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AssessmentsOct 21, 2019 | 13:10 GMT
Posters for Renamo's presidential candidate, Ossufo Momade, line a wall ahead of Mozambique's Oct. 15 polls.
In Mozambique, a Rigged Election Risks Opening Pandora's Box
The ballots from Mozambique's Oct. 15 general election are still being tallied. But all evidence so far points to another sizable victory for the Mozambique Liberation Front, commonly referred to as Frelimo. Such an outcome was expected, given that the ruling party's dominance over the country's political and economic systems since the mid-1970s. Indeed, despite the introduction of multiparty democracy decades ago, Frelimo continues to reign over the country -- much to the chagrin of the militant Mozambique National Resistance Movement (Renamo).  Despite Maputo's recent peace deal with Renamo, mounting evidence of electoral misconduct indicate the Frelimo government is still waging a covert war against its chief political rival. In response, Renamo could send its fighters back to battle in Mozambique's central regions, which would risk distracting Maputo from a much greater threat brewing up north. 
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AssessmentsAug 19, 2019 | 09:00 GMT
Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi (left) and Mozambican National Resistance leader Ossufo Momade display the cease-fire agreement they signed in Maputo on Aug. 6, 2019.
Can Mozambique Shield Its Energy Investments From Escalating Terrorism?
Mozambique's government recently made headlines by signing a peace agreement with the longtime rebel group, Mozambican National Resistance. The deal has since been hailed as a harbinger for greater stability in the country. But a new insurgency in Mozambique's far north now poses a much greater threat, given its proximity to the East African nation's burgeoning offshore energy sector. Since late 2017, unknown assailants have attacked dozens of villages and some government positions in Mozambique's northern Cabo Delgado province. The attackers have yet to list any public demands, though there are rumors that they may have regional or international jihadist connections. But while much remains unknown, understanding the environment from which the conflict has emerged could provide hints as to what might be driving it -- and whether the government will be able to stop it before foreign oil and gas firms in the region start to pull their operations.
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SnapshotsFeb 22, 2019 | 20:10 GMT
Mozambique: A Brazen Attack on Anadarko Could Spell Trouble for Outside Companies
Unidentified gunmen carried out at least two attacks on Anadarko Petroleum Corp. employees Feb. 21 in northern Mozambique, Bloomberg reported Feb. 22. In the first attack, about 15 gunmen opened fire on a convoy of contractors and injured four to six of them about 5 p.m. as they were returning to a camp near Palma. In the second attack, a contractor working on a nearby airstrip for the company was killed. Some reports said the worker at the airstrip had been beheaded, a tactic associated with local militant group Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Hamo.
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On SecurityJun 19, 2018 | 09:45 GMT
A picture shows internally displaced people and residents unload a truck with goods of first necessity, food and blankets in Naunde, northern Mozambique on June 13, after fleeing the recent attacks.
Gauging an Emerging Jihadist Threat in Mozambique
They've been around for some time, but it was only late last month that they started to grab more of the world's attention. On May 27, the Islamist militant group Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Hamo attacked Monjane, a town in northern Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province, beheading 10 people. But the group has been active for months, attacking police stations, silencing opponents, robbing banks, looting weapons and burning villages. And given that Cabo Delgado just happens to hold vast reserves of natural gas, the emergence of Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Hamo doesn't just affect Mozambique but the global energy industry. One week after I wrote about the factors to consider when gauging the success of counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations against a militant group, now is the perfect opportunity to assess how Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Hamo stacks up against the measurement criteria.
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AssessmentsOct 30, 2017 | 09:00 GMT
Guyana is a member of Petrocaribe, an alliance between Venezuela and Caribbean countries. The alliance's third summit was held in Caracas, Venezuela, in 2007.
What Lies Beneath Guyana's Petroleum Future
Until a few years ago, Guyana was known as a sparsely populated economic backwater on South America's Caribbean coastline. Then ExxonMobil announced a series of discoveries at its prospects off the Guyanese coast, revealing the latest find in early October. Now the country is poised to receive a windfall from oil and natural gas production. But as Guyana's government eagerly awaits what it hopes will be an oil-rich future, the country as a whole will reap fewer economic rewards than it might seem.
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AssessmentsMay 11, 2017 | 09:15 GMT
The Shifting Tides of Energy Reform in Mexico and Brazil
Just a decade ago, Brazil had achieved such success liberalizing its oil and gas sector, an endeavor it launched in 1995, that it had become the gold standard for energy reform. Mexico, on the other hand, was struggling to push through measures that would enable its oil industry to keep growing. But in the ensuing years, the Brazilian government took a sharp turn toward resource nationalism as Mexico City made strides toward liberalizing its own energy sector. And the tables could turn yet again, perhaps as soon as 2018, when Mexico will hold its next presidential election. International oil companies have watched the tides of leftism, nationalism and protectionism ebb and flow in Latin America over the years, and this cycle will continue to play out in the region's leading oil producers.
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