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On SecurityAug 26, 2022 | 18:05 GMT
Hundreds of villagers desperate for humanitarian aid wait for hours outside a government center to register on Dec. 6, 2021, in Charikar, Afghanistan.
Reflecting on the Taliban's First Year Back in Power in Afghanistan, Part 2: The Challenges Ahead
While the Taliban have effectively established themselves as the de-facto government in Afghanistan, they will face considerable challenges to their continued rule, making effective diplomatic partnerships for economic advancement and preventing security threats, both domestically and to external actors, essential. Notably, most challenges are closely related to the accomplishments discussed in the first part of this series -- highlighting that what may have been relative successes in the Taliban's first year in power also present longer-term liabilities.
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Afghanistan
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Social Issues
SnapshotsNov 17, 2021 | 22:16 GMT
People gather next to a damaged bus damaged in a deadly bomb blast in Kabul, Afghanistan, on Nov. 17, 2021.
The Implications of the Latest Islamic State Bombings in Kabul
The latest in a string of Islamic State attacks against minorities in Afghanistan will stoke internal divisions and increase the risk of unrest, threatening the Taliban-led government’s already tenuous hold on power. On Nov. 17, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) claimed credit for attacks earlier in the day on two buses in Shiite-majority neighborhoods of Kabul. In the first attack, militants reportedly attached a magnetic explosive device to a minibus in Kabul's Dasht-e Barchi neighborhood, a dominantly Hazara Shiite community. Social media reports indicate that the bombing killed at least one person and wounded three others. The second bombing targeted a minibus in the nearby Charahi Shaid neighborhood, which also has a large Shiite population, killing as many as seven people, according to social media reports. 
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Afghanistan
Military & Security
South Asian Militancy
AssessmentsSep 29, 2021 | 19:01 GMT
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) and then-Afghan President Ashraf Ghani wave during the inauguration of the Afghan-India Friendship Dam in Herat, Afghanistan, on June 4, 2016.
For India, a Taliban-Led Afghanistan Marks a Painful Setback
The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan has created political, economic and security challenges for India. New Delhi’s strategy will focus on preserving some degree of political engagement with Kabul while reaching out to countries like Russia and Iran to influence regional events and try to mitigate the risk of terrorism. Lodged between regional rivals China and Pakistan, Afghanistan has great strategic value for India. India’s relationship with Afghanistan has also helped India with its national security and economic goals for the region. For New Delhi, influence in Afghanistan by means of a strong engagement with the former democratic government has been helpful in keeping its neighboring nemesis Pakistan in check. Over the past 20 years, India has built up large strategic capital through developmental investment and people-to-people ties in Afghanistan. Economically, Afghanistan has also become an important node for facilitating India’s trade and connectivity with West and Central Asia. But with
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Afghanistan
India
Politics
Military & Security
South Asian Militancy
AssessmentsAug 18, 2021 | 20:56 GMT
Stranded Afghan nationals arrive to return back to Afghanistan at the Pakistan-Afghanistan border crossing point in Chaman on Aug. 16, 2021.
The World Reacts to the Looming Influx of Afghan Migrants
The unfolding crisis in Afghanistan will spur new waves of migration in the coming weeks, adding to the 2.6 million Afghan refugees already living in different parts of the world amid years of war in their home country. With the Taliban now in control of all borders, escaping Afghan territory will no doubt prove a dangerous endeavor. But despite the risks, thousands will still likely attempt to flee for fear of the coming return to the socially and politically restrictive rule of the Taliban.  In light of the looming migrant influx, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Gutierres on Aug. 16 urged all countries to receive refugees and refrain from deportations. Each country’s willingness to do so, however, will vary based on their individual social, political, security and economic considerations.
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Americas
Europe
Eurasia
Middle East and North Africa
South Asia
Afghanistan
Politics
Military & Security
South Asian Militancy
GuidanceAug 18, 2021 | 19:16 GMT
Armed men supporting Afghan security forces against the Taliban stand along a road in Panjshir on Aug. 18, 2021.
What to Watch For Amid Reports of an Anti-Taliban Movement in Afghanistan
Several unconfirmed reports indicate former Afghan Vice President Amrullah Saleh and Ahmad Massoud, the son of the renowned Afghan resistance hero Ahmad Shah Massoud, are rallying anti-Taliban forces in the former Northern Alliance stronghold of the Panjshir Valley -- bringing into question the Taliban’s ability to govern the entire country mere days after seizing Kabul. Saleh declared himself as the “caretaker president” of the legitimate government of Afghanistan on Aug. 15 after former President Ashraf Ghani fled the country in the wake of the Taliban’s capture of Kabul. The following day, photos emerged of Saleh meeting with Massoud in the Panjshir Valley, which has repeatedly proven difficult terrain to conquer and remains outside Taliban control. Some reports suggest Afghanistan’s former defense minister, Bismillah Khan Mohammadi, is also joining Saleh and Massoud, in addition to several other former Northern Alliance fighters and elements of the Afghan security forces. Saleh had close
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Afghanistan
Military & Security
Military & Security
South Asian Militancy
GraphicsMay 18, 2021 | 21:24 GMT
An Afghan soldier stands guard at a checkpoint outside a U.S. military base in Bagram, located roughly 50 kilometers north of Kabul, on April 29, 2021.
Afghanistan’s Geography, 20 Years After the U.S. Invasion
Geography and history have left Afghanistan a fractured landscape, the contours of which are re-emerging as the United States withdraws from its 20-year engagement. Landlocked in Central Asia, Afghanistan has a history of being a geographically fragmented nation with an equally fragmented society, with concentrations of ethnic, sectarian and clan affiliations that have long shaped the Afghan context. After the U.S.-backed invasion in 2001, the country’s otherwise warring populace was temporarily brought together through a newly established Afghan government backed by the U.S.-led coalition. However, Washington’s latest decision to end its 20-year occupation threatens to tear the delicate threads preventing the country from once again descending into civil war.
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Afghanistan
Military & Security
The Jihadist Wars
South Asian Militancy
On GeopoliticsOct 3, 2019 | 09:00 GMT
A man walks by election billboards outside of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani's campaign headquarters in Kabul on Sept. 29.
A U.S.-Taliban Deal Is Likely. Peace in Afghanistan Is Not.
After nearly a year of negotiations, U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad announced a draft peace deal with the Taliban on Sept. 2. But shortly thereafter, an insurgent attack in Kabul prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to abruptly call off negotiations on Sept. 7, which were aimed at starting the long process to finally end their 18-year conflict in Afghanistan. U.S.-Taliban talks, however, were always likely to resume due to the two sides' shared need for a political settlement. And indeed, it looks like they just might in the coming days, with officials from both sides arriving in Pakistan on Oct. 2.  But until the government in Kabul reaches its own "intra-Afghan" cease-fire agreement with the Taliban, fighting will persist regardless of whatever deal the United States eventually strikes with the insurgent organization. And thus, the fate of peace in Afghanistan will hinge more whether the winner of the country's Sept. 28 presidential
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United States
Afghanistan
Military & Security
Rebalancing Power in the Middle East
The Jihadist Wars
South Asian Militancy
AssessmentsDec 22, 2018 | 13:00 GMT
An Afghan man walks along a hilltop overlooking Kabul on March 21, 2018.
Afghanistan in 2018: No End to the Stalemate
With the current conflict in Afghanistan approaching its 18th year, the United States has yet to find a way to escape its longest war. The United States and its NATO allies are but one component invested in Afghanistan's future, as the country finds itself once again a focal point for great power competition. Despite the rhetoric of the current U.S. administration and a revised strategic approach relying more heavily on air power, the stalemate on the ground has yet to be broken. The NATO-backed central government in Kabul continues to control the country's urban areas while the Taliban exerts influence over wide swaths of the countryside. On the diplomatic front, Russia has made more significant gains -- seeking to needle its Western opponents -- while Pakistan continues to muddy the waters. All the while, China watches and waits. As we take stock of what transpired in 2018, two late developments have
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Afghanistan
Military & Security
The Jihadist Wars
Echoes of the Cold War
Instability in Central Asia
Pakistan: A Military With a Country
AssessmentsOct 17, 2018 | 10:00 GMT
An Afghan police officer stands guard after a political rally was attacked in Nangarhar province in early October.
For Afghanistan, Parliamentary Elections Are Another Step on the Rocky Road to Democracy
For Afghanistan, the upcoming parliamentary elections will be a key test on its war-ravaged path to democracy. On Oct. 20, the South Asian country will elect members for most of the seats in the lower house of parliament. The polls were originally scheduled for 2015 but have been repeatedly delayed due to the inability of the National Unity Government between President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah to implement key electoral reforms. Because of this failure and other infighting, these elections and their aftermath will probably complicate the presidential elections set for April 2019. It is almost certain that candidates will contest the outcomes, and allegations of fraud will follow, all while the country remains at war.
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Afghanistan
South Asian Militancy
AssessmentsMar 8, 2018 | 12:28 GMT
In the Surkh Rod district of Afghanistan, a man displaced by the Islamic State's Khorasan chapter makes his way home.
The Odd Couple: Why Iran Is Backing the Taliban
In the conflict in Afghanistan, there are few stranger bedfellows than Iran and the Taliban. The former is the spiritual hub of Shiite Islam, while the latter is a vociferously anti-Shiite Sunni fundamentalist movement. Changing circumstances, however, have brought the onetime foes into a kind of partnership. Whatever its ideological differences with the insurgent outfit, Tehran has every reason to maintain its tactical partnership with the Taliban -- while also keeping its ties to the Afghan government.
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Iran
Afghanistan
Military & Security
South Asian Militancy
AssessmentsJun 22, 2016 | 09:15 GMT
The Afghan Government Is Unified in Name Alone
The Afghan Government Is Unified in Name Alone
For much of Afghanistan's history, its combination of competing ethnic groups, illogical boundaries and impotent central government have weakened its status as both a nation and a state. Today, these problems persist, and as a result Afghanistan finds itself burdened with four interrelated challenges: a political system unable to advance reform, a military unable to monopolize the use of force, an anemic economy overreliant on foreign aid and a perennially strained relationship with neighboring Pakistan. Faced with these problems, the country's current government will not fulfill one of the key requirements of its assumption of power -- implementing the electoral reforms necessary to hold parliamentary and district council elections.
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United States
Afghanistan
Pakistan
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
Military & Security
ReflectionsMay 19, 2016 | 02:15 GMT
Afghanistan: The Reality Behind the Rhetoric
Afghanistan: The Reality Behind the Rhetoric
International politics has two levels. The first is rhetoric -- speeches and handshakes, photo opportunities and posturing, a whole universe of symbolic gestures that appear on the front pages of newspapers. Below this superficial level is where the real substance lies. Afghanistan exemplifies the disconnect between rhetoric and reality. On Wednesday, the Quadrilateral Coordination Group, which comprises Afghanistan, Pakistan, China and the United States, convened in Islamabad to begin the fifth round of peace talks to end the 14-year war in Afghanistan. As in the past four iterations of negotiations, the Taliban -- whose presence the talks are designed to invite -- have been absent. But another party is also missing: the Afghans.
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Tajikistan
Afghanistan
Pakistan
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
Military & Security
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