Assessments

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Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 10, 2025

China

Japan

Leaders of eight political parties pose before a debate at the Japan National Press Club on July 2, 2025, in Tokyo, Japan. From left to right are Sanseito Secretary General Sohei Kamiya, Japanese Communist Party Chairperson Tomoko Tamura, Komeito Chief Representative Tetsuo Saito, Constitutional Democratic Party President Yoshihiko Noda, Japan's Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party President Shigeru Ishiba, Governor of Osaka and Japan Innovation Party Co-Representative Hirofumi Yoshimura, Democratic Party for the People Representative Yuichiro Tamaki and Reiwa Shinsengumi President Taro Yamamoto.

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

Japan's upper house elections will determine whether the ruling Liberal Democratic Party will stay in power and -- if so -- how easily it will be able to pursue its key policy goals.

Japan's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Europe

Georgia

Russia

Georgian anti-government demonstrators attempt to block a highway entrance to the capital Tbilisi on Feb. 2, 2025

The government's efforts to suppress the opposition risk roiling its relations with the West, triggering more mass protests, and potentially enabling Russia to expand its influence in Georgia.

Georgia's Crackdown on Dissent Risks Drawing It Closer to Russia and Alienating the West

Snapshots

Lithuania

Germany

Poland

A newly installed sign pointing to Schengen transfer flights is pictured next to EU and Romanian flags on March 31, 2024. 

Poland's move to reimpose border checks to curb irregular migration from Germany and Lithuania highlights a greater trend that risks entrenching uncertainty for businesses and travelers in the EU's passport-free area.

New Polish Border Controls Bring Europe's Schengen Area Back Into Question

President Donald Trump bangs a gavel after signing a bill into law extending his 2017 tax cuts on July 4 in Washington.

The measure will prevent a sharp increase in income taxes that would shock the economy, but add to the already high U.S. government debt burden.

The Consequences of Extending Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts

Columns

On Geopolitics

Iran

Iraq

Israel

Lebanon

Yemen

An Iranian flag is draped from a building damaged during a recent attack by Israel is seen in the Gisha neighborhood of Tehran, Iran, on June 25, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The brief war with Israel has significantly weakened Iran's regional influence and military capabilities, forcing it and the members of its Axis of Resistance to recalibrate their strategies and focus on recovery.

The Impact of the 12-Day War on Iran and Its Allies, Part 1

Brazil

France

United Kingdom

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Netanyahu's U.S. Visit, a Franco-British Summit

U.S.-Iran Relations

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Energy

Global Trade

Over the next decade, Gulf Arab states will increase oil and gas exports to emerging Asian markets, seeking alternatives to the U.S. amid tariff uncertainty. But the region's military and tech ties with the U.S. will remain strong.

Geopolitics of Trade: Gulf Arab States Balance Diversification With Enduring U.S. Ties

Vietnam

Vietnam's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Pham Thu Hang answers reporters' questions about the new Vietnam-U.S. trade deal during a press conference in Hanoi on July 3, 2025. 

The deal reduces planned U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese goods from 46% to 20%, but the lack of key details also introduces significant compliance uncertainty and investment risks that could ripple across Asian supply chains. 

The Vietnam-U.S. Trade Deal Reduces Tariffs, but the Devil Is in the Details

Cambodia

Thailand

Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra (center) speaks next to Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai (2nd from left) during a press conference in Bangkok following her suspension by the country's Constitutional Court on July 1, 2025. 

Paetongtarn's suspension from office over a leaked phone call with Cambodia's former leader risks collapsing her fragile government and inviting more economic disruption amid U.S. trade tensions.

A Fresh Political Crisis Erupts in Thailand Following Prime Minister's Suspension

Armenia

Azerbaijan

A man walks past Azerbaijan's Embassy in Moscow on July 2, 2025. 

As the relationship between Azerbaijan and Russia sours, outside powers will embrace opportunities to increase their influence in the Caucasus.

 In the Caucasus, Russia's Sway Weakens Amid Quarrel With Azerbaijan

Latest

A collapsed water tank painted with the Lebanese flag is seen in the ruins of a village in southern Lebanon, located near the border with Israel, on Jan. 7, 2025.

Ahead of Lebanon's 2026 election, Hezbollah will try to portray itself as a nationalist resistance movement rather than an Iranian proxy, but the risk of renewed conflict with Israel will persist unless the group disarms. 

To Ease Pressure to Disarm, Hezbollah Pursues a Rebrand 

Ukraine

A Ukrainian soldier works on an AN/TWQ-1 Avenger anti-aircraft missile system on Nov. 28, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Despite Trump's impatience with Russia's failure to de-escalate in Ukraine, the White House is highly unlikely to dramatically ramp up pressure in a way that significantly alters the Kremlin's calculus.

What Trump's Growing Frustration With Russia Means for U.S. Policy

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer (L) and French President Emmanuel Macron hold a press conference on July 10, 2025, in London.

The series of agreements will deepen cooperation between Europe's two nuclear powers at a time of strategic flux and institutional fragmentation across the Continent.

New U.K.-France Defense Deals Mark a Step Toward a European Nuclear Deterrent

Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama looks on as offerings presented by Buddhist followers are laid on a table during a Long Life Prayer offering ceremony at the Main Tibetan Temple in McLeod Ganj, near the Indian city of Dharamshala, on June 30, 2025. 

Social Issues

New clarity over the 90-year-old spiritual leader's succession plans threatens to reignite Western criticism of China's treatment of Tibetans and revive reputational risks for Western businesses active in China.

Dalai Lama's Succession Plan Revives Tibet Issue for China and the West

U.S.-China Relations

A Ukrainian soldier works on an Avenger AN/TWQ-1 anti-aircraft missile system on Nov. 28, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine.

Without new supplies of U.S. Patriot interceptors and precision-guided munitions, Ukraine will struggle to defend against Russia's escalating aerial attacks, which could eventually force it into an unfavorable peace deal.

Ukraine Grapples With a Freeze on U.S. Weapons Deliveries

U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during a rally at a steel plant in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, on May 30, 2025. 

For the rest of his term, Trump will continue to use tariffs to secure foreign policy concessions on both trade and non-trade matters, even if he starts shifting away from broad, global tariff threats to ones focused on specific countries or goods. 

A Look at Trump's Evolving Tariff Strategy

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addresses the nation in a state television broadcast on June 18, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. 

While Israel's airstrikes appear aimed at destabilizing the country, they are alone unlikely to collapse the Islamic Republic, as Iranian leaders would probably make significant concessions to ensure the regime's survival rather than let it fall.

Assessing the Potential for Regime Change in Iran

Palestinian Territories

An Israeli tank rolls along the fence on the border with the Gaza Strip on June 4, 2025. 

Uncertainty regarding who will govern post-war Gaza and fund its reconstruction increases the likelihood of a prolonged Israeli occupation that would empower Israel's far-right to push for annexation and more extensive population displacement.

Is Gaza Destined for Another Israeli Occupation?

Syria

Turkey

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.

Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?

A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.

The apparent ineffectiveness of consumer subsidies in raising retail sales, paired with the government's continued resistance to stimulus, suggests that China's post-COVID consumer activity will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow. The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy

Visitors walk down the inclined shaft at Steenkampskraal rare-earth mine on July 29, 2019, about 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) from Vanrhynsdorp, a town in Western Cape province, South Africa.

Environment, Science & Technology

U.S.-China trade tensions are increasing the risk of supply chain disruptions for critical raw materials, but companies can take steps to mitigate this danger.

Corporate America Comes to Grips With Supply Chain Risks to Critical Raw Materials

Argentina

The Argentine Senate approved three bills immediately increasing pensions by 7.2% in nominal terms, securing resources to provinces and a relief fund to Bahia Blanca, a city hit by floods earlier in the year, La Nacion reported July 10.

Argentina: Senate Approves Bill to Increase Pensions, Serving Blow to Milei 

Vietnam's leaders were surprised after U.S. President Donald Trump unilaterally announced a 20% tariff rate on Vietnamese exports on July 2 because, according to sources cited in a July 11 Politico report, this was almost double the 11% rate Hanoi had reportedly agreed to in its trade negotiations with the White House.

Vietnam, U.S.: Lack of Consensus on Trade Deal Puts It In Jeopardy

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks they both described as ''constructive'' on the sidelines of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, the South China Morning Post reported July 11.

U.S., China: Rubio-Wong Talks Could Set Stage for Trump-Xi Summit

Canada

In a letter published on Truth Social on July 10, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to increase tariffs on Canada to 35%.

U.S., Canada: Trump Threatens New 35% Tariff on Canadian Goods 

Senegal

During a July 10 meeting of the ruling Patriots of Senegal (PASTEF) party, Senegalese Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko urged President Bassirou Diomaye Faye to intervene against what he called ''unacceptable attacks'' by critics or allow Sonko to handle them himself, Jeune Afrique reported July 11.

Senegal: Tensions Erupt Between Prime Minister and President

Australia

Senior naval officials from the United States, Japan and Australia signed a trilateral logistics cooperation agreement, according to a July 11 readout from the U.S. Navy. 

U.S., Japan, Australia: Countries Sign Naval Logistics Pact

Around 30 Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) fighters destroyed their weapons in a ceremony near Sulaymaniyah in Iraqi Kurdistan, marking the start of the PKK's disarmament process, The New York Times reported July 11.

Turkey: PKK Conducts Symbolic Disarmament Ceremony in Iraq

Central African Republic

The Central African Republic (CAR) government, with mediation from Chad, officially dissolved two major rebel groups: Return, Reclamation and Rehabilitation (3R) and the Union for Peace in the Central African Republic (UPC), RFI reported July 11.

Central African Republic: Main Rebel Groups Officially Dissolved Under New Agreement 

South Africa

John Steenhuisen, the leader of the center-right Democratic Alliance (DA) -- the second largest party in South Africa's ruling coalition behind the left-leaning African National Congress (ANC) -- insisted that his party would not support the budgets for the Department of Higher Education and the Department of Human Settlements, despite warnings from the senior legal adviser to South Africa's parliament that the 2025 budget could not be approved unless every single departmental budget was approved, Daily Maverick reported July 10.

South Africa: ANC-DA Tensions Pose New Risks to Budget and Government Stability

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 3, 2025

Vietnamese lawmakers vote on a merger of provinces and cities at the National Assembly in Hanoi on June 12, 2025.

The reduction in provincial- and commune-level units will initially create bureaucratic headaches, but if implemented effectively, the changes set the stage for leaner administration, fiscal efficiency, reduced corruption and improved investment conditions.

Vietnam's Administrative Overhaul: A New Era of Governance and Investment Conditions

Science & Technology

For export-reliant developing countries that were already facing financial distress, the global uncertainty created by Trump's sweeping tariffs will sharply increase economic risks, as well as introduce political instability risks.

 Trump's Tariffs Will Hit Developing Economies Hard

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B aircraft over the North Sea having taken off from RAF Fairford on July 1, 2016 in Gloucestershire, England. The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

Washington Bumps up Against the Limits of Airpower in the Middle East

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said the country will resort to its economic reciprocity law to retaliate against the 50% tariff U.S. President Donald Trump announced would begin Aug. 1, Folha de S.Paulo reported on July 9. 

U.S., Brazil: Brazil To Consider Alternative Retaliation to 50% U.S. Tariffs

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

How Great Power Competition Is Changing the Geopolitics of Mongolia

For Moscow, soft power is more about sowing discord among the Kremlin's enemies than singing Russia's praises.

Rather than trumpet Russia's praises overseas, Moscow's propaganda machine is focused more on undermining the Kremlin's enemies.

Russia Takes a Hard Approach to Soft Power

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the late founder of Kataib Hezbollah, commanded respect in Iraq. His death, more than Qassem Soleimani's in the same attack, soured many Iraqis on the U.S. presence in their country.

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis fought Saddam Hussein, engineered attacks on Western embassies and took on the Islamic State. His death in the same strike that killed Iran's Qassem Soleimani increased local hostility to the U.S. presence in Iraq.

Reflections on the Life and Death of an Iraqi Militant

Guatemala

Guatemala is still working out the details of how it will implement a 'safe third country' agreement signed last year with the United States.

The country's new president is likely to use the questions surrounding the implementation of the 'safe third country' agreement to wrest additional support from the U.S.

What Trump's Growing Frustration With Russia Means for U.S. Policy

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Argentina: Senate Approves Bill to Increase Pensions, Serving Blow to Milei

Vietnam, U.S.: Lack of Consensus on Trade Deal Puts It In Jeopardy

U.S., China: Rubio-Wong Talks Could Set Stage for Trump-Xi Summit

U.S., Canada: Trump Threatens New 35% Tariff on Canadian Goods

Senegal: Tensions Erupt Between Prime Minister and President

U.S., Japan, Australia: Countries Sign Naval Logistics Pact

Turkey: PKK Conducts Symbolic Disarmament Ceremony in Iraq

Central African Republic: Main Rebel Groups Officially Dissolved Under New Agreement

South Africa: ANC-DA Tensions Pose New Risks to Budget and Government Stability

U.S., Brazil: Brazil To Consider Alternative Retaliation to 50% U.S. Tariffs

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