Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 23, 2025

Snapshots

Bangladesh

Representatives of various Bangladeshi political parties present the July National Charter at the South Plaza of the National Parliament in Dhaka on Oct. 17, 2025. 

Military & Security

Politics

The proposed reforms underscore efforts by some of Bangladesh's main political forces to curb the concentration of power, strengthen democratic institutions and ensure greater accountability and transparency.

Uncertainty Over Bangladesh Charter Implementation Will Sustain Risks of Unrest

Australia

China

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (left) and U.S. President Donald Trump speak to reporters during a bilateral meeting in the Cabinet Room of the White House on Oct. 20, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Trump and Albanese agreed to tighten defense and supply chain integration as a way to reduce their countries' reliance on China, but industrial bottlenecks mean implementation will be slow.

U.S.-Australia Leadership Summit Yields Critical Minerals Pact, AUKUS Reaffirmation

Japan

South Korea

Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi speaks during a press conference at the prime minister's office in Tokyo on Oct. 21, 2025.

Economics

Sanae Takaichi's appointment as prime minister will reduce short-term political instability in Japan and strengthen U.S. ties, but her conservative government will struggle to recover domestic support and could alienate neighboring countries.

New Premier Takaichi a Quick Fix for Japan's Long-Term Political Problems

Tanzania

Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party reacts on stage during a rally in Dar es Salaam on Aug. 28, 2025, to officially launch the CCM's campaign ahead of the Tanzanian general election. 

Energy

Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan is highly likely to be reelected in the Oct. 29 ballot, which is unlikely to turn violent but could portend wider governance challenges in the medium term.

Previewing Tanzania's General Elections

Global Elections

Venezuela

A poster displaying a photo of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is seen as members of the Bolivarian Armed Forces take part in a military exercise in Caracas on Sept. 20, 2025. 

The U.S. will most likely conduct kinetic attacks on cartel sites in Venezuela over the next three to six months. Other scenarios, ranging from a negotiated settlement to a decapitation strike on Maduro, are comparatively less likely.

U.S. Confrontation With Venezuela: Potential Scenarios

Iran

Syria

Turkey

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syria's interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, hold a meeting at the Grand Kremlin Palace in Moscow on Oct.15, 2025. 

Syria's outreach to Russia could lead to diversified economic and security ties, help de-escalate tensions between Russia and Turkey, and eventually facilitate small steps toward Syria's rapprochement with Iran.

Syria-Russia Reapproachment Reinforces Damascus's Non-Confrontationalism

Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (L) attends a lunch meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump (R) at the White House on Oct. 17, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Recent statements by U.S. President Donald Trump suggest a significant U.S. pivot toward a negotiated settlement in Ukraine that prioritizes freezing the conflict and may involve territorial concessions favorable to Moscow.

Trump Signals Shift Toward Russian Position on Ukraine Ahead of Putin Meeting

Israel

Palestinian Territories

U.S. President Donald Trump (R) and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Aug. 15, 2025, at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska. Delegations from the United States and Russia, including U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov, respectively, will meet this week to resume conversations about their countries' bilateral relationship and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. and Russian Delegations Meet, a Still-Fragile Hamas-Israel Ceasefire 

Media

Podcasts

On Oct. 4, conservative candidate and former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi won the leadership election of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, clearing the way for her to become Japan's next prime minister after a Diet vote tentatively scheduled for mid-October.

Essential Geopolitics: Who Will Be Japan's Next Prime Minister?

Chinese President Xi Jinping, center, and other senior government members and deputies attend the second plenary session of the National People's Congress at the Great Hall of the People on March 8, 2025, in Beijing, China.

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Trade

The key political meeting will fill vacant Party seats and update economic and security goals, offering insights into China's policy priorities and the trajectory of Xi's political purges for the next five years. 

What To Watch for During China's Fourth Plenum

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Latest

Netherlands

A photograph taken on Oct. 10, 2025, shows Dutch election posters ahead of the Netherlands' Oct. 29 elections. 

Political fragmentation points toward complex negotiations and an ideologically unstable coalition, most likely led by either centrists or the far right.

Netherlands Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa (right) meets with U.S. envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, at the presidential palace in Damascus on July 9, 2025. 

The U.S. will leverage permanent sanctions relief to pressure Syria to finalize a security pact with Israel, but the Kurds will resist integrating with President Ahmad al-Sharaa's government. 

U.S. Engagement With Syria Will Promote Stability, but Kurdish Integration Will Continue To Lag

Argentina

Argentina's flag flutters at the Congress.

A weak result for the government is likely to trigger a significant peso devaluation and heightened political instability, effectively stalling the administration's pro-business legislative agenda.


The Stakes for Javier Milei in Argentina's Midterm Elections

Europe

The Geopolitics of Trade

The recalibration of the European Union's sustainability framework will ease near-term compliance burdens and costs for businesses but preserve long-term uncertainty.

The Geopolitics of Trade: EU Steps Back From Ambitious Environmental Policies

Canada

India

A digital illustration of the Indian and Canadian flags.

India and Canada's efforts to improve relations could see them resume trade talks after a two-year hiatus. But lingering mistrust, particularly over Sikh separatist activity in Canada, may hinder deeper progress.

India and Canada's Diplomatic Reset: Opportunities and Challenges

Madagascar

Protesters face police from a distance near burning barricades in Antananarivo, Madagascar, on Oct. 9, 2025. 

President Andry Rajoelina's removal on the back of widespread, youth-led protests will likely deescalate tensions in Madagascar in the next few weeks, but it could inspire similar protest movements elsewhere in Africa and potentially beyond.

Africa Sees Its First Gen Z-Driven Coup in Madagascar

North Korea

Vietnam

Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam (left) and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un participate in a ceremony at the Pyongyang Sports Palace on Oct. 9, 2025, during Lam's three-day official visit to North Korea.

To Lam's visit injects fresh diplomatic energy into the long-stalled relationship with North Korea and fits into Pyongyang's gradual reemergence as an active player in regional diplomacy.

Vietnam's Lam Extends Diplomatic Balancing Act With Rare North Korea Visit

Bolivia

Supporters of Bolivia's presidential candidate for the Christian Democratic Party (PDC), Rodrigo Paz, listen to him speak during a campaign rally in El Alto, Bolivia, on Sept. 30, 2025. 

With two right-wing candidates facing off in the Oct. 19 runoff, Bolivia is set for a significant policy shift toward austerity at home and a pro-Western foreign policy.

Bolivia Set for Swing to Right in Presidential Runoff Vote

Peru

Then-Peruvian President Dina Boluarte arrives to deliver her address to the nation on Peru's Independence Day at the National Congress in Lima on July 28, 2025.

The interim government will struggle to quickly reduce crime levels and pass major structural reforms, while the upcoming presidential election will fuel policy uncertainty due to the crowded field of candidates.

Boluarte's Impeachment Unlikely To Improve Peru's Political and Security Climate

Egypt

Qatar

People react at Hostage Square in Tel Aviv on Oct. 9, 2025, following news of a new Gaza ceasefire deal.

Violence in Gaza will almost certainly decrease as both Israel and Hamas are pressured to comply with the first phase of the ceasefire, keeping the truce intact in the coming days and possibly weeks.

After Two Years of War, a Permanent Gaza Ceasefire?

Columns

On Geopolitics

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

Nepal

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

On Security

An aerial view of the IAD71 Amazon Web Services data center is seen on July 17, 2024, in Ashburn, Virginia. 

Social Issues

AI's displacement of workers, the environmental impact of data centers and fears of pervasive surveillance are creating a potent mix of grievances likely to fuel violent extremism against targets associated with the technology.

The Coming Violent Backlash Against AI

The crime scene where political activist Charlie Kirk was shot and killed Sept. 11 at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Political violence in the United States and other Western countries is becoming harder to define. 

Political Instability & Social Unrest

While ideologically amorphous violence is deeply troubling, it fits into the overall wave of political violence in which the United States finds itself -- and the overall trajectory of more violence likely for the foreseeable future.

The Charlie Kirk Assassination Highlights the Rise of Political Violence Without a Clear Ideology 

Iraq

Jordan

Lebanon

Morocco

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sept. 7 in Brasilia, Brazil. Lula's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics are leaving him struggling to resonate with voters.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics is making it difficult for him to resonate with voters.

Lula's Old Playbook Meets a New Political Reality

Police tape hangs in front of Utah Valley University following the fatal shooting of political activist Charlie Kirk during an event at the campus Sept. 12, 2025 in Orem, Utah. The period between now and whenever the current wave of political violence ebbs is likely to be volatile, punctuated by further attacks, domestic political instability and the erosion of U.S. global influence.

War, Insurgency & Terrorism

The period between now and whenever the current wave of political violence ebbs is likely to be volatile, punctuated by further attacks, domestic political instability and the erosion of U.S. global influence.

Charlie Kirk's Assassination: The Latest Chapter in America's Long History of Political Violence

The United States and the European Union imposed sweeping new sanctions on Russia's energy sector, targeting its two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, and banning Russian liquefied natural gas imports to Europe by 2027, Reuters reported on Oct. 23. 

U.S., EU, Russia: New Energy Sanctions Tighten Pressure on Moscow but Highlight the Limits of Economic Warfare

Colombia

Dominican Republic

Ecuador

Haiti

Mexico

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that the U.S. military struck two alleged drug vessels in the eastern Pacific Ocean on Oct. 21 and 22, killing several alleged drug smugglers, Reuters reported on Oct. 22.

U.S., Latin America: U.S. Military Strikes Against Drug Traffickers Expand to Pacific Ocean

At China's fourth plenum from Oct. 20-23, Beijing appointed Central Military Commission (CMC) member Zhang Shengmin as the new CMC vice chair, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 23.

China: Party Frames Purged Military Generals as Challengers of Top Leaders

Haitian electoral council president Jacques Desrosiers said on Oct. 22 that Haiti will not be able to hold a general election before the end of the transitional presidential council's mandate on Feb. 7, 2026, Reuters reported the same day.

Haiti: Government Confirms Elections Will Not Occur Before February Deadline

A communique summarizing the proceedings of China's Oct. 20-23 fourth plenum pledged to "seek progress while maintaining stability," expand domestic demand, stabilize employment and uphold manufacturing as the foundational "real economy."

China: Plenum Charts Steady Economic Plan, Trade Deterrence, Internal Security

Mali

Malian junta leader Gen. Assimi Goita dismissed several senior military officers for underperformance amid an economic blockade imposed by al Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), which has caused a severe fuel shortage, Jeune Afrique reported on Oct. 23.

Mali: Worsening Jihadist Insurgency Exposes Divisions in Junta, Leading to Dismissal of Senior Officers

Indonesia

The Indonesian military has seized roughly 3.7 million hectares of private palm oil plantations and around 30% of national acreage, transferring nearly half to the new state-run agency Agrinas Palma Nusantara, Reuters reported on Oct. 23.

Indonesia: Militarization Deepens With Palm Oil Plantation Seizures

Cambodia

Thailand

Thailand and Cambodia will sign a joint declaration to de-escalate their border dispute on Oct. 25 at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations' leaders' summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in the presence of U.S. President Donald Trump, the Thai Enquirer reported on Oct. 23.

Thailand, Cambodia: Bangkok, Phnom Penh To Sign 'Peace Declaration' at ASEAN Summit

Science & Technology

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

A portrait of former U.S. President Ronald Reagan is seen in the background as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on April 22, 2025.

U.S.-China Relations

In just seven months in office, the Trump administration has pursued a series of highly unconventional economic policies that, taken together, amount to the deepest government interventionism into the U.S. economy of any president since the Reagan era.

The Visible Hand: Trump's Interventionism Reshapes American Capitalism

The Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador, or CONAIE, announced an end to the general strike that resulted in several violent anti-government protests in recent weeks, El Universo reported on Oct. 22. 

Ecuador: Indigenous Association Calls Off Protests After Government Threats To Use Force

U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States would withdraw "all of its support" from Israel should it carry out annexations in the West Bank, saying he had given his word to Arab countries that he would oppose such action, Time Magazine reported on Oct. 23. 

U.S., Israel: Trump Threatens U.S. Support Over Annexation

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

Netherlands Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., EU, Russia: New Energy Sanctions Tighten Pressure on Moscow but Highlight the Limits of Economic Warfare

U.S., Latin America: U.S. Military Strikes Against Drug Traffickers Expand to Pacific Ocean

China: Party Frames Purged Military Generals as Challengers of Top Leaders

Haiti: Government Confirms Elections Will Not Occur Before February Deadline

China: Plenum Charts Steady Economic Plan, Trade Deterrence, Internal Security

Mali: Worsening Jihadist Insurgency Exposes Divisions in Junta, Leading to Dismissal of Senior Officers

Indonesia: Militarization Deepens With Palm Oil Plantation Seizures

Thailand, Cambodia: Bangkok, Phnom Penh To Sign 'Peace Declaration' at ASEAN Summit

Ecuador: Indigenous Association Calls Off Protests After Government Threats To Use Force

U.S., Israel: Trump Threatens U.S. Support Over Annexation

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support