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AssessmentsJan 31, 2025 | 17:39 GMT
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba hold a joint press conference on Jan. 10, 2025.
Ishiba Strengthens Japan's Role in Southeast Asia With Defense and Trade Deals
Japan's ongoing diplomatic push in Southeast Asia seeks to counterbalance China by strengthening defense and economic ties, enhancing regional security and reducing trade dependence on China as well as security dependence on the United States by positioning itself as a more proactive security partner. In recent weeks, Japan has significantly intensified its diplomatic outreach to Southeast Asia. For example, on Jan. 10, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba traveled to Malaysia, where he and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim agreed to enhance maritime security, deepen defense ties and explore collaboration in energy and supply chain resilience. Japan agreed to provide training and capacity-building for Malaysia's coast guard and to strengthen cooperation in the development of green energy technologies. Japan and Malaysia also agreed to collaborate on strengthening semiconductor supply chains through technology transfers, research and development, and diversifying sources to insulate supply chains from risk. On Jan. 11, Ishiba also met Indonesian
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United States
China
Indonesia
Japan
Laos
Malaysia
Philippines
Vietnam
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 28, 2024 | 21:37 GMT
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba arrives for a plenary session at the lower house of parliament on Oct. 9, 2024, in Tokyo, Japan.
Japan's LDP Loses Its Majority in Snap Ballot, Portending Policy Gridlock
Despite losing its parliamentary majority in snap elections, Japan's ruling coalition will likely stay in power but will face greater legislative gridlock and a higher probability for rapid turnover in the role of premier in 2025, while in a low likelihood scenario, an opposition government would result in even more legislative gridlock and could strain U.S. defense and economic ties. The Oct. 27 snap elections for the powerful lower house of Japan's Diet saw the ruling coalition of the big-tent, conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its center-right minor coalition partner Komeito, lose its majority, dropping from a combined 288 seats to 215 seats in the 465-seat House of Representatives. Within that total, the LDP dropped from 255 to 191 seats and Komeito from 32 to 24. Meanwhile, the main opposition party, the center-left Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), gained 50 seats, rising to a total of 148, while the right-wing
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Japan
Politics
AssessmentsSep 18, 2024 | 20:18 GMT
The candidates for Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) leadership election sit on stage during a debate in Tokyo on Sept. 14, 2024.
Previewing Japan's LDP Leadership Election
Japan's next leader will continue improving military ties abroad and focus on curbing cost-of-living challenges at home, but if he or she is replaced quickly after taking office, the rapid turnover would risk reducing Tokyo's preparedness for regional conflicts. On Sept. 27, lawmakers from and members of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party will go to the polls to decide the next party president and, given the LDP's coalition majority in the parliament, Japan's next prime minister. This election is regularly scheduled -- occurring once every three years -- but it also follows an LDP slush fund scandal that arose in November 2023. Since then, public support for current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and the LDP has tanked, driving Kishida to announce on Aug. 14 that he would not seek a new term as party president. With a general election fast approaching as well -- due by October 2025 for the
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Japan
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsMay 30, 2024 | 20:41 GMT
(From left to right) Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Chinese Premier Li Qiang attend a joint press conference during a trilateral summit on May 27, 2024, in Seoul, South Korea.
Reviewing the China-Japan-South Korea Summit: A Long Shot Effort To Ease Tensions
Despite ongoing efforts to improve trilateral ties, South Korean and Japanese economic and security interests will remain largely at odds with those of China, making progress on trade and military cooperation difficult. However, potential leadership changes in the United States and Japan, along with potential economic changes in South Korea, hold a small chance of improving this dim outlook for cooperation between the three countries.
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China
Japan
South Korea
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMay 28, 2024 | 15:06 GMT
The 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections, Northern Asia and Geopolitical Risk: What to Expect
The prospect of a second term in office for incumbent President Joe Biden suggests policy continuity towards Northern Asia, while the prospect of former President Donald Trump returning to office will likely lead to unilateral U.S. actions such as trade and tariff policies toward regional actors like China, in addition to a potential softening of relations with Russia and North Korea.
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United States
China
Japan
North Korea
South Korea
Taiwan
Russia
Politics
AssessmentsMay 9, 2024 | 20:18 GMT
Natsumi Sakai (C) of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan poses with others after receiving news that she won the by-election for the Tokyo No. 15 district seat for the lower house, in Tokyo, Japan, on April 28, 2024.
By-Election Losses Shake Japan's Ruling Party, but Kishida Stays the Course
By-election losses signal low support for Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, or LDP, ahead of the 2025 general election, but Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will likely remain in power at least through September, maintaining Japan's domestic and regional military strengthening efforts. The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, or CDPJ, won all three lower house parliamentary seats from the ruling LDP in the country's April 28 by-elections. The LDP chose not to field candidates for the Tokyo No. 15 and Nagasaki No. 3 district seats rather than lose the races outright, but the party still fielded LDP politician Norimasa Nishikori for the Shimane No. 1 district seat, which had been an LDP stronghold since 1996. The loss in Shimane came despite Kishida's two visits to the district after the campaign season began on April 16.
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United States
China
Japan
North Korea
South Korea
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsApr 15, 2024 | 18:57 GMT
U.S. President Joe Biden (right) and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida shake hands following a joint press conference in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 10, 2024, in Washington, D.C.
Japan-U.S. Relationship Serves as a Model for Indo-Pacific Security, a Bad Omen for China
The recent summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida indicates the indispensability of the expanding Japan-U.S. defense partnership to both countries' Asia-Pacific policy agendas and the secondary nature of the United States' ties with South Korea, while new U.S.-Japan defense cooperation will exacerbate China's sense of entrapment, furthering Beijing's partnerships with authoritarian regimes and its long-term preparations for a Taiwan conflict. Biden and Kishida met on April 10 for an hour and a half in a closed-door meeting, followed by a joint press conference at the White House and a state dinner for Kishida and his wife later that night. A joint statement later released by both sides explored the geopolitical, industrial, and defense content of the meeting. On the geopolitical side, much ink was spilled affirming ideological common ground, including a free and open international order; opposing Chinese efforts to change the territorial status
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United States
China
Japan
South Korea
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsApr 8, 2024 | 19:21 GMT
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (center), flanked by two other U.S. officials, is seen during a meeting with Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and Philippine Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo (not pictured) on the sidelines of the 78th United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York City on Sept. 22, 2023.
What To Watch for During the Inaugural U.S.-Japan-Philippines Summit
A trilateral partnership between the United States, Japan and the Philippines focusing on cyberdefense, joint maritime patrols and supply chain resilience will likely help improve freedom of navigation and economic security in the South China Sea, but it may also raise the risk of trade disputes and conflict with China. U.S. President Joe Biden will host Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for a state visit on April 10, followed by a trilateral summit on April 11 where Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will also be present. The trilateral summit between the United States, the Philippines and Japan will be the first of its kind and will focus on three main areas: national security, economic security and mitigating climate change, with an eye toward institutionalizing cooperation via formal dialogue mechanisms in the medium-to-long term. The summit will likely conclude with the issuance of a joint vision statement laying out each country's
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United States
Japan
Philippines
Cyber
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsDec 15, 2023 | 21:48 GMT
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida speaks during a press conference in Tokyo, Japan, on Dec. 13, 2023.
In Japan, Kishida's Leadership Purge Will Likely Lead to His Own Ouster
Scandals surrounding Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Japan's ruling party will likely lead to Kishida's replacement in 2024, which could cause Tokyo to focus on domestic affairs, weakening Japan's efforts to expand its regional military ties in the face of strategic challenges from China. On Dec. 14, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced the resignations of top cabinet officials in connection to a slush fund scandal within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The officials include Chief Cabinet Minister Hirokazu Matsuno, Industry Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura, Agriculture Minister Ichiro Miyashita, and Internal Affairs Minister Junji Suzuki. Three LDP leaders also stepped down from their posts, including the chairman of the party's research council, Koichi Hagiuda, parliamentary affairs chief Tsuyoshi Takagi, and LDP secretary-general of the Upper House Hiroshige Seko. All seven of these officials were from the Abe faction in the LDP, formerly led by late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe,
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Japan
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsSep 15, 2023 | 21:24 GMT
Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (center) attends an executive meeting of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party at the party's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on Sept. 13, 2023, ahead of an expected Cabinet reshuffle.
In Japan, Kishida's Cabinet Reshuffle Is Intended to Facilitate a Snap Election
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's Cabinet reshuffle and impending stimulus could expedite a snap election, bolstering his Western-facing security agenda and economic policies. Stimulus could also accelerate Kishida's plans to regain control over Japan's monetary policy. Kishida on Sept. 13 revealed 11 new members of a 19-member Cabinet, including five women (up from two previously), as well as new defense and foreign ministers. He also kept a mixture of figures from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) four largest factions in both his Cabinet and LDP party leadership itself. Much of the economy-related portfolios remained the same, including the finance and industry ministers, as well as the minister in charge of economic security. However, Kishida replaced Economic Revitalization Minister Shigeyuki Goto, formerly of the finance ministry (known for its budgetary prudence), with Yoshitaka Shindo, former vice minister of the economy and industry ministry.
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Japan
Economics
Politics
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