<p>The Middle East and North Africa is the world&#39;s crossroads. It encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the mountains of Iran, the plains of Turkey, the deserts of the Levant, the lands north of the Sahara and all coasts in between. The story of the region, as is so often the case of places stuck between foreign players, is the story of trade, exchange and conflict. The traditional powers of the region are Turkey and Iran &mdash; Saudi Arabia and Egypt are the current Arab powers &mdash; and their competition for influence over the region&#39;s weaker states makes the Middle East and North Africa an arena of violence and instability.</p>

The Middle East and North Africa encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the mountains of Iran, the plains of Turkey, the deserts of the Levant, the lands north of the Sahara and all coasts in between.

Middle East and North Africa

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As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

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A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B fighter jet takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport on December 15, 2025 in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. If U.S. strikes escalate and cause significant casualties, it could make retaliatory measures -- including the arbitrary detention of U.S. citizens in Venezuela or the harassment of energy sector vessels in the region -- more likely.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South Korea's President Visits Beijing, U.S. Operations in Venezuela

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On Geopolitics

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

Global Trade

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

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Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Snapshots

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Somalia

Sudan

Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on Dec. 26, 2025. 

Israel establishing military facilities in Somaliland would invite Houthi attacks against the territory and raise the likelihood of renewed disruptions to Red Sea shipping.


Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Raises the Stakes Along the Red Sea Corridor 

Media

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How has U.S. interest in the Middle East evolved over time? 

Essential Geopolitics: A Historical Look Back on U.S.-Middle East Relations

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The Bulgarian flag and the European flag waving in the wind.

The Weekly Rundown: Bulgaria Adopts the Euro, U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Persist

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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi walks alongside Oman's Deputy Prime Minister for Defence Affairs Sayyid Shihab bin Tariq al-Said upon his arrival in Muscat on Dec. 17, 2025.

New trade pacts offer gains in market access and investment but India's protectionist stance on agriculture and dairy remains an obstacle to deals with the United States and European Union. 


Oman and New Zealand Deals Indicate India's Push To Diversify Trade Partnerships

Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025. 

Achieving South Arabian independence will require Yemen's Southern Transitional Council to overcome the historical challenges that have long plagued the governance of Yemen writ large, like tribalism and regionalism.

The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

YemenYemenis rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council on Dec. 14, 2025.

Escalating tensions and potential violence between the Southern Transitional Council and Saudi-backed forces create security vacuums that Houthi rebels will likely exploit.



Yemen's Anti-Houthi Bloc Is Fracturing

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar visited Somaliland for the first time since Israel recognized Somaliland as an independent country on Dec. 27, 2025, Reuters reported on Jan. 6.

Israel, Somalia: Israeli Foreign Minister Conducts First Visit to Somaliland After Recognition

At least 19 protesters have been killed in Iran as of Jan. 4 as protests entered their ninth day on Jan. 5, the BBC reported the same day, citing a report by the U.S.-based nongovernmental organization Human Rights Activists in Iran.

Iran: Trump Reiterates Warnings to Iran as Protests Continue Into Ninth Day

France

Israel and Syria resumed U.S.-mediated talks in Paris on a security agreement after around two months of negotiations being frozen, Reuters reported Jan. 5. 

Syria, Israel: Syria and Israel Resume Negotiations on Security Agreement

Yemen's Saudi-backed National Shield Forces (NSF) regained control of the strategic Hadramawt province following days of armed clashes with the secessionist UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), Bloomberg reported on Jan. 5.

Yemen: Saudi-Backed Forces Retake Southern Hadramawt Province

In a Truth Social post, U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States was "locked and loaded" and would intervene if Iran's government killed peaceful protesters in the current anti-government uprising affecting several Iranian cities.

U.S., Iran: Trump Threatens To Intervene if Iran Kills Peaceful Protesters

The leader of Yemen's separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) announced the "beginning of a two-year transition phase" toward establishing an independent southern Yemeni state, and called for a referendum vote on self-determination, Al Jazeera reported Jan. 2.

Yemen: STC Announces 'Two-Year Transition Phase' in Push for an Independent Southern State

Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said that Turkey will dispatch an oil exploration vessel off the coast of Somalia to conduct its first deepwater exploration efforts in the country next month, without specifying where exploration works would take place, Reuters reported on Jan. 2.

Somalia: Turkey To Begin Deepwater Oil Exploration as Construction Starts on Spaceport 

Somaliland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's claim that the breakaway region would host an Israeli military base and accept resettled Palestinians, the Times of Israel reported on Jan. 1.

Somalia: Somaliland Rejects Somali Claims That It Will Host Israeli Base

Middle East and North Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

Israel, Somalia: Israeli Foreign Minister Conducts First Visit to Somaliland After Recognition

Iran: Trump Reiterates Warnings to Iran as Protests Continue Into Ninth Day

Syria, Israel: Syria and Israel Resume Negotiations on Security Agreement

Yemen: Saudi-Backed Forces Retake Southern Hadramawt Province

U.S., Iran: Trump Threatens To Intervene if Iran Kills Peaceful Protesters

Yemen: STC Announces 'Two-Year Transition Phase' in Push for an Independent Southern State

Somalia: Turkey To Begin Deepwater Oil Exploration as Construction Starts on Spaceport

Somalia: Somaliland Rejects Somali Claims That It Will Host Israeli Base

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