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AssessmentsJun 11, 2019 | 07:17 GMT
Cargo trucks line up a the Otay commercial crossing in Tijuana, Baja California, in Mexico.
Despite a Deal on Migration, a Tariff Threat Still Hangs Over Mexico
An agreement by Mexico to step up its efforts to stem migration flows from Central America and into the United States has deflected the White House threat to impose tariffs of up to 25 percent on its exports. But uncertainty surrounding the plan to penalize Mexico for failing to hold up its end of the deal to U.S. President Donald Trump's satisfaction persists. And that uncertainty will have real effects on Mexico's bottom line, as well as on the Mexican administration's efforts to consolidate power. Details of the agreement with Mexico's government to curb illegal migration northward across the Mexico-Guatemala border include a commitment by the Mexican government to assign 6,000 National Guard troops to border enforcement duties. Those personnel would complement the thousands of federal police, soldiers and state police already performing those duties there. Mexico also agreed that migrants requesting asylum in the United States could be returned
AssessmentsDec 6, 2018 | 06:30 GMT
A picture showing Honduran migrants gathering on the Mexican side of the U.S.-Mexico border fence near Tijuana after unsuccessfully attempting to cross into the United States, Dec 1.
What to Expect from AMLO on Immigration
Mexico has a new government going into 2019, but the country's approach to migration will remain largely the same. New Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's approach to illegal migration will be similar to his predecessors, meaning Mexican authorities will continue detaining and deporting tens of thousands of migrants from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador each month. Lopez Obrador will also press the United States and Canada to help fund social programs in Central America designed to offer citizens greater economic opportunities. And maintaining the status quo on immigration allows Mexico's president to avoid a wider political confrontation with Washington.
PodcastsJun 2, 2017 | 00:00 GMT
A team of Japanese players represent their country at the 2017 World Baseball Classic in 2017.
The Geopolitics of Baseball
We explore the geopolitics of baseball with Professors Tolga Ozyurtcu and Thomas Hunt from the Department of Kinesiology and Health Education at The University of Texas at Austin.
AssessmentsAug 19, 2016 | 17:45 GMT
In Mexico, Teacher Protests Will Intensify
In Mexico, Teacher Protests Will Intensify
A dissident faction within Mexico's National Educational Workers' Union said Aug. 18 that not only will it continue its monthslong strike, but new protests can be expected from Aug. 22. The Mexican government is in negotiations with the faction, known as the National Coordinator of Education Workers (CNTE), to try to resolve differences over Mexico's education reform. The government says proposed reforms will standardize and improve public education, but the teachers' union considers such moves an attempt to privatize Mexico's education system at the expense of teachers themselves. So far, the CNTE has been unwilling to accept the government compromises on offer, including bonus payments to teachers and the release of CNTE members currently jailed in Oaxaca. The faction stated that it will not rest until the entire reform is suspended.
AssessmentsJun 4, 2016 | 13:26 GMT
Mexico’s Gubernatorial Elections Could Predict Presidency
Mexico's Gubernatorial Elections Could Presage Presidency
Gubernatorial elections will take place in 12 of Mexico's 31 states on June 5. These will provide a measure of the popularity of the ruling Revolutionary Institutional Party (PRI) in advance of the 2018 presidential race. If opinion polls are accurate, the PRI -- which has historically dominated state-level elections -- holds an advantage in seven states, but its grasp on the remainder is far from solid.
AssessmentsJan 25, 2016 | 09:15 GMT
Special Report: Mexico's Cartels Will Continue to Erode in 2016
Mexican authorities have recaptured Sinaloa cartel leader Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman Loera, and the media have had a field day, but, as with his escape, Mexico's cartel landscape remains pretty much unchanged. Fissures and infighting among drug cartels are redefining the drug trade -- and the fight against it. As indicated in our 2015 Cartel Annual update, Stratfor categorizes Mexican organized criminal groups by the distinct geographic areas from which they emerged, and it is clear that the trajectories of Mexico's three regional organized crime umbrellas -- Sinaloa state, Tamaulipas state and Tierra Caliente -- are set: All will continue their decentralization and division in 2016.
AssessmentsOct 23, 2015 | 20:17 GMT
Mexico Braces for Hurricane Patricia
Mexico Braces for Hurricane Patricia
Hurricane Patricia poses a threat to trade, tourism and security on Mexico's western coast. Landfall is imminent for the hurricane, a Category 5 storm, in Jalisco state on Mexico's western coast and then head northward. Evacuations are underway along the coast, and Mexican authorities have declared a state of emergency for 56 municipalities in the storm's path in Colima, Nayarit and Jalisco states. The storm not only threatens life and property in its path, it also bears major economic consequences for Mexico and tangentially for the United States.
Quarterly ForecastsJul 8, 2015 | 09:30 GMT
Stratfor said at the beginning of 2015 that this would be the year when Europe would be knocked out of complacency. The third quarter is when the harsh reality of an unraveling eurozone confronts Berlin and the eurozone at large.
2015 Third-Quarter Forecast
Stratfor said at the beginning of 2015 that this would be the year when Europe would be knocked out of complacency. The third quarter is when the harsh reality of an unraveling eurozone confronts Berlin and the eurozone at large.
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