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PodcastsOct 15, 2020 | 04:45 GMT
Essential Geopolitics: Who Will Win Nagorno-Karabakh?
In this episode of the Essential Geopolitics podcast from Stratfor, a RANE company, Emily Donahue speaks with Sim Tack, senior global analyst for Stratfor about the flare-up in border tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno Karabakh and what happens next.
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SnapshotsOct 8, 2020 | 20:19 GMT
The Turkish Stars, the aerobatic demonstration team of the Turkish Air Force and the national aerobatics team of Turkey, perform Aug. 30, 2015, during the ceremony marking the 93rd anniversary of Victory Day, at Anitkabir, Ataturk's mausoleum, in Ankara.
F-16s Reveal Turkey's Drive to Expand Its Role in the Southern Caucasus
Confirmation of Turkish F-16 fighter aircraft operating out of Azerbaijan amid conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh illustrates Turkish commitment to challenging Russian hegemony in the Southern Caucasus. This will increase Russo-Turkish tensions, but these ultimately will prove manageable under Russian and Turkey's existing model for bilateral mediation and deescalation.
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SnapshotsSep 29, 2020 | 15:42 GMT
Armenian soldiers fire artillery shells toward Azeri forces in the town of Martakert, located in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, on April 3, 2016.
Armenia and Azerbaijan Intensify Their Border Battle
The current, intense fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenian forces near the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which started early on Sept. 27, follows months of atypically high levels of ceasefire violations between the two sides since a July 2020 skirmish in a different sector of the Armenia-Azerbaijan border. Russian efforts to alter its strategy in the South Caucasus may have signaled an opportunity to Azerbaijan, prompting an attempt to advance its position on the battlefield while still enjoying strong Turkish support. The established dynamics of Armenia and Azerbaijan’s ongoing conflict, however, are expected to persist, as local geography and a lack of resources limit both sides’ ability to challenge the higher-level reality along the line of contact.
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Regions & CountriesApril 20, 2019 | 12:56 GMT
Eurasia connects the East to the West, forming a land bridge that borders Europe, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and South Asia.
Eurasia

Eurasia is the world’s most expansive region. It connects the East to the West, forming a land bridge that borders Europe, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and South Asia. Forming the borders of this massive tract of land are the Northern European Plain, the Carpathian Mountains, the Southern Caucasus Mountains, the Tien Shan Mountains and Siberia. At the heart of Eurasia is Russia, a country that throughout history has tried, to varying degrees of success, to extend its influence to Eurasia’s farthest reaches — a strategy meant to insulate it from outside powers. But this strategy necessarily creates conflict throughout Russia’s borderlands, putting Eurasia a near constant state of instability.

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AssessmentsJan 21, 2019 | 10:00 GMT
Supporters of Armenian Nikol Pashinian celebrate in Yerevan's Republic Square on May 8, 2018. Pashinian would go on to become prime minister.
What the Chill in Russian-Armenian Relations Means
When it comes to former Soviet countries, few states have remained closer to Russia than Armenia. The Caucasus country hosts 5,000 Russian troops at the 102nd military base in Gyumri, while Russia wields substantial influence over most of Armenia's strategic economic sectors, from energy pipelines to telecommunications. Russia is also Armenia's largest trade partner -- accounting for 25 percent of total trade -- and it is the largest destination for Armenian migrant workers, whose remittances account for 10 percent of their country's gross domestic product. Yerevan is also a member of both the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Moscow's primary mechanisms for integrating the countries of the former Soviet Union. Recent political shifts in Armenia, however, have thrown the traditionally strong relationship between Yerevan and Moscow into question – raising the possibility that other powers near and far could step in to fill any breach.
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SnapshotsOct 25, 2018 | 17:33 GMT
Azerbaijan, Armenia: Washington Turns Its Attention to the South Caucasus
For the first time ever, U.S. national security adviser John Bolton is calling on the three countries of the South Caucasus. Bolton visited Azerbaijan on Oct. 24, where he met President Ilham Aliyev and highlighted the importance of Azerbaijan's role in the international energy market. One day later, Bolton visited Armenia to meet acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian and discuss the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The U.S. official will round out his tour with a visit to Georgia on Oct. 26. The Caucasus is a major energy corridor and a geopolitical fault line at the intersection of Russia, the West and the Middle East; unsurprisingly, numerous external powers have vied for influence in the region. While the Trump administration has been relatively quiet on the region, a variety of factors have put the area on Washington's radar.
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ThemesMay 2, 2018 | 16:49 GMT
The Caucasus, Eastern Europe, the Baltics and Central Asia are just as important now as they were during the Cold War — and for nearly the same reasons.
The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands
The Iron Curtain is gone, but the competition for the lands that once shielded the Soviet Union from the West lives on. The Caucasus, Eastern Europe, the Baltics and Central Asia are just as important now as they were during the Cold War — and for nearly the same reasons. Russia is compelled to use them to protect its borders, and the West is compelled to use them to halt the rise of Russian power. The survival of the countries that occupy these lands will depend on agile diplomacy, economic diversification and flexible security relationships.
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ThemesMay 2, 2018 | 16:55 GMT
Central Asia has throughout history been an arena in which greater powers have vied for influence and, in more recent years, competed for natural resources.
Instability in Central Asia
The countries of Central Asia are predisposed to instability. Their economies are in disrepair, itinerant workers are returning from Russia and militants from neighboring countries spill across their borders. More important, however, is their geographic location, which throughout history has been an arena in which greater powers have vied for influence and, in more recent years, competed for natural resources. That competition will continue to play out so long as there is economic opportunity in this troubled region.
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TopicsMay 1, 2018 | 18:55 GMT
Of all the conflicts left over from the Cold War, the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute may be the most enduring.
The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
Of all the conflicts left over from the Cold War, the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute may be the most enduring. Control of this territory, strategically located in the Caucasus, has changed hands throughout history, but it became a de facto independent republic in the 1990s, when Armenian forces defeated the Azerbaijani forces that until then had governed it. Azerbaijan wants it back. The Armenians want to keep the status quo. And Russia tries to arbitrate between the two. The web of political relationships and alliances in the Caucasus — relationships that involve not just Russia but also Turkey, Iran and the West — will prevent the conflict’s resolution.
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