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AssessmentsFeb 28, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
This photo shows the Guyanese flag.
The High Stakes of Guyana's Elections
Rarely do a country's elections matter as much for its future political balance of power as the March 2 ballot will for Guyana. The national balloting comes just 11 days after Guyana exported its first cargo of oil abroad, marking the beginning of a significant economic windfall to come as the country becomes the world's latest to join the oil production club. In the coming years, an oil boom will make Guyana one of the wealthiest countries in South America. The winner of the national elections will then have the chance to cement its political legacy through the kinds of economic patronage that come with increased wealth for the government.
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Guyana
United States
Venezuela
Energy
A Crude Recovery
SnapshotsJan 29, 2019 | 02:47 GMT
Venezuela: The U.S. Raises the Stakes for Maduro With Oil Sanctions
On Jan. 28, the United States Treasury Department enacted heavier sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector. The intent of the sanctions is to force political and military elites in the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) to recognize head of the National Assembly Juan Guaido as interim president of the country. The sanctions bar people and companies subject to U.S. jurisdiction from doing business with state energy company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) or investing and operating in the country's oil sector. The sanctions, similar to those imposed in November 2018 on the sale and purchase of Venezuelan-mined gold, will significantly complicate PDVSA's ability to operate. The Treasury Department also increased sanctions pressure by trying to divert revenue from PDVSA's refining arm, Citgo, to the opposition. Citgo is a private company that imports and refines Venezuelan oil in the United States. It will continue to operate in the United States as long
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Venezuela
Energy
SnapshotsJan 23, 2019 | 20:57 GMT
Venezuela: International Recognition of a Challenger Turns Up the Heat on Maduro
The challenges for Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro are growing by the day. On Jan. 23, U.S. President Donald Trump, seven Latin American states and Canada recognized Juan Guaido, the head of the opposition-controlled Venezuelan congress, as the country's legitimate president. Guaido declared himself the legitimate president earlier in the month, justifying his claim on the grounds that Maduro won his second term in a fraudulent election. Upping the stakes, Guaido has also offered an amnesty to any members of the military -- whose loyalty is key to the government retaining power -- who rebel against Maduro.
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Canada
United States
Venezuela
ReflectionsApr 6, 2018 | 16:18 GMT
In the streets of Caracas, a girl plays near a Venezuelan flag in July 2017.
U.S. Negotiations With Venezuela: A Choice Between Bad and Worse
An answer to the pressing question of what to do about Venezuela may be starting to take shape. U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions traveled to Venezuela for an unannounced meeting with President Nicolas Maduro on April 5. The day before, Sen. Dick Durbin quietly met with unspecified members of the Venezuelan government and opposition on a trip to the country. A former U.S. official -- a Cuba expert in President George W. Bush's administration who had previously negotiated with Venezuelan officials in the wake of an attempted coup in 2002 -- visited Venezuela to meet with Maduro in February. The same month, the governor of Carabobo state, a close confidant of Maduro, came to the United States and delivered a message to U.S. lawmakers that Venezuela was willing to discuss freeing Joshua Holt, a U.S. citizen in its custody. The reason for the series of meetings is clear: Caracas is trying
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Venezuela
The U.S. and the Balance of Power
AssessmentsJan 25, 2018 | 14:55 GMT
A collective in a hilltop shantytown in Caracas created its own currency, the panal, to fight chronic shortages of cash in inflation-ridden Venezuela.
For Venezuela, There's a Little Light at the End of the Tunnel
After the turn of the millennium, Venezuela enjoyed a windfall thanks to high oil prices that bankrolled massive public spending. Fast-forward a decade, however, and the situation is bleak: An insolvent central government and high inflation are impoverishing a whole generation of Venezuelans. The current situation will likely force any new administration to attempt major structural reforms to stabilize the economy over the next decade, beyond the current stopgap measures of slashing imports and printing more bolivars. In the short term, the overriding political question centers on whether embattled President Nicolas Maduro will step aside to allow others to begin addressing the crisis. But even after any immediate solution to Venezuela's political impasse, the country's leaders will face the difficult task of fixing a broken economy. Venezuela's leaders may succeed in taming inflation within the decade, but they are likely to bequeath a country that is deprived of much of its
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Venezuela
SnapshotsDec 1, 2017 | 21:48 GMT
Venezuela: Political Elites Won't Accept Defeats
Venezuela's neighbors, particularly Mexico, are seeking a negotiated solution to the country's political standoff. For almost two years, Venezuela's government has refused to recognize the authority of the opposition-controlled legislature. In an effort to resolve this, Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray will participate in talks between Venezuela's ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) and the legislature on Dec. 1-2. For right-leaning Latin American nations -- including Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Paraguay and Peru -- finding a peaceful solution to Venezuela's political confrontation is a priority. The interested nations are also, by extension, advancing the aims of the United States, which is hoping to guide the Venezuelan crisis toward a resolution that doesn't involve a dictatorship of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
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Cuba
Mexico
United States
Venezuela
The U.S. and the Balance of Power
SnapshotsOct 16, 2017 | 20:34 GMT
Venezuela: The Opposition's Last Hope for Change
The United States may eventually regard it as illegitimate, but Venezuela's ruling party managed to retain governorships in most of the country's 23 states that held elections on Oct. 15. Although the opposition coalition, the Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD), made gains in some regions -- such as Anzoategui, Nueva Esparta, Tachira, Merida and Zulia -- the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) conclusively kept its majority hold over the country's governorships. The opposition's greatest hope for change now is for the U.S. government to deem the results as illegitimate and to implement heavier sanctions against the Venezuelan government or state energy firm Petroleos de Venezuela.
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United States
Venezuela
The U.S. and the Balance of Power
Quarterly ForecastsOct 2, 2017 | 07:58 GMT
An emerging nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula will rise to the top of the United States' agenda this quarter, reducing the priority of less pressing issues as Washington works furiously to avoid -- and prepare for -- the worst.
2017 Fourth-Quarter Forecast
An emerging nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula will rise to the top of the United States' agenda this quarter, reducing the priority of less pressing issues as Washington works furiously to avoid -- and prepare for -- the worst. As the White House's gaze remains fixed on Pyongyang's arsenal, Europe, Japan and China will turn their attention inward to wrestle with important questions about their political futures.
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SnapshotsAug 25, 2017 | 22:08 GMT
Venezuela: U.S. Oil Sanctions Add Fuel to the Fire
The United States is going after Venezuela's state-run energy company. On Aug. 25, the White House directed the Treasury Department to ban U.S. individuals and companies from financial transactions that create new debt with the Venezuelan government or Venezuelan state energy company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). This new U.S. measure increases pressure on Venezuela to discourage the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) from fashioning the country into a one-party state.
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United States
Venezuela
China
Russia
Energy
Commodities: A Cautionary Tale
SnapshotsJul 31, 2017 | 17:39 GMT
The results are in. Venezuela's National Electoral Council announced July 31 that the voter turnout in support of the new constituent assembly reached 8.1 million votes, while the opposition claimed that only 2.5 million people voted.
Venezuela: Ruling Party Cements Hold on Power Through Election
The results are in. Venezuela's National Electoral Council announced July 31 that the voter turnout in support of the new constituent assembly reached 8.1 million votes, while the opposition claimed that only 2.5 million people voted. The government's claim, however, is likely untrue. After all, the 2012 presidential elections of former President Hugo Chavez, when the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) was still popular, received over 8 million votes. Still, allies of the PSUV managed to win all 545 seats in the new legislative body on July 30, despite violent confrontations between government forces and opposition protesters. Among the elected representatives for the new constituent assembly are former head of Congress Diosdado Cabello, former Vice President Aristobulo Isturiz and former Foreign Minister Delcy Rodriguez.
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Venezuela
AssessmentsJul 28, 2017 | 09:00 GMT
Opponents of Venezuela's constitutional assembly rally in Caracas after a symbolic vote against the measure. The vote to authorize the body that will rewrite the country's constitution will be held July 30.
Venezuela, U.S. Sanctions and the Downward Spiral
Venezuela's political and economic crises may soon go from bad to drastically worse. Within weeks, the U.S. government could implement sanctions against Venezuela's vital oil sector to prevent the government in Caracas from formally starting down the path to a one-party state. In their most severe form, the sanctions would wreck Venezuela's ability to export oil to the United States by denying the state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) access to the U.S. financial system. And U.S. companies would also be barred from doing business with the PDVSA. That would lead to a quick and steep drop in Venezuela's already declining oil production. In turn, imports would contract sharply and inflation would skyrocket, spurring the mass migration of millions of Venezuelans. But the United States could also resort to lesser sanctions limited at targeting individuals in the Venezuelan government. Either way, the unrest in Venezuela will continue.
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Colombia
Cuba
United States
Venezuela
Energy
Quarterly ForecastsJun 26, 2017 | 13:54 GMT
The United States will maintain its security alliances abroad, but it will also generate enough uncertainty to drive its partners toward unilateral action in managing their own neighborhoods.
2017 Third-Quarter Forecast
Federal investigations and budget battles with Congress will make for another distracting quarter for U.S. President Donald Trump. But these disruptions won't mitigate the White House's rhetoric, or broader speculation that the United States is retreating from the global stage. And though mixed messages from the U.S. administration won’t result in Washington abandoning its traditional allies, they will spur more unilateral action by U.S. partners in the Middle East, Europe and Asia.
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AssessmentsJun 13, 2017 | 22:31 GMT
Venezuela's Ruling Party Faces Rebellion From Within
Venezuela's Ruling Party Faces Rebellion From Within
Over the past two years, Venezuela has sunk into a deep economic crisis brought on by a decline in oil prices, and its reverberating effects have left the country's ruling party desperate. In an environment where regular protests and widespread disapproval have become the norm, President Nicolas Maduro's administration is clinging to power despite the increasing likelihood that it will lose the next presidential election. Now, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) has begun coalescing into opposing factions, and how its struggle plays out will determine just how long the administration is able to protect its rule.
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Venezuela
Politics
Military & Security
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