Assessments

United States

China

Azerbaijan

A sign for COP29 on Nov. 3, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. Negotiators at this year's U.N. Climate Change Conference will ultimately reach a new global climate finance deal, but progress on the global energy transition will not accelerate.

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Politics

Negotiators at this year's U.N. Climate Change Conference will ultimately reach a new global climate finance deal, but progress on the global energy transition will not accelerate significantly.

What to Watch for at This Year's 'Finance COP' in Azerbaijan

Media

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Podcasts

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

What is the significance of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar's killing, and what role did he play in the organization?

Essential Geopolitics: The Trajectory of the Israel-Hamas War

Mexico

National Action Party Sen. Miguel Angel Yunes Linares (L) addresses lawmakers in the legislature's upper house about the judicial reform proposed by the government in Congress in Mexico City, Mexico, on Sept. 10, 2024. 

Economics

Social Issues

A series of interventionist constitutional reforms is putting Mexico's private sector on edge, but global de-risking will likely continue to attract foreign investment in the long term.

Interventionist Constitutional Reforms Unlikely To Deter Foreign Investment in Mexico 

Iran

Iraq

Qatar

Moldova

The first day of early voting in the Nov. 5 U.S. election Oct. 21, 2024, in Stamford, Connecticut. U.S. voters will select a new president, 435 representatives, 34 senators, and any number of state and municipal officials Nov. 5.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: America Votes, Qatar's Constitutional Referendum

Global Elections

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Europe

A digital illustration of a 100 euro banknote.

Without a common deposit insurance scheme, the so-called sovereign-banking nexus renders the euro area more vulnerable than it needs to be.

The Risks of the Eurozone's Incomplete Financial Integration

Vietnam

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (R) and his Vietnamese counterpart Phan Van Gang, meet at the Pentagon in Washington D.C. on Sept. 9, 2024. 

Trump is more likely to impose tariffs to minimize the trade deficit, while Harris is more likely to call for supply chain decoupling from China -- either of which could strain U.S.-Vietnam ties.

What a Trump vs. Harris Presidency Would Mean for Vietnam

U.S.-China Relations

India

Indian soldiers walk along a road near the Zojila mountain pass that connects to Ladakh, bordering China, on Feb. 28, 2021. 

Cyber

While their recent efforts to ease bilateral tensions will probably reduce the risk of border clashes, deep-seated mistrust between the two strategic rivals will very likely limit the scope of any reconciliation. 

After a Tense Few Years, India and China Try To Turn Down the Heat

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 31, 2024

Columns

On Geopolitics

North Korea

South Korea

People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of North Korea's artillery firing, at a railway station in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2024.

With both sides threatening overwhelming retaliation and having greater capabilities to make good on those threats, provocations along the North-South border now carry a greater risk of erupting into military clashes.

The Rising Risk of Military Clashes on the Korean Peninsula

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Zambia

Workers move batches of copper sheets on July 6, 2016, in Mufulira, Zambia. Zambia's copper output will likely steadily increase by the late 2020s on the back of a more stable tax environment and a global rush for critical minerals, but the country faces an uphill battle to meet its 2032 copper production target.

Zambia's copper output will likely steadily increase by the late 2020s on the back of a more stable tax environment and a global rush for critical minerals, but the country faces an uphill battle to meet its 2032 copper production target.

Zambia Banks on the Green Rush for Copper 

A digital illustration shows a map of the United States.

The tight race and its perceived existential stakes portend further violent threats in the days leading up to and after the Nov. 5 election.

The U.S. Braces for a Turbulent – and Potentially Violent – End to the Election

Latest

Ukraine

Russia

Former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an election event in the early hours of Nov. 6, 2024.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Trump will place more tariffs on U.S. trade partners and reduce support for Ukraine, but he will largely maintain Biden's approach to the U.S. tech rivalry with China and the Middle East conflict.

Trump's Win Will Ripple Across the World

U.S.-Iran Relations

Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addresses Turkey's parliament on Oct. 1, 2024, in Ankara. 

Ankara's efforts could fail if the pro-Kurdish DEM Party makes extensive demands or if widespread PKK violence breaks out.

To Gain Support for Its Constitutional Reform, Turkey's Government Turns to the Kurds

Snapshots

Germany

France

The U.S. and EU flags.

Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency is set to disrupt trans-Atlantic relations, likely escalating trade tensions, weakening already limited cooperation on climate and tech policy, and straining EU unity on defense and support for Ukraine. 

What Trump's Return to Office Means for the European Union

Uruguay

People wave Uruguayan flags after the first results of the presidential and legislative elections were announced, at Plaza Varela Square in Montevideo on Oct. 27, 2024. 

The outcome will likely have the greatest impact on Uruguay's relations with the regional trade bloc Mercosur and China, as this is where the two candidates' policies diverge most.

Previewing Uruguay's Presidential Run-Off

Georgia

Opposition supporters rally to protest results from the parliamentary elections Oct. 28 outside Parliament in Tbilisi, Georgia.

Georgian Dream's claimed victory in the parliamentary election will commence a prolonged protest movement and potential political crisis.

Georgia's Protest Movement Faces an Uphill Battle After Parliamentary Elections

Syria

A general view of Tehran after several explosions amid an Israeli attack were heard there Oct. 26, 2024.

Israel's long-awaited response to Iran's Oct. 1 strike proves restrained, limiting the risk of all-out war.

Israel's Measured Attack on Iran Calibrated to Avoid a Response

Cameroon

Cameroonian President Paul Biya (left), and his wife Chantal Biya (left) watch a parade marking the 51st celebration of Unity Day in Yaounde on May 20, 2023. 

The end of the aging president's 42-year reign will leave a power vacuum that could engulf the country in crisis as various factions within the ruling elite, opposition parties and militants scramble to secure their interests. 

Cameroon Braces for Volatility Amid Concerns About President Biya's Health

An illustration of Russian and Moldovan flags.

The near rejection of the vote on EU membership reflects the continued strength of pro-Russian political forces ahead of the country's 2025 parliamentary election.

The Close Results of Moldova's Referendum Raise Fears of a Pro-Russian Government

Canada

Indian policemen stand guard outside the entrance of the High Commission of Canada in New Delhi on Oct. 15, 2024. 

The dispute over India's alleged covert activities on Canadian soil will raise the risk of restricted consular services and protests in both countries, but major economic disruptions are unlikely.

India and Canada's Diplomatic Rift Hits a New Low

The headquarters of China's central bank is seen on May 4, 2021.

The new measures reflect growing concerns about China's economic outlook, but their scale falls short of what is needed to maintain 5% growth and stop deflation.

Faced With Slowed Growth and Deflation Risks, China Unveils a New Stimulus Package

With both nations looking inward in 2025, the European Union will be deprived of its central leadership, leaving it without clear strategic direction or decisive policymaking.

French and German Struggles Leave the EU Adrift

On Security

Americas

A photo taken on June 24, 2024, shows the aftermath of a fire at a manufacturing facility in Berlin, Germany, that was allegedly linked to Russia.

Intelligence agencies are increasingly using third parties to do their dirty work abroad, raising the risk of miscalculations with potentially violent consequences.

The Saboteur's Dilemma: The Risk of Using Proxies for Espionage

App icons of social media platforms Twitter, Mastodon, Discord, Facebook, Reddit, Parler and Truth Social, are seen on an iPhone. 

As mis- and disinformation proliferate online, government-led content moderation efforts threaten to do more harm than good.

Can Europe Solve the Puzzle of Content Moderation?

Lebanon

Yemen

An Israeli tank Aug. 7, 2024, in southern Israel along the border with the Gaza Strip. Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year. 

Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year.

Will War in the Middle East Last Another Year?

A topographic map of Iran.

The exposure of its proxy strategy's shortcomings over the past year will force Iran to adapt its national security strategy to compensate.

Iran Grapples With a Weakened Axis of Resistance

Jordan

The Palestinian refugee camp of Bourj al-Barajneh on Aug. 8 in Beirut. Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 2

Smoke billows following an Israeli strike in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip on Aug. 11, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

Growing domestic and international pressure may force Israel to walk back its demands, leaving Hamas to step into an influential role in Gaza.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 1

Japan

The secretary general of the opposition Japan Innovation Party announced on Nov. 5 that the party's lawmakers would vote for party leader Nobuyuki Baba in the Nov. 11 lower house vote for prime minister, The Asahi Shimbun reported on Nov. 5.

Japan: Key Opposition Parties To Help Secure Ishiba's Minority Government

Science & Technology

Qatar's Nov. 5 constitutional referendum vote overwhelmingly backed an end to legislative elections that selected two-thirds of the 45-seat Shura Council, Reuters reported Nov. 6. 

Qatar: Constitutional Referendum Votes to End Shura Council Legislative Elections

Former U.S. president and Republican candidate Donald Trump is set to win the U.S. presidential election after securing victories in several battleground states in the early hours of Nov. 6, Reuters reported the same day. 

United States: Former President Trump Set to Win 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fired Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, replacing him with current Foreign Minister Israel Katz, The Times of Israel reported on Nov. 5. 

Israel: Netanyahu Fires Defense Minister Gallant

German authorities arrested eight men in Lower Saxony state, Poland and Austria accused of being members of a far-right terrorist group called the "Saxonian Separatists" and of plotting to seize parts of the country's east and carry out ethnic cleansing, Der Spiegel reported on Nov. 5.

Germany: Authorities Arrest Members of Far-Right Group Plotting Violent Coup in Eastern Germany

Mozambique

South Africa

Mozambique's opposition leader Venancio Mondlane, the presidential election runner-up, claims he survived an assassination attempt in Johannesburg, South Africa, where he fled after disputing the results of Mozambique's Oct. 9 presidential election, BBC reported on Nov. 5.

Mozambique: Opposition Leader Escapes Alleged Assassination Attempt in South Africa

A recreational sailing yacht suspected of use in the sabotage of undersea gas pipelines stands in dry dock on the headland of Bug on Ruegen Island on March 17, 2023, near Dranske, Germany. In a high-profile article published late on Aug. 14, The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines under the Baltic Sea in late September 2022.

The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, a reminder to us of the importance of acknowledging and doing our best to mitigate our analytic biases.

What New Revelations About the Nord Stream Attack Can Remind Us About Analytical Biases

United Kingdom

Ireland

Labour leader and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer (R) speaks with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (L) on July 07, 2024 in Edinburgh, Scotland. The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions. 

The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions.

The New British Government and Scottish and Northern Irish Separatism

At a rally in central Tbilisi on Nov. 4, Georgian opposition leaders revealed their plan for the protest movement following the country's Oct. 26 parliamentary election, Civil Georgia reported on Nov. 5. 

Georgia: Opposition Reveals Protest Action Plan

Pakistan

After approval by the Senate and National Assembly, the acting president signed six bills, notably including measures to increase the number of Supreme Court judges, amend Supreme Court procedures and administrative practices, and extend the terms of military chiefs from three to five years, Geo News reported on Nov. 5. 

Pakistan: Acting President Signs Six Bills into Law Regarding the Supreme Court and Army Chiefs' Terms

Saudi Arabia

The United States and Saudi Arabia are reportedly discussing a bilateral security agreement separate from the stalled mega-deal that includes a bilateral defense pact, Axios reported on Nov. 4. 

U.S., Saudi Arabia: Governments Discuss Bilateral Security Agreement

Hamas and Fatah have reportedly agreed to form a joint committee to govern Gaza to facilitate humanitarian aid distribution and reconstruction following the latest round of negotiations in Egypt, though details of the agreement are unknown, The New Arab reported Nov. 4, citing a senior Hamas source.

Palestinian Territories: Hamas and Fatah Agree to Form Joint Committee to Administer Gaza

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

Trump's Win Will Ripple Across the World

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Japan: Key Opposition Parties To Help Secure Ishiba's Minority Government

Qatar: Constitutional Referendum Votes to End Shura Council Legislative Elections

United States: Former President Trump Set to Win 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

Israel: Netanyahu Fires Defense Minister Gallant

Germany: Authorities Arrest Members of Far-Right Group Plotting Violent Coup in Eastern Germany

Mozambique: Opposition Leader Escapes Alleged Assassination Attempt in South Africa

Georgia: Opposition Reveals Protest Action Plan

Pakistan: Acting President Signs Six Bills into Law Regarding the Supreme Court and Army Chiefs' Terms

U.S., Saudi Arabia: Governments Discuss Bilateral Security Agreement

Palestinian Territories: Hamas and Fatah Agree to Form Joint Committee to Administer Gaza

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