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AssessmentsJul 1, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
An image depicts waving Chinese and Indian flags overlaying a map of the world.
In India, Anti-China Anger Will Bring Out Modi's Hawkish Side
A surge of anti-China sentiment among Indian lawmakers, business leaders and voters will prompt Prime Minister Narendra Modi to take a more aggressive approach against Bejing in the wake of the two countries' recent border clash. This could include a variety of actions ranging from diplomatic moves to economic and trade measures, as well as a continued military build-up against China, which will only further ratchet up tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors. 
On GeopoliticsMay 10, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A mother takes photos with her baby under cherry blossoms in full bloom in Tokyo, Japan, on March 29, 2015.
The Geopolitics of Postmodern Parenting
During the two months I recently spent away from work to fulfill my demographic duty, I found that most of my conversations with visitors followed the same pattern. The talk quickly turned from the standard cooing over my baby girl to an intensive debate over parental leave: how much time and flexibility to grant new parents in the workforce, how to reconcile career ambitions with the responsibilities of human procreation, how to compensate for the crazy cost of child care and how to boost birthrates. As a white-collar, taxpaying working mother in the United States, I had become one of the statistics I used to pore over as an analyst pondering the implications of aging and shrinking populations. But you don't have to be a parent -- or an analyst, for that matter -- to care about this stuff. In fact, a lot of the global angst today over stagnant economic
Senior Analyst for Global EconomicsJan 17, 2020 | 13:08 GMT
Michael Monderer
Michael Monderer

Michael Monderer is Stratfor’s senior analyst for global economics focusing on the intersection between macroeconomics and geopolitics. Mr. Monderer covers issues related to country and political risk, including fiscal and monetary policies, balance of payments and capital flows, international debt, and currencies and exchange rates. Before joining Stratfor he was managing director at the G7 Group, Inc. and subsequently the G20 Group, LLC.  Previously, Mr. Monderer was U.S. Treasury Department's director for international debt policy and senior advisor to the undersecretary for international affairs, roles in which he negotiated international debt restructuring agreements with more than 60 countries.

SITUATION REPORTNov 5, 2019 | 16:49 GMT
India: Opposition INC to Hold Nationwide Protests
The Indian National Congress (INC), the country's main opposition party, is planning nationwide protests from Nov. 5-15 to voice its dissatisfaction with India's cooling economic growth, unemployment and the proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade agreement, The Indian Express reported Nov. 5.
SnapshotsAug 27, 2019 | 19:07 GMT
U.S.: A Chipmaker's Patent Lawsuits Risk Upending the High-Tech Industry
Legal action taken by U.S.-based chipmaker GlobalFoundries has the potential to disrupt supply chains for manufacturers of a variety of consumer electronic devices, including heavy hitters such as Apple Inc. In multiple lawsuits filed Aug. 27 in the United States and Germany and in a complaint filed with the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC), GlobalFoundries accuses rival Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) of infringing on its patents by using its protected methods and equipment to manufacture certain types of semiconductors. It is seeking an import ban of the chips made by TSMC outside the United States using those processes and of any devices containing those chips.
AssessmentsAug 27, 2019 | 09:15 GMT
Chinese investors watch a stock ticker at a Beijing securities company on Aug. 26.
Trump Looks to Open Another Front in the Trade War With China
For much of August, the United States and China have followed a tit-for-tat pattern of tariffs as they wage their trade war, with Beijing answering the round of U.S. tariffs announced Aug. 1 by President Donald Trump with some of its own. But a bombshell announcement by Trump on Aug. 23 has the potential to change the rules of the game. With the tweet "American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China," Trump offered a glimpse of where he might take the trade fight next. Although Trump followed his stark warning only with an announcement of higher tariffs on Chinese goods, he later reiterated that the White House had the power under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to force U.S. companies to divest from China, keeping the option of an economic withdrawal on the table.
SnapshotsAug 7, 2019 | 22:08 GMT
Congo: Why the Shutdown of One Cobalt Mine Matters
British-Swiss mining powerhouse Glencore has announced that it will shut down cobalt and copper production from its Mutanda mining operation in the Katanga province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo by the end of the year. The company expects the shutdown to last at least two years, although, after that amount of time, the benefits of restarting operations could be insufficient to justify a restart. In 2018, besides about 200,000 metric tons of copper, the mine produced just over 27,000 metric tons of cobalt -- around 20 percent of total global production of the strategic metal.
SnapshotsMay 31, 2019 | 22:00 GMT
China: Beijing's Latest Trade War Salvo Takes Aim at Foreign Firms
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce on May 31 said China is creating a list of "unreliable entities" that would include foreign companies it considers damaging to the interests of Chinese firms. The list, akin to the U.S. Commerce Department's Entity List that enabled the United States to blacklist Huawei Technologies, would allow Chinese authorities to target foreign companies, organizations and individuals that they find either don't obey market rules or violate contracts, or have blocked or cut off Chinese companies from suppliers for noncommercial reasons. Neither the scope of the list nor specific measures that might be taken against those that land on it were disclosed, but the ministry said details will be announced "soon."
GraphicsMay 20, 2019 | 20:09 GMT
Google Inc.'s decision to restrict business with Huawei could further heat the U.S.-China tech and trade war
Will Rare Earths Be the Next Front in the U.S.-China Tech War?
The rise of the Chinese tech sector has helped power its rivalry with the United States. The effects of the recent White House moves to counter China's tech champions, including its most profitable foreign venture, Huawei Technologies, has already had some effects, including a move by Google parent Alphabet Inc. to halt some business with the telecommunications giant. One possible response for China would be to restrict or ban exports of the rare earth elements critical to high-tech applications. China's preeminence in the rare earths supply chain would make that a potent option; China has about a third of the world's reserves of the elements but controls a much larger portion of mining and refining operations. Rare earths are crucial for components of a variety of technologies.
Contributor PerspectivesApr 10, 2019 | 05:00 GMT
Princess Elizabeth (later Queen Elizabeth II) holds her daughter, Princess Anne, at Anne's christening in Buckingham Palace on Oct. 21, 1950. Elizabeth's grandmother, Queen Mary, left, and her mother, Queen Elizabeth are also pictured.
Finding a Moment of Royal Reassurance in a Messy World
Strategists prefer to say that modern monarchy is a form of soft power, offering an attractive national image to the world and enticing foreigners to want to like the royals' country. However, seeing Princess Anne in action last week at an event marking the centenary of City Lit, the world's largest institution of adult education, suggested that right now there is more to a British royal's job than just selling soft power. Anne was quiet, calm, reassuring and reasonable -- everything that Britain's democratic institutions currently seem not to be. The price royalty pays for staying above the fray is, admittedly, that they can say very little at all about state affairs. In these uncertain times, though, monarchy's very distance from the mudslinging is becoming its greatest strength.
On GeopoliticsApr 4, 2019 | 16:48 GMT
The convergence of a confluence of issues, both global and domestic, will converge to provide plenty of fodder for debate in the the 2020 U.S. presidential race.
The 2020 Election Marks a Global Inflection Point
You may have noticed by now that there is a strong air of existentialism surrounding the 2020 U.S. presidential campaign. Environmental policy has vaulted from being a fringe electoral issue to prompting calls for a national emergency on climate change. The "socialist" label is being bandied left and right as a way of questioning the very survival and moral legitimacy of U.S. capitalism. And foreign policy debates are raging over China's attempt to unseat the United States in a tech-fueled battle for global supremacy -- a global great power competition. These are big, whopping issues. And while they're certainly not new, they're currently being debated with fresh and unusual levels of frankness and ferocity. So, why is all this existential angst spilling over now?
AssessmentsMar 10, 2019 | 17:19 GMT
Supporters hold up flags in support of the Indian National Congress (INC) party during the launch of the party's campaign in Punjab ahead of India’s upcoming  elections.
In the Indian Elections, Voters Will Weigh Jobs Against Security
The defining event of the Indian political calendar is just weeks away. By May, over half a billion voters will choose 543 representatives to serve in India's lower house of parliament. The elections, which are the world's largest democratic exercise, will take place over several weeks, and the stakes are high: Narendra Modi, the most powerful Indian prime minister in a generation, is leading his incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) against a raft of opposition parties under the Indian National Congress (INC) banner, all unifying in a bid to dislodge him from power. In 2014, the BJP's victory marked the first single-party majority in nearly three decades. And now, the party is looking to set another precedent in Indian politics by achieving successive non-Congress majority governments. But aside from having the INC as its main opponent, the environment that handed the BJP its victory five years ago bears little resemblance
AssessmentsFeb 25, 2019 | 10:30 GMT
A Chinese worker checks wheels on Jan. 28, 2019, at a factory in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province.
China's Economic Pain Will Power Southeast Asia's Gains
As the global trade and investment landscape continues to evolve, Southeast Asia is gaining momentum as a top destination for investors seeking lower-wage manufacturing labor, high returns on their capital and infrastructural investments, and opportunities to profit from the region's sizable and fast-growing domestic markets. U.S.-China trade frictions are set to increase the manufacturing investments into the region that already are underway. The surge of investment into the region will be shared unevenly and felt disproportionately. But in the short term, Southeast Asia's emerging economies must equally contend with supply chain disruptions caused by the U.S.-China trade war, an extended slowdown in the Chinese economy, weak global demand for China's manufactured goods and their individual internal structural issues.
Contributor PerspectivesDec 12, 2018 | 15:31 GMT
Supporters cheer for Ankara Mayor Melih Gokcek, a member of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party, on April 5, 2014.
Turkey’s Next Round of Elections Are Looking Down a Familiar Path
It’s hard to imagine the outcome of Turkey’s local elections, scheduled for March 31, generating any real suspense. The result again is likely to favor the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan despite the deepening economic crisis that has enveloped Turkey. Turkey’s political elites across party lines are fixated on the elections. While the AKP is seeking alluring candidates to maintain its control of large cities such as Istanbul and Ankara, opposition parties -- particularly the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) -- are squabbling over choosing their nominees for the multiple mayoralties that will be up for grabs next spring and are not focused on devising a grand strategy to unseat the AKP from local power. Parties and elites alike covet local offices because local government administration is extremely profitable for mayors and provincial/city council members who gain prime positions to authorize public procurements
SnapshotsDec 11, 2018 | 22:06 GMT
India: Ruling Party Suffers Setbacks in State Elections
The results of five Indian state elections indicate challenges for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as it seeks to hold on to its majority in Parliament through national elections in 2019. In Rajasthan, a tradition of anti-incumbency helped propel the opposition Indian National Congress (INC) to victory over the BJP-led state government. Meanwhile, in Chhattisgarh, the INC ended 15 years of BJP rule. And while the results in Madhya Pradesh are currently too close to call, the latest figures show the INC taking 55 seats from the BJP's previously 165-seat bloc after capitalizing on the grievances of the state's nearly 10 million farmers. These three states are part of the so-called Hindi heartland, a belt of states stretching across northern India that is home to the core of the BJP's voter base.
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