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AssessmentsJan 7, 2020 | 10:30 GMT
Lava rises to the top inside Erta Ale volcano in the Afar region of northeastern Ethiopia. The Ethiopian volcano is home to the world's oldest continuously active lava lake, known as the "Gateway To Hell."
Unlocking the Power of Potash in the Horn of Africa
Following their recent peace deal, Ethiopia and Eritrea are seeking to take advantage of the region's newfound foreign investment interest by tapping into long-ignored natural resources under their soil. One of the most promising resources is potash, a mined salt containing water-soluble potassium that is most often used in fertilizer. High-grade potash reserves split between Ethiopia and neighboring Eritrea are likely worth well into the hundreds of millions of dollars, if not much more. And with global fertilizer demand set to skyrocket in the years ahead, the opening of the region's market couldn't come at a more opportune time. But whether the two countries will be able to turn that promise into profit remains far from certain, as foreign investors may deem the countries' political futures too murky -- and the security challenges still too steep -- despite the possible returns.
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AssessmentsFeb 5, 2019 | 10:00 GMT
The long-closed border between Ethiopia and Eritrea is open, and both countries are seeing possible economic and security benefits bloom.
Can Ethiopia and Eritrea Keep the Peace, or Will History Repeat Itself?
After a costly war in 1998 and two subsequent decades of animosity, Eritrea and Ethiopia formally agreed to settle their differences with a historic truce in September 2018. The former enemies have since basked in the peace, with their improved relations opening the door for increased trade and investment and new transport routes. But trade and security problems loom on the horizon -- carrying the risk of once again souring relations between the Horn of Africa neighbors.
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AssessmentsDec 31, 2018 | 10:00 GMT
Passengers pose for a selfie inside an Ethiopian Airlines flight on July 18, 2018. The trip was the first commercial flight between the Ethiopian and Eritrean capitals in two decades.
2018: The Year Abiy Ahmed Started to Put Ethiopia's House in Order
The Horn of Africa giant has had a whirlwind 2018. A leadership change in Addis Ababa paved the way for Abiy Ahmed to become prime minister. Energetic, young and ambitious, the new head of state is pursuing a whole host of projects, ranging from a broad ethnic reconciliation campaign to temper internal instability to brokering a peace deal with erstwhile foe Eritrea. The economic front has also been full of activity, as Abiy has promised to reform the country's top-heavy economy by partially privatizing major state-owned companies like EthioTelecom, Ethiopian Airlines and others. As Ethiopia enters a new year full of new challenges, here's a look back at some of the articles that dominated Stratfor's coverage of the rising giant in 2018.
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AssessmentsOct 12, 2018 | 09:00 GMT
The harbor in Massawa shows some of what Eritrea has to offer to investors as a transportation hub and tourism magnet.
Eritrea Creaks Open the Door as Fears of War Recede
Massive political and economic changes in Ethiopia are having an impact far beyond the regional heavyweight's borders. Nowhere have these changes been more evident than in Eritrea, Ethiopia's erstwhile, decades-old nemesis. As renewed ties between Addis Ababa and Asmara deepen, transport arteries are once again open, bilateral trade is up and cost-prohibitive natural resources are in play. All of this begs the question: is Eritrea a frontier market worth digging into?
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AssessmentsSep 18, 2018 | 09:00 GMT
Since taking office, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has pushed ambitious reforms and local and regional reconciliation.
Ethiopia's Ambitious Leader Reaches for the Stars
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed governs like a man running short on time. After less than six months in office, the youthful leader has presided over impressive internal ethnic and political reconciliation, has established peace with Eritrea and has begun ambitious economic privatization efforts. The changes have come so quickly that many question whether they are sustainable. And while there are many limitations to just how much Abiy can accomplish, it's very possible that he will establish a new level of stability and economic opportunity in the East African country of 100 million people.
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SnapshotsSep 11, 2018 | 20:36 GMT
Ethiopia, Eritrea: Border Opening Marks Another Milestone for the Former Enemies
Scenes of elation marked the reopening of the border between Ethiopia and Eritrea on Sept. 11. According to reports, the roads at the Debay Sima-Burre checkpoint, near Eritrea's Assab port, and at the Serha-Zalambessa checkpoint now allow the flow of civilian traffic from one side of the border to the other for the first time in more than 20 years. The move is the latest step in Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's efforts, alongside his Eritrean counterpart, Isaias Afwerki, to normalize relations between their countries.
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ReflectionsJun 29, 2018 | 07:59 GMT
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed addresses a rally behind protective glass in Addis Ababa on June 23.
Old Threats to New Leaders in Ethiopia and Zimbabwe
Hand grenades were thrown during the final moments of two rallies in Africa on June 23: at a huge gathering for Ethiopia's new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, and at an election rally for Zimbabwe's president, Emmerson Mnangagwa. On the surface, there are clear parallels between the two attacks: Two new and ambitious African leaders and their supporters were targeted by reactionary forces. However, the attacks, their likely perpetrators and the motivations behind them fit into more specific contexts. And perhaps most crucially is the outcome: The failed assassination attempts will not slow the men they were intended to kill. According to both governments, Abiy will press forward with Ethiopia's economic and political openings as will Mnangagwa with Zimbabwe's July 30 elections.
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SnapshotsJun 20, 2018 | 20:39 GMT
Eritrea, Ethiopia: Can Their Rivalry End?
Dynamics in East Africa have the potential to change dramatically in the near future. After weeks of silence, Eritrea's reclusive president, Isaias Afwerki, finally weighed in on June 5 reports that Ethiopia could give disputed territory to its longtime enemy. During Eritrea's Martyrs Day, Afwerki stated that the recent events in Ethiopia warranted attention and that his country would send a delegation to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia's capital, to discuss potential cooperation.
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AssessmentsSep 18, 2009 | 20:31 GMT
Intelligence Guidance: Week of Sept. 20, 2009
The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.
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