Assessments

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 4, 2026

Snapshots

Europe

Switzerland

Citizens vote by raising their hands during the Landsgemeinde, a traditional public, non-secret ballot conducted by majority rule, in Appenzell, eastern Switzerland, on April 26.

Economics

Global Trade

Politics

If approved, the cap on the permanent resident population would compel Swiss companies to accelerate capital investment and automation initiatives to offset reduced EU migration.


Swiss Population Referendum Threatens Growth and EU Relations

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Russia

Thousands of Armenians participate in a rally in Yerevan's Republic Square on May 26, 2024. 

Energy

Military & Security

Prime Minister Pashinyan's likely reelection will empower him to finalize a peace treaty with Azerbaijan and deepen ties with the West, though Russian economic pressure and domestic opposition to constitutional changes could undermine these efforts.

What's at Stake in Armenia's Upcoming Election

Sub-Saharan Africa

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Mali

Mozambique

Niger

Nigeria

Rwanda

Sudan

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Control over critical natural resources is increasingly strengthening armed groups' durability and geographic reach, heightening their physical threats and their ability to create political instability.

Natural Resource Exploitation as an Engine for Insurgency in Sub-Saharan Africa

Turkey

A window view from Turkey's Eastern Express train. 

Improved relations could unlock strategic and economic benefits for both countries, especially if their border is reopened, though Russia's entrenched influence in Armenia remains a key constraint.

Russian Coercion Will Constrain Budding Turkey-Armenia Rapprochement

United Kingdom

Poland

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk attend a signing ceremony of a UK-Poland defence and security treaty at the Battle of Britain Bunker on May 27 in London, England.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Concerned about the reliability of the United States' security commitments, European nations are increasingly relying on bilateral defense agreements to secure their strategic interests and deter Russian aggression.


U.K. and Poland Hedge Against Transatlantic Uncertainty With Bilateral Treaty

Colombia

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

The Ateela 2 Oil Tanker on April 28 on Qeshm Island, Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.

Environment, Science & Technology

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran Discussions, Brussels To Unveil Tech Sovereignty Package

U.S.-Iran Relations

Philippines

Police personnel arrive outside the Senate of the Philippines in Pasay, Metro Manila, on May 13, 2026.

Intensifying Marcos-Duterte tensions, fueled by the vice president's impeachment and the ICC's attempted arrest of a Duterte-aligned senator, are testing Philippine institutions and threatening policy gridlock before the 2028 presidential race.

The Escalating Marcos-Duterte Feud Threatens Philippine Institutions

A fireball and smoke erupt from a building following an Israeli strike in Tyre, southern Lebanon, on May 28.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The recent expansion of Israeli operations in southern Lebanon demonstrates an effort to degrade Hezbollah's capabilities prior to any finalized de-escalation agreements between the United States and Iran.


The Strategic Implications of Israel's Expanded Lebanon Campaign

Supporters of Colombian presidential candidate Ivan Cepeda wave flags ahead of his closing campaign rally in Barranquilla, Colombia, on May 24, 2026.

A left-wing victory would portend increased social spending and policy gridlock, a far-right win would portend austerity and decree-based governance, and a center-right win would foster market-friendly policies and stability.

Colombia's Presidential Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Spain

A National Police van is parked in front of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party headquarters during the Civil Guard's police search on May 27, 2026, in Madrid, Spain. 

Widening inquiries into public procurement and influence peddling will continue to weaken the government of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.

Scandals Linked to Spanish PM Sanchez Point to Continued Political Paralysis 

Latest

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Guests stand outside a model carriage of the "Dream of the Desert" ultra-luxury train on display during the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Oct. 28, 2025.

Efforts to create new export routes via railways and pipelines will be hampered by regional mistrust, uncertain commercial viability and long construction timelines, ultimately keeping Gulf states reliant on the Strait of Hormuz.

All Roads Lead to Hormuz: The Limits of Gulf Infrastructure Diversification

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer (right) addresses journalists next to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent following a new round of trade discussions with Chinese officials at the OECD headquarters in Paris on March 16, 2026.

The scope of the Section 301 levies and the rapid investigations underpinning them portend more legal challenges, but this will not deter the White House from continuing its broader push to more sustainably implement its global tariff regime.

Trump Tries Again To Impose Sweeping Global Tariffs

Smoke rises following Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon as seen from a position across the border in the Upper Galilee in northern Israel on May 31, 2026.

Should Israel-Lebanon talks stall, the U.S. would be more likely to greenlight a broader campaign against Hezbollah, though it could also pressure Israel into a more comprehensive truce if Trump deems it necessary for an Iran deal.

U.S. Mediation Unlikely To Lead to Lasting Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire

Australia

China

Fiji

Japan

India

(From left to right) Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio hold a joint press conference after their Quad meeting in New Delhi on May 26, 2026.

The meeting proved the grouping is still functional, but it faces strong constraints in turning ambitious coordination frameworks into functional maritime, infrastructure, critical minerals and energy initiatives that blunt Chinese regional influence.

Takeaways From Quad Summit: New Initiatives, Enduring Constraints and Future Uncertainty

The USS Rafael Peralta implements a maritime blockade against an Iranian-flagged ship attempting to sail toward an Iranian port on April 26, 2026, in the Arabian Sea.

Despite ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic engagement, unresolved disputes and continued hostilities make prolonged, unstable containment more likely than a comprehensive, long-lasting peace agreement.

U.S.-Iran Talks More Likely To Contain the War Than Resolve It

Columns

On Geopolitics

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Social Issues

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Egypt

Iraq

Libya

Yemen

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Germany

France

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Cuba

The U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued new guidance indicating that the United States has placed sanctions on Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel, his wife and former President Raul Castro's son and one of his grandsons, Bloomberg reported on June 4.

Cuba, U.S.: U.S. Treasury Sanctions Cuban Officials, Entities

Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's open letter proposing a personal meeting and ceasefire, saying he saw no point in a meeting without comprehensive, long-lasting agreements, TASS reported on June 5.

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Dismisses Zelensky Meeting Proposal, Keeps Demands Intact

Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham confirmed he would seek to enter a Labour leadership contest if he wins the June 18 Makerfield by-election, speaking on June 4 on a BBC Question Time special alongside the other candidates for the vote.

U.K.: Burnham Confirms Labour Leadership Bid Against Starmer if He Wins Makerfield By-Election

Algeria

Morocco

Algeria's, Niger's and Nigeria's ministers of petroleum oversaw the start of construction works for the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, or TSGP, in Algeria's Adrar region, Jeune Afrique reported on June 5.

Africa: Algeria Kicks Off Construction of Trans-Sahara Gas Pipeline

Cambodia

Thailand

Thailand confirmed it will participate in a compulsory conciliation process under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea that Cambodia invoked to address the two countries' overlapping maritime claims in the Gulf of Thailand, the Bangkok Post reported on June 5.

Thailand, Cambodia: Maritime Conciliation Process Adds Risk to Land Border 

Indonesia

Indonesia published a new regulation clarifying the product-level scope of its new state-controlled commodity export regime, pursuant to which most exports of major palm oil products, several coal products and ferroalloy products containing more than 2% carbon by weight must move through the newly established state-owned entity Danatara Sumberdaya Indonesia, or DSI, Bloomberg reported on June 5.

Indonesia: Newly Announced Regulation Confirms Centralized Export Regime

Oman's Mina al Fahal port temporarily stopped exporting oil on June 4 due to an alleged drone attack near the facility, Reuters reported the same day.

MENA: Oman Reports Explosion Amid Revelations of Region-Wide Covert Israeli Campaign Against Iran

Ethiopia

Ethiopia reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund regarding the fifth review of its support program, which will result in the disbursement of $468 million once approved by the IMF executive board, Addis Standard reported on June 3. 

Ethiopia: Addis Ababa Reaches Staff-Level Agreement With IMF on Fifth Review

Science & Technology

Technicians work at the main blast furnace at the Zaporizhstal Iron and Steel Works on Feb. 12, 2024 in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine.

Part two of this report examines how either a comprehensive peace agreement or a severe escalation of the war would affect Ukraine's investment climate.



Scenarios for the Future of Foreign Investment in Ukraine, Part 2

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Tanzania

Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan met with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a state visit to Russia, following which Putin called for stronger trade ties between the two countries and stressed opportunities for deeper bilateral cooperation in the fields of energy, mining and logistics, The Chanzo reported on June 4.

Tanzania: President Hassan Meets Putin During State Visit to Russia

Moldova

All members of the European Union agreed to open talks with Ukraine and Moldova on the first cluster of issues in their accession negotiations, Reuters reported on June 3, citing Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko. 

EU, Ukraine, Moldova: EU Members Clear First Step in Accession Talks

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

U.S. Mediation Unlikely To Lead to Lasting Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Cuba, U.S.: U.S. Treasury Sanctions Cuban Officials, Entities

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Dismisses Zelensky Meeting Proposal, Keeps Demands Intact

U.K.: Burnham Confirms Labour Leadership Bid Against Starmer if He Wins Makerfield By-Election

Africa: Algeria Kicks Off Construction of Trans-Sahara Gas Pipeline

Thailand, Cambodia: Maritime Conciliation Process Adds Risk to Land Border

Indonesia: Newly Announced Regulation Confirms Centralized Export Regime

MENA: Oman Reports Explosion Amid Revelations of Region-Wide Covert Israeli Campaign Against Iran

Ethiopia: Addis Ababa Reaches Staff-Level Agreement With IMF on Fifth Review

Tanzania: President Hassan Meets Putin During State Visit to Russia

EU, Ukraine, Moldova: EU Members Clear First Step in Accession Talks

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