Assessments

Brazil

United States

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

Japan

Vietnam

United Kingdom

Ukraine

Russia

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (L) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a joint press conference Feb. 16 at the prime minister's office in Jerusalem. Senior Israeli officials from the security and intelligence ministries will visit the United States to discuss Iran's nuclear program and Israeli border demarcation talks with Lebanon.

Global Trade

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The U.S. and Israel Coordinate on Iran, the U.K. Chancellor Seeks Fiscal Discipline

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Europe

Spain

Spanish soldiers sit at tables at a makeshift military base in Valencia, eastern Spain, on Nov. 12, 2024, following deadly floods in the region.

Economics

Domestic political constraints will impede Madrid's ability to expand its defense budget, which will expose it to U.S. retaliation and limit Spanish participation in any European deployment to Ukraine.

Despite Recent Pledges, Spain Will Struggle To Boost Military Spending

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: March 20, 2025

Media

Podcasts

How will these changes affect European countries?


Essential Geopolitics: The United States' Evolving Relationship With Russia

South Africa

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa arrives at a briefing at his African National Congress (ANC) party's headquarters in Johannesburg on May 13, 2024.

Energy

Social Issues

South Africa will struggle to meet Trump's demands for major foreign and domestic policy changes, which will risk exposing the country to disruptive U.S. economic retaliation, including entity-based sanctions.

Trump Turns Up the Heat on South Africa

Snapshots

Germany

Incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz addresses the Bundestag on March 18, 2025, before a vote on changes to the country's constitutional debt limits.

The historic reform will allow for increased investment and higher defense spending, which will help raise medium-term economic growth in both Germany and the euro area. 

The Economic Impact of Germany's Debt Brake Reform

Palestinian Territories

Smoke billows during Israeli strikes west of Gaza City on March 18, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

In the coming days and weeks, Israel will likely carry out phased escalations and de-escalations to pressure Hamas into releasing the remaining hostages, returning Gaza to war by effectively collapsing the January ceasefire.

Large-Scale Israeli Airstrikes Plunge Gaza Back Into an Open-Ended Conflict

Oman

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

A rally on Jan. 24 in Sanaa, the Houthi-controlled capital of Yemen. Should the United States attack Iranian ships and advisers supporting the Houthi rebel group, Houthi and Iranian retaliation would become likelier to extend beyond U.S. and Israeli targets to include regional oil and gas installations.

Should the United States also attack Iranian ships and advisers supporting the Yemeni rebel group, Houthi and Iranian retaliation would become likelier to extend beyond U.S. and Israeli targets to include regional oil and gas installations. 

U.S. Strikes on Houthis Risk Embroiling Iran and the Regional Energy Industry

U.N. Satellite Center cultural heritage analyst Michelle de Gruchy gestures next to a map of Beirut, Lebanon, during a press conference in Geneva, Switzerland, on monitoring damage to cultural heritage in Lebanon and Gaza on Nov. 25, 2024.

While Lebanon's renewed negotiations with the IMF may yield a draft agreement, a fragmented parliament will likely prevent Lebanon from implementing key economic reforms and unlocking significant aid.

Despite New IMF Negotiations, Lebanon's Economic Crisis Rages On

Columns

On Geopolitics

Canada

Mexico

China

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks from the Oval Office on March 7, 2025, after announcing that tariffs could be imposed on Canadian dairy and lumber products within days. 

The expanding scope of Trump's trade wars, coupled with the whiplash of tariffs being enacted and then suspended, begs the question: what is driving this strategy and what, if anything, will constrain it?

Trump's Emerging Trade Doctrine

U.S.-China Relations

Ethiopia

Reichstag in Berlin with flags.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Russia Contacts on a Ukraine Ceasefire, a Vote on Reforming Germany’s Debt Brake

Latest

Participants attend the annual Future Investment Initiative (FII) conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Oct. 29, 2024. 

The kingdom is increasingly likely to continue to scale back less viable megaprojects while focusing on successful reforms.

As the Finish Line Approaches, Saudi Arabia Dials Back Its Vision 2030 Ambitions

South Sudan

Sudan

Uganda

South Sudan's President Salva Kiir (right) waves as he arrives in Nairobi, Kenya, on May 9, 2024, for the launch of new peace talks with rebel groups.

Rising political tensions risk collapsing the peace deal that ended the country's last civil war, while escalating clashes in the north risk drawing in involvement from Sudan's warring parties.

South Sudan Hurtles Toward Another Civil War

Turkey

People wave Turkish national flags as they protest in Istanbul on March 20, 2025, following Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu's detention over a corruption probe.

The charismatic Istanbul mayor's detention will likely trigger protests and further undermine his party's ability to challenge Erdogan and the AKP in the 2028 presidential election.

In Turkey, Imamoglu's Arrest Dims the Opposition's Presidential Prospects

Cambodia

Thailand

The Ta Moan Thom temple is seen on the border between Thailand and Cambodia.

While full-scale military conflict is unlikely, the dispute risks spurring localized border clashes, as both Cambodia and Thailand maintain entrenched military positions with no clear legal resolution.

Thai-Cambodian Tensions Flare Over Disputed Temple, Raising Fears of Clashes

While a ceasefire appears increasingly likely, Russia will likely delay a deal to secure more concessions related to Western military support, a potential peacekeeping force in Ukraine, and Kyiv's NATO aspirations.

How Will Russia Respond to the U.S.-Proposed Ceasefire in Ukraine?

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Serbia

Milorad Dodik, leader of the most influential political party in the Bosnian-Serb dominated entity of Republika Srpska, on Oct. 27, 2022.

The arrest will test Bosnia's fragile institutional order amid rising regional and global instability, fueling concerns of a potential spillover of unrest across the Western Balkans.

The Arrest of a Serbian Official Puts Bosnian -- and Regional -- Stability to the Test

Argentina

The headquarters of Argentina's central bank is seen in Buenos Aires on Feb. 20, 2025.

A new IMF program would improve Argentina's short- and medium-term economic and financial outlook in the face of limited international financial market access and negative foreign exchange reserves.

Argentina's Milei Signs Decree To Clear the Way for a New IMF Deal

U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan and National Security Advisor Mosaad bin Mohammad al-Aiban, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, Ukrainian Head of Presidential Office Andriy Yermak and Ukrainian Minister of Defense Rustem Umerovto attend a meeting between the US and Ukraine hosted by the Saudis on March 11, 2025 in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

Ukraine has agreed to a U.S.-backed 30-day ceasefire with Russia, but its success depends on Moscow's acceptance and broader unresolved issues.

Temporary Truce in Sight? U.S. and Ukraine Push for 30-Day Ceasefire with Russia

Romania

Supporters of the far-right Romanian politician Calin Georgescu take part in an anti-government protest in Bucharest on March 1, 2025. 

Georgescu's disqualification will worsen Romania's increasingly polarized political climate, heightening the risk of violent protests and strengthening alternative far-right candidates in the May election rerun.

Romania's Political Crisis Worsens After Far-Right Candidate Barred From Presidential Rerun

A German flag flies above the Reichstag, the building that houses the Bundestag, on July 23, 2022, in Berlin. 

If approved, the constitutional reforms and unprecedented fiscal stimulus would unlock massive military spending and revitalize the German economy. 

German Parties Propose a Historic Overhaul of Spending, Defense Policies

A digital map illustration of Russia.

The White House believes that restoring ties with Moscow will help it negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine and, more importantly, undermine Russia-China relations in the long run. But numerous potential pitfalls mean this approach is unlikely to pay off.

The Rationale and Risks of Trump's Push to Reengage With Russia

A map of the United States from 1897. While a revisionist America could lead to a more stable world order, it would be much more likely to lead to greater uncertainty, volatility, and conflict.

While a revisionist America could lead to a more stable world order, it would be much more likely to lead to greater uncertainty, volatility, and conflict.

What a Revisionist U.S. Foreign Policy Could Mean for the World

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Crowds of Palestinians gather to receive food outside a U.N. aid distribution center in the Gazan city of Deir al-Balah on Nov. 2, 2024.

The displacement of any Palestinians from the Gaza Strip will further erode post-World War II norms against population transfers, laying the groundwork for future global conflicts.

Trump's Gaza Plan Risks Further Eroding Global Constraints on Population Removals

Syria

Syria’s de-facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa addresses a crowd at a mosque in Damascus on Dec. 8, 2024.

While Syrians will drive their country's destiny, external influence from regional and global powers could determine what kind of government replaces the deposed Assad regime.

Syria's Future: Islamist Republic, Turkish Client State, or Jihadist Stronghold?

Asia-Pacific

Australia

Indonesia

Malaysia

Philippines

South Korea

Taiwan

India

U.S. President Joe Biden gestures to reporters after landing on the South Lawn of the White House on Sept. 22, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Trump's more aggressive and transactional approach could deliver quick wins for the U.S.'s position in the region, though it could also strain ties with key partners. 

Trump's Asia-Pacific Approach Will Test Biden's Gains

A compressor gas station of the Yamal–Europe pipeline is seen on Feb. 19, 2022, in Wloclawek, Poland. 

The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal underscores Europe's ongoing efforts to sever its reliance on Russian resources, with far-reaching implications for energy markets and geopolitics in the region and beyond. 

The End of Russian Gas via Ukraine Cements Europe's New Energy Landscape

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Eurasia

South Asia

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags.

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast

Afghanistan

The Afghan Taliban's interior ministry spokesperson said the United States had withdrawn bounties on Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani and two other members of the Haqqani network, Abdul Aziz Haqqani and Yahya Haqqani, AP reported on March 23.

U.S., Afghanistan: Afghan Taliban Says U.S. Withdrew Bounties on Senior Figures

Russian and Ukrainian delegations held separate talks with a U.S. delegation in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, with talks between Russian and U.S. delegations lasting more than 12 hours and resulting in a joint statement that will be published on March 25, Reuters reported on March 24. 

U.S., Russia, Ukraine: U.S., Russian and Ukrainian Delegations Hold Talks in Riyadh

The net approval rating (approval minus disapproval) for Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's government dropped to -30, according to a 10-day moving average of Japanese media polls weighted by sample size, Observing Japan reported on March 24. 

Japan: Ishiba's Sinking Approval Ratings Raise Prospect of Resignation

Venezuela

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on social media the imposition of 25% tariffs on all imports from countries that purchase Venezuelan oil and gas, Reuters reported on March 24.

U.S., Venezuela: 'Secondary' Tariffs Escalate Washington's Sanctions Policy

Peru

Peru's Congress voted to remove Interior Minister Juan Jose Santivanez from office after deciding that he had failed to adequately tackle an ongoing wave of extortion and violent crime, Reuters reported on March 21.

Peru: Government To Face Unrest and Political Instability Risks Amid Growing Crime Wave

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka's President Anura Kumara Dissanayake announced that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Sri Lanka on April 5, the Economic Times reported on March 22. 

India, Sri Lanka: Modi To Visit Sri Lanka on April 5

Mozambique

Mozambique's President Daniel Chapo met with the country's main opposition leader Venancio Mondlane on March 23 to mend political relations following the contentious Oct. 9, 2024, elections, Club of Mozambique reported on March 24.

Mozambique: President Meets Main Opposition Leader To Reset Relations

Turkish authorities suspended Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu from his duties and formally arrested and imprisoned him on corruption charges the same day that the main opposition party, the Republican People's Party, or CHP, named Imamoglu as its presidential candidate ahead of Turkey's 2028 election, Al Jazeera reported on March 23.

Turkey: Imamoglu Imprisoned, Named CHP Presidential Candidate as Protests Persist

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Statements made by Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk, offer insight into how his next administration will approach the regulation (or lack thereof) of AI, online content, data and monopolistic business practices.

Previewing Trump's Tech Policies

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

Angola

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Kenya

Rwanda

Tanzania

Angola's presidency said it would relinquish the country's role as the chief mediator in the conflict between the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda and the Alliance for the Congo River, a coalition led by the Rwandan-backed M23, Reuters reported on March 24. 

Congo: Angola Relinquishes Role as Conflict Mediator, AFC/M23 Remains in Walikale  

The United States continued airstrikes against Yemen's Houthi rebels for the 10th consecutive day, targeting dozens of sites belonging to the group, NBC reported on March 24. 

U.S., Yemen: Widespread U.S. Airstrikes Continue, Targeting Houthi Leadership

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Thai-Cambodian Tensions Flare Over Disputed Temple, Raising Fears of Clashes

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Afghanistan: Afghan Taliban Says U.S. Withdrew Bounties on Senior Figures

U.S., Russia, Ukraine: U.S., Russian and Ukrainian Delegations Hold Talks in Riyadh

Japan: Ishiba's Sinking Approval Ratings Raise Prospect of Resignation

U.S., Venezuela: 'Secondary' Tariffs Escalate Washington's Sanctions Policy

Peru: Government To Face Unrest and Political Instability Risks Amid Growing Crime Wave

India, Sri Lanka: Modi To Visit Sri Lanka on April 5

Mozambique: President Meets Main Opposition Leader To Reset Relations

Turkey: Imamoglu Imprisoned, Named CHP Presidential Candidate as Protests Persist

Congo: Angola Relinquishes Role as Conflict Mediator, AFC/M23 Remains in Walikale

U.S., Yemen: Widespread U.S. Airstrikes Continue, Targeting Houthi Leadership

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