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Situation ReportNov 12, 2020 | 19:22 GMT
Libya: Rivals Agree to Hold Elections in 18 months
U.N.-led peace talks between Libya’s rivals have yielded a preliminary agreement on a roadmap to hold “free, fair, inclusive and credible” presidential and parliamentary elections in the country within 18 months, Reuters reported Nov. 11. 
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Libya
AssessmentsNov 3, 2020 | 19:01 GMT
Representatives of Libya's rival administrations take part in a meeting in Temara, Morocco, on Oct. 6, 2020.
The Promise and Peril of Libya’s New Cease-Fire
The launch of political negotiations under Libya’s new permanent cease-fire will create space to reduce hostilities between the country’s warring factions. But addressing the fractured political, economic and security dynamics of Libya’s ongoing civil war will remain significant obstacles to a comprehensive settlement and lasting peace. The longevity of the Oct. 23 cease-fire will largely depend on the progress and pace of those negotiations. Should they result in an outcome that goes against his political fortunes, Khalifa Hifter and his Libyan National Army (LNA) are likely to return to a coercive strategy in negotiations and may potentially disrupt them altogether.
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Libya
Military & Security
Military & Security
Rebalancing Power in the Middle East
AssessmentsJul 24, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
Fighters aligned with Libya's internationally-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) patrol a village located halfway between Tripoli and Benghazi on July 20, 2020.
Egypt Readies to Intervene in Libya as Hifter Struggles
In response to movements from the Turkish-backed Government of National Accord (GNA), Egypt will likely launch a military intervention in eastern Libya, using tribal ties to gain public support for or the deployment to secure Egypt's western borders. While Egypt will seek to avoid engaging in direct combat with rival Turkish forces in the region, its presence on the ground will raise the risk of a wider confrontation that draws Cairo deeper into Libya's increasingly insoluble civil war. 
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Turkey
Egypt
Libya
Rebalancing Power in the Middle East
SnapshotsJul 6, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A Proposed Oil Redistribution Plan Risks Further Fracturing Libya
Potential changes to the way oil revenue and exports are shared and distributed in Libya could have significant ramifications for the country's sovereignty and ongoing civil war by establishing de facto splits in Libya's financial system. In a June 29 statement, Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) said that it was “hopeful” that a deal could be reached in its negotiations with the country's internationally-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) and other regional countries. The NOC also announced on July 1 that it had told workers to prepare to resume work at oil fields soon. Led by France, the United States, the United Nations and Egypt, these negotiations have centered on directly splitting oil revenue between Libya's three regions of Cyrenaica, Fezzan and Tripolitania. This new system would, in turn, bypass the country's Tripoli-based Central Bank of Libya (CBL), which is where Libya's oil revenue is currently deposited. 
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United States
France
United Kingdom
Turkey
Egypt
Libya
Rebalancing Power in the Middle East
SnapshotsJun 10, 2020 | 09:00 GMT
Libya's Government of National Accord Rejects an Egyptian Cease-fire
In Libya, the Government of National Accord has rejected an Egyptian proposal for a cease-fire with the rival Libyan National Army and instead appears to be pushing farther east. But if the GNA succeeds in pushing deep into central and eastern Libya, it risks prompting the LNA's main foreign backers -- Egypt, Russia and the United Arab Emirates -- into deepening their involvement in the war-torn North African country.
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Russia
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
Egypt
Libya
AssessmentsJun 1, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A satellite image shows the arrival of Russian fighter jets at an air base in Libya controlled by Khalifa Hifter's rebel army.
Russia Deepens Its Commitment to Libya’s War -- and Political Future
Russia's deepening support for the Libyan National Army (LNA) proves the Kremlin views LNA leader Khalifa Hifter as crucial to its greater North African and Mediterranean strategy, and could grant Moscow the upper hand in shaping the war-torn country's political future. The U.S. military, among others, recently released photos confirming the arrival of a fleet of Russian fighter jets at two LNA-controlled air bases in Libya. The deployment will make it more difficult for the U.N.-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) to make further military gains beyond Tripolitania. But perhaps most importantly, Russia's growing involvement in Libya's civil war -- alongside Turkey's continued support for the GNA -- will leave Moscow and Ankara at the helm of any potential negotiations between Eastern and Western Libya, much to the dismay of those in Europe and the United States. 
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United States
Russia
Syria
Turkey
Libya
AssessmentsApr 24, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
Fighters loyal to the U.N.-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) celebrate in Sabratha, Libya, after seizing the coastal city from Khalifa Hifter’s rebel troops on April 13, 2020. 
Turkey’s Gains in Libya Will Feed Hifter’s Fire
Turkey’s investment into Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) may be paying off as the GNA and its allies have begun to make limited gains on the battlefield against Khalifa Hifter’s Libyan National Army (LNA). After securing full control along the coastal highway between Tripoli and Tunisia earlier this month, the GNA recently launched an offensive against the strategic town of Tarhuna, which is crucial for the Hifter’s supply chains to maintain his offensive on Tripoli. With Ankara’s help, the GNA will likely continue to have some success against Hifter’s allies. But by strengthening the resolve of his foreign backers, these advances will ultimately lead to an increase in the eastern leader and his army’s capabilities. Armed with added support from countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, Hifter will be well-positioned to continue his year-long offensive, prolonging Libya's civil war. 
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Russia
Jordan
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
Libya
Military & Security
Situation ReportFeb 19, 2020 | 14:01 GMT
Libya: GNA Suspends Participation in Peace Talks
Libya's Government of National Accord (GNA) has suspended its involvement in U.N.-hosted peace talks after the Libyan National Army (LNA) targeted the port of Tripoli with artillery fire, Reuters reported Feb. 19.
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Libya
Situation ReportFeb 4, 2020 | 19:49 GMT
Libya: U.N.-Led Cease-fire Talks Begin in Geneva
U.N.-brokered talks to reach a more permanent cease-fire between Field Marshal Khalifa Hifter's Libyan National Army (LNA) and Libya's internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) have begun in Geneva, Reuters reported Feb. 4.
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Libya
AssessmentsJan 22, 2020 | 09:00 GMT
Smoke billows after an attack by Libyan National Army leader Khalifa Hifter on Tripoli on Jan. 19, 2019.
In Libya, Hifter Plays the Oil Card
Just hours before global powers kicked off a Jan. 19 conference in Berlin to discuss ways to end Libya's conflict, one of the war's major parties, the Libyan National Army, made a major announcement: It was closing the country's five oil export terminals in eastern Libya. Not long after, the LNA shut off a key pipeline connecting Libya's two main oil fields in western Libya to ports. If the closures continue, they could torpedo Libya's oil production from approximately 1.15 million barrels per day to less than 75,000 b/d. At the end of the day, the LNA and its leader, Field Marshal Khalifa Hifter, are likely to come under enough pressure that they will bring the country's production back online. More crucially for Libya, however, the merely modest progress at the Berlin peace conference shows that the country remains months away from any meaningful political solution to its civil war.
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Libya
Energy
Energy
A Crude Recovery
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