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Singapore's Incoming Prime Minister Brings a Fresh Face to an Old Regime

SnapshotsApr 17, 2024 | 17:00 GMT

A photo of Singapore's Parliament building against a cityscape.

While an impending leadership change in Singapore portends short-term policy continuity, it could lead to a snap election and may signal that the ruling party's monopolistic political leadership is gradually waning. On April 15, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced that he would step down in favor of his chosen successor, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Lawrence Wong, who will become the country's fourth prime minister since 1965. The transition is set for May 15. After the transfer of authority, Wong will lead the ruling People's Action Party, or PAP, in preparation for the city-state's next general election, which is due by November 2025. Lee will serve as a senior minister in Wong's Cabinet following the handover.

Singapore

Economics

The U.S. and EU Brace for AI-Powered Election Disinformation

SnapshotsMar 15, 2024 | 18:28 GMT

Nascent U.S. and EU regulations and nonbinding private sector efforts on artificial intelligence (AI) tools will likely fail to meaningfully control the influx of AI content on social media platforms during the 2024 elections in both territories, opening the door to the proliferation of malign synthetic content. In the past several weeks, governments and technology companies have intensified their focus on the potentially negative impact of generative AI tools on election processes. On March 14, the European Commission requested information from eight major social media platforms on their efforts to mitigate risks to electoral processes linked to generative AI, including so-called ''hallucinations'' (when chatbots output false responses) and ''deepfakes'' (malign synthetic audio or visual content meant to deceive audiences). A month earlier, at the Munich Security Conference in February 2024, 20 leading technology companies, including Amazon, Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Snap, Stability AI, TikTok and X, signed a series of

Europe

The Threat of Russian Influence Operations in Serbia and Kosovo

AssessmentsNov 21, 2023 | 20:27 GMT

NATO peacekeepers stand guard as hospital employees lead a protest march of ethnic Serbs in northern Kosovo on June 19, 2023.

Russian influence operations are fomenting EU accession fatigue and anti-Western narratives in Serbia and raising risks of violence in Kosovo, further disrupting the normalization process between Belgrade and Pristina, while fanning ethnic tensions in the wider Balkans region. Against the backdrop of ongoing EU accession negotiations, including normalization talks between Serbia and Kosovo, and following outbreaks of violence in northern Kosovo in September, Russian actors will likely pursue an opportunity to further inflame tensions to distract from Ukraine and contribute to destabilization risks in the Balkans. Russian influence operations in Serbia largely consist of narratives aimed at fueling ethnic and religious tensions between the country and its Balkan neighbors, discrediting the European Union and West more broadly, and promoting Russian views on key issues like the Ukraine war. Particularly in recent months, many popular narratives from Russian sources involve Serbia's claim over Kosovo, whose independence it has not recognized despite

Situation ReportNov 6, 2023 | 17:09 GMT

Indonesia, Malaysia: Anti-Israel Boycotts Hit Big-Name Corporations

Large numbers of Indonesian and Malaysian social media users are using TikTok and Facebook to disseminate a boycott list of 121 brands supposedly affiliated with Israel, its supporters or Jewish owners, The South China Morning Post reported on Nov. 6.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Africa's Instability Creates Fertile Ground for Russian Disinformation

SnapshotsOct 17, 2023 | 21:47 GMT

Protesters in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, wave Russian and Burkinabe flags on Oct. 4, 2022.

In sub-Saharan Africa, Russia will continue to capitalize on anti-French sentiment and political instability by launching disinformation campaigns designed to increase its influence across the region. Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali and Sudan -- and, most recently, Gabon and Niger -- are among the African countries that have experienced military coups over the past two and a half years, fueling fears of a growing ''coup contagion'' across sub-Saharan Africa. Of the three Sahelian countries on this list (Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger), the coup leaders leveraged anger toward French political and military activity in the region to justify their political takeover (among other reasons) and took steps to suspend French media sites -- like Radio France International and France 24 -- from operating within their borders, thereby cutting off credible French news sites. Amid the consequent information vacuum, Russian-aligned threat actors were able to quickly and effectively launch disinformation campaigns that

Sub-Saharan Africa

Burkina Faso

Central African Republic

On SecurityJun 29, 2023 | 16:31 GMT

The director of Austria's intelligence agency (left) and the president of Vienna's state police hold a press conference on a foiled Vienna pride parade attack on June 18, 2023.

What the Foiled Vienna Pride Parade Plot Suggests About the Islamist Threat to the West

Depending on your perspective, the recently disrupted plot against Vienna's Pride Parade on June 17 – in which local Islamic State sympathizers planned to attack the LGBTQ+ celebration – is either a good example of security services doing their job well or a concerning reminder of the persistence of the Islamist terrorist threat to the West. As is often the case, there is truth in both perspectives and the incident thus provides an opportunity to reflect on the current and future state of the jihadist threat to the West. Despite major counterterrorism successes, ongoing technological developments, changing security priorities and rising threats from other extremists threaten to undo hard-won gains.

Austria

U.S.: SCOTUS Protects Section 230 in Two Seminal Rulings That Could Have Reshaped the Internet

Situation ReportMay 19, 2023 | 15:12 GMT

In two separate decisions, the U.S. Supreme Court declined to issue rulings setting a scope on Section 230 in the 1996 Communications Decency Act, which protects technology companies from being held liable for content posted by users of their platforms, CNBC reported on May 18.

Ireland: Regulatory Commission to Fine Meta, Ban Some Data Transfer

Situation ReportMay 18, 2023 | 16:49 GMT

Ireland's Data Protection Commission (DPC) is set to hand out a record-high fine to Meta Platforms for its violation of the European Union's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), Reuters reported on May 17.

Ireland

Sudan Descends Into Conflict as Army, Paramilitary Face Off

SnapshotsApr 17, 2023 | 18:27 GMT

Heavy smoke billows above buildings near the Khartoum airport on April 15, 2023, amid clashes between the army and paramilitary troops.

Clashes between the Sudanese military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) will likely persist despite international pressure for peace, and could escalate into a sustained nationwide conflict. As of April 17, ongoing clashes between the Sudanese military and RSF fighters in the capital Khartoum and surrounding areas had killed at least 97 people, according to reports on the ground. The RSF claimed that it took control of both the military intelligence building and the presidential palace, and had also stormed the residence of the head of the country's military, Abdel-Fattah Burhan, though these reports have not yet been confirmed. Residents in Khartoum have reported persistent gunfire and shelling across the capital, especially around the military headquarters near the city center. The Sudanese military said that it has conducted multiple airstrikes targeting RSF bases in the area. Some Sudanese social media accounts, however, have commented that the air force is

Sudan

The Future of the Metaverse, Part 1

AssessmentsMar 23, 2023 | 20:40 GMT

An image taken on March 25, 2022, shows the Metaverse Fashion Week hosted by the virtual world Decentraland.

The metaverse's expected growth in the coming years will create a host of new business opportunities, but its use of decentralized technologies and data will also make it very hard for governments to regulate. In recent weeks, Meta -- the U.S. tech giant formerly known as Facebook -- has de-emphasized the metaverse in company briefings and statements and is now touting its investments in generative artificial intelligence (AI). Meta's shift in tone is no surprise. Since its release in November 2022, OpenAI's chatbot ChatGPT has kicked off an arms race among tech companies over chatbots and large language models. In February, Meta unveiled LLaMA to compete with Microsoft-backed ChatGPT and Google's Bard AI. Meanwhile, slowing economic conditions and the U.S. Federal Reserve's attempts to curb stubbornly high inflation by hiking interest rates have started to weigh on U.S. companies' bottom lines. This has seen a growing number of U.S. firms

The Rise of ChatGPT and the Future of White-Collar Jobs

On GeopoliticsMar 2, 2023 | 22:20 GMT

A hand holds a virtual circuitry-inspired display that represents ChatGPT.

Since its release on Nov. 30, 2022, an artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot called ChatGPT has taken the world by storm with its ability to provide in-depth answers to a variety of questions and seemingly hold meaningful conversations. ChatGPT's resounding success has pushed U.S. software and internet services company Microsoft to expand investment in the technology's developer, U.S. AI research and deployment company OpenAI, as well as integrate the chatbot with its Bing search engine. Since then, U.S. technology company Google, Chinese internet company Baidu and U.S. social media platform Facebook have accelerated their own plans to develop chatbots and other generative AI tools, lest they be left behind.

China: Suspected State-Linked Information Campaign Uses AI-Generated Fictitious People in Videos

Situation ReportFeb 7, 2023 | 15:42 GMT

Suspected Chinese threat actors are using artificial intelligence (AI) tools to generate videos of fake news media outlets, complete with AI-generated news anchors using English language voiceovers, social media analytics firm Graphika said in a report published Feb. 7.

China

What to Expect as U.S. States Begin Enforcing Data Privacy Laws

AssessmentsJan 19, 2023 | 18:28 GMT

A photo taken on April 26, 2022, shows the sign outside a Google office in San Francisco, California.

Five U.S. states will begin enforcing new EU-styled data privacy laws in 2023, which will create more stringent data requirements for companies operating in these states, posing financial and reputational risks for companies that fail to comply. California, Colorado, Connecticut, Utah and Virginia are all slated to enact changes to their data privacy legislation later in the year and two of these states have already made the changes effective as of Jan. 1. These new laws integrate a number of modifications based on the European Union's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), a legal framework that pursues a ''rights-based approach'' to data protection and is arguably the most stringent data privacy legal framework in the world. These newly enacted and proposed state laws incorporate broader definitions for personally identifiable information (PII), stricter requirements regarding data collection and processing and certain oversight assessments to ensure improved data security practices.

U.S.: Facebook Threatens to Remove News Content From U.S. Platform Over New Law

Situation ReportDec 6, 2022 | 17:14 GMT

Facebook's parent company Meta warned that Facebook would consider removing news content from its platform in the United States if a law is passed requiring it to pay publishers for carrying their content, Reuters reported Dec. 5.

What to Expect From Disinformation Campaigns During the 2022 U.S. Midterms, Part 3

AssessmentsOct 19, 2022 | 21:00 GMT

In this photo illustration taken on April 21, 2022, the icon of the video-sharing app TikTok is pictured on a mobile phone.

In the final part of this series, we look at how the rise of both video-based platforms like TikTok and synthetic content like deepfakes is making more people vulnerable to being misinformed -- especially during election periods -- and the potential secondary risks for U.S. businesses.

What to Expect From Disinformation Campaigns During the 2022 U.S. Midterms, Part 2

AssessmentsOct 18, 2022 | 21:22 GMT

A Russian flag flies next to the U.S. Embassy building in Moscow, Russia, on March 18, 2021.

As the November 2022 U.S. midterm elections approach, state-sponsored cyber threat groups, hacktivists and cybercriminals will ramp up new or capitalize upon existing disinformation campaigns for various malign ends. Although social media platforms are preparing for the onslaught of disinformation, their efforts will likely fail to mitigate the full extent of cyberthreats, heightening societal and physical security risks. In the second part of this series, we explore the risk of external meddling in next month's vote from actors like Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

AssessmentsOct 17, 2022 | 16:41 GMT

An abortion rights activist flies an upside-down U.S. flag, the international sign of distress, outside of the U.S. Supreme Court during a protest in Washington, D.C., on June 26, 2022, after the landmark Roe v. Wade decision was overturned.

What to Expect From Disinformation Campaigns During the 2022 U.S. Midterms, Part 1

In the first part of this three-part series, we explore how a string of divisive political events in the United States have set the stage for the spread of false or misleading information ahead of next month's vote, and what social media companies are doing to prepare. In the next part, we'll examine the risk of external meddling from actors like Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.

Situation ReportSep 30, 2022 | 15:51 GMT

Burkina Faso: Gunfire in Capital Raises Fears of Another Coup

Heavy gunfire rang out in the main military camp of Burkina Faso's capital of Ouagadougou and in some residential areas, and a large explosion went off near the presidential palace, Reuters reported Sept. 30.

Burkina Faso

How a Bolsonaro Challenge to Brazil's Presidential Election Results Might Play out

SnapshotsSep 27, 2022 | 15:16 GMT

Street vendors offer towels depicting presidential candidates Lula Da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro on Sept. 24, 2022, in downtown Rio de Janeiro.

Bolsonaro's charges against the country's electoral authority and widespread disinformation have created the conditions for him to contest the election results.

Brazil