to open the Workers' Party of Korea's quinquennial party congress, which North Korea's KCNA said began on Feb. 19.

North Korea: Kim Commences Quinquennial Party Congress

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto signed the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade with the United States, lowering U.S. tariffs on most Indonesian exports from a threatened 32% to 19% in exchange for Indonesia eliminating tariffs on roughly 99% of U.S. exports and easing nontariff barriers such as import licensing and local content rules, according to a readout from the Office of the United States Trade Representative published Feb. 20.

Indonesia, U.S.: 19% Tariff Deal Includes Third Country 'Poison Pill' Safeguard

Australia

Mongolia

Russia's aluminum giant Rusal requested enforcement measures in its 100 billion ruble ($1.1 billion) claim against British-Australian mining company Rio Tinto, including seizure of a stake in an unnamed company widely believed to be Rio Tinto's 66% holding in Mongolia's Oyu Tolgoi copper project, Kommersant reported on Feb. 20, citing a Russian appellate court filing.

Russia, Mongolia: Russian Court Ruling Introduces Uncertainty in Mongolian Copper Mine

Colombia

Colombia's President Gustavo Petro issued a decree maintaining the 23.7% increase to the minimum wage his government announced in December, but which the country's top administrative court had suspended on Feb. 13, El Pais reported on Feb. 19.

Colombia: Petro Maintains 23% Minimum Wage Increase Following Court Challenge

Brazil

Science & Technology

After attending the India AI Impact Summit, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will hold bilateral talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Feb. 21, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 19.

India, Brazil: Lula Is Set To Meet Modi Amid Negotiations on Critical Minerals and Rare Earths

Turkey

A nuclear cooperation deal between the United States and Saudi Arabia may include provisions for the latter to domestically enrich uranium, Reuters reported on Feb. 19, citing congressional documents. 

U.S., Saudi Arabia: Saudi Nuclear Deal May Include Uranium Enrichment

Cuba

American Airlines planes sit on the tarmac at Jose Marti International Airport in Havana on Feb. 9, 2026. 

Facing imminent economic collapse and the loss of key allies, the Cuban government will likely yield to U.S. demands for market liberalization to avoid a total breakdown of state authority while attempting to preserve political control.

Economic Concessions to U.S. Offer Path for Regime Survival in Cuba

Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025. 

Achieving South Arabian independence will require Yemen's Southern Transitional Council to overcome the historical challenges that have long plagued the governance of Yemen writ large, like tribalism and regionalism.

The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

Taiwan

Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.

The 2025 Taiwan National Defense Report reflects Taipei's growing intent and tactical capabilities for deterrence by denial against a Chinese invasion, but it also highlights persistent challenges that contribute to a continually rising risk of conflict through 2028.

Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation

The U.S. Department of Defense warned it would retaliate if the European Union amends its defense procurement directive in ways that restrict U.S. arms manufacturers' access to member-state contracts, Politico reported on Feb. 19.

EU, U.S.: Washington Warns Brussels Against Expanding 'Buy European' Defense Rules

South Korean unification minister Chung Dong-young expressed "regret" over recent civilian drone incursions into North Korea and announced three measures to prevent future incidents, including reinstating a no-fly zone near the border, the Korean Broadcasting System reported on Feb. 19.

Korean Peninsula: Seoul's Charm Offensive Bears Modest Fruit With Pyongyang

Three Vietnamese airlines announced about $37 billion worth of Boeing aircraft purchases and related financing and engine agreements as Communist Party chief To Lam visited Washington to finalize the two countries' larger trade deals and attend U.S. President Donald Trump's inaugural Board of Peace meeting, state media Bao Chinh Phu reported on Feb. 19.

Vietnam, Indonesia, U.S.: Trade Diplomacy Anchored in Big Ticket Industrial Deals

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

What the Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Means for Trump and U.S. Trading Partners

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Japan: Takaichi Outlines Policy Plans for 2026

North Korea: Kim Commences Quinquennial Party Congress

Indonesia, U.S.: 19% Tariff Deal Includes Third Country 'Poison Pill' Safeguard

Russia, Mongolia: Russian Court Ruling Introduces Uncertainty in Mongolian Copper Mine

Colombia: Petro Maintains 23% Minimum Wage Increase Following Court Challenge

India, Brazil: Lula Is Set To Meet Modi Amid Negotiations on Critical Minerals and Rare Earths

U.S., Saudi Arabia: Saudi Nuclear Deal May Include Uranium Enrichment

EU, U.S.: Washington Warns Brussels Against Expanding 'Buy European' Defense Rules

Korean Peninsula: Seoul's Charm Offensive Bears Modest Fruit With Pyongyang

Vietnam, Indonesia, U.S.: Trade Diplomacy Anchored in Big Ticket Industrial Deals

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