Assessments

United States

Cambodia

Thailand

Poland

Ukraine

Russia

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in the Oval Office of the White House on July 22, 2025. 

Economics

Global Trade

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Last-Minute U.S. Trade Talks, a New Polish President

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim (center) speaks during a press conference next to Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet (left) and Thailand's acting prime minister Phumtham Wechayachai (right) in Putrajaya, Malaysia, on July 28, 2025. 

Military & Security

While the truce may hold in the short to medium term, unresolved disputes and political pressures sustain the risk of future clashes, with the next round likely to be even deadlier.

Gauging the Stability of the Thailand-Cambodia Ceasefire

U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to sign the GENIUS Act in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on July 18, 2025. 

Cyber

The United States has passed its first major federal cryptocurrency law, boosting institutional interest, but broader public adoption remains constrained by regulatory gaps and ongoing risks.

Cryptocurrency Legislation Advances, Sets New Course for U.S. Cryptocurrency Landscape

Snapshots

Morocco

A researcher from the International Center for Agricultural Research in Dry Areas (ICARDA) examines crops in a cultivated field in Morocco on April 18, 2024.

Environment, Science & Technology

Despite a temporary boost in crop yields from spring rainfall, Morocco's persistent drought and structural water shortages continue to threaten its agricultural sector, food security and economic stability ahead of the 2026 elections.

Rainfall Boosts Morocco's Crop Yields, But Long-Term Water Crisis Persists

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 31, 2025

Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during a press conference at the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on July 7, 2025. 

While most of Brazil's main exports are exempt, the additional U.S. tariffs -- along with Brazil's impending economic retaliation and the likely arrest of former President Bolsonaro -- will further strain bilateral ties.

The Implications of Trump's New Tariffs on Brazil

Cote d'Ivoire

Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara arrives at the Ebimpe Olympic Stadium on June 22, 2025, in Abidjan. 

President Ouattara's decision to seek a fourth term in Cote d'Ivoire's upcoming election, amid leading opposition candidates' inability to run, is fueling rising political tensions and increasing the risk of a post-election crisis.

Cote d'Ivoire Gears Up for a Heated Election Season 

Europe

A digital illustration shows a digital human head overlaying the EU flag.

Growing internal and U.S. pressure will likely force Brussels to delay or amend its landmark AI law, fueling short-term regulatory uncertainty that could hinder the technology's development in Europe.

The Fate of the EU's Ambitious AI Act

Iran

Iraq

Turkey

Iraq and Turkey's flags together on a textile cloth fabric 

Energy

Turkey is repositioning itself in Iraq by replacing its security-heavy posture with a push for economic and energy integration, signaling Ankara's long-term ambitions to become a regional power broker as U.S. and Iranian influence wanes.

Turkey Shifts Iraq Strategy Amid Waning U.S. and Iranian Influence

China

Taiwan

A voter leaves a booth during voting for the recall election at a polling station in Taipei, Taiwan, on July 26, 2025. 

Its victory in the recall votes will embolden the opposition KMT to press on with controversial reforms and defense spending cuts, but it will also help prevent a near-term escalation of cross-strait tensions.

A Failed Recall Emboldens Taiwan's Opposition

The EU flag is seen on stacked cargo containers.

The framework deal avoids an escalation of tit-for-tat tariffs that would have strained both economies, but various unresolved issues could still reignite transatlantic trade tensions in the future.

New U.S.-EU Deal Averts Full-Blown Trade War -- For Now

Latest

Germany

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Afghanistan

Pakistan

The flag of Afghanistan sits on the Afghan embassy in Moscow on July 4, 2025. 

As Afghanistan's neighbors deepen ties with the Taliban and Western states remain cautious, a widening diplomatic divide threatens to complicate efforts to address the country's worsening crises and regional security risks.

The Growing International Divide Over Taliban Ties Will Risk Regional Stability

The Geopolitics of Trade

Protectionist and security-driven data regulations are impeding digital and physical trade, potentially slowing global economic growth and innovation.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Diverging Digital Governance Threatens Data Flows

Maldives

India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) shakes hands with Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu upon meeting in Male on July 25, 2025. 

Improving relations will strengthen India's strategic foothold in the Indian Ocean, while granting the Maldives access to crucial financial support.

Modi Resets Ties With the Maldives After Its 'India Out' Campaign

Egypt

Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly (center right) meets with Chinese Premier Li Qiang (center left) in Cairo on July 10, 2025.

In the coming years, Egypt will deepen its economic ties with China via increased trade and investment, while simultaneously maintaining its military alliance with the U.S. to address regional security concerns.

Egypt Navigates Its Needs for Chinese Investment and U.S. Military Support

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba addresses the media at the vote counting center in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) headquarters in Tokyo on July 20, 2025.

Prime Minister Ishiba's days are likely numbered following his party's poor electoral performance, which will worsen policy gridlock and potentially weaken Tokyo's position in trade talks with Washington.

LDP's Defeat in Japan's Upper House Elections Will Stoke Political Instability

Indonesia

Containers are unloaded from a ship at a terminal of Tanjung Priok Port, the main seaport in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Jan. 24, 2025. 

In exchange for a lower U.S. tariff rate, Indonesia accepted significant concessions, including purchasing commitments and regulatory changes, that risk limiting its long-term autonomy and industrial policy goals.

To Avoid Steeper Tariffs, Indonesia Reaches High-Stakes Trade Deal With the U.S.

Columns

On Geopolitics

Lithuania

Finland

Latvia

Denmark

Estonia

Sweden

Norway

Belarus

A view in Rostock, Germany, of the first exit of warships for the NATO exercise BALTOPS in the Baltic Sea on June 5, 2025. 

In response to Russian aggression, NATO is seeking to establish strategic control over the Baltic Sea via rearmament and more assertive posturing, creating an environment where the risk of miscalculation grows exponentially.

Baltic on the Brink: The New Flashpoint in Europe's Confrontation With Russia

Israel

Syria

U.S. Army soldiers prepare to go out on patrol from a remote combat outpost in northeastern Syria on May 25, 2021. 

The U.S. is shifting its Syria strategy from isolation to limited engagement to stabilize the country and protect American interests there, but Turkey and Israel's competing influence campaigns could complicate Washington's approach.

In Post-Assad Syria, the U.S. Struggles to Find a New Strategy

Bahrain

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Vehicles drive along a main thoroughfare past a billboard that reads in Farsi and Hebrew: "A severe blow... The vile and villainous Zionist regime (Israel) has made a grave mistake,” in central Tehran on June 24, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The war has weakened Iran, but has also shifted regional perceptions of Israel as a destabilizing force, prompting Gulf states to reassess alliances, Turkey to emerge as a rival, and raising the risk of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.

Assessing the Regional Impact of the Israel-Iran War, Part 2

U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during a rally at a steel plant in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, on May 30, 2025. 

For the rest of his term, Trump will continue to use tariffs to secure foreign policy concessions on both trade and non-trade matters, even if he starts shifting away from broad, global tariff threats to ones focused on specific countries or goods. 

A Look at Trump's Evolving Tariff Strategy

Lebanon

Yemen

An Iranian flag is draped from a building damaged during a recent attack by Israel is seen in the Gisha neighborhood of Tehran, Iran, on June 25, 2025. 

The brief war with Israel has significantly weakened Iran's regional influence and military capabilities, forcing it and the members of its Axis of Resistance to recalibrate their strategies and focus on recovery.

The Impact of the 12-Day War on Iran and Its Allies, Part 1

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addresses the nation in a state television broadcast on June 18, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. 

While Israel's airstrikes appear aimed at destabilizing the country, they are alone unlikely to collapse the Islamic Republic, as Iranian leaders would probably make significant concessions to ensure the regime's survival rather than let it fall.

Assessing the Potential for Regime Change in Iran

U.S.-Iran Relations

Palestinian Territories

An Israeli tank rolls along the fence on the border with the Gaza Strip on June 4, 2025. 

Uncertainty regarding who will govern post-war Gaza and fund its reconstruction increases the likelihood of a prolonged Israeli occupation that would empower Israel's far-right to push for annexation and more extensive population displacement.

Is Gaza Destined for Another Israeli Occupation?

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.

Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?

Two anonymous Indian government officials said India will continue buying oil from Russia despite threats of sanctions from U.S. President Donald Trump, Reuters reported on Aug. 2.

India: Officials Say India Will Continue Importing Russian Oil, Despite Trump's Threats

Philippines

Armed Forces of the Philippines chief of staff Gen. Romeo Brawner announced that India and the Philippines on Aug. 3-4 carried out their first joint naval drill in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea, AP reported on Aug. 4.

India, Philippines: Navies Carry Out First Joint Exercise in South China Sea

The Chinese Communist Party is requiring public employees at local and national levels to turn in their passports and make formal requests to their employers for international travel, The Wall Street Journal reported on Aug. 3.

China: Beijing Limits Foreign Travel for a Growing Share of Public Employees

U.S.-China Relations

China is continuing to curb exports of rare earth minerals to Western defense companies despite recent deals between the United States and China to resume said flows, The Wall Street Journal reported on Aug. 3.

China: Rare Earth Export Curbs Persist for Western Defense Companies

Science & Technology

British energy company BP made its most significant oil and gas finding in 25 years in the deepwater pre-salt Bumerangue block in offshore Brazil, Reuters reported on Aug. 4. 

Brazil: Oil Finding Ahead of Climate Summit To Fuel Debate Over Government's Energy Policy

OPEC+ announced on Aug. 3 that it would raise oil production by an additional 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, the latest in a series of accelerated output hikes aimed at regaining market share, Reuters reported the same day.

Global: OPEC+ Confirms September Output Hike, Continuing Reversal of Voluntary Cuts

Hamas has said that it is willing to deliver aid to the Israeli hostages remaining in the Gaza Strip in coordination with the Red Cross if Israel establishes permanent humanitarian corridors within Gaza and stops conducting airstrikes while aid is being distributed, Reuters reported Aug. 3.

Palestinian Territories, Israel: Hamas Conditions Disarmament on Palestinian State

Benin

Nigeria

Nigeria and Benin have agreed on a framework for an Enhanced Economic Partnership Agreement as well as to extend trade-facilitation provisions between the two countries, The Punch reported Aug. 4. 

Nigeria, Benin: Governments Agree on Framework for Economic Partnership, Trade Facilitation Measures

A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.

The apparent ineffectiveness of consumer subsidies in raising retail sales, paired with the government's continued resistance to stimulus, suggests that China's post-COVID consumer activity will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow. The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy

U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of adjusted tariffs on dozens of countries late on July 31, prior to an Aug. 1 tariff deadline, included dropping the tariff on Taiwan from a threatened 32% rate to 20%, The South China Morning Post reported on Aug. 1.

Taiwan, U.S.: Taiwan Says U.S. 20% Tariff Is 'Provisional,' Still Seeking Deal

Canada

U.S. President Donald Trump issued an executive order on July 31 raising tariffs on Canadian goods to 35% from 25%, with tariffs taking effect Aug. 1, according to a White House fact sheet published on July 31.

U.S., Canada: U.S. Raises Tariffs on Canadian Goods to 35%

Media

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

The Growing International Divide Over Taliban Ties Will Risk Regional Stability

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

India: Officials Say India Will Continue Importing Russian Oil, Despite Trump's Threats

India, Philippines: Navies Carry Out First Joint Exercise in South China Sea

China: Beijing Limits Foreign Travel for a Growing Share of Public Employees

China: Rare Earth Export Curbs Persist for Western Defense Companies

Brazil: Oil Finding Ahead of Climate Summit To Fuel Debate Over Government's Energy Policy

Global: OPEC+ Confirms September Output Hike, Continuing Reversal of Voluntary Cuts

Palestinian Territories, Israel: Hamas Conditions Disarmament on Palestinian State

Nigeria, Benin: Governments Agree on Framework for Economic Partnership, Trade Facilitation Measures

Taiwan, U.S.: Taiwan Says U.S. 20% Tariff Is 'Provisional,' Still Seeking Deal

U.S., Canada: U.S. Raises Tariffs on Canadian Goods to 35%

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