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On GeopoliticsApr 7, 2025 | 19:35 GMT
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) moments after the Closing Bell and the start of U.S. President Donald Trump's news conference on tariffs on April 2, 2025.
The Perils and Pitfalls of Trump's Trade Strategy
As I argued in a column published last month, the Trump administration's tariff strategy appears to be aimed at boosting U.S. manufacturing -- and specifically jobs in the sector, which has fallen from a peak of employing about 19.5 million Americans in 1979 to 12.7 million in February 2025. However, Trump's tariffs will likely ultimately fail to accomplish these goals due to myriad constraints, and could fundamentally undermine U.S. economic competitiveness for years to come if they remain in place in their current form.
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United States
Economics
Global Trade
Politics
Situation ReportFeb 20, 2025 | 21:30 GMT
U.S., Latin America: Criminal Groups Designated as Specially Designated Global Terrorists
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Feb. 20 issued a statement confirming that the Trump administration designated eight transnational criminal groups as Specially Designated Global Terrorists, or SDGTs, in addition to their designations as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, or FTOs, which Rubio announced on Feb. 19.
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El Salvador
Mexico
United States
Venezuela
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsJan 28, 2025 | 20:21 GMT
Migrants from Mexico and Guatemala are apprehended by U.S. Customs and Border Patrol officers after crossing a section of the U.S.-Mexico border in Ruby, Arizona, on Jan. 4, 2025.
The Impacts of U.S. Terrorist Designations Targeting Mexican Cartels
If the United States follows through on threats to designate transnational criminal organizations as terrorist groups, it would create significant compliance and operational challenges for businesses in Mexico, harm the Mexican economy and U.S.-Mexico relations, and open the door to unilateral U.S. military or covert action on Mexican soil. Shortly after taking office on Jan. 20, President Donald Trump signed an executive order creating a process for certain ''international cartels'' and other criminal organizations to be designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) or Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs). The order states that cartels have engaged in a campaign of violence and terrorism and that they control ''nearly all illegal traffic across the southern border of the United States.'' The order requires that the secretary of state, in consultation with other departments, make a recommendation regarding the designation of transnational criminal groups as FTOs and/or SDGTs within 14 days of the
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Mexico
United States
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJan 10, 2024 | 22:33 GMT
Police present detainees in the case of TC Television in which armed men broke into the station's live broadcast on Jan. 10, 2024, in Guayaquil, Ecuador.
Ecuador Declares 'Internal Armed Conflict' as Gang Violence Escalates
In Ecuador, the declaration of a state of ''internal armed conflict'' will create near-term political unity, which will give the government the tools it needs to secure crime hot spots. But major constraints on curbing rising levels of violent crime will likely lead to a protracted security crisis and, over time, may erode legislative support for Noboa's economic reform agenda. On Jan. 9, Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa, who only took office in November 2023, issued an executive decree that ''recogniz[ed] the existence of an internal armed conflict'' in Ecuador in response to escalating gang violence across the country. His declaration came after a series of violent incidents earlier in the day, including one in which a dozen gunmen stormed a state-owned TV station during a live broadcast, taking multiple hostages. Gangs also kidnapped multiple police officers and declared ''war'' on the country. The violence left at least 10 Ecuadorians dead.
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Ecuador
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsSep 13, 2021 | 10:00 GMT
Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador on July 1, 2021, at the National Palace in Mexico City during a commemoration of the third year of his victory in Mexico's 2018 presidential election.
Three Years in, Lopez Obrador's Cartel Strategy Has Not Succeeded in Mexico
After nearly three years in office, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's strategy for combatting violence has not succeeded and his unwillingness to adjust course will ensure that insecurity remains pervasive. This will keep physical security and business continuity risks high for organizations operating in Mexico and along the border, and contribute to further social unrest.
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Mexico
Stratfor Threat Lens
AssessmentsAug 6, 2021 | 09:00 GMT
The scene of cartel killings on Jan. 11, 2019, in Bavispe, Sonora.
Tracking Mexico's Cartels in 2021
Since 2006, Stratfor has produced a cartel report that examines the forces driving the complicated cartel landscape in Mexico. Beginning with the fragmentation of powerful, time-tested cartels, this task has become increasingly intricate as the number of violent groups in the country continues to rise. The list of all drug trafficking organizations in Mexico is long, so we will highlight the most important groups and evaluate the ways in which they will impact Mexico over the next 18 months in our 2021 annual cartel report, which will be broken up into two parts this year; Threat Lens clients will have access to part two.
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Mexico
United States
Stratfor Threat Lens
On SecurityMar 15, 2021 | 10:00 GMT
Signs mark the boundary between the United States and Mexico over the Rio Grande on Aug. 6, 2008, near Laredo, Texas.
Security Threats in the United States From Mexican Organized Crime
The criminal threat to personnel and company assets in Mexico from transnational criminal organizations and other opportunistic criminals has been well established. Petty robberies, extortion, cargo theft and the use of indiscriminate violence in populated areas are all risks of doing business in Mexico. Despite its proximity, however, the threats of criminal activity in Mexico manifest themselves differently north of the border. In this column, we will explore how Mexico-based criminal activity threatens individuals and companies in the United States.
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Mexico
United States
AssessmentsOct 22, 2020 | 21:23 GMT
A building remains on fire in Lekki, Nigeria, on Oct. 21, 2020, after #EndSARS protests escalated into violent clashes with police the previous night.
Nigeria's #EndSARS Protests Back Its President Into a Corner
Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari and his government have few good options to contain the country’s growing protest movement without sparking broader security concerns and potentially exacerbating social tensions. More than two weeks of protests against police brutality erupted into violence on Oct. 20, when live ammunition was used against demonstrators at the Lekki toll plaza in Lagos State, killing at least one person and injuring dozens more. A viral video showing an alleged murder of a man by the police’s Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) initially sparked the protests. SARS was disbanded by the government on Oct. 11 in response to initial protests, but the so-called #EndSARS movement formed amid the uproar has since expanded its focus to ending all forms of police brutality in Nigeria. 
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Nigeria
Energy
Economics
Politics
Military & Security
Environment, Science & Technology
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