BusinessMar 27, 2020 | 19:30 GMT
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On SecurityFeb 18, 2020 | 11:00 GMT
Travelers can increase their odds of having a safe and enjoyable vacation in Mexico by following best practices.
READ MOREOn SecurityFeb 4, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
Since Stratfor produced our first annual Mexican cartel report in October 2006, we have carefully monitored the developments of drug trafficking organizations in Mexico. This report contains a four-part recap of developments in 2019 and an outlook for the year to come.
READ MOREOn SecurityJan 14, 2020 | 09:00 GMT
The long-term consequences of being labeled narcoterrorist groups, and possibly turning the population against them, has outweighed the short-term benefit for Mexican cartels of using vehicle bombs in their struggles with authorities and each other.
READ MOREAssessmentsNov 27, 2019 | 17:51 GMT
The harsh reality is that economics dictate that the flow of contraband across the U.S.-Mexico border will never end as long as there is a huge market in the United States.
READ MOREAssessmentsNov 5, 2019 | 16:12 GMT
Gunmen in Mexico ambushed three vehicles carrying three American women and 14 of their children in a remote part of Sonora state on Nov. 4, killing the women and six children, El Heraldo de Chihuahua reported. Whether this ambush was an intentional attack or a case of mistaken identity, the involvement of dual-nationality Americans has brought a great deal of media attention to the incident, and this will undoubtedly result in additional pressure on Mexican authorities from the U.S. government. The criminal groups operating in the mountains of this region are firmly entrenched, however, and have access to extensive resources. It will take a significant counterinsurgency effort to root them out.
READ MOREAssessmentsAug 2, 2019 | 09:00 GMT
The last time the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the global financial crisis was in its early stages, Beyonce’s "Single Ladies" topped the Billboard 100 list and George W. Bush still occupied the Oval Office. On July 31, more than a decade after that last loosening of monetary policy, the Fed announced a cut of 25 basis points in the federal funds rate. The decision was driven by several factors, including an increasingly dim outlook for global economic growth, further signs that U.S. inflation is softening and, of course, relentless pressure on the central bank by U.S. President Donald Trump to deliver a rate cut.
The Fed’s decision will cascade across the world as other central banks feel pressure to match its moves in dealing with their own slowing economies. However, fears of a global currency war set off by a series of rate cuts are overblown. Nevertheless, Trump’s concerns
READ MOREOn SecurityJul 23, 2019 | 10:00 GMT
And so the curtain falls on the career of a criminal mastermind. On July 17, Sinaloa cartel leader Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman Loera was sentenced to serve life plus 30 years in prison following a February conviction on 10 counts, including engaging in a continuing criminal enterprise, drug trafficking and firearms charges. Shortly after the sentencing hearing, Guzman was sent to the U.S. administrative maximum (ADX) penitentiary in Florence, Colorado. Guzman has a long history of shenanigans in -- and escapes from -- Mexican penitentiaries, but the book is now officially closed on him. Guzman has never been incarcerated in a facility like the ADX in Florence, which is home to some of the most dangerous criminals and terrorists in the world, meaning he has zero chance of either continuing to run his criminal enterprise from the prison or escaping from it.
The end to Guzman's illicit activities, however, does
READ MOREAssessmentsJul 11, 2019 | 10:00 GMT
Mexican news outlet Milenio on July 1 published its unofficial count of murders in Mexico for the first half of 2019. Milenio counted 2,249 murders in June alone, the highest monthly number the news outlet has recorded since it began keeping its own tally in 2007. In fact, this is the first time that Milenio's numbers have ever surpassed 2,000 for any given month. According to Milenio, the four states with the highest murder counts in June were Jalisco with 206, Mexico with 202, Baja California with 181 and Guanajuato with 176. While these numbers are not official, they still serve as a good barometer by which to measure the state of the country's violence. As expected, Mexico appears well on its way to another record-setting year for murders. Based on the trends we outlined in our 2019 annual cartel forecast, the high levels of violence in Jalisco, Mexico State, Baja
READ MORESITUATION REPORTJun 25, 2019 | 20:53 GMT
Venezuela: Former Intelligence Director Arrives in U.S., Shares Details of Maduro GovernmentFormer Bolivarian Intelligence Service Director Christopher Figuera arrived in the United States on June 24, El Espectador reported June 25, telling the press a variety of things about the government in Caracas including that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's son benefits from the sale of illegally mined gold.
READ MORESITUATION REPORTMay 22, 2019 | 17:24 GMT
Argentina: Fernandez de Kirchner Leads Macri by 13 Points in Approval RatingsArgentine President Mauricio Macri is ranking nearly 13 points behind former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner in approval ratings, according to a survey by polling firm Nueva Comunicacion, Clarin reported May 21.
READ MORESnapshotsApr 30, 2019 | 14:41 GMT
The Venezuelan opposition's push for regime change seemed to be stalling -- until now. It appears that a military uprising against the government of President Nicolas Maduro is underway. No matter how it turns out, the uprising will be consequential. If successful, it will usher in a more business-friendly opposition government. If it fails, the Maduro government will crack down heavily on its opponents and call upon external backers such as Russia to protect itself from future coup attempts.
READ MOREAssessmentsMar 22, 2019 | 20:28 GMT
The Cartel del Noreste, the remnant of the Los Zetas cartel that controls the lucrative Nuevo Laredo smuggling plaza, has taken actions over the past week suggesting it is preparing a push to seize control of Monterrey, Mexico's third-largest metropolitan area and a major regional business hub. Such an offensive would likely meet resistance from the groups currently in the area and so would involve significant violence -- something businesses with interests in the area should prepare for.
READ MOREMemosFeb 5, 2019 | 19:47 GMT
No matter what happens to Mexican cartel leader Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman, the ongoing violence of the Sinaloa cartel he helped found and run continues.
READ MOREOn SecurityJan 29, 2019 | 09:30 GMT
Since 2006, Stratfor has produced an annual cartel report chronicling the dynamics of the organizations that make up the complex mosaic of organized crime in Mexico. When we began, the landscape was much simpler, with only a handful of major cartel groups. But as we noted in 2013, the long process of balkanization -- or splintering -- of the groups has made it difficult to analyze them the way we used to. Indeed, many of the organizations we had been tracking, such as the Gulf cartel, imploded and fragmented into several smaller, often competing factions. Because of this fracturing, we changed our analysis in 2013 to focus on the clusters of smaller groups that emanate from three main geographic areas: Sinaloa state, Tamaulipas state and the Tierra Caliente region.
READ MOREOn SecurityOct 23, 2018 | 05:30 GMT
Recently, I found myself explaining to a client how illicit goods flow into and through Mexico and then onward to the United States, and it occurred to me that there are many logistical similarities between Mexican transnational criminal organizations and the countless manufacturers operating in Mexico. After further consideration, it became clear that many of the factors that make Mexico an attractive destination for foreign businesses also make it attractive for criminal enterprises. It is no mistake that the pieces of real estate that Mexican criminal groups fight over often directly overlap with major logistical and production nodes of the traditional economy. In many ways Mexico's globalized criminal landscape is a mirror of its globalized legitimate economy -- and they have both been growing in power.
READ MOREOn SecuritySep 25, 2018 | 08:30 GMT
The attack was almost cinematic: Just over a week ago, gunmen dressed as mariachi musicians shot dead five people at a restaurant in Mexico City's Plaza Garibaldi, a place of attraction for locals and tourists alike. The latest violence to grab the headlines illustrates how cartel figures are now dragging violence with them into the tourist areas and upscale neighborhoods they frequent and inhabit. At the same time, it shows how the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG) has expanded its presence throughout the length and breadth of Mexico. As a result of the group's atrocities, CJNG leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (El Mencho) has become public enemy number one. But amid the violence, the bigger question for Mexican authorities is not how to capture or kill Oseguera Cervantes, but a far more distressing one: What happens the day after?
READ MOREAssessmentsSep 17, 2018 | 18:48 GMT
The party atmosphere surrounding Mexico's Independence Day celebrations in Mexico City's Garibaldi Plaza was shattered Sept. 14 when a group of three gunmen dressed as mariachis opened fire on a group seated at a restaurant. The hail of pistol and rifle fire killed five people and injured another eight. The apparent target of the attack was Jorge Flores Concha "El Tortas," the leader of a criminal organization known as "La U," or "La Fuerza Antiunion," a group that split from the powerful Union Tepito crime network.
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsJul 5, 2018 | 20:24 GMT
Some political regimes bend for decades until they break. After years of pressure building on Mexico’s political establishment, an overwhelming presidential and legislative victory by populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador might be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Mexican voters propelled Lopez Obrador into the country’s highest office with more than half the national vote, the highest tally for any presidential candidate since 1994. Lopez Obrador has a strong platform to target well-entrenched political adversaries under a broad, anti-corruption umbrella. The new president, however, could trigger major upheaval as he strives to tackle graft that has infested the public and private and sectors. The question now is whether Lopez Obrador turns to political pragmatism once in power – becoming a product of the system he was elected to dismantle – or uses the powerful tools at his disposal to try and upend the country’s political order.
READ MOREContributor PerspectivesMay 21, 2018 | 07:00 GMT
In Mexico, drug cartel assassins ushered in the first week of 2018, a key election year, with the murders of at least five political candidates, a spree of violence that has continued: More than 30 candidates have been assassinated to date. Cartel killers have also targeted journalists, especially those working to expose their nefarious activities, murdering a dozen in 2017 and at least four so far in 2018. Upcoming national elections and the promises of politicians advocating a crackdown on drug violence have incited a particularly vicious brand of wrath from the cartels, as the death toll this year seems destined to eclipse last year’s record-setting murder rate.
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