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On GeopoliticsJul 5, 2018 | 20:24 GMT
Mexico's new president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, speaks July 1 during a celebration at Zocalo square in Mexico City.
What Will Lopez Obrador Do About Mexico's Corruption?
Some political regimes bend for decades until they break. After years of pressure building on Mexico’s political establishment, an overwhelming presidential and legislative victory by populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador might be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Mexican voters propelled Lopez Obrador into the country’s highest office with more than half the national vote, the highest tally for any presidential candidate since 1994. Lopez Obrador has a strong platform to target well-entrenched political adversaries under a broad, anti-corruption umbrella. The new president, however, could trigger major upheaval as he strives to tackle graft that has infested the public and private and sectors. The question now is whether Lopez Obrador turns to political pragmatism once in power – becoming a product of the system he was elected to dismantle – or uses the powerful tools at his disposal to try and upend the country’s political order.
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AssessmentsFeb 2, 2018 | 00:14 GMT
Major international oil companies know that the next Mexican president will be limited in any energy reform rollback.
Big Oil Sees Untapped Potential in Mexico
Despite the looming possibility of a populist presidential candidate winning the high office in Mexico, "Big Oil" is betting on the longevity of energy reform in the country. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who currently leads the presidential election polls, is promising to reverse aspects of the country's energy reforms. But from the perspective of the major international oil companies, a Lopez Obrador presidency would be little more than than a six-year nuisance, because he lacks the ability to rewrite the legal fundamentals in a way to last beyond his term.
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SnapshotsAug 4, 2017 | 19:08 GMT
Mexico: Lawmakers Propose Reforms to Piece Together a Fractured Congress
Mexico’s ruling Revolutionary Institutional Party (PRI) proposed reforms to federal legislation that could institute a coalition government by 2018. The purpose of legalizing a coalition government is to overcome logistical challenges posed by Mexico’s political fragmentation. Since the 1990s, Mexico’s political landscape splintered as several competing parties gained seats at the expense of the PRI. The PRI, which once held virtually all major elected offices in Mexico, now jostles for power in Congress with the conservative National Action Party (PAN), the more leftist Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD). Meanwhile, former Federal District Head of Government Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador formed his own party, National Regeneration Movement, for the 2018 presidential campaign, which threatens to further divide Congress.
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AssessmentsJun 12, 2017 | 09:15 GMT
The results of the June 4 gubernatorial election in Mexico state confirmed that the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) is a force to be reckoned with.
In Mexico, a Political Straitjacket for Populism
Mexican elections are getting more competitive, but even if next year's presidential race brings a change in government, the country's policies will largely stay the same. For more than a year, polls in Mexico have suggested that the relatively new National Regeneration Movement (Morena) -- a populist party formed by three-time presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador -- stands a real chance of winning the presidency. The results of the June 4 gubernatorial election in Mexico state only confirmed that Morena is a force to be reckoned with. Though Morena candidate Delfina Gomez Alvarez lost by 3 points to Alfredo del Mazo Maza of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), she outperformed candidates from the National Action Party (PAN) and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) by double digits.
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AssessmentsFeb 16, 2017 | 18:58 GMT
Why Mexico's Main Political Parties Are Moving to Quash the Competition
Why Mexico's Main Political Parties Are Moving to Quash the Competition
The nature of political power in Mexico is changing, and the country's three major parties are struggling to keep up. A representative of the opposition National Action Party (PAN) announced on Feb. 15 that the party had presented a proposal to Congress to add a runoff vote to Mexico's presidential elections. If the bill passes, it would require first- and second-place candidates to face off against each other in the event that neither garners a certain level of popular support (in all likelihood, half of the vote). And in a country where no president has won a clear majority in nearly three decades, such a setup would be guaranteed to make Mexican politics less competitive -- and more contentious.
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AssessmentsOct 18, 2016 | 09:16 GMT
Mexico's Energy Reform Will Remain the Law of the Land
Mexico's Energy Reform Will Remain the Law of the Land
Left-wing Mexican presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador appears to have a reasonable chance of winning Mexico's 2018 presidential election. His National Regeneration Movement, aka Morena, is part of a crowded field along with the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) and the National Action Party (PAN) in the race, where only a plurality of the vote is required to win. Lopez Obrador has been a vocal critic of Mexico's landmark 2013 energy reforms, which he has promised to overturn. Although his rhetoric has varied since the reforms were implemented, his statements suggest he would like to reverse Mexico's opening to private energy investment. Morena has also previously floated the idea of giving national oil company Petroleos Mexicanos the ability to assign fields without auctions and awarding Pemex a minimum stake in each new project.
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ReflectionsSep 1, 2016 | 01:29 GMT
Making Sense of Trump’s Visit to Mexico
Making Sense of Trump's Visit to Mexico
Putting ourselves in the shoes of the Mexican president, we can understand why his government would be so keen to keep a dialogue open with both U.S. presidential candidates. Mexico's economic health and security are deeply intertwined with the United States. Regardless of who ends up in the White House, Mexico City needs a close working relationship with Washington.
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AssessmentsAug 5, 2016 | 09:00 GMT
What a Divided Legislature Means for Mexico
What a Divided Legislature Means for Mexico
In Mexico, preparations are already underway for the next presidential election, now less than two years away. Over the next year and a half, Mexico's political parties will select candidates to represent them in the 2018 election, which stands to shake up the country's economic and political status quo more than previous races. With three or four major political parties vying for office, the contest may be the most competitive presidential race in Mexico's recent history. The current president, Enrique Pena Nieto, is not eligible for re-election, and after decades of waning popularity, the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party's approval ratings are relatively low. Now, the explicitly populist National Regeneration Movement party, led by two-time leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, increasingly appears capable of making a credible bid for the presidency, a worrisome prospect for foreign business interests in Mexico. Nonetheless, Mexico's split legislature and reliance on foreign investment would
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AssessmentsJun 6, 2016 | 18:19 GMT
What an Electoral Upset Means for Mexico
According to preliminary results, Mexico's ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) has lost gubernatorial elections in several of its most important strongholds. The PRI fared much worse than expected in the June 5 elections held in 12 of Mexico's 31 states, apparently losing in at least seven. Six of those states -- including Veracruz and Tamaulipas, which had been under PRI control for more than eight decades -- were among the PRI's most important bastions of support. An alliance between the center-right National Action Party (PAN) and the left-wing Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) defeated the PRI in Veracruz.
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AssessmentsJun 4, 2016 | 13:26 GMT
Mexico’s Gubernatorial Elections Could Predict Presidency
Mexico's Gubernatorial Elections Could Presage Presidency
Gubernatorial elections will take place in 12 of Mexico's 31 states on June 5. These will provide a measure of the popularity of the ruling Revolutionary Institutional Party (PRI) in advance of the 2018 presidential race. If opinion polls are accurate, the PRI -- which has historically dominated state-level elections -- holds an advantage in seven states, but its grasp on the remainder is far from solid.
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