<p>The Middle East and North Africa is the world&#39;s crossroads. It encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the mountains of Iran, the plains of Turkey, the deserts of the Levant, the lands north of the Sahara and all coasts in between. The story of the region, as is so often the case of places stuck between foreign players, is the story of trade, exchange and conflict. The traditional powers of the region are Turkey and Iran &mdash; Saudi Arabia and Egypt are the current Arab powers &mdash; and their competition for influence over the region&#39;s weaker states makes the Middle East and North Africa an arena of violence and instability.</p>

The Middle East and North Africa encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the mountains of Iran, the plains of Turkey, the deserts of the Levant, the lands north of the Sahara and all coasts in between.

Middle East and North Africa

Algeria

Bahrain

Egypt

Iran

Iraq

Israel

Jordan

Kuwait

Lebanon

Libya

Morocco

Oman

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Tunisia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Western Sahara

Yemen

The Syrian Civil War

The Yemen Civil War

The Libyan Civil War

The Fight Against the Islamic State

The Saudi Survival Strategy

The Kurdish Struggle

Iran's Arc of Influence

Israel's Survival Strategy

The Difficulties of North African Reform

Egypt's Uphill Battle

The Battle for Mosul

Assessments

United States

People gather during a protest in Tehran, Iran, on Jan. 8, 2026. 

Military & Security

Politics

The severity of Iran's crackdown on protesters makes it highly likely that Trump will authorize some form of action (e.g., sanctions, cyberattacks or military strikes), with Tehran likely to respond proportionally unless the regime's survival is threatened.

The Risks and Implications of a U.S. Attack Against Iran

U.S.-Iran Relations

A stock image shows the silhouettes of soldiers.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Emboldened by its recent capture of Venezuela's Maduro, the White House will likely seek to kill and potentially abduct more Middle Eastern extremists in the coming year, but pursuing high-profile targets like Iranian leaders will carry significant risks.

Potential Targets for U.S. Assassination and Abduction Operations in the Middle East

Nigeria

Colombia

Cuba

Mexico

Venezuela

Greenland

China

Taiwan

Europe

Norway

Ukraine

Russia

India

Pakistan

Cyber

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Trade

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

U.S.-China Relations

Benin

Uganda

Canada

Denmark

The Greenlandic flag on Jan. 8, 2026, on the roof of Tivoli Castle in Copenhagen, Denmark.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Elections in Uganda and Benin, Canada's Carney Goes to China

Soldiers ride atop an armored vehicle during a military parade in Idlib, Syria, on Dec. 8, 2025. 

Domestic political maneuvering and limits on foreign military support will constrain Syria's ability to rebuild its military following the end of the country's civil war.

Internal Divisions Will Hinder Syria's Military Modernization

Snapshots

Israeli troops patrol the border fence with Syria near the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Israel-annexed Golan Heights on July 23, 2025. 

While the new U.S.-backed intelligence-sharing agreement will help temporarily ease cross-border tensions, unresolved security issues and structural constraints undermine the prospects for deeper normalization.

Syria-Israel Deal Paves Way for Broader Security Coordination, but Constraints Remain

Activists hold Iranian flags in support of the ongoing protests in Iran during a rally in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 3, 2026.

The demonstrations could endure for several more weeks or months before they are ultimately suppressed, opening the door to risky Israeli and/or U.S. military or covert action against Iranian senior leadership amid the turmoil.

Protests in Iran Provide a Window for U.S. and/or Israeli Intervention

Sudan

Saudi-backed forces are seen on the outskirts of Yemen's Hadramawt province, where the UAE-backed secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) recently launched an offensive, on Jan. 3, 2026. 

The Gulf nations' growing battle for influence is straining bilateral ties and fueling proxy conflicts in places like Yemen and Sudan, though both sides will likely avoid any escalation that could harm their economies.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE Pursue Divergent Paths in a Multipolar World

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

Energy

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

North Korea

South Korea

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B fighter jet takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport on December 15, 2025 in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. If U.S. strikes escalate and cause significant casualties, it could make retaliatory measures -- including the arbitrary detention of U.S. citizens in Venezuela or the harassment of energy sector vessels in the region -- more likely.

The Weekly Rundown: South Korea's President Visits Beijing, U.S. Operations in Venezuela

Somalia

Somalia's federal government cancelled all port, security and commercial agreements with the United Arab Emirates on the basis that actions by the Emirati government were undermining the country's unity and territorial integrity, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 12. 

UAE, Somalia: Somaliland, Puntland, Jubaland Reject Mogadishu's Rupture of Ties With Abu Dhabi

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki accused Ethiopia of declaring war on Eritrea in an interview aired on Eritrean state television, Addis Standard reported on Jan. 13. 

Eritrea: President Isaias Accuses Ethiopia of Declaring War on Eritrea

U.S. President Donald Trump said in a Jan. 13 Truth Social post that any country "doing business" with Iran would face a 25% tariff when doing "any and all business" with the United States.

U.S., Iran: Trump Threatens 25% Tariff on Countries Doing Business With Iran

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States was designating three chapters of the Muslim Brotherhood as Specially Designated Global Terrorists, naming the chapters in Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, the New York Post reported on Jan. 13.

U.S., MENA: Washington Labels Local Muslim Brotherhood Chapters as SDGTs

The last of the remaining U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, militants withdrew from Aleppo, Reuters reported on Jan. 11.

Syria: Kurdish-Led SDF Withdraws From Aleppo

Somali Defense Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi called on Arab nations under the leadership of Saudi Arabia to take action against Somalia's breakaway region of Somaliland in an interview with Al Jazeera Arabic, drawing parallels between Somaliland and Yemen's now-dissolved Southern Transitional Council, Garowe Online reported on Jan. 12. 

Somalia: Defense Minister Calls Arab Nations To Take Action Against Somaliland

On Jan. 13, U.S. President Donald Trump will be briefed on kinetic and non-kinetic options -- including targeted strikes, cyberattacks, information operations and, least escalatory, announcing military movements like carrier deployments -- regarding a response to Iran's ongoing crackdown on protesters, ABC News reported on Jan. 12.

Iran, U.S.: Trump To Be Briefed on Iran Options on Jan. 13

Sudan's military-led government has officially returned to the capital, Khartoum, after nearly three years of operating from its wartime base in Port Sudan, BBC reported on Jan. 11. 

Sudan: Army Announces Return to Capital as Government Headquarters

Middle East and North Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

UAE, Somalia: Somaliland, Puntland, Jubaland Reject Mogadishu's Rupture of Ties With Abu Dhabi

Eritrea: President Isaias Accuses Ethiopia of Declaring War on Eritrea

U.S., Iran: Trump Threatens 25% Tariff on Countries Doing Business With Iran

U.S., MENA: Washington Labels Local Muslim Brotherhood Chapters as SDGTs

Syria: Kurdish-Led SDF Withdraws From Aleppo

Somalia: Defense Minister Calls Arab Nations To Take Action Against Somaliland

Iran, U.S.: Trump To Be Briefed on Iran Options on Jan. 13

Sudan: Army Announces Return to Capital as Government Headquarters

Forecasts

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