Snapshots

Europe

Austria

Russia

A view of the Gas Connect Austria natural gas distribution hub stand at Baumgarten an der March, Austria, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Economics

Energy

Politics

A muted market reaction to disrupted gas supply in Austria signals Europe's preparedness for a likely cut-off of Russian gas in the coming months.

Markets Shrug Off Russia's Gas Cut-Off to Austria

United States

France

United Kingdom

Ukraine

Debris lies in the courtyard of a damaged house following a missile attack at an undisclosed location in Ukraine's Odesa region on Nov. 17, 2024.

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia with ATACMS missiles signals a policy shift but is unlikely to change the war's trajectory.

U.S. Greenlights Limited Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia with Long-Range Missiles

Assessments

Senegal

Brazil

Israel

A G-20 summit banner on Nov. 12 at City Hall in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will host G-20 leaders Nov. 18-19 in Rio de Janeiro, where he will try to secure support for three main proposals.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Brazil Hosts the G-20, Constitutional Crisis Looms in Israel

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Iran

Bangladesh

India

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump (R) and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L) arrive for a joint press conference at Hyderabad House in New Delhi, India, on Feb. 25, 2020.

Environment, Science & Technology

While U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will maintain many of the outgoing Biden administration's overarching policies toward South Asia, bilateral relationships will grow increasingly transactional.

What Trump's Second Term Means for South Asia

The Iranian capital of Tehran. An Israeli attack on a previously undisclosed active Iranian nuclear weapons research facility demonstrates that Iran is trying to reduce the timeline to develop nuclear weapons.

The Israeli attack on a previously undisclosed active Iranian nuclear weapons research facility demonstrates that Iran is trying to reduce the timeline to develop nuclear weapons.

Israel's October Strike on an Iranian Nuclear Facility Indicates More Strikes Ahead

U.S.-Iran Relations

Media

Mozambique

Podcasts

Are there viable paths to a peaceful resolution?

Essential Geopolitics: Evolution of the Post-Election Violence in Mozambique

Palestinian Territories

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan speaks to journalists in Riyadh before the first meeting of Saudi Arabia's new global alliance to push for Palestinian statehood on Oct. 30, 2024. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Protracted regional conflicts risk undermining the kingdom's efforts to diversify its oil-reliant economy, normalize ties with Israel, and balance between Iran and its opponents. 

Saudi Arabia's Regional Strategy, Part 1: Balancing Between Iran and Its Rivals

Germany

What are the long-term implications for German politics?

Essential Geopolitics: Germany's Government Collapse

Ghana

Both main political parties have deployed inflammatory rhetoric that has heightened political polarization, raising risks of political violence ahead of, and especially on and after, election day.

2024 Elections: Ghana 

Global Elections

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 14, 2024

Columns

On Geopolitics

An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel. 

In gauging how the conflict will evolve, much will depend on the level of Trump's support for Israel and hostility toward Iran.

How the Israel-Iran Conflict May Play Out With a Trump Presidency

Latest

Romania

Opinion polls ahead of Romania's parliamentary elections scheduled for Dec. 1 indicate four main possible coalition government scenarios.

2024 Elections: Romania

South Korea

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol attends the third session of the G-20 Leaders' Meeting in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Nov. 19, 2024.

Multiple political disputes could see Yoon start stretching the limits of his power as his term winds down, pushing anti-union activity and arms exports.

In South Korea, Political Clashes Limit the President's Room To Maneuver

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba speaks during a press conference in Tokyo on Nov. 11, 2024.

While Ishiba is unlikely to leave office anytime soon, Japan's new minority government will impede domestic policymaking, which could fray U.S.-Japan ties if defense spending reforms are delayed.

Japan's PM Ishiba Survives To Struggle Another Day

The U.S. and EU flags.

Cyber

Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency is set to disrupt trans-Atlantic relations, likely escalating trade tensions, weakening already limited cooperation on climate and tech policy, and straining EU unity on defense and support for Ukraine. 

What Trump's Return to Office Means for the European Union

Uruguay

People wave Uruguayan flags after the first results of the presidential and legislative elections were announced, at Plaza Varela Square in Montevideo on Oct. 27, 2024. 

The outcome will likely have the greatest impact on Uruguay's relations with the regional trade bloc Mercosur and China, as this is where the two candidates' policies diverge most.

Previewing Uruguay's Presidential Run-Off

Georgia

Opposition supporters rally to protest results from the parliamentary elections Oct. 28 outside Parliament in Tbilisi, Georgia.

Georgian Dream's claimed victory in the parliamentary election will commence a prolonged protest movement and potential political crisis.

Georgia's Protest Movement Faces an Uphill Battle After Parliamentary Elections

Iraq

Syria

A general view of Tehran after several explosions amid an Israeli attack were heard there Oct. 26, 2024.

Israel's long-awaited response to Iran's Oct. 1 strike proves restrained, limiting the risk of all-out war.

Israel's Measured Attack on Iran Calibrated to Avoid a Response

On Security

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.

For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2

A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.

Reports that Trump's transition team may propose establishing an outside board to evaluate senior military officers raise serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces in the years ahead.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 1

North Korea

On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.

Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory

China

3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word "declassified" printed on a document.

The outgoing U.S. Biden administration's liberal use of "intelligence diplomacy" as a tool of foreign policy raises questions about how the incoming Trump administration will take up the torch.

Declassified: The Future of U.S. 'Intelligence Diplomacy'

People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of North Korea's artillery firing, at a railway station in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2024.

With both sides threatening overwhelming retaliation and having greater capabilities to make good on those threats, provocations along the North-South border now carry a greater risk of erupting into military clashes.

The Rising Risk of Military Clashes on the Korean Peninsula

With both nations looking inward in 2025, the European Union will be deprived of its central leadership, leaving it without clear strategic direction or decisive policymaking.

French and German Struggles Leave the EU Adrift

Americas

A photo taken on June 24, 2024, shows the aftermath of a fire at a manufacturing facility in Berlin, Germany, that was allegedly linked to Russia.

Intelligence agencies are increasingly using third parties to do their dirty work abroad, raising the risk of miscalculations with potentially violent consequences.

The Saboteur's Dilemma: The Risk of Using Proxies for Espionage

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and China's President Xi Jinping signed 37 bilateral cooperation agreements in areas ranging from trade and investments, finance, technology and mining to communications, sustainable development, tourism, sports, health and culture, Reuters reported on Nov. 20.

Brazil: Lula Skips BRI Membership but Announces 37 Cooperation Agreements With China

Voting concluded for the second and final phase of the mineral-rich Jharkhand legislative assembly elections, as well as for the single-phase assembly elections in Maharashtra, India’s western industrial hub, India Today reported on Nov. 20.

India: Voting Concludes in Jharkhand's and Maharashtra's State Assembly Elections

Leaders of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the opposition Democratic Party for the People released a statement on Nov. 20 pledging to consider raising the minimum annual threshold for income tax to 1.03 million yen ($6,600), cutting gasoline taxes, and "increas[ing] the take-home pay" in an upcoming economic support package.

Japan: Ruling Party Accepts Opposition Economic and Political Demands

Australia

Kiribati

Solomon Islands

China reclaimed its status as the second-largest bilateral donor to Pacific island countries (after Australia) following a pandemic lull, supplanting the United States with a surge in official development financing, loans and grants, according to findings published in a Lowy Institute report on Nov. 19.

China, Pacific Islands: Beijing Supplants U.S. as Second-Largest Bilateral Donor

Bulgaria

Netherlands

Austria is set to lift its veto on Romania's and Bulgaria's full accession to Europe's free-passport Schengen area during a meeting of interior ministers from Austria, Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary in Budapest on Nov. 22, the Financial Times reported on Nov. 19, citing sources close to negotiations.

Romania, Bulgaria: Austria To Lift Veto on Romania's and Bulgaria's Full Schengen Membership

Rwanda

The European Council has allocated an additional 20 million euros to support the Rwanda Defence Force's mission in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province, aimed at countering an Islamic State-linked insurgency in the region, Radio French International reported Nov. 19.

Rwanda, Mozambique: EU Allocates More Funding to Rwandan Forces in Mozambique

Spokesperson for the opposition National Democratic Congress Sammy Gyamfi accused outgoing President Nana Akufo-Addo of tasking Brig. Gen. Michael Opoku with rigging the country's upcoming Dec. 7 general election in favor of the ruling New Patriotic Party, Modern Ghana reported on Nov. 19.

Ghana: Opposition Accuses President of Tasking Senior Army General With Rigging Upcoming Election

A U.S.-Israel panel will discuss civilian harm during the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza in early December, AP reported on Nov. 19.

U.S., Israel: U.S.-Israel Panel on Civilian Harm To Convene in December

Vladimir Putin is open to peace talks in Ukraine mediated by Donald Trump, provided they exclude significant Russian territorial concessions and require Kyiv to abandon NATO aspirations in favor of neutrality, Reuters reported Nov. 20, citing five sources close to the Kremlin. 

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Sources Say Putin to Demand Limits on Ukrainian Security 

Science & Technology

Argentina

Chile

Colombia

Cuba

El Salvador

Guatemala

Honduras

Mexico

Nicaragua

Venezuela

U.S. border patrol officials drive near the wall along the Mexican border in Sasabe, Arizona, on Dec. 8, 2023. 

The fallout from Trump's pledged tariffs and mass deportations could worsen living conditions in countries like Mexico, though countries with like-minded leaders, like Argentina, may fare better.

What Trump's Focus on Immigration, Trade and Ideology Means for Latin America

South Sudan

Chad

Sudan

Sudanese army soldiers patrol an area in Khartoum on Nov. 3, 2024.

The warring sides' deep distrust and their external backers' competing interests portend a protracted conflict that may expand into South Sudan and Chad, and heighten jihadist activity.

The Security Implications of Sudan's Ongoing Civil War

App icons of social media platforms Twitter, Mastodon, Discord, Facebook, Reddit, Parler and Truth Social, are seen on an iPhone. 

As mis- and disinformation proliferate online, government-led content moderation efforts threaten to do more harm than good.

Can Europe Solve the Puzzle of Content Moderation?

Lebanon

Yemen

An Israeli tank Aug. 7, 2024, in southern Israel along the border with the Gaza Strip. Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year. 

Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year.

Will War in the Middle East Last Another Year?

China's Ministry of National Defense announced on Nov. 19 that it will send troops from the Western Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army to participate in "Warrior-VIII" joint counterterrorism exercises alongside Pakistani troops in Pakistan.

China, Pakistan: Joint Counterterrorism Exercises To Begin Amid Uptick in Militant Attacks

Finland

Sweden

Turkey

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Brazil: Lula Skips BRI Membership but Announces 37 Cooperation Agreements With China

India: Voting Concludes in Jharkhand's and Maharashtra's State Assembly Elections

Japan: Ruling Party Accepts Opposition Economic and Political Demands

China, Pacific Islands: Beijing Supplants U.S. as Second-Largest Bilateral Donor

Romania, Bulgaria: Austria To Lift Veto on Romania's and Bulgaria's Full Schengen Membership

Rwanda, Mozambique: EU Allocates More Funding to Rwandan Forces in Mozambique

Ghana: Opposition Accuses President of Tasking Senior Army General With Rigging Upcoming Election

U.S., Israel: U.S.-Israel Panel on Civilian Harm To Convene in December

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Sources Say Putin to Demand Limits on Ukrainian Security

China, Pakistan: Joint Counterterrorism Exercises To Begin Amid Uptick in Militant Attacks

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