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AssessmentsFeb 26, 2025 | 21:08 GMT
Syrian Kurds wave independence-era flags in support of the U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces on Dec. 19, 2024, in the northeastern Syrian city of Qamishli.
Hints Emerge of a Turkish-Kurdish Thaw
Recent developments in Turkey and Syria suggest that Kurdish militants for the first time in a decade are moving toward a peace process with Turkey. If successful, this would increase the probability of Turkish constitutional reform needed to give President Recep Tayyip Erdogan another term, while its failure could presage a resumption of regionwide violence.
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Iraq
Syria
Turkey
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJul 25, 2024 | 17:23 GMT
Turkish and Syrian flags wave above Syria's al-Salameh border crossing with Turkey on Aug. 27, 2023.
Evaluating the Prospects of Turkey-Syria Normalization
Turkey and Syria will make progress toward restoring their diplomatic and economic ties in the near term, but competing security imperatives will make full-scale normalization difficult, leaving lingering tensions between the two countries that might flare into violence. Turkey and Syria are showing a willingness to reestablish diplomatic relations, indicating they will soon join the broader regional trend of normalizing ties in the wake of Syria's civil war. On July 7, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey might soon extend an invitation to Syrian President Bashar al Assad to visit Turkey, which would be the first such visit since the civil war began in 2011, during which Turkey supported rebels set on overthrowing al Assad's government. Erdogan emphasized that such a visit would have wider aims and that Turkey hoped to restore ties with Syria to levels seen before the war. Meanwhile, al Assad said on July 15 that
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Syria
Turkey
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJul 21, 2023 | 14:32 GMT
A 3D map of Turkey with a flag embedded into the planet's surface during sunrise.
The Modern Geopolitics of Turkey
Turkey is a classic geopolitical middle power. It’s not strong enough to unilaterally impose its policies, but not weak enough to be forced into the orbit of another great power. This middle power status is rooted in its geographic position between Europe and Asia, which affords Turkey great economic opportunities and knowledge transfers, but also exposes it to security threats by placing it between numerous powerful countries and potential invaders.
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Turkey
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 19, 2018 | 09:00 GMT
Military police members of the Kurdish People's Protection Units march in al-Muabbadah in northern Syria on Feb. 24, 2018.
Can Syria's Kurds Hold the Ground They've Gained?
The tyranny of the map haunts Syria's Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). Turkey's offensive in Afrin, the northwestern canton largely controlled by the YPG, is reminding Syria's Kurds that their journey to independence, or even autonomy, must always go beneath the geographic shadows cast by Turkey to the north and Damascus to the south.
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Syria
Turkey
Partner PerspectivesJan 28, 2018 | 14:24 GMT
Turkish tanks and troops wait along the Syrian border Jan. 25, 2018, during Operation Olive Branch, an incursion into Afrin canton.
What's Next for Turkey, the U.S. and the YPG After the Afrin Operation?
Turkey's decision to conduct a full-scale military incursion into Afrin, Syria --involving airstrikes and ground forces -- should not come as a surprise. For the past three years of the campaign to defeat ISIS, the United States has increasingly turned to Syria's Kurds and their most dominant political and fighting force, the People's Protection Unit (YPG). But the YPG is the sister organization of Turkey's Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has fought the Turkish state for more than four decades and has capitalized on the civil war to establish its own, self-governed autonomous region in the northeast of Syria known as Rojava (Syrian Kurdistan).
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United States
Syria
Turkey
SnapshotsSep 22, 2017 | 17:42 GMT
Syria: Kurdish Group Takes First Small Step Toward Autonomy
Syria's Kurds are taking the first of three steps that are needed to formalize a governing structure for Syrian Kurdistan, which according to one of the region's dominant political groups, the Rojava Federal Council, stretches across the Afrin, Jazira and Euphrates regions of Syria. On Sept. 22, Kurds in northern Syria, living in territory known as Rojava, are voting for communal representatives in 3,700 communes. The leaders elected will then be included in another vote in November to create local councils and one in January to create a parliament.
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Iraq
Syria
Turkey
Politics
Rebalancing Power in the Middle East
Partner PerspectivesMay 20, 2017 | 00:30 GMT
Iran’s Complicated but Resistible Influence in Syria
Iran and its Shiite militia proxies will ultimately shape the future of the Syrian state and society—including its governing and security structures, economic environment (which will determine the beneficiaries of the estimated $200 billion needed to reconstruct the country), and its foreign relations. What can the United States realistically do to counter Iranian influence in Syria?
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Quarterly ForecastsApr 10, 2017 | 11:42 GMT
Trade will be at the forefront of many leaders' minds this quarter.
2017 Second-Quarter Forecast
Trade will be at the forefront of many leaders' minds this quarter as a new U.S. administration settles into the White House. Uncertainty surrounding the White House's intentions will linger, prompting the United States' biggest trade partners to look for new economic relationships elsewhere. Some will leverage security cooperation and promises of investment to get on Washington's good side -- or, at the very least, to try to fend off its punitive action.
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AssessmentsJun 2, 2016 | 15:16 GMT
A Kurdish fighter inspects a prison in the northeastern Syrian city of Qamishli on April 22. The Kurds are playing a central role in the Syrian conflict as Russia, the United States and Turkey try to use the minority group to meet their own goals.
Syria's Kurds Are a Means to Others' Ends
In the zone of conflict spreading across Syria, Iraq and Turkey, the Kurds are once again at the center of attention. In spite of Moscow's ties to the al Assad government, Russia has been cultivating connections with numerous Kurdish factions and, possibly, supplying them with arms. The United States has also been providing air support for several of the same factions for some time. Russian and U.S. assistance for these groups has, in turn, worried Turkey, which is concerned about the calls for autonomy coming from its own Kurdish minority. As the three powers continue to try to use the Kurds for their own ends, the embattled minority group will try to play them off of one another to further its own goals.
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United States
Russia
Iraq
Syria
Turkey
Military & Security
Politics
Military & Security
AssessmentsMay 23, 2016 | 09:15 GMT
It has been said that the Kurds are a nation without borders at the crossroads of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran, though that is only partly true. Citizenship is not always so simple a matter.
A Brief Guide to Understanding the Kurds
It has been said that the Kurds are a nation without borders, though that is only partly true. They are, of course, citizens of any number of countries, ones that envelop their homeland in the Middle East and ones much farther afield. But for the Kurds -- a nation of some 25 million people who, despite their shared culture, speak different languages, practice different religions, subscribe to different political ideologies and hold different passports -- citizenship is not such a simple matter. It would be more accurate to say that Kurds, having assimilated into countries they do not consider their own, tend to be citizens in name but not in practice. And they are subject, therefore, to discrimination and outright oppression.
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Iran
Iraq
Syria
Turkey
Politics
Military & Security
Rebalancing Power in the Middle East
ReflectionsMar 16, 2016 | 21:58 GMT
For Syria's Kurds, Gaining Ground Is Only Half the Battle
Syrian Kurds are coming to grips with the fact that victory on the battlefield does not always translate into political gain. Locked out of the Geneva talks, sensing the weakness of President Bashar al Assad's government as the Russians withdraw, and keen to pre-empt further Turkish moves, the Syrian Kurds are headed toward enshrining their significant control over parts of northern Syria. But gaining legitimacy remains a very tall order.
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Russia
Syria
Turkey
Military & Security
Politics
Military & Security
On GeopoliticsFeb 16, 2016 | 08:01 GMT
The realpolitik side of Russia will content itself with partial results, and those results may show themselves on the battlefield in Syria, in eastern Ukraine or -- should negotiations fail -- not at all.
Ruthless and Sober in Syria
The realpolitik side of the Kremlin will content itself with partial results, and those results may show themselves on the Syrian battlefield, in eastern Ukraine or -- should negotiations fail -- not at all. In case of the latter, the next phase of crisis that results will extend well beyond the besieged city of Aleppo.
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United States
Ukraine
Russia
Syria
Turkey
Military & Security
Politics
Military & Security
The U.S. and the Balance of Power
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