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AssessmentsMar 13, 2026 | 20:22 GMT
A digital illustration of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia’s national flags.
In a War With Iran, the Pakistani-Saudi Defense Pact Has Limits
Despite the two countries' mutual defense agreement, Pakistan will likely avoid direct military intervention in support of Saudi Arabia against Iranian strikes and instead limit its role to defensive and technical support given the risk of Iranian retaliation, domestic sectarian tensions, economic pressures and Pakistan's ongoing conflict with the Afghan Taliban; yet a more active role from Islamabad remains possible if Iranian attacks were to seriously threaten Saudi energy infrastructure or the kingdom's broader stability. Following Iran's recent missile and drone strikes on Saudi territory, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have been coordinating closely in the context of their new mutual defense agreement, signed in September. On March 7, Pakistan's army chief, Gen. Asim Munir, met with Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman in Riyadh to discuss potential joint actions under the agreement, which stipulates that an attack on one country is considered an attack on both. Days later, on
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Iran
Saudi Arabia
Pakistan
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 12, 2026 | 19:55 GMT
Smoke and flames rise at the site of airstrikes on an oil depot in Tehran, Iran, on March 7, 2026.
Strategic Risks and Political Hurdles for a U.S. Ground War in Iran
In an extended conflict with Iran, the United States could escalate by deploying ground forces ranging from limited commando raids to a full-scale invasion. But while small special operations missions are the most viable option, larger incursions or regime-change operations would face severe logistical, political and strategic risks and remain unlikely without a major shift in regional and U.S. domestic support. With the air war unlikely to result in a decisive victory for either side, the United States has threatened to further escalate with ground operations inside Iran, as President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he does not want to take any options off the table. A ground operation could run the gamut, from a limited commando raid with narrow and specific objectives with a few dozen forces, to an incursion with hundreds of thousands of soldiers and limited regional diplomatic buy-in, to a full-scale invasion to topple the regime,
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United States
Iran
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportMar 12, 2026 | 15:53 GMT
MENA: Israel Is Poised To Escalate Against Lebanon as Strikes on Iran Continue
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that if Lebanon does not prevent Hezbollah from attacking Israel, Israel "will take the territory and do it ourselves," and Katz, along with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ordered the Israeli military to prepare for an expanded operation, Reuters reported on March 12.
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United States
Iran
Israel
Lebanon
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Situation ReportMar 11, 2026 | 18:54 GMT
India, China: India To Partially Ease FDI Scrutiny for China
On March 10, India eased rules for investments from countries with which it shares a land border, allowing automatic approval for non-controlling stakes of up to 10% with compliance requirements, and establishing a 60-day approval timeline for investments in sectors such as electronic components, rare earth magnets and wafers, Bloomberg reported on March 11.
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China
India
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsMar 11, 2026 | 18:20 GMT
People attend the funeral of a person killed during an Iranian drone attack on a high-rise apartment building in Bahrain's capital, Manama, on March 10, 2026.
Iran War Exposes Bahrain to Fiscal Risks, Sectarian Tensions
The Iran war risks fueling sectarian tensions in Bahrain and further straining its economy due to disruptions to energy and aluminum exports. Other Gulf countries may choose security and economic intervention to stabilize the country, with a financial package potentially conditioned on further fiscal consolidation efforts. Bahraini authorities have been cracking down on protesters and government critics following domestic protests after the Feb. 28 assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran. The protests, a rare instance of civil unrest in the kingdom, have involved at least hundreds of participants from the majority Shiite Bahrain population and extended to cities and villages throughout the country. While the majority of protests were peaceful, some protesters threw Molotov cocktails and clashed with Bahraini security forces, resulting in several dozen arrests. Although Bahraini authorities have limited publicity of the demonstrations, security forces' arrests and government measures
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Bahrain
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
AssessmentsMar 11, 2026 | 15:46 GMT
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney walks with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Canberra, Australia, on March 5, 2026.
The Promise and Limitations of Canada's Push to Diversify Strategic Partnerships
Canada's push to deepen ties with India, Australia and Japan reflects an effort to reduce economic and security dependence on the United States, yet this plan faces varying constraints and any successes may ultimately strengthen the same U.S.-centered economic and security system Ottawa is trying to hedge against. From Feb. 27 to March 6, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visited India, Australia and Japan to expand economic, technological and security cooperation. During the trip, Canada and each of the three governments announced a range of initiatives covering trade negotiations, energy cooperation, investment coordination, critical minerals supply chains, defense dialogue and emerging technologies. In India, Carney met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi to advance bilateral economic cooperation and launch new negotiations toward a comprehensive trade agreement, while also announcing commercial deals and new cooperation frameworks in energy, defense and technology. Carney then traveled to Australia, where he met with Prime Minister
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Canada
United States
Australia
Japan
India
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 10, 2026 | 16:38 GMT
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un speaks during the Ninth Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea in Pyongyang, North Korea, on Feb. 22, 2026.
North Korea's Party Congress Points to Diplomatic Window of Opportunity
A key party meeting highlights a rare opportunity for North Korea to engage diplomatically with Russia and the United States, and to a lesser extent China and South Korea, to help overcome its economic isolation, though the low risk of military clashes on the peninsula will persist. On Feb. 26, North Korea's dominant Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) concluded its quinquennial Party Congress, which spanned seven days in Pyongyang. Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un was re-elected as general secretary of the WPK in an entirely predetermined voting process, ostensibly extending his already 14-year reign by another five years. Kim also replaced 52% of members of the WPK's Central Committee, the primary decision-making body for the party in the central government, along with 79% of alternate members, unusually high shares for a congress. Most of the replacements were technocrats and party members who rose up in the ranks of the WPK
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United States
China
North Korea
South Korea
Russia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 10, 2026 | 15:54 GMT
German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil talks to the media before the start of an Eurogroup ministers meeting at the EU headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on March 9, 2026.
A European Capital Markets Union: Incremental Progress and Enduring Obstacles
While the European Union will make incremental progress on a capital markets union (CMU) in the coming years, a fully unified market remains unlikely in the short to medium term, which will limit immediate reductions in financing costs and strategic autonomy but will gradually improve access to capital, market efficiency and resilience for European businesses over time. In recent months, efforts by the European Union to advance its long-standing CMU project have gained renewed urgency amid rising geopolitical risk, weak economic growth and mounting pressure to improve financing conditions for European businesses. Most recently, in a Feb. 19 interview with The Wall Street Journal, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde reiterated the need to establish a CMU to lower financing costs for European companies and increase European competitiveness. The CMU seeks to create a single, integrated capital market across all EU member states by harmonizing rules and legislation to facilitate
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Europe
Economics
Situation ReportMar 10, 2026 | 15:20 GMT
MENA: Trump Says Iran War To End Soon, But Bombing Continues Throughout the Region
U.S. President Donald Trump said the Iran war is "very complete, pretty much" and also said he is considering taking over the Strait of Hormuz to enable maritime shipping -- especially oil exports -- to resume and threatened greater retaliation against Iran if it tried to stop oil shipments, AP reported on March 9.
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United States
Iran
Israel
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
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