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AssessmentsMay 22, 2020 | 20:20 GMT
An anti-extradition bill protest in Hong Kong on June 12, 2019.
Mainland China's Imposition of Security Laws In Hong Kong Will Spark Protests
The Chinese central government's decision to circumvent the Hong Kong legislature and impose long-delayed national security laws in Hong Kong will provide a major rallying point as protests rebound following COVID-19. In terms of U.S.-China relations, an uptick in demonstrations and the high-profile erosion of Hong Kong's autonomy will provide another trigger that could derail the phase one trade deal, although the White House will be careful not to subordinate its China policy to a single issue such as Hong Kong.
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On GeopoliticsOct 10, 2019 | 09:00 GMT
This photo shows riot police in Hong Kong standing guard outside a police station on Oct. 7, 2019.
In Hong Kong, Beijing Will Choose Chinese Sovereignty
Whatever the outcome of the current protests, Hong Kong will not return to "normal." No political compromise will satisfy both sides. At its core, the protest movement in Hong Kong is about self-determination: the right of Hong Kong to choose its own laws and leadership -- and thus its own path. This view is anathema to Beijing's core interest in national unity and eventual complete unification. Hong Kong's unique status will either continue to erode, removing once and for all the fiction of "one country, two systems," or Hong Kong will break politically from the mainland, fracturing China's 70-year drive to reconstitute the nation. The odds are stacked against that second outcome.
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SnapshotsJul 29, 2019 | 19:41 GMT
U.S.: The White House Looks to Tighten WTO Criteria for Developing Economies
U.S. President Donald Trump, a frequent critic of the World Trade Organization, has taken another shot at it, complaining that rules allowing countries to designate themselves as developing economies eligible for special consideration in trade talks and in other matters at the WTO give some, like China, an unfair economic advantage. The criticism was included in a White House memo issued July 26, in which Trump also directed the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative to "secure changes at the WTO" that would prevent countries from claiming developing status not justified by "appropriate economic and other indicators." It is unclear what way the United States has to change the WTO rules, given that Washington does not directly grant significant trade benefits to the countries that get special and differential treatment, giving it little leverage against them.
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ReflectionsApr 5, 2017 | 23:55 GMT
China's support of North Korea is likely to remain steadfast, but among policymakers in Beijing, the idea of replacing Kim Jong Un as its leader has gained adherents.
A Tough Sell on North Korea
The United States appears to be preparing for a showdown with China and the United Nations over North Korea. Over the weekend, in an interview with the Financial Times, U.S. President Donald Trump said, "China will either decide to help us with North Korea or they won't," adding, "If China is not going to solve North Korea, we will." This was an unambiguous signal to China ahead of the start of Thursday's summit between Trump and President Xi Jinping. Three weeks after the Trump-Xi meeting in Florida, the U.N. Security Council will hold a special session led by U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on North Korea and nuclear nonproliferation. Earlier this week, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, announcing Tillerson's upcoming U.N. visit and referencing the U.S.-China summit, said: "The United States has seen China for 25-plus years say that they are concerned about North Korea, but we
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On GeopoliticsDec 6, 2016 | 08:21 GMT
Taiwan Tsai Ing-wen telephone call with US President Donald Trump
Taiwan, Trump and a Telephone: How a Simple Act Called Out a Contradiction in U.S. Diplomacy
With his characteristic bluntness, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has, at least briefly, wiped away some diplomatic niceties and sent China a clear message: If Beijing wants to sit at the grown-ups' table, it will have to act like an adult. His method for doing so? A 10-minute phone call to the president of Taiwan. But passing such a message isn't as simple as it sounds. The phone call broke a 40-year diplomatic precedent, something no U.S. president or president-elect has done since Washington withdrew its recognition of Taipei in the 1970s in exchange for closer ties with Beijing. For decades, the United States has stuck to the "one-China" policy, which says that the government in Beijing is the only legal representative of China. Yet at the same time Washington maintained its lines of communication with Taiwan, including trade deals and arms sales. This dual approach is predicated on the United
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AssessmentsAug 10, 2011 | 12:02 GMT
China Security Memo: Unusual Security Deployment in Kunming
A large armed police presence in Kunming could be related to concerns about security and potential unrest. Also, authorities allowed high-profile dissident Ai Weiwei to resume activity on his Twitter account. (With STRATFOR interactive map)
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AssessmentsMar 9, 2011 | 09:53 GMT
China Security Memo: March 9, 2011
Beijing has introduced a plan to track the city's cell phone users for traffic-control purposes, but the government may have other motives as well. (With STRATFOR interactive map)
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AssessmentsFeb 23, 2011 | 20:38 GMT
New Tactics to Push Political Reforms in China
The organizer or organizers of China's "Jasmine" gatherings are employing a creative tactic in their latest call for demonstrations, one that could be problematic for Beijing to handle.
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AssessmentsJan 19, 2011 | 22:20 GMT
China Security Memo: Jan. 19, 2011
Chinese regulators of the Internet and telecommunications had a busy week, while Google Books apologized for "improper activities" related to its efforts to scan Chinese books. (With STRATFOR interactive map)
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AssessmentsOct 21, 2010 | 18:13 GMT
China Security Memo: Oct. 21, 2010
Anti-Japanese protests remained unchecked for three days in eight Chinese cities, as if Beijing decided to open a temporary outlet for nationalist sentiment.
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AssessmentsOct 7, 2010 | 21:37 GMT
China Security Memo: Oct. 7, 2010
There may be some truth to rumors of a business gambling spree in Macao, but the larger story is how the Internet rumor mill can contribute to social unrest. (With STRATFOR interactive map)
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AssessmentsJun 18, 2010 | 05:27 GMT
China: Spreading Labor Unrest
A shutdown at a Toyota affiliate is the latest in a growing number of labor strikes, part of the pressures confronting China as it tries to reshape its economy.
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AssessmentsMar 5, 2010 | 17:21 GMT
China: The State of the People's Republic
China's annual National People's Congress meeting comes at a critical juncture for Beijing, with measures being considered on anti-corruption, state secrets and the proportion of political power held by urban and rural lawmakers.
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AssessmentsMay 28, 2009 | 19:48 GMT
China Security Memo: May 28, 2009
Operating in China presents many challenges to foreign businesses. The China Security Memo tracks and summarizes key incidents throughout the country over the past week. (With STRATFOR Interactive Map)
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