<p>The Middle East and North Africa is the world&#39;s crossroads. It encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the mountains of Iran, the plains of Turkey, the deserts of the Levant, the lands north of the Sahara and all coasts in between. The story of the region, as is so often the case of places stuck between foreign players, is the story of trade, exchange and conflict. The traditional powers of the region are Turkey and Iran &mdash; Saudi Arabia and Egypt are the current Arab powers &mdash; and their competition for influence over the region&#39;s weaker states makes the Middle East and North Africa an arena of violence and instability.</p>

The Middle East and North Africa encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the mountains of Iran, the plains of Turkey, the deserts of the Levant, the lands north of the Sahara and all coasts in between.

Middle East and North Africa

Algeria

Bahrain

Egypt

Iran

Iraq

Israel

Jordan

Kuwait

Lebanon

Libya

Morocco

Oman

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Tunisia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Western Sahara

Yemen

The Syrian Civil War

The Yemen Civil War

The Libyan Civil War

The Fight Against the Islamic State

The Saudi Survival Strategy

The Kurdish Struggle

Iran's Arc of Influence

Israel's Survival Strategy

The Difficulties of North African Reform

Egypt's Uphill Battle

The Battle for Mosul

Assessments

United States

Greenland

Vietnam

Denmark

France

Switzerland

Ukraine

Russia

A sniper police officer on the Congress hotel during the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum on Jan. 24, 2025, in the Alpine resort of Davos, Switzerland.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Davos, Europe Steps Up Greenland Deployments

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Somalia

Sudan

Residents wave Somali flags as they attend a rally denouncing Israel's recognition of the breakaway region of Somaliland at Mogadishu Stadium in Mogadishu, Somalia, on Dec. 30, 2025. 

Economics

Two regional alignments are coalescing along the Red Sea and in the Horn of Africa, risking the escalation of proxy conflicts and longstanding rivalries.

The Unfolding Regional Realignments Along the Red Sea and Their Implications

Citizens gather to welcome the arrival of vehicles transporting Kurdish fighters from the northern city of Aleppo to the Kurdish-controlled northeastern city of Qamishli on Jan. 11, 2026.

The government's success in forcing the Kurdish-backed militia out of the city will likely reduce fighting there, but it may also lead to a larger localized conflict in the northeast that disrupts Kurdish integration and potentially oil exports.

In Syria, the SDF's Withdrawal From Aleppo Will Complicate Kurdish Integration Efforts

People gather during a protest in Tehran, Iran, on Jan. 8, 2026. 

The severity of Iran's crackdown on protesters makes it highly likely that Trump will authorize some form of action (e.g., sanctions, cyberattacks or military strikes), with Tehran likely to respond proportionally unless the regime's survival is threatened.

The Risks and Implications of a U.S. Attack Against Iran

U.S.-Iran Relations

A stock image shows the silhouettes of soldiers.

Emboldened by its recent capture of Venezuela's Maduro, the White House will likely seek to kill and potentially abduct more Middle Eastern extremists in the coming year, but pursuing high-profile targets like Iranian leaders will carry significant risks.

Potential Targets for U.S. Assassination and Abduction Operations in the Middle East

Nigeria

Colombia

Cuba

Mexico

Venezuela

China

Taiwan

Europe

Norway

India

Pakistan

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Trade

Social Issues

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

U.S.-China Relations

Benin

Uganda

Canada

The Greenlandic flag on Jan. 8, 2026, on the roof of Tivoli Castle in Copenhagen, Denmark. Ukraine security talks and a Gaza peace plan will be in the spotlight at Davos.

The Weekly Rundown: Elections in Uganda and Benin, Canada's Carney Goes to China

Soldiers ride atop an armored vehicle during a military parade in Idlib, Syria, on Dec. 8, 2025. 

Domestic political maneuvering and limits on foreign military support will constrain Syria's ability to rebuild its military following the end of the country's civil war.

Internal Divisions Will Hinder Syria's Military Modernization

Snapshots

Israeli troops patrol the border fence with Syria near the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Israel-annexed Golan Heights on July 23, 2025. 

While the new U.S.-backed intelligence-sharing agreement will help temporarily ease cross-border tensions, unresolved security issues and structural constraints undermine the prospects for deeper normalization.

Syria-Israel Deal Paves Way for Broader Security Coordination, but Constraints Remain

Activists hold Iranian flags in support of the ongoing protests in Iran during a rally in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 3, 2026.

The demonstrations could endure for several more weeks or months before they are ultimately suppressed, opening the door to risky Israeli and/or U.S. military or covert action against Iranian senior leadership amid the turmoil.

Protests in Iran Provide a Window for U.S. and/or Israeli Intervention

Syria's provisional government said it had reached a four-day ceasefire with the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, in an attempt to negotiate the final integration of the remaining SDF forces, Al Jazeera reported on Jan. 20.

Syria: Government Reaches Ceasefire With SDF To Promote Integration

Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Hani Sweilem said Ethiopia should pay Egypt compensation due to its management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, claiming that the dam had reduced Egypt's use of Nile waters from its allocated 55 billion cubic meters to 38 billion cubic meters, Addis Standard reported on Jan. 20. 

Egypt, Ethiopia: Cairo Demands Compensation Over GERD Following Trump Mediation Proposal

Energy

UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a brief meeting in New Delhi, where the two signed a 10-year liquefied natural gas energy supply agreement under which the United Arab Emirates will supply India with some $3 billion worth of LNG over 10 years, for a total of 0.5 million metric tons of LNG a year, AP reported on Jan. 19.

India, UAE: Governments Sign Energy, Defense Agreements

Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Somalia are in advanced talks to seal a military partnership, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 16.

Red Sea: Saudi Arabia in Talks To Finalize Military Partnership With Egypt, Somalia 

Venezuelan acting President Delcy Rodriguez said in an annual address before the National Assembly that Venezuela is a sovereign nation that has the right to maintain ties with Russia, China, Iran and Cuba, El Pais reported on Jan. 15.

Venezuela: Rodriguez Outlines Challenging Balancing Act in Speech Before National Assembly

The National Committee for the Administration of the Gaza Strip (NCAG), the 15-person committee of Palestinian technocrats tasked by the U.N. Security Council and the Board of Peace with governing Gaza, convened for the first time in Cairo, Egypt, Reuters reported Jan. 15.

Palestinian Territories: Gaza Committee of Technocrats Convenes for First Time

Yemen's Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council appointed a fresh prime minister who is a former ambassador to Saudi Arabia and dismissed a Southern Transitional Council member on Jan. 15, Al Jazeera reported on Jan. 16, citing Yemen's Saba state news.

Yemen: Leadership Changes in Anti-Houthi Bloc Tighten Saudi Arabia's Grip on Yemen

U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran would cease executing detained protesters, a key demand of the Trump administration amid threats of military intervention, but the president declined to firmly rule out strikes on Iran, Reuters reported on Jan. 14.

Iran, U.S.: Tensions Lower as Executions in Iran Reportedly Cease, but U.S. Strikes Remain Possible

Middle East and North Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

Syria: Government Reaches Ceasefire With SDF To Promote Integration

Egypt, Ethiopia: Cairo Demands Compensation Over GERD Following Trump Mediation Proposal

India, UAE: Governments Sign Energy, Defense Agreements

Red Sea: Saudi Arabia in Talks To Finalize Military Partnership With Egypt, Somalia

Venezuela: Rodriguez Outlines Challenging Balancing Act in Speech Before National Assembly

Palestinian Territories: Gaza Committee of Technocrats Convenes for First Time

Yemen: Leadership Changes in Anti-Houthi Bloc Tighten Saudi Arabia's Grip on Yemen

Iran, U.S.: Tensions Lower as Executions in Iran Reportedly Cease, but U.S. Strikes Remain Possible

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support