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AssessmentsJun 27, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
Refugees and migrants stand at a port upon arriving at the Greek island of Lesbos on March 7, 2020.
Summer Weather Will Rekindle Europe's Migration Debate
The summer months will see an uptick in the arrival of migrants to Europe by sea and land, though a repetition of the 2015 crisis is unlikely. Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 crisis, however, even a moderate increase in migrants will risk further destabilizing the Continent’s already fraught economic and political environment.  The European Union will increase controls of its external borders and seek to improve the expulsion irregular migrants, but the introduction of mandatory quotas to more evenly distribute migrants across the bloc is improbable. This means the migration burden will continue to fall on Mediterranean states (who are already facing some of the deepest recessions due to COVID-19), as well as the bloc’s largest economies such as Germany. The Turkish-Greek border, in particular, will become especially volatile due to Ankara’s ongoing disputes with both Brussels and Athens.
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SnapshotsJun 24, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
Seeking a Political Win, Trump Takes Aim at Immigration Visas
After weeks of speculation, U.S. President Donald Trump finally issued a presidential proclamation on June 22 outlining visa changes that will significantly impede the ability of U.S. tech companies and universities to attract international talent and investment. Should they become permanent, the changes could place the United States' competitive advantage as a business hub in jeopardy by making U.S. visa programs more difficult for foreigners to access. 
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AssessmentsJun 23, 2020 | 18:03 GMT
A worker goes down a construction ladder at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia on Dec. 26, 2019.
Egypt's Losing Battle on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
The failure of last week's negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam means that the initial filling of the $4 billion hydroelectric dam on the Blue Nile will likely occur without an agreement between Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia. Egypt will attempt, and likely fail, to bring international pressure to bear on Ethiopia in order to ensure the giant new dam doesn't affect the flow of the Nile Basin river system, which is Cairo's main source of water. But while Egypt's technical coordination on the project is unavoidable, Cairo's waning influence over North Africa's water distribution will make its overall position on the Nile less secure over time.
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SnapshotsJun 12, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
Postelection Turmoil Could Jeopardize Guyana's Oil Windfall
Guyana's postelection political battle could delay approvals for the government's pending oil and gas projects, should it morph into a prolonged crisis and deepen rifts between the country's two ethnic groups. Guyana is no stranger to elections marred by fraud allegations. But with the small South American country set to become the world's largest per capita oil producer in the coming years, the outcome of its latest contested ballot will decide which party will benefit from the initial windfall of new income -- and with it, the opportunity to cement a long-term electoral advantage.
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ReflectionsJun 10, 2020 | 17:06 GMT
A woman walks past closed shopfronts in what would be a normally busy fashion district in Los Angeles, California, on May 4, 2020.
Conflicting Data Muddies the U.S. Economic Outlook
The United States and other governments around the world face difficult policy decisions on fiscal stimulus amid great uncertainty regarding the course of their economies in light of the global COVID-19 crisis. But as evidenced by the conflicting data in the latest jobs report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), it's proving difficult to find numbers and models that are both timely and use reliable data in order to gauge when economies will begin coming out of recovery on their own. Economic forecasts will be increasingly put under the microscope, making it important to understand what these predictions do and don't tell us.
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AssessmentsJun 9, 2020 | 19:38 GMT
Pro-democracy protesters shine the flashlights on their cellphones as they take part in a rally in Hong Kong on June 9, 2020.
Hong Kong’s Election Lights the Fuse for Another Wave of Unrest
A year after the city's extradition bill prompted more than a million people to take to the streets in June 2019, marking a watershed moment in last year's protests, Hong Kong's political crisis is heating up once again. The next three months in Hong Kong will see protests kick back into high gear as pro-Beijing and pro-democracy camps focus on winning Legislative Council elections planned for September. The central government in mainland China will fast-track its controversial national security laws ahead of the polls to increase control over protestors and politicians, while the regional Hong Kong government will work to fulfill its side of the legislation. The White House, meanwhile, will pressure China to ease back on its encroachment in Hong Kong by possibly stripping away the city's special tariff treatment, but will weigh carefully whether to escalate further to financial measures that would cripple Hong Kong's status as a business hub
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AssessmentsJun 8, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
Members of the Saudi special forces stand aboard a landing ship off the coast of Bahrain during a military exercise in the Persian Gulf on Nov. 5, 2019.
Austerity Will Force Saudi Arabia to Revise Its Military Priorities
Facing severe budgetary strain due to COVID-19 and low oil prices, Saudi Arabia will likely reduce its arms purchases, while avoiding spending cuts that could impede its internal security or the development of its defense sector. Riyadh will be careful not to trim spending that hampers the monarchy’s internal security or goal of building its domestic defense production capacity. Saudi leadership will calibrate its decisions and seek to limit damage to its Vision 2030 goals, as it keeps an eye on the U.S. presidential election and plans for increasing U.S. scrutiny of its human rights and security policies.
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SnapshotsJun 4, 2020 | 19:36 GMT
With a Satellite Launch, Russia Beefs up Its Nuclear Deterrent
Russia managed to restore a significant element of its nuclear deterrent by regaining a minimal space-based early warning capability when its most recent Tundra satellite became operational following a May 22 launch. Russia's nuclear deterrent capability, which includes defensive measures such as this early-warning capability, is a core to its bid for great power status.
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On GeopoliticsJun 3, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi answers questions during a video press conference on May 24, 2020, in Beijing, China.
China’s ‘Wolf Warrior’ Diplomacy Risks Backfiring on Beijing
The growing global backlash against China's involvement in both the COVID-19 pandemic and Hong Kong's political crisis is fueling a new brand of "wolf warrior" diplomacy in Beijing based on a nationalistic Chinese movie. This more aggressive stance abroad exposes a sense of vulnerability in Beijing, and poses two potential risks for the regime -- the first is that the tactic backfires overseas, and the second, and perhaps more problematic, is that Beijing loses control of the nationalistic narrative.
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AssessmentsJun 1, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A satellite image shows the arrival of Russian fighter jets at an air base in Libya controlled by Khalifa Hifter's rebel army.
Russia Deepens Its Commitment to Libya’s War -- and Political Future
Russia's deepening support for the Libyan National Army (LNA) proves the Kremlin views LNA leader Khalifa Hifter as crucial to its greater North African and Mediterranean strategy, and could grant Moscow the upper hand in shaping the war-torn country's political future. The U.S. military, among others, recently released photos confirming the arrival of a fleet of Russian fighter jets at two LNA-controlled air bases in Libya. The deployment will make it more difficult for the U.N.-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) to make further military gains beyond Tripolitania. But perhaps most importantly, Russia's growing involvement in Libya's civil war -- alongside Turkey's continued support for the GNA -- will leave Moscow and Ankara at the helm of any potential negotiations between Eastern and Western Libya, much to the dismay of those in Europe and the United States. 
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GuidanceMay 29, 2020 | 22:34 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks about U.S. relations with China at the White House on May 29, 2020.
U.S. Threats to Overhaul Hong Kong Policy Intensify China Confrontation
U.S. President Donald Trump's May 29 announcements adjusting U.S. policy toward China could derail the phase one U.S.-China trade deal if fully implemented, but they are unlikely to deter Beijing's determination to implement new Hong Kong national security legislation -- and no matter what, Hong Kong protest activity will increase in the coming months.
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AssessmentsMay 28, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A photo of Argentina's central bank headquarters in Buenos Aires.
Argentina's Latest Default Doesn't Have to Mean Another Economic Collapse
Argentina's debt restructuring negotiations with creditors appear stuck, but the recent extension of the country's self-imposed deadline for talks with private debt bondholders keeps alive the possibility of reaching some form of a long-term deal. Ultimately, however, debt restructuring will not by itself change the fiscal and monetary policies that initially led to Argentina overborrowing. Whether the country's default again transforms into another full-fledged economic crisis will instead hinge on its government's willingness to reach a compromise with bondholders, as well as produce a credible, long-term economic growth plan that remedies the country's currently untenable levels of public spending. 
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AssessmentsMay 27, 2020 | 16:31 GMT
A statue depicting the euro is pictured outside the headquarters of the European Central Bank, which serves as the central bank of the 19 EU countries within the eurozone, in Frankfurt, Germany.
Will COVID-19 Be the Eurozone’s Undoing?
COVID-19 will saddle the eurozone with financial and political risks for years to come, testing the economic and institutional resilience of the currency area. High debt and deficit levels will increase the probability of sovereign defaults, especially in Southern Europe, as high unemployment levels create fertile ground for social unrest and the resurgence of destabilizing nationalist and anti-establishment political parties across the Continent. 
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AssessmentsMay 25, 2020 | 12:48 GMT
Remembering America's Allies on Memorial Day
Remembering America's Allies on Memorial Day
This year on Memorial Day, Stratfor would like to consider the countless individuals from across the globe who have worked and fought alongside the U.S. military, with this reflection originally penned in 2016. Memorial Day in the United States is dedicated to remembering the men and women who served and who died in service to country and mission. Yet these dedicated personnel are not alone; they are assisted by other foreign nations and by the security forces and civilian residents of the country in which the U.S. military is operating. Many brave individuals continue to partner with the United States and its allies. Many have returned to their normal lives in some semblance of peace. Some have left their homeland through choice or coercion, and still more have laid down their lives in pursuit of a better tomorrow.
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SnapshotsMay 18, 2020 | 18:49 GMT
A New, and Likely Less Hawkish, Government Takes Office in Israel
After more than a year of unprecedented political gridlock, a legitimate government has finally taken office in Israel. On May 17, Israel's parliament approved Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Blue and White party leader Benny Gantz's power-sharing agreement to form an emergency coalition in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis. Under the deal, Netanyahu will remain prime minister and Gantz will take the role of defense minister, along with the new role of "alternate prime minister." While both leaders see eye-to-eye on many issues, they disagree on Israel's approach to Iran. This could be a future point of contention within the nascent government, as Gantz's history suggests he won't take Netanyahu's same hawkish approach against Iran's nuclear program. With political and legal checks on Netanyahu's powers, Gantz's new role as defense minister (and prime minister-in-waiting) will lower the likelihood of Israel directly attacking Iran by granting him the additional political
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