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On SecurityMar 5, 2019 | 10:15 GMT
Iraqis demand investigations March 1, 2019, in Baghdad into the discovery of a mass grave near the Islamic State's last bastion in eastern Syria.
The Erasure of the Islamic State's Caliphate Won't Ensure Its Defeat
The U.S.-allied Syrian Democratic Forces launched an operation March 1 backed by U.S. artillery and air support in an effort to defeat the remnant core fighters of the Islamic State in the last sliver of the militant group's self-declared "caliphate," the term it used to describe the territory in Syria and Iraq it conquered and governed under its austere interpretation of Sharia. With the destruction of the so-called caliphate imminent, many have begun to wonder if the jihadist group could ever recover. But this is the wrong question. Instead of asking whether the Islamic State core can recover, the proper question is whether the Islamic State core will be permitted to recover again. The difference between these two questions is subtle, but vitally important.
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United States
Iraq
Syria
Military & Security
The Jihadist Wars
On SecurityJan 22, 2019 | 11:00 GMT
A Somali soldier stands at the scene of a car bomb attack conducted by al Qaeda affiliate al Shabaab near the Peace Hotel in Mogadishu on Jan. 2, 2017.
Tracking Jihadist Movements in 2019: Al Qaeda
The jihadist movement is a global insurgency – not just a terrorist phenomenon. Today, most of the world's jihadist groups have affiliated themselves with one of two poles: al Qaeda or the Islamic State. This seeming unity, however, belies numerous disagreements about how to pursue jihad. Given these differences, it is little surprise that there is a great deal of variance among different groups – even among those under the same al Qaeda or Islamic State umbrella. In this, some "franchises" stick close to the philosophies and guidance provided by the nominal parent organization, while others stray further afield. Here's a look at what how al Qaeda's various franchises fared in 2018 and what we can expect from them in the year to come.
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Mali
Somalia
Algeria
Syria
Yemen
Military & Security
The Jihadist Wars
Stratfor Threat Lens
AssessmentsApr 4, 2018 | 21:37 GMT
A convoy of U.S. armored vehicles passes through a village near Manbij, Syria, during March 2017.
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly of a U.S. Pullout From Syria
If President Donald Trump gets his way, the United States will be soon heading for the door in Syria. At a March 29 rally, the president said that troops will be leaving "very soon." And about a week later, The Washington Post reported that Trump had instructed the Department of Defense to draw up exit plans, but he did not set a deadline. The likelihood of a pullout is uncertain because the Pentagon, the State Department and other parts of the U.S. government are strongly arguing that the United States needs to remain in Syria. Furthermore, a withdrawal will create power vacuums, affect relations with enemies and allies, and weaken U.S. influence in the region.
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United States
Russia
Iran
Syria
Turkey
AssessmentsJun 30, 2016 | 09:17 GMT
Assessing the Jihadist Threat in Egypt: Mainland Egypt
Assessing the Jihadist Threat in Egypt: Mainland Egypt
The activities of radical jihadist groups have died down in mainland Egypt in recent months, but that does not mean the country's security situation is settled. Low-level attacks against police officers and other targets, for example, still occur. But between government crackdowns and internal disagreements, Egyptian jihadist groups' power to conduct sophisticated, large-scale operations appears to have been suppressed.
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Egypt
Libya
Military & Security
Politics
Military & Security
AssessmentsJun 29, 2016 | 09:15 GMT
Examining the Jihadist Threat in Egypt
Assessing the Jihadist Threat in Egypt: The Sinai Peninsula
The history of radical Islamism in Egypt is long and bloody. But in the past few years, the threat posed by Egyptian jihadists has reached new heights. Many of the country's jihadists, held captive under former President Hosni Mubarak, were freed during the revolution that led to his ouster in 2011. These militants went on to play a leading role in forming groups such as Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, which by late 2013 had become the most active and deadly terrorist group in Egypt. Of course, any attempt to examine Egypt's militant threat must first acknowledge the vast difference between the threat environment on the Sinai Peninsula and that of mainland Egypt. The former is far more of an insurgency; Sinai militants employ hit-and-run attacks, ambushes, roadside bombings and indirect-fire attacks with rockets and mortars. By contrast, the militant threat on the mainland tends to more closely resemble urban terrorism.
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Egypt
Libya
Military & Security
Politics
Military & Security
AssessmentsJun 2, 2016 | 09:15 GMT
Southeast Asia's Treacherous Waters
Southeast Asia's Treacherous Waters
States in and outside Southeast Asia have paid less attention to security conditions in the tri-border area -- maritime and territorial spaces covering waters of Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines -- where piracy, kidnappings, terrorist attacks and criminal activities have threatened fishing and trade flows. In light of recent maritime incidents, the tri-border states are now seeking to base their collaboration on the model that has served the Straits of Malacca to combat piracy with coordinated patrols, information sharing and incident management. If successful, expanded maritime security cooperation between Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines may blossom into collaboration on other issues, such as territorial disputes in the South China Sea or regional activities of powers outside the region. But weak state control over territory, geographic barriers, poor coast guard capabilities and concerns about sovereignty will make effective multilateral maritime security efforts difficult.
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Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Economics
Military & Security
Southeast Asia: Burdened by Consensus
South Asian Militancy
AssessmentsMar 16, 2011 | 18:03 GMT
Jakarta Book Bombs and Militant Decline
Three explosive devices addressed to two moderate Islamic activists and a former counterterrorism officer in Jakarta were discovered in Jakarta March 15. Indonesian jihadist groups are most likely to blame.
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