Media

Germany

Podcasts

Politics

Will Germany's ''fire-wall'' against the far-right hold?

Essential Geopolitics: Germany's Pivotal Upcoming Election

Global Elections

Assessments

United States

Syria

Turkey

Fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stand atop a humvee in Syria's northeastern Hasakah province during a joint military exercise with the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State on Sept. 7, 2022.

Military & Security

The threat of a Turkish offensive and decreasing U.S. aid will increasingly pressure the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces to reach a deal with Syria's new government. 

The Uncertain Future of U.S.-Backed Kurds in Syria

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Ethiopia

Kenya

Rwanda

Israel

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Ukraine

Russia

Sri Lanka

Damage on Feb. 13 in the Jabaliya refugee camp in northern Gaza.

Economics

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Mideast Ceasefires and Arab Gaza Proposals, the AU Summit

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

A truck crosses the Ambassador Bridge from Windsor, Ontario, to Detroit, Michigan, on Jan. 31, 2025. 

In addition to potentially triggering painful retaliatory tariffs from top U.S. trade partners, the tariffs could upend U.S. supply chains as domestic manufacturers struggle to boost production.

The Impact of Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs

Europe

The OECD logo is seen at the organization's headquarters in Paris, France, on Dec. 5, 2024.

Trump's move to exit the deal and investigate other countries' alleged discriminatory tax policies could result in the U.S. imposing retaliatory trade and tax measures on foreign companies and individuals.

The Impact of Trump's Withdrawal From the OECD Global Tax Deal

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Supporters of Yemen's Houthi movement brandish weapons and chant slogans as they take part in a protest staged in solidarity with the Palestinian people in Gaza on Jan. 17, 2025, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

The Houthis' intervention in the Israel-Hamas war has bolstered their military capabilities and domestic influence, which could embolden them to launch renewed offensives in southern Yemen.

What Will Yemen's Houthis Do With Their New-Found Strength?

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Feb. 13, 2025

Snapshots

Romania

People wave Romanian flags and hold portraits of far-right presidential candidate Calin Georgescu during a protest in front of Romania's Constitutional Court in Bucharest on Jan. 10, 2025. 

The crisis is raising the risk of a far-right president taking office that would disrupt foreign policy and, less likely, a far-right prime minister that would strain EU relations and jeopardize crucial funds from the bloc.

Romania's Deepening Political Crisis Risks Empowering the Far-Right

France

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou (center) addresses the National Assembly in Paris, France, on Feb. 5, 2025, ahead of a vote on a no-confidence motion against him. 

The approval of a budget for 2025 averts an immediate political crisis and offers short-term relief to markets, yet France's politics are still unstable and its medium-term fiscal policy direction remains uncertain.

France Passes Its 2025 Budget, but Political and Economic Challenges Persist

Angola

Burundi

Uganda

An M23 fighter stands in the foreground as detained Congolese soldiers are loaded onto trucks on Jan. 30, 2025, in Goma, Democratic Republic of Congo. 

Unless the Congolese government agrees to enter direct talks, Rwanda-backed rebels will likely resume their advance toward the city of Bukavu, whose fall would expose Congo to mounting instability, including nationwide unrest and a potential military coup.

Fighting in Eastern Congo Reaches a Crossroads as Rebels Press Southward

Campaign posters featuring various German parties are pictured in Kastel, western Germany, on Jan. 22, 2025, ahead of parliamentary elections.

A two-party coalition could lead to more streamlined decision-making in Berlin, while a three-party coalition may lead to instability, prolonging policy uncertainty both domestically and within the EU.

Germany's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Latest

China

United Kingdom

The U.K. flag is flown near the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., to honor the passing of Queen Elizabeth II, on Sept. 9, 2022.

While the U.K. will likely avoid major U.S. tariffs, concessions to Trump could undermine London's push to ''reset'' ties with the EU and expand economic engagement with China.

Trump's Tariff Threats Will Complicate the U.K.'s Trade Balancing Act

(Left to right) U.S., Saudi and Russian officials attend a meeting in Riyadh on Feb. 18, 2025.

While the talks open the door to a ceasefire, the exclusion of Ukraine and its European partners creates the risk of a deal that is not enforced and fails to end the fighting.

What To Expect From U.S.-Russia Talks on Ukraine

Stacked shipping containers are seen at Yantian Port in Shenzhen, China, on Dec. 1, 2024. 

While a resolution on stemming flows of Chinese fentanyl to the U.S. market is possible, a comprehensive trade deal is still unlikely due to the wide scope of U.S. grievances and China's reluctance to concede on sensitive issues.

New U.S. Tariffs on China May Be Negotiable, but a Broader Trade Deal Remains Unlikely

U.S.-China Relations

The U.S. and EU flags are seen next to each other.

If Trump makes good on his threat, the EU will impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods while simultaneously pursuing talks with the White House to avoid a lengthy and economically costly trade war.

Gauging the EU's Response to Potential U.S. Tariffs

The Bank of England is seen in London, the United Kingdom, on Sept. 19, 2024.

If market pressures persist, the Labour government may have to impose spending cuts or tax hikes that would derail its economic initiatives and make it all the more unpopular.

Market Instability Tests the U.K. Government's Fiscal Strategy

Canada

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attends a news conference on March 7, 2019 in Ottawa, Canada. 

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation aims to revitalize the Liberal Party but is unlikely to prevent a Conservative electoral victory amid his declining popularity and party turmoil.

Canada's Trudeau Bows Out, Paving Way for Early Election

Moldova

This picture taken on Sept. 2, 2014, shows equipment from the border release and compressor station of the gas pipeline from Ukraine in Veke Kapusany, eastern Slovakia. 

Energy

Russia is hoping to weaken Moldova's pro-European government by inducing a destabilizing energy crisis in the winter. But if this plan fails, it could further undermine Russian influence in the country.

To Keep Its Hold on Moldova, Russia Gambles on a Gas Cut-Off

Brazil

The entrance of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange is seen in downtown Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Dec. 17, 2024.

Although the government will likely announce more spending cuts, they are unlikely to eliminate investor skepticism, portending further macroeconomic instability.

How Will Brazil's Financial Crisis Evolve in 2025?

Columns

On Geopolitics

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Crowds of Palestinians gather to receive food outside a U.N. aid distribution center in the Gazan city of Deir al-Balah on Nov. 2, 2024.

The displacement of any Palestinians from the Gaza Strip will further erode post-World War II norms against population transfers, laying the groundwork for future global conflicts.

Trump's Gaza Plan Risks Further Eroding Global Constraints on Population Removals

Syria’s de-facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa addresses a crowd at a mosque in Damascus on Dec. 8, 2024.

While Syrians will drive their country's destiny, external influence from regional and global powers could determine what kind of government replaces the deposed Assad regime.

Syria's Future: Islamist Republic, Turkish Client State, or Jihadist Stronghold?

Asia-Pacific

Australia

Indonesia

Japan

Malaysia

Philippines

South Korea

Taiwan

Vietnam

India

U.S. President Joe Biden gestures to reporters after landing on the South Lawn of the White House on Sept. 22, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Trump's more aggressive and transactional approach could deliver quick wins for the U.S.'s position in the region, though it could also strain ties with key partners. 

Trump's Asia-Pacific Approach Will Test Biden's Gains

A compressor gas station of the Yamal–Europe pipeline is seen on Feb. 19, 2022, in Wloclawek, Poland. 

The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal underscores Europe's ongoing efforts to sever its reliance on Russian resources, with far-reaching implications for energy markets and geopolitics in the region and beyond. 

The End of Russian Gas via Ukraine Cements Europe's New Energy Landscape

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Eurasia

South Asia

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags.

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast

U.S.-Iran Relations

Environment, Science & Technology

Statements made by Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk, offer insight into how his next administration will approach the regulation (or lack thereof) of AI, online content, data and monopolistic business practices.

Previewing Trump's Tech Policies

Iran

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

South Korean marines participate in joint exercises with U.S. forces Sept. 2 in Pohang, South Korea. Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of People in Conflict

At a press conference, U.S. President Donald Trump said he was more confident in achieving a settlement of the Russia-Ukraine war after the Feb. 18 talks between Russian and U.S. delegations in Saudi Arabia, adding that he would probably meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin around the end of February, Reuters reported on Feb. 19. 

U.S., Russia, Ukraine: Trump Criticizes Zelensky Ahead of Putin Summit

Qatar

Following Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani's Feb. 17-18 visit to India, the two countries released a joint statement in which Qatar pledged to invest $10 billion across a range of Indian sectors, including infrastructure, technology and manufacturing, Reuters reported on Feb. 18.

India, Qatar: Qatar Pledges to Invest $10B in India

El Salvador

Mexico

Venezuela

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a notice designating eight transnational criminal groups as foreign terrorist organizations, Reuters reported on Feb. 19. 

U.S., Latin America: U.S. Declares Eight Transnational Criminal Groups Foreign Terrorist Organizations

Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Feb. 17 pledged to raise various limits on school tuition assistance in response to questions from Seiji Maehara, the co-head of the conservative opposition Japan Innovation Party, at a House of Representatives Budget Committee meeting, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported on Feb. 19.

Japan: Ishiba Closes in on Deal To Pass Budget, but at Long-Term Cost 

Australian mining magnate and billionaire Clive Palmer launched a new U.S. President Donald Trump-inspired right-wing populist party to compete in the 2025 election dubbed the Trumpet of Patriots Party, the Australian Broadcasting Corp. reported on Feb. 19. 

Australia: Mining Magnate Launches Potential Spoiler, Trump-Inspired Party Before Elections

Brazil's attorney general charged former President Jair Bolsonaro and 33 allies, including high-ranking military officials, with forming an armed criminal organization that plotted a coup following the 2022 presidential election, g1 reported on Feb. 18.

Brazil: Bolsonaro Likely To Face Arrest Over Coming Year, but Far Right Will Remain Strong

Chad

The government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo requested military support from Chad in its fight against the Alliance for the Congo River, or AFC, a politico-military alliance led by the Rwandan-backed M23, Radio France Internationale reported on Feb. 19. 

Congo: Kinshasa Requests Military Support From Chad as AFC/M23 Sustains Gains in South Kivu

Ambassadors from the European Union's 27 member states unanimously approved the bloc's 16th sanctions package against Russia since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Politico reported on Feb. 19.

Europe, Russia, Ukraine: EU Approves New Sanctions Against Russia, Prepares Military Aid for Ukraine

Science & Technology

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

On Security

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.

For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2

The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, agreed to integrate with the Syrian army under the Ministry of Defense, and the government will establish joint committees with representation from the Syrian Kurds to ensure all sides enforce the agreement, The New Arab reported on Feb. 18, citing a statement from the commander of the SDF’s northern brigade.

Syria: SDF To Integrate Into Syrian Army

U.S. President Donald Trump said he would likely place a tariff of around 25% on automobile, semiconductor and pharmaceutical drug imports, with an announcement potentially coming as soon as April 2, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 18.

U.S.: Trump Threatens 25% Tariffs on Cars, Pharmaceuticals, Chips as Early as April 2

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

Decade Forecast: 2025-2035

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Russia, Ukraine: Trump Criticizes Zelensky Ahead of Putin Summit

India, Qatar: Qatar Pledges to Invest $10B in India

U.S., Latin America: U.S. Declares Eight Transnational Criminal Groups Foreign Terrorist Organizations

Japan: Ishiba Closes in on Deal To Pass Budget, but at Long-Term Cost

Australia: Mining Magnate Launches Potential Spoiler, Trump-Inspired Party Before Elections

Brazil: Bolsonaro Likely To Face Arrest Over Coming Year, but Far Right Will Remain Strong

Congo: Kinshasa Requests Military Support From Chad as AFC/M23 Sustains Gains in South Kivu

Europe, Russia, Ukraine: EU Approves New Sanctions Against Russia, Prepares Military Aid for Ukraine

Syria: SDF To Integrate Into Syrian Army

U.S.: Trump Threatens 25% Tariffs on Cars, Pharmaceuticals, Chips as Early as April 2

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