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AssessmentsJan 29, 2025 | 19:59 GMT
Demonstrators march in central Belgrade, Serbia, on Jan. 24, 2025, as part of a general strike over the fatal collapse of a train station roof in Novi Sad in November.
In Serbia, Mounting Anti-Government Protests Threaten President Vucic's Rule
In Serbia, the prime minister's resignation will not quell escalating anti-government protests, increasing the likelihood of early elections and posing a serious challenge to President Aleksandar Vucic's rule if the opposition can overcome divisions; in an even more escalatory scenario, Vucic could escalate tensions with neighboring Kosovo in a bid to deflect domestic pressure, heightening the risk of regional instability and ethnic violence. On Jan. 28, Serbian Prime Minister Milos Vucevic resigned amid ongoing mass protests over the recent deadly collapse of a railway station roof in Novi Sad, Serbia's second-largest city, which demonstrators have blamed on government corruption. Initially student-led, the protests have since expanded, drawing in broader segments of society. On Jan. 27, farmers joined the rallies and blocked streets in Belgrade and other cities, further increasing pressure on the government. Vucevic, a close ally of President Aleksandar Vucic, had served as the mayor of Novi Sad when
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Serbia
Kosovo
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsSep 27, 2024 | 17:00 GMT
Authorities search a building in Mitrovica, northern Kosovo, on Sept. 29, 2023, after the killing of a police officer.
For Serbia and Kosovo, Stalled EU Membership Bids Will Disincentivize Reconciliation
With the prospect of EU membership frozen for both countries, Serbia and Kosovo will be incentivized to escalate bilateral tensions in the coming months, which will increase the risk of security incidents in Kosovo, even if a full-on war remains highly unlikely. On Sept. 24, Kosovo's Prime Minister Albin Kurti demanded that Serbia's government hand over several Serbians who were allegedly involved in the killing of a Kosovar police officer a year ago. Kurti also accused Serbia of trying to annex parts of Kosovo and called on the international community to hold Serbia accountable for its aggressive behavior. Separately, in an interview with the Financial Times also published on Sept. 24, Kurti said that Kosovo will resist pressure from the international community to compromise with Serbia on the multiple issues that have fueled tensions between the two neighboring states.
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Serbia
Kosovo
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsNov 21, 2023 | 20:27 GMT
NATO peacekeepers stand guard as hospital employees lead a protest march of ethnic Serbs in northern Kosovo on June 19, 2023.
The Threat of Russian Influence Operations in Serbia and Kosovo
Russian influence operations are fomenting EU accession fatigue and anti-Western narratives in Serbia and raising risks of violence in Kosovo, further disrupting the normalization process between Belgrade and Pristina, while fanning ethnic tensions in the wider Balkans region. Against the backdrop of ongoing EU accession negotiations, including normalization talks between Serbia and Kosovo, and following outbreaks of violence in northern Kosovo in September, Russian actors will likely pursue an opportunity to further inflame tensions to distract from Ukraine and contribute to destabilization risks in the Balkans. Russian influence operations in Serbia largely consist of narratives aimed at fueling ethnic and religious tensions between the country and its Balkan neighbors, discrediting the European Union and West more broadly, and promoting Russian views on key issues like the Ukraine war. Particularly in recent months, many popular narratives from Russian sources involve Serbia's claim over Kosovo, whose independence it has not recognized despite
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Serbia
Kosovo
Russia
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsOct 4, 2023 | 19:11 GMT
NATO soldiers serving in Kosovo patrol next to a road barricade set up by ethnic Serbs near the town of Zubin Potok on Aug. 1, 2022.
Are Serbia and Kosovo Headed for Another War?
Serbia's recent military deployment along the border with Kosovo does not presage an imminent invasion, but the two countries' latest flare-up in tensions will undermine an EU-brokered normalization plan and raises the risk of further violent incidents in northern Kosovo in the coming weeks. On Oct. 3, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby confirmed that the United States had seen Serbian forces start to pull back from the border with Kosovo. The statement comes after Kirby on Sept. 29 revealed an ''unprecedented'' deployment of Serbian troops along the border and announced that NATO would be deploying more peacekeepers in northern Kosovo to deter a possible invasion. In the intervening days, following U.S. and EU pressure, Serbian officials stated that they had withdrawn some of the troops their country had stationed near the border, taking the overall number from 8,350 down to 4,500 forces. In an Oct. 2 interview
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Serbia
Kosovo
Military & Security
SnapshotsMar 1, 2023 | 20:41 GMT
People walk past a mural reading ''Republic of Kosova'' in Pristina on Feb. 27, 2023, as the European Union hosts talks between the rival leaders of Kosovo and Serbia.
The Promise and Potential Pitfalls of the EU-Sponsored Pact Between Serbia and Kosovo
An EU-brokered normalization deal between Kosovo and Serbia marks a key first step in resolving a simmering conflict that has threatened to return the Balkans to war. But significant constraints remain toward a legally binding comprehensive agreement. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti agreed on Feb. 27 to an EU-sponsored deal to normalize the relations between the two Balkan neighbors during a meeting in Brussels. Under the 11-point plan, Serbia and Kosovo are required to ''develop normal, good-neighborly relations with each other on the basis of equal rights.'' Neither party has to formally recognize the other as a state, but both have to respect the territorial integrity of the other, refrain from any action that would renew tensions on the ground and exchange permanent missions in each other's capitals. While Serbia does not have to formally recognize Kosovo as an independent state, it will recognize Kosovo's
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Europe
Serbia
Kosovo
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsDec 12, 2022 | 21:53 GMT
NATO soldiers patrol a road near the town of Zvecan in northern Kosovo on Oct. 12, 2022.
Escalating Unrest in North Kosovo Does Not Portend a Return to War
Despite recent border clashes and escalating threats between Serbia and Kosovo, a widespread outbreak of ethnic violence remains unlikely in north Kosovo due to the large presence of NATO peacekeepers in the region and Western diplomatic pressure. On Dec. 10-11, tensions flared in north Kosovo as hundreds of ethnic Serbs erected roadblocks using heavy machinery at two border crossings with Serbia, obstructing traffic in the Zvecan and Leposavic areas. The Serbs exchanged gunfire with the Kosovar police near the Brnjak checkpoint, while EULEX -- the European Union mission tasked with patrolling northern Kosovo -- confirmed that an unidentified individual also threw a stun grenade at one of its armored vehicles. Kosovar authorities said two Serbs were arrested for attacking police officers. But no injuries have been reported following the incidents, which marked the worst escalation of ethnic violence in Kosovo since 2004. In response to the latest flare-up, Serbian President
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Serbia
Kosovo
Military & Security
Politics
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