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Situation ReportDec 15, 2025 | 19:34 GMT
Hong Kong, U.S., U.K.: Jimmy Lai Convicted, Raises Dilemma for Trump, Starmer
A Hong Kong national security court found Jimmy Lai, the 78-year-old founder of shuttered pro-democracy newspaper Apple Daily, guilty on two counts of conspiring to collude with foreign forces under the 2020 National Security Law and one count of sedition under a colonial-era law, Hong Kong Free Press reported on Dec. 15.
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United States
Hong Kong SAR, China
China
United Kingdom
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsOct 3, 2025 | 15:15 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade
The Geopolitics of Trade: Due Diligence and Congo's Critical Minerals
The Democratic Republic of the Congo is likely to remain a high-risk location for sourcing critical minerals in the coming years, sustaining various legal, financial and reputational pressures. The potential easing of Western regulations could temporarily reduce these risks, though it would also incentivize due diligence shortcuts that increase exposure to conflict-linked minerals over time. According to numerous metrics, Congo is the world's highest-risk location for so-called "conflict minerals," meaning those extracted from areas experiencing typically prolonged conflict often driven by competition over resources, intercommunal violence, proxy wars and insurgencies. The conditions under which these minerals are extracted often include human rights violations, at times spanning from their initial extraction process through to their final sale. In Congo, conflict minerals are concentrated mainly in the eastern region, an area home to more than 120 armed groups. Within eastern Congo, the most common conflict minerals are tin, tungsten and tantalum --
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Democratic Republic of the Congo
Rwanda
United States
Europe
Economics
Global Trade
Military & Security
AssessmentsSep 15, 2025 | 21:16 GMT
From left to right, Small Business Administration administrator Kelly Loeffler, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Environmental Protection Agency administrator Lee Zeldin listen as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a Cabinet meeting on Aug. 26, 2025, in Washington, D.C.
U.S. Digital Defenses Weaken, Opening the Door for Nation-State Operations
In the United States, rollbacks of federal efforts to counter foreign influence, coupled with weakening private sector content moderation, will more easily facilitate nation-state online influence operations. These operations will enable a greater proliferation of disinformation designed to stoke societal tensions, diminish faith in democratic institutions and influence public sentiments and government policy. On Aug. 20, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard announced plans to further slash staff for her office, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which oversees the country's intelligence community. In conjunction with previous cuts announced in February, the latest cuts will reduce the office's personnel by nearly 50%. The most recent cuts center on consolidating teams focused on countering cyber threats and influence operations, and they include shrinking the Foreign Malign Influence Center, which serves as the primary organization for integrating intelligence on foreign influence operations, including efforts to influence U.S. elections. While
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United States
Cyber
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportSep 3, 2025 | 15:11 GMT
U.S.: Judge Orders Google to Share Some Search Data, but Rejects Breakup in Antitrust Case
On Sept. 2 a federal judge barred Google from entering exclusive contracts with other companies on the distribution of Google Search and several other of its products, but rejected the Justice Department's demand for structural remedies -- including the forced divestiture of Chrome or Android -- in the remedy phase of the landmark antitrust ruling made last year that found that Google held a monopoly and acted unlawfully to protect that monopoly in online search.
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United States
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsMay 26, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade: India
India's future trade strategy will blend offensive goals, such as boosting exports in services, textiles and pharmaceuticals, with defensive tactics like protecting agriculture from liberalization, while pursuing free trade agreements that secure market access for key industries, safeguard domestic interests and selectively resist stronger intellectual property protections.
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India
Economics
Global Trade
Politics
Situation ReportApr 16, 2025 | 16:47 GMT
India: Senior Opposition Leaders Accused of Money Laundering
India's Enforcement Directorate filed a money laundering case against senior leaders of the main opposition Indian National Congress party, including Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi, for allegedly using a shell company to illegally acquire assets worth $300 million from the publisher of the National Herald newspaper, Reuters reported on April 15.
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India
Politics
AssessmentsApr 10, 2025 | 21:31 GMT
Pedestrians walk past a broadcast screen of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) in Mumbai on April 3, 2025, airing news of U.S. President Donald Trump unveiling sweeping new trade tariffs.
For India, High U.S. Tariffs Offer a Mixed Bag
If implemented, U.S. President Donald Trump's 27% tariff on India would severely hurt certain Indian sectors reliant on the U.S. market, such as pharmaceuticals; however, other sectors, such as textiles, could benefit if India's main Asian competitors end up facing even higher U.S. tariffs. On April 2, Trump announced plans to impose sweeping ''reciprocal'' tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners, including a 27% tariff on India. In justifying the move, the Trump administration cited India's unfair trade practices, pointing to longstanding barriers faced by U.S. exporters, as well as the South Asian country's $46 billion trade surplus with the United States. The announcement came despite India's recent efforts to address such grievances, which began in February after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with Trump in Washington and agreed to initiate trade negotiations. Since then, India has pledged to increase its purchases of U.S. energy exports to $25 billion, up
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United States
India
Economics
Global Trade
Politics
AssessmentsApr 8, 2025 | 20:59 GMT
Vietnamese garment workers stitch apparel at a factory in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, on April 3, 2025, after U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping new tariffs on trading partners.
Trump's Tariffs Pose a Structural Threat to Vietnam's Economy
New U.S. tariffs on Vietnam present a severe threat to the Southeast Asian nation's export-based economy, creating substantial risks that could compel a strategic drift toward China. On April 2, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a sweeping 46% tariff on all U.S. imports from Vietnam, effective April 9, under the White House's new Reciprocal Tariff Program. Vietnam was among the hardest-hit countries in the announcement. The move triggered a rapid, high-level response in Hanoi. On April 4, General Secretary To Lam, the country's de facto top leader, held a direct phone call with Trump during which he offered to eliminate all Vietnamese tariffs on U.S. imports, with Lam urging Trump to adopt a reciprocal approach. Vietnam has also resorted to behind-the-scenes engagement with U.S. stakeholders and key third-party intermediaries, including Japan, South Korea and U.S. industry groups like the American Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam.
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United States
China
Vietnam
Economics
Global Trade
Politics
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