<p>The Middle East and North Africa is the world&#39;s crossroads. It encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the mountains of Iran, the plains of Turkey, the deserts of the Levant, the lands north of the Sahara and all coasts in between. The story of the region, as is so often the case of places stuck between foreign players, is the story of trade, exchange and conflict. The traditional powers of the region are Turkey and Iran &mdash; Saudi Arabia and Egypt are the current Arab powers &mdash; and their competition for influence over the region&#39;s weaker states makes the Middle East and North Africa an arena of violence and instability.</p>

The Middle East and North Africa encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the mountains of Iran, the plains of Turkey, the deserts of the Levant, the lands north of the Sahara and all coasts in between.

Middle East and North Africa

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The Yemen Civil War

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Iran's Arc of Influence

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The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.

2025 Third-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

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Australia

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A photo taken in Tehran, Iran, on June 26, 2025, shows an Iranian political banner hanging near the remains of a residential building struck by an Israeli attack. 

Global Trade

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Fragile Iran-Israel Ceasefire Holds, U.S. Tariff Deadline Approaches

U.S.-Iran Relations

Media

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Third-Quarter Forecast.

2025 Third-Quarter Forecast Webcast

U.S.-China Relations

An oil tanker is seen at Saudi Arabia’s port of Ras al-Khair. 

Energy

Despite the ceasefire, the risk of a renewed conflict remains, which could again drive oil prices higher if Iran and/or its proxies begin attacking regional oil infrastructure and shipping.

Assessing the Oil Market Volatility Caused by the Israel-Iran War

Snapshots

Iranian missiles aimed at targets in Israel pass through the sky over the West Bank on June 17, 2025. 

Even if the ceasefire holds in the coming weeks and months, outstanding U.S. and Israeli concerns with Iran's ballistic missile and nuclear programs could reignite hostilities.

The Iran-Israel Ceasefire Will Remain Fragile Amid Unresolved Disputes

Podcasts

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

What cyber limitations and capabilities do Iran and Israel have?

Essential Geopolitics: Increased Risk of Cyberattacks as Conflict With Iran Escalates

A photo taken on June 23, 2025, shows the remnants of an Iranian missile intercepted over Qatar. 

Absent further retaliation, Iran's June 23 attack offers a path to de-escalation, but there is still a chance, albeit slim, that additional U.S. strikes trigger a wider conflict.

With a Telegraphed Attack on a U.S. Base in Qatar, Iran Offers an Off-Ramp To Ease Tensions

A Northrop B-2 Spirit on July 4, 2020, near the White House in Washington. 

Even if carefully calibrated, Iranian retaliation of any form will risk inviting more U.S. strikes and greater escalation that could result in Iran following through on more of its significant threats against the regional oil and gas sector and/or the United States.

Iran's Retaliation Against the U.S. Will Likely Be Limited, but Will Still Risk Escalation

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

Ukraine

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Israeli air defense systems are activated to intercept Iranian missiles over the Israeli city of Tel Aviv early on June 18, 2025. 

The Weekly Rundown: Israel-Iran Conflict Rages On, NATO Holds Annual Summit

Columns

On Geopolitics

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addresses the nation in a state television broadcast on June 18, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. 

While Israel's airstrikes appear aimed at destabilizing the country, they are alone unlikely to collapse the Islamic Republic, as Iranian leaders would probably make significant concessions to ensure the regime's survival rather than let it fall.

Assessing the Potential for Regime Change in Iran

An Iranian-linked threat group that previously hacked U.S. President Donald Trump's 2024 campaign is now threatening to release another trove of emails from his associates, including White House chief of staff Susie Wiles and personal advisor Roger Stone, Reuters reported June 30.

U.S.: Iranian Threat Actors Threaten To Release Emails Linked to Trump Aides

Turkey's Izmir prosecutor ordered the detention of 157 people, many of whom are members of the opposition Republican People's Party, or CHP, including a former mayor of Izmir, a CHP provincial chair and other former members of the city administration, Hurriyet reported on July 1.

Turkey: 157 Opposition Figures Arrested in Izmir Crackdown

U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to partially lift sanctions on Syria, the White House announced on June 30.

U.S., Syria: U.S. Lifts Some, but Not All, Sanctions on Syria

In a break from routine, Turkey will not increase its minimum wage mid-year in a bid to further cool inflation and appease investors concerned about the country's economic strategy, Bloomberg reported on June 27.

Turkey: Ankara To Skip Mid-Year Minimum Wage Raise

China hosted defense ministers from Russia and Iran during a Shanghai Cooperation Organization, or SCO, meeting on security, AFP reported on June 26. 

China, Russia, Iran: Shanghai Cooperation Organization Meeting Highlights Limits of Material Alignment

U.S. President Donald Trump criticized the long-running corruption trial against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a TruthSocial post and said the trial should be cancelled, Reuters reported on June 26.

U.S., Israel: Trump Criticizes Israeli Corruption Case as Polls Signal Waning Support for Netanyahu

Israel's Chevron-operated Leviathan and Karish gas fields resumed operations on June 25 after the June 24 Israel-Iran ceasefire went into effect, Reuters reported on June 25.

Israel: Largest Gas Field Resumes Operations After Ceasefire

Iran's parliament unanimously passed a bill suspending cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and requiring IAEA inspectors to gain approval from Iran's Supreme National Security Council before conducting inspections, Reuters reported on June 25.

Iran: Parliament Formally Passes Bill To Restrict Cooperation With IAEA

Middle East and North Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S.: Iranian Threat Actors Threaten To Release Emails Linked to Trump Aides

Turkey: 157 Opposition Figures Arrested in Izmir Crackdown

U.S., Syria: U.S. Lifts Some, but Not All, Sanctions on Syria

Turkey: Ankara To Skip Mid-Year Minimum Wage Raise

China, Russia, Iran: Shanghai Cooperation Organization Meeting Highlights Limits of Material Alignment

U.S., Israel: Trump Criticizes Israeli Corruption Case as Polls Signal Waning Support for Netanyahu

Israel: Largest Gas Field Resumes Operations After Ceasefire

Iran: Parliament Formally Passes Bill To Restrict Cooperation With IAEA

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