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AssessmentsDec 26, 2024 | 11:00 GMT
The Geopolitics of Water
The Geopolitics of Water: Cyberattacks' Impact on Water Stress in the U.S. and Beyond
Cyberattacks on water utilities in highly water-stressed areas threaten to disrupt agriculture and industrial processes, exacerbate social unrest and cause civilian casualties, especially in periods of high tension or outright conflict. As the effects of climate change become increasingly palpable, particularly in geographic regions with high water stress, scrutiny of cyber threat actors' potential disruption of water flows is rising. Across the West, including the United States and much of Europe, water systems tend to be more vulnerable than other types of critical infrastructure due in large part to the fact that they are more likely to be municipally owned or operated by smaller utility companies. As a result, these systems are more likely to rely on local taxes and water rates to make up their budgets, frequently leading to financial constraints. Therefore, many water systems operators struggle to adequately update security measures, such as by replacing aging equipment, implementing
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United States
Iran
Israel
China
Russia
India
Cyber
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
On SecurityOct 21, 2024 | 18:16 GMT
A photo taken on June 24, 2024, shows the aftermath of a fire at a manufacturing facility in Berlin, Germany, that was allegedly linked to Russia.
The Saboteur's Dilemma: The Risk of Using Proxies for Espionage
The past few weeks have seen a flurry of official Western government statements, media investigations and other reports alleging that multiple foreign countries are increasingly working through proxies to sponsor a wide range of illegal operations, including lethal violence, harassment and intimidation, and cyber threat activity across the West. These operations are setting off alarm bells across North America and Europe as authorities express concern that proxies are becoming bolder and more dangerous.
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Americas
Iran
China
Europe
Russia
Cyber
Military & Security
Situation ReportOct 16, 2024 | 19:29 GMT
U.S.: Two Sudanese Nationals Indicted for Role in Anonymous Sudan Hacking Group
U.S. federal prosecutors unsealed a grand jury indictment charging two Sudanese nationals and brothers with operating and controlling Anonymous Sudan, a purported hacktivist group responsible for more than 35,000 distributed denial of service, or DDoS, attacks, The Washington Post reported on Oct. 16.
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Sudan
United States
Cyber
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
Situation ReportSep 18, 2024 | 15:23 GMT
U.S.: New $30B Global AI Infrastructure Investment Partnership Announced
BlackRock, Global Infrastructure Partners, Microsoft and Abu Dhabi's MGX announced the creation of the Global AI Infrastructure Investment Partnership to meet the growing needs for computing power to fuel artificial intelligence innovation, including energy infrastructure and data centers, Reuters reported on Sept. 17.
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United States
United Arab Emirates
Cyber
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
AssessmentsSep 13, 2024 | 16:36 GMT
A digital illustration shows a binary code overlaying the Iranian flag.
Iran's Escalating Cyber Strategy Against the West, Part 2
Compared with China and even Russia, Iranian cyber operations often embrace a higher risk tolerance to cause operational impediments for critical infrastructure entities and other Western organizations. If former U.S. President Donald Trump is reelected in November, Iran will double down on its aggressive cyber operations, whereas U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris' election would offer at least a narrow opportunity for disruptive activity to lessen. Iran's higher risk tolerance is steeped in the regime's pervasive hostility toward the West and desire to upend the Western-led global and specifically regional order, leveraging cyber as a way to maximize retaliation short of more escalatory measures. China and Russia share elements of this worldview, but comparatively Russia has generally reserved its most aggressive cyber campaigns for non-Western theaters, such as Ukraine, while China has largely prioritized espionage over disruption. To this end, there have been numerous incidents of Iranian-backed groups targeting Western water
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United States
Iran
Europe
Cyber
Military & Security
AssessmentsSep 12, 2024 | 20:03 GMT
A digital illustration shows a binary code overlaying the Iranian flag.
Iran's Escalating Cyber Strategy Against the West, Part 1
Iran's cyber strategy against the West is becoming increasingly focused and aggressive, though Iran's intentions currently outpace its capabilities; Iran's risk tolerance against the United States will likely remain high if former U.S. President Donald Trump is reelected in November, whereas the election of U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris may offer a slim chance for resumed Western dialogue, which could lead Iran to reevaluate its risk appetite. Recent reports from U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies, as well as independent cybersecurity researchers, have alleged that Iran's most recent efforts to influence the 2024 U.S. election in November have emerged as a threat on par with Russian efforts. In particular, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) warned on July 9 that Iran is becoming increasingly aggressive and ambitious in its disinformation efforts. However, Iran's election influence operations are just one component of its broader cyber strategy against the
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United States
Iran
Europe
Cyber
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsAug 7, 2024 | 21:45 GMT
A Google sign is displayed outside the company's offices in New York City on Jan. 25, 2023.
Washington's Antitrust Push Is Unlikely To Threaten U.S. Tech Firms' Global Dominance
Google's antitrust loss shows that regulators can successfully challenge U.S. tech companies; but while such rulings will impact companies' operations, they are unlikely to weaken the dominance of major firms or stop the tech sector from creating large, sprawling corporations. In a landmark Aug. 5 ruling, a U.S. federal judge ruled that Google violated the Sherman Act in protecting its monopoly in online search after a ten-week trial held last year. In his ruling, Judge Amit Mehta said that ''Google is a monopolist, and it has acted as one to maintain its monopoly.'' Shortly after the ruling, Google announced that it would appeal. The ruling was closely watched as the Google online search case was the first to go to trial in a series of lawsuits filed by the two federal U.S. antitrust enforcement arms -- the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) -- against large
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United States
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Politics
AssessmentsJul 26, 2024 | 15:18 GMT
A stock photo shows the inside of a modern data center.
In the U.S., the AI Revolution Could Create Localized Power Crunches
The growth of U.S. data centers will run into power availability issues and permitting bottlenecks, spurring more technology companies to secure access to electricity directly from renewable power generators, though any systemic risks to electrical grids will likely be localized. The growing importance of cloud computing and artificial intelligence is rapidly increasing demand for the physical spaces these technologies rely on to store, process, manage and share data. But these data centers also consume high levels of energy to both power, as well as cool down, the digital systems they house. Some individual data centers and campuses have capacities to consume above 100 megawatts (MW), while the capacity of some planned centers even surpasses 1,000 MW, which is roughly equivalent to the power created by a utility-scale, natural gas-fired power plant or a nuclear reactor. Much of the growth of data centers over the last five years predated the explosion
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United States
Energy
Environment, Science & Technology
AssessmentsJun 20, 2024 | 20:30 GMT
U.S. President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden pose with Kenyan President William Ruto (center), alongside his wife and children, as they arrive for a State Dinner at the White House on May 23, 2024.
What To Expect From Stronger U.S.-Kenya Ties
Stronger ties with the United States will raise Kenya's profile as a destination for U.S. investments and help it play a leading role in stabilizing the Horn of Africa, but the two countries' partnership will be tested by Nairobi's police deployment to Haiti and former U.S. President Donald Trump's potential reelection. On May 23, the White House announced that President Joe Biden would label Kenya as the United States' first major non-NATO ally in sub-Saharan Africa. The announcement came amid Kenyan President William Ruto's state visit to the United States, in which he clinched significant investment pledges into Kenya, including a $3.6 billion investment by Everstrong Capital LLC to build a highway connecting Nairobi to the port city of Mombasa, as well as a $1 billion investment by Microsoft and Emirati company G42 into a 1-gigawatt data center. In addition to securing strong backing from the private sector, Ruto's trip
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Kenya
Somalia
Haiti
United States
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsJun 17, 2024 | 18:48 GMT
Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin watches a race during the F1 Grand Prix in Imola, Italy, on May 19, 2024.
Thai Politics Undergoes Another Round of Instability
In Thailand, three legal cases against prominent political figures will usher in a new period of political instability, portending renewed protests and policy paralysis that will weigh on the country's fragile economy. On June 18, Thai courts will hear a trio of politically consequential cases. The Constitutional Court will hear a case against the main opposition Move Forward Party (MFP) that could result in its dissolution. The same court will hear a case against Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin that could result in his removal. The Court has not indicated when it will render a verdict in either case, though a similar case against the MFP's predecessor party in 2020 took around a month to conclude. Finally, a criminal court will formally indict former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, marking the beginning of a criminal prosecution against him, which could send him to prison for up to 15 years.
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Thailand
Politics
Situation ReportJun 7, 2024 | 16:11 GMT
U.S.: Regulators To Split Potential Antitrust Investigation into Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia
The United States' two antitrust regulators, the Federal Trade Commission and the Department of Justice, agreed to divide responsibilities over potential antitrust investigations into the dominant roles that Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia play in the artificial intelligence sector, Reuters reported on June 7.
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United States
Cyber
Environment, Science & Technology
Politics
Situation ReportMay 23, 2024 | 15:34 GMT
U.S., UAE: Microsoft To Export Critical AI Technologies in Deal With UAE's G42
Microsoft vice chair and president Brad Smith said the company's artificial intelligence deal with UAE-backed company Group 42, or G42, could eventually involve the export of critical AI technologies and components, including weights for an AI model and sophisticated chips, Reuters reported on May 22.
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United States
United Arab Emirates
China
Cyber
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
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