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SnapshotsMay 14, 2025 | 17:39 GMT
Supporters of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. attend a campaign rally in Mandaluyong, the Philippines, on May 9, 2025, ahead of the midterm elections.
Midterm Elections Deal a Blow to the Philippines' U.S.-Friendly President
The Philippine president's Senate majority diminished in midterm elections, which could slow defense deals in the short term and tilt foreign policy back toward neutrality or a China-friendly stance in the long term. The May 12 Philippine midterm elections reduced President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s majority in the country's Senate and reaffirmed the dominance of former President Rodrigo Duterte's family (Marcos' main political rivals) in its southern stronghold of Mindanao. Prior to the vote, Marcos' coalition held 15 of 24 Senate seats, one shy of a supermajority that it hoped to gain in the vote. However, of the 12 contested this cycle, preliminary results show candidates aligned with Marcos won only six, reducing the pro-Marcos bloc to 14 seats, now two short of the 16-seat supermajority needed to approve or block impeachment processes. Duterte-aligned candidates, meanwhile, gained at least five seats. Two independents are currently projected to hold the remaining seats. In
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United States
China
Philippines
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 13, 2025 | 21:28 GMT
Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is escorted by security personnel as he enters a campaign rally at Southorn Stadium in Hong Kong, China, on March 9, 2025.
In the Philippines, Duterte's Arrest Raises the Stakes of Upcoming Elections
The high-profile arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte risks factionalizing Philippine institutions and altering the landscape around the country's May midterm elections, which will help determine whether the current administration's defense and foreign policy agenda continues or stalls.​ On March 11, Duterte was arrested on an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant accusing him of crimes against humanity related to the deadly anti-drug campaigns he oversaw as mayor of Davao City and later as president of the Philippines. He was apprehended at Manila's Ninoy Aquino International Airport after returning from Hong Kong, and was then extradited to The Hague in the Netherlands, where he is currently detained at the ICC detention center awaiting trial proceedings that could last several years and ultimately result in a prison sentence of up to 30 years. Duterte's anti-drug crackdowns, which began in 2016, officially led to approximately 6,000 fatalities, though some human rights groups
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Philippines
Politics
AssessmentsSep 25, 2024 | 15:14 GMT
A pedestrian walks past a billboard with an election poster for Harald Vilimsky, the top candidate of Austria's right-wing Freedom Party in the June European Parliament elections, on May 13, 2024.
What a Far-Right Electoral Win Would Mean for Austria
The far-right is likely to win Austria's upcoming general election, which could result in either a fragile broad coalition government or a far-right-led coalition that may weaken EU support for Ukraine and disrupt the free movement of people and goods within the bloc. Austria will hold parliamentary elections on Sept. 29, with opinion polls indicating the far-right, anti-immigration, eurosceptic Freedom Party, or FPO, will receive 28% of the votes, followed by the ruling center-right Austrian People's Party, or OVP, with 25%. Meanwhile, the center-left opposition Social Democratic Party, or SPO, is expected to take 20% of the votes, the liberal NEOS party 9% and the other co-governing party, the Greens, 8%. The FPO has kept a substantial lead over the OVP and the other main opposition party, the SPO, for almost two years, propelled by Austrians' grievances against a sluggish economy, illegal migration and a heightened Islamist extremist terrorist threat
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Austria
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsFeb 9, 2024 | 18:55 GMT
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers a speech during a political rally in Manila on Jan. 28, 2024.
Tensions Flare Between the Philippines' Current and Former Presidents
In the Philippines, a growing political dispute between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and former President Rodrigo Duterte could reignite secessionist sentiment on the Mindanao island and potentially derail government efforts to open the country to foreign investment and keep close ties with the United States. In early January, the Philippines House of Representatives began a nationwide signature campaign to initiate a People's Initiative to amend the 1987 constitution, distributed mostly through local mayoral offices but also through private activist efforts. Specifically, the petition asks voters whether they support amending the constitution to require both chambers of Congress to vote jointly on constitutional changes. Congress would then vote on lifting caps on foreign ownership of businesses and Filipino natural resources. The Senate, which totals 24 members to the House's 316, is against the initiative, given that it would effectively take away its voting power on such matters. Former President Duterte agrees
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Philippines
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsNov 15, 2023 | 20:37 GMT
Chilean President Gabriel Boric (center) shows a signed decree that calls for a referendum to approve a new constitution on Nov. 7, 2023, in Santiago, Chile.
What to Expect as Chile Votes on a New Constitution (Again)
While Chile's upcoming constitutional referendum is unlikely to drastically change the country's socio-economic model, it highlights ideological divisions that will create long-term political and economic uncertainty in the country. On Dec. 17, Chile will hold a mandatory referendum to approve a new constitution, its second such referendum in two years. Millions of voters will decide whether to adopt a controversial document written by a majority right-wing Constitutional Council. After five months of drafting, the council delivered the final draft to President Gabriel Boric on Nov. 6. The document has faced criticism for including business-friendly economic policies similar to the current constitution, as well as controversial articles that could further restrict abortion access in Chile and expel thousands of illegal immigrants from the country. According to CADEM polling released Nov. 12, only 32% of Chileans plan to vote in favor of the new constitution while 50% plan to reject it, with
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Chile
Politics
Social Issues
SnapshotsMay 9, 2023 | 17:37 GMT
Supporters of Chile's far-right Republican Party celebrate their victory in the Constitutional Council election on May 7, 2023.
Chileans Task Right-Wing Parties to Draft Their Next Constitution
Right-wing parties' majority in the body helping draft Chile's new constitution may spark leftist protests in the near term, but it will also alleviate concerns about major constitutional changes that could erode the country's investment climate. Right-wing parties won 33 of 51 seats in a May 7 vote to select the assembly charged with drafting a new Chilean constitution, giving them a veto-proof majority in the Constitutional Council. Chile is currently undergoing its second constitutional rewrite process after voters rejected a proposed charter that would have significantly reformed the South American country's political and economic system in a September 2022 referendum. Unlike the first proposed constitution, which was written solely by a popularly elected body, the next iteration will be drafted by both the newly elected council and a group of experts picked by Congress. The inclusion of a panel of experts in the rewrite process, combined with the right-wing's
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Chile
Economics
Politics
Social Issues
SnapshotsSep 6, 2022 | 20:04 GMT
People opposed to Chile's proposed new constitution celebrate in the streets of Santiago on Sept. 4, 2022, after the first results of the referendum showed the number of ''no'' votes far exceeding the number of ''yes'' votes. 
In Chile, the Rejection of a New Constitution Won't Put the Issue to Rest
In Chile, the rejection of the constitutional rewrite will likely increase civil unrest and spur further efforts to implement constitutional changes, leading businesses in the extractive industry sector to take a wait-and-see approach in making large financial decisions. On Sept. 4, Chilean voters overwhelmingly rejected the 2021-2022 constitutional rewrite, with 62% voting to reject and only 38% voting to approve in an election that saw nearly 86% turnout of eligible voters, an unexpectedly high level. Leftist Chilean President Gabriel Boric accepted the result -- which saw an even larger margin of defeat than polling had suggested -- while also calling for a dialogue with centrist and right-wing parties to develop a new constitutional proposal that would better unite the country. 
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Chile
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Politics
Social Issues
GuidanceAug 30, 2022 | 21:07 GMT
Citizens in Santiago receive a copy of the proposed new Chilean constitution on Aug. 29, 2022, ahead of the upcoming referendum. 
What to Expect as Chile Votes on a New Constitution
On Sept. 4, Chileans will vote on whether to adopt a new constitution that would significantly alter their country's political structure and business climate. Regardless of the result of the referendum, however, Chile's left-wing and right-wing political forces will push for their own constitutional amendments, which will keep legal uncertainty high and threaten decades of regulatory stability.
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Chile
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Politics
SnapshotsJan 18, 2022 | 16:20 GMT
Demonstrators in Santiago take part in a protest against Chilean President Sebastian Pinera’s efforts to privatize the country’s lithium industry on Jan. 7, 2022.
In Chile’s Lithium Sector, the End of Pinera’s Privatization Era Nears
Chile’s incoming left-wing government and constitutional convention will attempt to limit private-sector investment in lithium production while bolstering a new state-owned mining company, which could drive up the cost of the element and make the global energy transition more costly. Almost a week after new lithium concessions were announced, a Chilean appeals court suspended the bidding process at the request of local Indigenous communities. Two companies -- China’s electric car maker BYD Co. Ltd. and Chile’s Servicios y Operaciones Mineras del Norte -- were previously awarded contracts to produce a combined 80,000 metric tons of lithium over the course of 20 years, accounting for 1.8% of Chile’s known lithium. The auction was a last-ditch effort by outgoing center-right President Sebastian Pinera to reverse Chile’s steadily declining share of global lithium production before his leftist successor, President-elect Gabriel Boric, takes office on March 11. 
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Chile
Energy
Economics
Politics
Environment, Science & Technology
Situation ReportJan 6, 2022 | 20:26 GMT
Chile: Lawmakers Attempt to Block New Lithium Concessions
Opposition members in Chile’s National Congress put forward a bill to delay granting new lithium concessions until after Chile's new constitution is drafted, blocking outgoing Chilean President Sebastian Pinera’s proposal to auction mining rights for roughly 400,000 tons of lithium that could be exercised for 29 years, La Prensa Latina Media reported Jan. 5.
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Chile
Energy
Economics
Politics
Environment, Science & Technology
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