<p>To the west of Eurasia lays Europe, a region predisposed to division. It is surrounded on nearly all sides by islands and peninsulas that make it difficult for Europe to cohere. The northern half of the continent, moreover, sits on a plain whose short, meandering rivers tend to empower countries without forcing them to work with others. The southern half is situated on more mountainous terrain that has historically impeded the creation of strong, unified economies. As a result, Europe is a continent riven by pockets of distinct cultures whose differences are all too often irreconcilable.</p>

Europe is a continent riven by pockets of distinct cultures whose differences are all too often irreconcilable.

Europe

Belize

Andorra

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Czech Republic

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Holy See

Latvia

Liechtenstein

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Malta

North Macedonia

San Marino

Sweden

United Kingdom

Bulgaria

Portugal

Serbia

Croatia

Poland

Romania

Cyprus

Norway

Austria

Slovakia

Albania

Slovenia

Netherlands

Switzerland

Spain

Montenegro

Monaco

Italy

Ireland

Iceland

Hungary

Kosovo

Beyond Quantitative Easing

The Ukraine Conflict

The Politics of Pipelines

EU: Regional Blocs

Divided EU Foreign Policies

Brexit

The Fate of the Eurozone

Banking

Crossing Borders

Globalization

European Disintegration

Echoes of the Cold War

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Assessments

United States

Greenland

The HDMS Knud Rasmussen ship of the Danish Navy patrols the waters off of Nuuk, Greenland, on Jan. 20, 2026. 

Economics

Global Trade

Military & Security

Politics

Trump's threatened tariffs over his bid to acquire Greenland have turned the U.S.-EU trade dispute into a high-stakes geopolitical confrontation, raising the risk of a sustained trade war that would severely strain transatlantic economic ties and NATO cohesion.

Trump's Greenland Tariff Threat Escalates Transatlantic Tensions

Columns

On Geopolitics

China

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Vietnam

Ukraine

Russia

A sniper police officer on the Congress hotel during the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum on Jan. 24, 2025, in the Alpine resort of Davos, Switzerland.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Davos, Europe Steps Up Greenland Deployments

Snapshots

Moldova

Moldovan President Maia Sandu (R) and Romanian President Nicusor Dan on June 10, 2025, in Chisinau, Moldova. Sandu's backing of a hypothetical union signals that joining Romania could eventually emerge as an alternative strategy to Moldova's current plan to join the European Union as an independent state.

Maia Sandu's backing of a hypothetical union signals that joining Romania could eventually emerge as an alternative strategy to Moldova's current plan to join the European Union as an independent state.

Romanian-Moldovan Unification Remains Unlikely, Despite Moldovan President's Endorsement

The flag of Greenland, known locally as "Erfalasorput," flies next to the Church of Our Saviour on March 30, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland. 

The United States' aim to acquire Greenland risks triggering a NATO crisis if U.S. and European negotiators fail to reach a settlement.

Europe Weighs Responses to U.S. Pressure Over Greenland

Nigeria

Colombia

Cuba

Mexico

Venezuela

Iran

Taiwan

India

Pakistan

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Social Issues

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Benin

Uganda

Canada

The Greenlandic flag on Jan. 8, 2026, on the roof of Tivoli Castle in Copenhagen, Denmark. Ukraine security talks and a Gaza peace plan will be in the spotlight at Davos.

The Weekly Rundown: Elections in Uganda and Benin, Canada's Carney Goes to China

The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.

Energy

Scenarios for the coming year range from unilateral military action by the United States to a U.S.-Denmark agreement to expand Washington's capabilities on the island.


How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

U.S. President Donald Trump announced in a Jan. 21 post on Truth Social that he had "formed the framework for a future deal with respect to Greenland" following a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. Trump announced that, as part of the understanding, he would not impose tariffs against eight European countries that had been set to take effect on Feb. 1.

U.S., Europe: Trump Announces 'Framework' for Future Greenland Deal

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Paraguay

Uruguay

The European Parliament voted on Jan. 21 to request a legal opinion from the EU Court of Justice on whether the EU-Mercosur trade agreement complies with EU treaties, a step that pauses the ratification process within the bloc, Politico reported the same day.

EU, Mercosur: European Parliament Refers EU-Mercosur Trade Deal to EU Court of Justice

Mauritius

Mauritian Attorney General Gavin Glover rejected comments by U.S. President Donald Trump claiming that the United Kingdom's planned handover of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius was "an act of GREAT STUPIDITY," stressing that Mauritian sovereignty was "already recognised without ambiguity under international law and should no longer be a subject for debate," the BBC reported on Jan. 20.

Mauritius: Government Rebuffs Trump's Criticism of Chagos Islands Deal With U.K.

The United Kingdom and China established a forum to discuss cyber attacks, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 20. 

China, U.K.: Governments Set Up Cyber Dialogue

French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu said Jan. 19 that he would invoke article 49.3 of the Constitution to pass the 2026 state budget without a parliamentary vote, reversing an earlier pledge not to do so after negotiations with opposition parties in the National Assembly failed to produce a compromise, Reuters reported the same day. 

France: Government To Push Through 2026 Budget Without Vote

France's Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu suspended parliamentary debate on the 2026 budget after talks with opposition lawmakers failed to yield a compromise, postponing discussions until Jan. 20, Le Monde reported on Jan. 16. 

France: PM Lecornu Suspends 2026 Budget Debate, Weighs Constitutional Options

The United States, Denmark and Greenland agreed on Jan. 14 to establish a high-level working group on Greenland's future following trilateral talks in Washington, the Financial Times reported the same day.

Denmark, U.S., Greenland: Talks Inconclusive as European Allies Build Limited Troop Presence

The European Commission on Jan. 14 adopted legislative proposals to secure financial support for Ukraine in 2026-27, including a 90 billion euro ($105 billion) loan allocating 60 billion euros for military assistance and 30 billion euros for budget support, the commission said the same day. 

EU, Ukraine: Brussels Advances Ukraine Support Package Focused on Military Procurement From EU

Europe

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Europe: Trump Announces 'Framework' for Future Greenland Deal

EU, Mercosur: European Parliament Refers EU-Mercosur Trade Deal to EU Court of Justice

Mauritius: Government Rebuffs Trump's Criticism of Chagos Islands Deal With U.K.

China, U.K.: Governments Set Up Cyber Dialogue

France: Government To Push Through 2026 Budget Without Vote

France: PM Lecornu Suspends 2026 Budget Debate, Weighs Constitutional Options

Denmark, U.S., Greenland: Talks Inconclusive as European Allies Build Limited Troop Presence

EU, Ukraine: Brussels Advances Ukraine Support Package Focused on Military Procurement From EU

Forecasts

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