<p>The Middle East and North Africa is the world&#39;s crossroads. It encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the mountains of Iran, the plains of Turkey, the deserts of the Levant, the lands north of the Sahara and all coasts in between. The story of the region, as is so often the case of places stuck between foreign players, is the story of trade, exchange and conflict. The traditional powers of the region are Turkey and Iran &mdash; Saudi Arabia and Egypt are the current Arab powers &mdash; and their competition for influence over the region&#39;s weaker states makes the Middle East and North Africa an arena of violence and instability.</p>

The Middle East and North Africa encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the mountains of Iran, the plains of Turkey, the deserts of the Levant, the lands north of the Sahara and all coasts in between.

Middle East and North Africa

Algeria

Bahrain

Egypt

Iran

Iraq

Israel

Jordan

Kuwait

Lebanon

Libya

Morocco

Oman

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Tunisia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Western Sahara

Yemen

The Syrian Civil War

The Yemen Civil War

The Libyan Civil War

The Fight Against the Islamic State

The Saudi Survival Strategy

The Kurdish Struggle

Iran's Arc of Influence

Israel's Survival Strategy

The Difficulties of North African Reform

Egypt's Uphill Battle

The Battle for Mosul

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Military & Security

Nation-states' growing use of hacktivist personas to obfuscate responsibility will increasingly enable them to attack targets they would otherwise avoid and spread propaganda.

Hacktivism Offers Plausible Deniability for State-Backed Cyber Actors

An exterior view of the building of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters is seen on March 27, 2020, in Washington, D.C. 

Economics

The partial privatization of state- and military-owned assets will increase Egypt's foreign currency reserves, but it will likely only somewhat boost productivity and business competition.

IMF Pressure Breathes New Life Into Egypt's Privatization Efforts

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

A billboard depicting a Houthi military official who was killed during Yemen's civil war overlooks the Yemeni capital city of Sanaa on Jan. 2, 2025. 

When its increased attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen likely fail to deter the militants, Israel will escalate further, potentially spreading the conflict into the Gulf states and restarting the Yemeni civil war.

Israel's Expanding Campaign in Yemen Risks Reigniting the Civil War

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

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Israel-Hamas Conflict

Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025. 

2025 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

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Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro waits for the arrival of other heads of state of members of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America regional trading bloc during the XXIV ALBA-TCP Summit in Caracas, Venezuela, on Dec. 14, 2024. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Inaugurations in Ghana and Venezuela, Yoon's Potential Arrest in South Korea

Columns

On Geopolitics

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags.

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Abu Mohammed al-Golani (C), the head of Syria's leading insurgent group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, speaks during a press conference near Syria's northern Bab al Hawa border crossing with Turkey late on March 12, 2024.

Rival Gulf Arab states will pursue divergent goals amid Syria's evolving political transition, raising the likelihood of factionalism and resurging violence in the war-torn country. 

Gulf States' Competing Interests Could Disrupt Syria's Political Transition

North Korea

As 2025 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five events as measured by geopolitical impact.

Environment, Science & Technology

2024: A Geopolitical Review

Global Elections

India

The Geopolitics of Water

Water utilities are uniquely vulnerable to cyberattacks due to frequent financial and security limitations, exposing water-stressed countries to threats from hacktivists and foreign adversaries.

 The Geopolitics of Water: Cyberattacks' Impact on Water Stress in the U.S. and Beyond

Israeli, Arab and U.S. officials said Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas had agreed in principle to a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, CBS News reported on Jan 14. 

Israel, Gaza: Hamas, Israel Reach Agreement in Principle for First Phase of Ceasefire

A spokesperson for Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, said enabling Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to run for a fourth term in the 2028 presidential election was "on the agenda" but depended on Turkish citizens' interest, Reuters reported on Jan. 13.

Turkey: AKP Indicates Push for Erdogan To Run for Reelection in 2028

Ethiopia

Somalia

Somali State Foreign Minister Ali Balcad said obstacles hindering Ethiopia’s participation in the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia, or AUSSOM, had been overcome, Voice of America reported on Jan. 12.

Somalia: Government Open to Ethiopia Participating in AUSSOM

Germany

France

Italy

During a meeting between European, U.S. and Arab diplomats, Syrian and Saudi officials called on Western governments to ease sanctions on Syria, and European diplomats agreed to discuss sanctions relief in Syria during a Jan. 27 foreign ministers meeting, Al Jazeera reported on Jan. 12.

Syria: Arab Diplomats Call on EU To Ease Sanctions on Syria

United Kingdom

The Israeli air force conducted airstrikes on the Hezyaz power plant near Sanaa and infrastructure at the ports of al-Hudaydah and Ras Isa in Houthi-controlled Yemen shortly after the United States and the United Kingdom reportedly conducted airstrikes on Houthi underground military infrastructure north of Sanaa, The Times of Israel reported on Jan. 10.

Yemen: Israel Strikes Houthi Targets Shortly After Reported U.S. Coalition Attacks

Earth's average surface temperature in 2024 was 1.60 degrees Celsius above preindustrial temperatures, the European Union's Copernicus Climate Service confirmed on Jan. 10. 

Global: Average Surface Temperatures Breached 1.5-Degree Threshold in 2024

At a U.N. Security Council meeting on Jan. 8, China's U.N. ambassador Fu Cong urged the new Syrian government to "fulfill its counterterrorism obligations" and prevent terrorists in Syria from threatening other countries, the South China Morning Post reported on Jan. 9. 

China, Syria: Chinese Envoy Raises Concerns About Uyghurs in Syria

Lebanon's National Assembly elected former commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces Joseph Aoun as the country's 14th president, Reuters reported on Jan. 9. 

Lebanon: National Assembly Elects Former Army Commander as New President

Middle East and North Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

Israel, Gaza: Hamas, Israel Reach Agreement in Principle for First Phase of Ceasefire

Turkey: AKP Indicates Push for Erdogan To Run for Reelection in 2028

Somalia: Government Open to Ethiopia Participating in AUSSOM

Syria: Arab Diplomats Call on EU To Ease Sanctions on Syria

Yemen: Israel Strikes Houthi Targets Shortly After Reported U.S. Coalition Attacks

Global: Average Surface Temperatures Breached 1.5-Degree Threshold in 2024

China, Syria: Chinese Envoy Raises Concerns About Uyghurs in Syria

Lebanon: National Assembly Elects Former Army Commander as New President

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