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AssessmentsApr 22, 2024 | 20:21 GMT
Gauging the Risk of a Systemic Financial Crisis in China
China's efforts to rein in unsustainable investment in the infrastructure and real estate sector will not lead to a systemic financial crisis, but broader reforms aimed at substantially reducing excess savings or creating more profitable investment opportunities that would help rebalance the economy toward more sustainable medium-term growth will remain unlikely in the coming years. Chinese economic policymakers have been seeking to rein in unsustainable investment in infrastructure and the real estate sector amid macro-financial risks caused by a very high savings rate in the context of a declining profitability of investment. The very structure of Chinese investment, which is concentrated in infrastructure and housing, is generating declining and increasingly negative financial returns. A declining profitability of investment is to be expected, as China approaches the technological frontier and the marginal productivity of capital declines, and as highly profitable investment projects become scarcer. The recurring misallocation of capital or overinvestment
READ MOREQuarterly ForecastsMar 25, 2024 | 00:04 GMT
2024 Second-Quarter Forecast
During the quarter, elections in territories covering a joint population of more than 2 billion will determine the political and economic direction of some of the world’s largest economies.
READ MOREAssessmentsAug 10, 2023 | 19:49 GMT
Biden's Ban on AI, Quantum and Chip Investments Opens a New Theater in the U.S.-China Tech Rivalry
While a new U.S. executive order restricting AI, quantum and semiconductor investments in China is alone unlikely to have a significant impact, it is probably only a harbinger of future such restrictions that together could hamper China's technological rise. After many delays, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order on Aug. 9 that will eventually restrict some overseas investments by U.S. companies into China's technology sector. The regulations are more narrow in scope than the initial proposals and only cover certain investments into China's artificial intelligence (AI), quantum information technologies and semiconductor sectors. Even within those sectors, the restrictions do not cover the entire industry and instead focus on specific sub-technologies, such as investment into AI software for military purposes. For broader investments in those three sectors, as well as a list of other sectors, the mechanism merely sets up a notification process.
READ MOREAssessmentsJan 20, 2023 | 20:49 GMT
As Big Tech Investigations Ease, China Ramps Up Private Sector Oversight
Despite an easing of regulatory campaigns targeting major technology firms, new regulations and private sector oversight suggest Beijing plans to manage technological development with a firm hand for the foreseeable future. These changes will increase compliance and reputational risks for Chinese technology firms and their Western partners. Since early January, Chinese regulators and Communist Party leaders have called off long-standing investigations into the tech sector, partly to kickstart economic growth following China's economic slowdown of 2022. First, the head of China's Central Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) noted on Jan. 7 that the campaign to "rectify the financial businesses of 14 platform companies" had concluded. And the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection revealed on Jan. 10 that it had removed the platform economy from its list of focus areas for anti-corruption investigations in 2023. State investigations into particular companies have also wrapped up lately, as authorities on Jan. 13
READ MOREAssessmentsDec 8, 2022 | 21:14 GMT
How Much Longer Can Turkey Avoid a Financial Crisis?
Despite extremely high inflation and unorthodox monetary policies, Turkey has so far avoided a systemic financial crisis. But its government's continued focus on near-term economic growth over long-term sustainability will increase the risk of the country entering such a crisis in 2023. Turkey's economy grew quickly in 2022 as the country emerged strongly from the COVID-19 pandemic and absorbed the initial shocks of Russia's war in Ukraine. But this brought with it soaring inflation (which hit an eyewatering 84% last month) and a deeply weakened currency (which has lost almost one-third of its value year-on-year). Unlike other countries that have responded to the post-COVID-19 and Ukraine-related surge in global commodity prices by tightening their monetary policies, Turkey has pursued monetary easing -- resorting to orthodox and unorthodox measures to slow the lira's depreciation, which has increased the financial burden of companies with foreign-currency debt. But while this unconventional strategy has
READ MORESituation ReportJun 14, 2022 | 20:11 GMT
U.S.: Congress Looks to Quickly Pass Bipartisan Legislation on China Investment Screening
A bipartisan group of U.S. members of Congress has revised draft legislation on a review mechanism for outbound investment into China in strategic sectors, and it is aiming to pass the legislation ahead of the July 4 recess, The Wall Street Journal reported June 13.
READ MORESituation ReportMay 27, 2022 | 18:44 GMT
Philippines: Naval Forces Redeploy to Base Closer to Contested South China Sea
On May 17, the Philippine navy confirmed it was moving a guided-missile frigate and other sea and air forces to a base in the Subic Bay, which is 80 kilometers west of Manila, Kyodo News reported May 27.
READ MOREAssessmentsFeb 2, 2022 | 19:37 GMT
A Year Later, Myanmar’s Post-Coup Conflict Rages On
One year after the Feb. 1 military coup, Myanmar remains in the grips of a stalemated and increasingly deadly civil conflict that will continue to rattle its economy throughout 2022. Western companies will steer clear of the country amid the ongoing turmoil, though the wavering leadership of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) may tempt East Asian businesses to resume activities. Violence looks set to escalate in border regions and key interior cities in Myanmar as public support persists for the resistance’s National Unity Government, along with the loosely affiliated People’s Defense Force (PDF) guerrilla groups and various ethnic armed organizations (EAOs). Moreover, it seems likely that 2022 will unfold similarly to 2021, with more human rights abuses and outflows of Myanmar refugees into broader Asia. The junta seems unable to both quell resistance groups and revive legitimate general elections, the results of which originally spurred the military to
READ MOREAssessmentsAug 24, 2021 | 17:46 GMT
Why China Bailed Out Huarong and Not Evergrande
China’s move to bail out Huarong Asset Management Company while leaving the privately-owned property manager Evergrande Group to work out its financial issues may appear to send mixed messages on how the government addresses financial risks. But it also hints at Beijing’s goal of tackling real estate investment as a priority in risk management.
READ MORESituation ReportJun 25, 2021 | 21:31 GMT
Argentina: MSCI to Remove Country From MSCI Emerging Markets Index
MSCI Inc. (formerly Morgan Stanley Capital International) said it will remove Argentina from its emerging markets equity index in November, one and a half years after warning that exchange and capital controls indicate a lack of market accessibility, according to a June 25 announcement.
READ MOREGuidanceFeb 16, 2021 | 13:58 GMT
Where Is the U.S. Economy Going?
The U.S. economic outlook remains one of muddled optimism with the economy growing. Still, the expectations for renewed, sustainable growth should be tempered by the reality that COVID-19 has led to long-term malignancies in the U.S. and global economies.
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsMay 10, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
The Geopolitics of Postmodern Parenting
During the two months I recently spent away from work to fulfill my demographic duty, I found that most of my conversations with visitors followed the same pattern. The talk quickly turned from the standard cooing over my baby girl to an intensive debate over parental leave: how much time and flexibility to grant new parents in the workforce, how to reconcile career ambitions with the responsibilities of human procreation, how to compensate for the crazy cost of child care and how to boost birthrates. As a white-collar, taxpaying working mother in the United States, I had become one of the statistics I used to pore over as an analyst pondering the implications of aging and shrinking populations.
But you don't have to be a parent -- or an analyst, for that matter -- to care about this stuff. In fact, a lot of the global angst today over stagnant economic
READ MOREStratfor Senior Analyst for Global Economics at RANEJan 17, 2020 | 13:08 GMT
Michael Monderer
Michael Monderer was Stratfor's Senior Analyst for Global Economics at RANE focusing on the intersection between macroeconomics and geopolitics. Mr. Monderer covered issues related to country and political risk, including fiscal and monetary policies, balance of payments and capital flows, international debt, and currencies and exchange rates. Prior to joining Stratfor he was managing director at the G7 Group, Inc. and subsequently the G20 Group, LLC. Previously, Mr. Monderer was U.S. Treasury Department director for international debt policy and senior advisor to the undersecretary for international affairs, roles in which he negotiated international debt restructuring agreements with more than 60 countries.
Situation ReportDec 6, 2019 | 14:54 GMT
Philippines: U.S.-Australian Consortium Submits Bid for Philippines' Largest Shipyard
A U.S.-Australian consortium between equity firm Cerberus Capital Management, L.P. and shipbuilder Austal has submitted a formal bid to acquire the Philippines' largest shipyard at Subic Bay, the Nikkei Asian Review reported Dec. 5.
READ MOREAssessmentsDec 4, 2019 | 11:00 GMT
The Saudi Aramco IPO Will Hit Its Valuation Goal but Fail to Fund Vision 2030
As the Saudi Aramco initial public offering (IPO) culminates this week with the final pricing announcement on Dec. 5, some observers will tout it as a success for having reached the notional valuation range of $1.6 trillion to $1.7 trillion for the company set on Nov. 17 in the prospectus. In domestic Saudi political terms, the IPO will be seen as a major achievement for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and his Vision 2030 campaign. In reality, though, it will fail on two more important metrics. It will not bring in a substantial amount of foreign money to invest in the economic diversification projects envisioned under Vision 2030, other than $1.5 billion from Abu Dhabi. It also has not played out in accordance with the expectations of transparency and sound management laid out when the crown prince announced the idea more than three years ago in his landmark interview with
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsNov 1, 2019 | 09:30 GMT
By Mixing Tech and Human Rights Sanctions on China, the White House Crosses the Rubicon
Conspicuously absent from an emerging China-U.S. trade truce is the outstanding issue of U.S. export restrictions against Huawei. The omission reveals an uncomfortable and growing reality for U.S. tech firms: Politically convenient trade truces will come and go, but the strategic competition between the United States and China is deepening. Technology is a fundamental component of this broader rivalry, which also makes it a radioactive element in the trade talks and a prime target for China hawks advocating a decoupling of the U.S. and Chinese economies. At this stage of the competition, national security, human rights and sovereignty are getting mashed together along with American public attitudes on how to contend with China when it comes to shaping U.S. policy. As a result, the political room to negotiate on an issue like Huawei is narrowing by the day, driving a more hard-line U.S. policy toward China overall.
READ MOREBusinessAug 29, 2019 | 18:19 GMT
Stratfor Hires Veteran Security Advisor and Intelligence Expert as Vice President of Intelligence
Rebecca Lewis has joined Stratfor as the executive leader of its intelligence operations, geopolitical risk assessments and open-source collection program.
READ MOREAssessmentsNov 22, 2018 | 10:00 GMT
Ethiopia Offers Investors a Tantalizing, If Tainted, Promise
After a stunning 2018, Ethiopia is poised to make more waves in 2019. The country's ambitious prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, has neutralized threats to his rule at home and brokered a peace deal abroad. What's more, his promise of economic liberalization has generated significant interest from international investors and multinationals dreaming of entering a massive market that was largely closed to the rest of the world. But how Addis Ababa manages this process over the next year will have an outsized impact on its growth prospects in the years ahead.
READ MOREOn SecurityNov 13, 2018 | 10:00 GMT
Fines and Lawsuits Are Adding to the Cost of Corporate Data Breaches
Hackers around the world are constantly probing for network vulnerabilities and seem to score a major cyberattack almost weekly. In the past three weeks alone, HSBC Bank of London reported that its U.S.-based accounts were illegally accessed; hackers compromised an Australian military shipbuilder's personnel files; and Hong Kong airline Cathay Pacific confirmed a breach that affected up to 9.4 million passengers. These criminal and state-backed groups are trying to get personal information such as names, phone numbers, addresses, Social Security numbers, and credit card and banking information. They can sell that data to others who exploit it for financial gain, or use it for more targeted attacks – a national security, as well as a corporate, concern. Now governments in Europe and North America are pushing companies harder to shore up their defenses and fining those that are lax. On top of that, those that lose customers' information are increasingly
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsAug 2, 2018 | 09:00 GMT
AI and the Return of Great Power Competition
For better or worse, the advancement and diffusion of artificial intelligence technology will come to define this century. Whether that statement should fill your soul with terror or delight remains a matter of intense debate. Techno-idealists and doomsdayers will paint their respective utopian and dystopian visions of machine-kind, making the leap from what we know now as "narrow AI" to "general AI" to surpass human cognition within our lifetime. On the opposite end of the spectrum, yawning skeptics will point to Siri's slow intellect and Capt. Chesley "Sully" Sullenberger's human instinct to wave off AI chatter as a heap of hype not worth losing sleep over.
The fact is that the development of AI – a catch-all term that encompasses neural networks and machine learning and deep learning technologies – has the potential to fundamentally transform civilian and military life in the coming decades. Regardless of whether you're a businessman pondering
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