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SnapshotsJul 3, 2025 | 14:17 GMT
A man walks past Azerbaijan's Embassy in Moscow on July 2, 2025.
In the Caucasus, Russia's Sway Weakens Amid Quarrel With Azerbaijan
The diplomatic row between Azerbaijan and Russia illustrates the Kremlin's declining influence in the Caucasus and will increasingly enable competing powers to fill the void, especially if the feud worsens. In recent days, Baku and Moscow have traded tit-for-tat measures that have further weakened their relationship. Problems began on June 27, when Russian authorities arrested dozens of people of Azerbaijani origin, two of whom died after being taken into custody, in connection with a string of unsolved violent incidents in 2001-11. In response, on June 29, Azerbaijani authorities canceled all cultural events with Russian participation as well as two intergovernmental meetings. On June 30, Azerbaijani police raided the office of the Russian state-backed news agency Sputnik over the outlet's continued operation after the rescission of its license earlier this year; police detained seven employees (two of whom were formally arrested) on multiple charges, including espionage, fraud and illegal financing. Eight
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Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsJun 25, 2025 | 19:32 GMT
Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan addresses the crowd with a megaphone during a protest in Yerevan, Armenia, on Oct. 25, 2024.
In Armenia, an Archbishop's Arrest Escalates the Prime Minister's Feud With the Church
In Armenia, an escalating dispute between the prime minister and the country's national church threatens to generate unrest and derail already delayed efforts to implement a contentious peace deal with rival Azerbaijan, raising the risk of another military confrontation. On June 25, Armenian authorities arrested Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan and 13 other people on charges of plotting violence and other destabilizing actions to overthrow the government and seize power. According to the country's top criminal investigative agency, the conspirators had recruited more than 1,000 people since the start of the year, and investigators allegedly have already recovered firearms, ammunition and other items linking them to the plot. The arrests, which the archbishop's supporters have called politically motivated, are the most severe developments in an escalating feud between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and the Armenian Apostolic Church, one of the most influential institutions in the country. The standoff began in late May,
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Armenia
Azerbaijan
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsApr 10, 2025 | 15:31 GMT
Armenia's foreign minister (2nd R) speaks during a meeting with his Azerbaijani and Kazakh counterparts in Almaty on May 10, 2024.
Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal Progresses, Though Hurdles Remain
A peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is becoming increasingly likely, but internal political dynamics in Armenia may delay its implementation, opening the door to cross-border violence. In the meantime, Russia will use a combination of threats and cooperation offers to preserve its influence in the region. On April 2, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that his country will not demand any additional changes to a peace agreement with Armenia that the two countries agreed on March 13. Still, Aliyev said that the agreement cannot enter into force unless Armenia introduces constitutional reforms to remove any references to what Baku perceives as Armenian claims on Azeri territory. On April 3, Armenia's Minister of Justice Srbuhi Galyan confirmed that her government is working on a new constitution and said that ''at some point'' the text will be made public. However, Galyan added, ''I don't think it's possible to have a new
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Iran
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Russia
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsFeb 27, 2025 | 16:30 GMT
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev (4th from left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (5th from left) attend a meeting in Moscow on April 22, 2024.
The Coming South Caucasus Realignment
As South Caucasus states pursue policies of geopolitical balancing, Russia's position in the region is likely to remain stable in the near term. However, Moscow's influence is still on a trajectory of decline in the years ahead, creating opportunities for increased economic activity for China, Turkey and the West. Recent actions by Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan show how they are adjusting their foreign policies to balance global and regional powers. On Feb. 4, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian gave a speech at the Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C., outlining his vision for closer relations with the United States and calling on Washington to facilitate its peace talks with Azerbaijan. On Feb. 7, Pashinian met with Vice President J.D. Vance to discuss Armenia-U.S. bilateral relations and the South Caucasus regional agenda. Meanwhile, on Feb. 6, Azerbaijan announced the end of the activities of Russia's civilian foreign aid and cultural organization, Rossotrudnichestvo,
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United States
Turkey
China
Europe
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Russia
Economics
Politics
On GeopoliticsFeb 19, 2025 | 21:55 GMT
Crowds of Palestinians gather to receive food outside a U.N. aid distribution center in the Gazan city of Deir al-Balah on Nov. 2, 2024.
Trump's Gaza Plan Risks Further Eroding Global Constraints on Population Removals
From the ancient Romans to the modern Russians, population transfers have been a means for governments to remove the blood from the soil they wish to control. But population transfers have become taboo for a reason, as they can create more problems than they solve (not to mention violate the letter and spirit of various international agreements). While there are intense constraints on actually carrying out Trump's plan, his proposal to relocate the Gazan population will nonetheless change the U.S. approach to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. However, this new strategy is unlikely to solve the decades-old conflict and will instead fuel the erosion of post-World War II norms that have made population transfers rare, potentially setting the stage for future, generational conflicts as states steadily return to pushing civilians outside their borders.
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United States
Israel
Palestinian Territories
Armenia
Ukraine
Azerbaijan
Russia
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
Social Issues
Quarterly ForecastsSep 23, 2024 | 00:00 GMT
2024 Fourth-Quarter Forecast
U.S.-China tensions, a push by the Global South to build a parallel world order, new governments implementing controversial reforms and elections triggering social unrest will shape the fourth quarter.
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SnapshotsAug 1, 2024 | 15:25 GMT
Azerbaijan's border guards are seen in Ghizilhajili, a village thar Armenia recently returned to Azerbaijani control under border demarcation deal between the Caucasus rivals.
Armenia-Azerbaijan Negotiations Head in the Right Direction but Have a Long Way to Go
While some progress toward a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is likely, disagreements on key areas will preclude the possibility of an agreement in the coming months, preserving the prospect of sudden military escalation. Speaking at the second Shusha Global Media Forum in Nagorno-Karabakh on July 20th, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev said that Armenian and Azerbaijani delegations have already agreed on up to 90% of the text of a peace treaty. However, Aliyev remarked that a number of Baku's conditions for a peace treaty remain unmet, including Armenia's dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, the largely defunct body responsible for facilitating a negotiated resolution to the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh since 1992 and, more notably, the necessity for amendments to the Armenian constitution removing reference to reunification with Nagorno-Karabakh. Aliyev also spoke of the need to develop regional transit corridors further to ensure lasting peace and
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Armenia
Azerbaijan
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportApr 5, 2024 | 18:37 GMT
Armenia: Yerevan Receives Resilience and Growth Package At EU-U.S. Summit
The European Union will provide Armenia with 270 million euros ($292.57 million) in grants over four years, and the United States will provide $65 million in grants in 2024 as part of a "new and ambitious partnership agenda" to help pull Armenia out of Russia's orbit by improving Armenia's economic stability, food security, digital infrastructure and energy resources, Politico reported on April 5.
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United States
Europe
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Russia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Quarterly ForecastsMar 25, 2024 | 00:04 GMT
2024 Second-Quarter Forecast
During the quarter, elections in territories covering a joint population of more than 2 billion will determine the political and economic direction of some of the world’s largest economies.
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