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AssessmentsJul 1, 2025 | 15:42 GMT
Argentina's economy minister Luis Caputo (L) and Argentine President Javier Milei walk from the Casa Rosada Presidential Palace after a meeting on April 14, 2025.
The Challenges Facing Argentina's New IMF Program
Argentina has made significant strides in terms of macroeconomic stabilization and, bolstered by a new IMF program, the country's short-term outlook remains broadly favorable, despite approaching legislative elections in October and the concomitant risk of policy slippage. Since taking office in December 2023, the government of President Javier Milei has implemented a very substantial fiscal adjustment and broader structural reform. This enabled Argentina to reach a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April, which commits the government to continued fiscal discipline, a liberalization of exchange rate policies, and structural reform. The new IMF program will also provide Argentina with foreign-exchange liquidity, thus making the country's external financing outlook more manageable. As a condition necessary to secure the IMF program, Argentina abolished its crawling peg exchange rate regime, which risked exacerbating peso overvaluation and balance-of-payments problems. The government has adopted a floating foreign exchange regime within a pre-determined
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Argentina
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsApr 29, 2025 | 20:59 GMT
An Indian paramilitary trooper patrols a market area in Pahalgam, south of Srinagar, in India-held Kashmir, on April 29, 2025.
The Drivers and Constraints to a Wider India-Pakistan Conflict
India will likely launch limited military strikes against Pakistan in the coming days in retaliation for the deadly April 22 attack in Kashmir, increasing the risk of escalation despite both sides' desire to avoid a full-scale war and international pressure to de-escalate. On April 28, India and Pakistan entered their fifth consecutive day of cross-border gunfire, following India's accusations that Pakistan was involved in the April 22 militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed 26 civilians and injured 17 others. The Resistance Front -- a militant group India accuses of being a front for the Pakistani militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba -- initially claimed responsibility for the attack, which it says was in opposition to India sending more than 85,000 "outsiders" to Kashmir to promote "demographic change." The Resistance Front, which formed in the wake of India's contentious 2019 revocation of Kashmir's autonomy, has claimed sporadic attacks on non-locals in the region
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India
Pakistan
Military & Security
AssessmentsApr 23, 2025 | 20:49 GMT
Trucks travel by the U.S.-Mexico border after crossing the border into the United States at Otay Mesa, California, on April 2, 2025.
The Buffers That Will Help Mexico Navigate Tariff Turbulence
U.S. tariffs will likely hurt Mexico in the short term, but should current trade dynamics persist, the country's partial duty-free access access to the U.S. market will help Mexico gain an edge over its competitors, likely attracting investments that help offset damage caused by U.S. protectionism. As of April 23, Mexico is facing a 25% tariff on all exports to the United States that do not comply with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which accounted for roughly half of Mexico's exports to the United States in 2024. Mexico's steel and aluminum, as well as cars and auto parts, are also subject to 25% tariffs that Washington has enacted on all countries, while the White House announced on April 14 that it will impose 21% duties on Mexican tomatoes starting July 14. On April 3, one day after U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled his "reciprocal tariffs," Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Mexico
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Mexico
United States
China
Economics
Global Trade
Politics
AssessmentsApr 22, 2025 | 20:44 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade
The Geopolitics of Trade: The Impact of U.S. Tariffs on South Korea and Japan
U.S. tariffs on South Korea and Japan could sway upcoming leadership contests in both countries, modestly increase their trade with China and erode U.S.-South Korea defense cooperation, but they are unlikely to undermine U.S.-Japan security ties. From April 16-18, Japanese and U.S. officials held trade negotiations in Washington, and South Korean representatives are expected to travel to the United States in the coming days to begin their own talks. These moves come after U.S. President Donald Trump on April 9 granted a 90-day pause to "reciprocal" tariffs on most countries -- including tariffs of 24% on Japan and 26% on South Korea -- bringing the reciprocal tariff down to 10% for all countries except China. This reprieve did not, however, apply to imported vehicles or auto parts, key export industries in both South Korea and Japan that rely heavily on exports to the U.S. market. Those goods were subjected to
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United States
China
Japan
South Korea
Economics
Global Trade
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsApr 14, 2025 | 19:57 GMT
Australian Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (L) debates Liberal opposition leader Peter Dutton on April 8, 2025, in Sydney, Australia.
Australia's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications
Australia will hold a federal general election on May 3 after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of the incumbent Australian Labor Party, or ALP, called new elections on March 28, hoping to take advantage of the federal budget's release to secure a bump in popularity ahead of the polls. The election will determine whether the ALP, led by Albanese, secures a second three-year House term, or whether the Liberal-National coalition, or LNC, returns to power after one term in opposition. Half the Senate will also be up for election, with the outcome critical to the next government's ability to pass legislation.
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Australia
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 19, 2025 | 20:39 GMT
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa arrives at a briefing at his African National Congress (ANC) party's headquarters in Johannesburg on May 13, 2024.
Trump Turns Up the Heat on South Africa
South Africa's worsening relations with the United States will likely result in the loss of duty-free access to the U.S. market for key industries and risk dampening investor confidence due to targeted U.S. sanctions, which may even undermine the country's civil nuclear power sector, depending on the scale and scope of U.S. pressure. On March 14, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the South African ambassador to the United States, Ebrahim Rasool, was ''no longer welcome'' in the country after the diplomat criticized U.S. President Donald Trump in a webinar. Rasool's expulsion came amid escalating U.S. pressure on South Africa since Trump took office on Jan. 20. On Feb. 7, Trump signed an executive order suspending all U.S. development aid to South Africa, accusing its government of subjecting white Afrikaners to ''race-based discrimination, including racially discriminatory property confiscation.'' The order also accused the South African government of undermining
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South Africa
United States
Economics
Energy
Politics
Social Issues
AssessmentsFeb 24, 2025 | 20:22 GMT
CDU leader Friedrich Merz (left) and the party's secretary general, Carsten Linnemann, hold a post-election press conference in Berlin, Germany, on Feb. 24, 2025.
German Election Results Position the Center-Right To Retake the Helm
Germany's new government will likely be more stable and coherent than its predecessor, enabling the CDU/CSU to prioritize economic stimulus and pursue stricter migration policies, a less ambitious climate agenda and a more assertive foreign policy vis-a-vis Russia, China and the United States. The center-right alliance between the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), emerged as the largest bloc in the German parliament following snap federal elections on Feb. 23, securing 28.5% of the vote. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party came in second with 20.8%, surpassing outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz's center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), which garnered 16.4%, and the Greens, with 11.3%. The left-wing Die Linke party outperformed expectations with 8.8%, while the pro-business, fiscally conservative Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the far-left, socially conservative Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) narrowly failed to meet the 5% threshold required to enter
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Germany
Economics
Energy
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
Politics
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
SnapshotsFeb 12, 2025 | 20:35 GMT
People wave Romanian flags and hold portraits of far-right presidential candidate Calin Georgescu during a protest in front of Romania's Constitutional Court in Bucharest on Jan. 10, 2025.
Romania's Deepening Political Crisis Risks Empowering the Far-Right
The resignation of Romania's president underscores the country's deepening political crisis, which is raising the risk of a far-right president taking office that would disrupt foreign policy and, less likely, a far-right prime minister that would worsen relations with the European Union and increase the risk of an economic crisis. On Feb. 10, Romanian President Klaus Iohannis announced he was stepping down amid a push from far-right lawmakers to impeach him over his role in annulling the results of the first round of the presidential election in November, in which a far-right candidate unexpectedly won the most votes. Hours later, on Feb. 11, the leader of the right-wing Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), George Simion, announced his party will also file a no-confidence motion against the government of Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu next week. Iohannis' resignation became effective on Feb. 12, when he was replaced by the
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Romania
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsJan 29, 2025 | 21:28 GMT
Brazil’s Economic Growth Is Set To Face Headwinds
Brazil's current strong economic growth is unsustainable over the medium term due to continued low savings and investment and increasing uncertainty about the fiscal outlook, which will force the government to take more forceful adjustment measures in the next two to three years. According to the International Monetary Fund, Brazil's real gross domestic product grew by 3% in both 2022 and 2023, and real GDP is expected to have grown another 3% in 2024, marking an acceleration after over a decade of significant economic underperformance. This growth is supported by strong domestic consumption, increased agricultural and hydrocarbon output, and a pro-cyclical fiscal policy, which describes the government's tendency to increase spending (or reduce taxes) during periods of economic expansion. However, the IMF projects that Brazil's gross government debt will increase substantially from 85% of GDP in 2023 to 95% of GDP by 2027, and fiscal deficits are also high, amounting
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Brazil
Economics
AssessmentsDec 24, 2024 | 10:00 GMT
The Geopolitics of Water
The Geopolitics of Water: A Prolonged Drought Dries Up North Africa's Resources
Facing an ongoing drought, North African governments are promoting water-saving technologies and infrastructure improvements, but prolonged overconsumption in the agricultural sector, mismanagement and technological constraints will worsen water stress and heighten the risk of unrest over time. North Africa is in its sixth year of drought, most directly impacting Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, and regional rainfall has decreased more broadly over the past several decades due to the effects of climate change, which are anticipated to worsen in the coming years. As a result of the drought, North Africa has less arable land, emptier regional dams, a loss of agricultural jobs and higher food prices. Water scarcity is projected to continue rising alongside North Africa's population, which the Institute for Security Studies, an African human security organization, projects will grow from 121.4 million in 1990 to 270.5 million by 2043. Already, growing populations have pushed North African countries to overexploit
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Algeria
Morocco
Tunisia
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Politics
AssessmentsDec 18, 2024 | 19:55 GMT
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol speaks during a news broadcast on a television at a train station in Seoul on Dec. 3, 2024, after Yoon declared emergency martial law.
Yoon's Impeachment Opens a New Chapter in South Korea's Saga of Political Instability
Despite South Korean lawmakers voting to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol, there is still ample room for political instability in the months ahead, keeping the country's economic and foreign policy trajectory in limbo. On Dec. 14, South Korea's National Assembly voted 204-85 to impeach President Yoon over his abortive Dec. 3-4 martial law bid. Yoon was immediately suspended from his duties, with Prime Minister Han Duck-soo becoming acting president until the Constitutional Court rules on whether to confirm Yoon's impeachment within the next six months. Meanwhile, the head of Yoon's ruling People Power Party (PPP), Han Dong-hoon, announced on Dec. 16 that he was stepping down after he called for Yoon's impeachment ahead of the Dec. 14 vote, going against the wishes of most PPP lawmakers. Meanwhile, the head of the opposition Democratic Party (DP), Lee Jae-myung, said on Dec. 15 that the party would ''for now'' not seek to
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South Korea
Politics
SnapshotsDec 6, 2024 | 18:41 GMT
Demonstrators hold EU and Romanian national flags during a pro-European rally in support of democracy at University Square in Bucharest, Romania, on Dec. 5, 2024, a few days before key elections.
Romania's Election Annulment Raises the Stakes Domestically and Abroad
The annulment of Romania's presidential election on grounds of procedural irregularities and a Russian-backed influence campaign might further politically advantage anti-establishment parties in the election re-run, undermine public trust in the country's institutions and create a precedent for controversial election results in other parts of Europe. On Dec. 6, Romania's Constitutional Court annulled the first round of the presidential election, citing procedural irregularities and evidence of a Russian-backed online influence campaign supporting far-right independent candidate Calin Georgescu, who won the most votes. The prosecutor general's office is also reportedly considering opening criminal investigations into Georgescu's campaign. Georgescu, who unexpectedly secured 23% of the vote in the first round of the presidential election on Nov. 24 despite low polling during the campaign, was set to face off against the center-right Save Romania Union's liberal candidate Elena Lasconi, who received 19.3%, in the second round originally scheduled for Dec. 8. The annulment
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Romania
Politics
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