PodcastsApr 25, 2025 | 10:00 GMT
Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for India's Economy
In this episode of Essential Geopolitics, RANE South Asia Analyst Misha Iqbal discusses India's recent slowing growth and overall economic outlook.
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AssessmentsApr 24, 2025 | 21:18 GMT
India-Pakistan Tensions Surge Following Deadly Kashmir Attack
India and Pakistan's series of tit-for-tat diplomatic and economic moves following a deadly militant attack will heighten the risk of kinetic responses, such as airstrikes or special forces operations, while also fueling domestic unrest due to rising nationalist sentiment in both countries. On April 23-24, India and Pakistan announced a series of sweeping tit-for-tat measures to scale back bilateral ties following a deadly militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed 26 civilians and injured 17 others. The attack, which took place on April 22 at the Baisaran meadows near the popular tourist town of Pahalgam, is one of the deadliest assaults on civilians in India since the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Briefing the media on April 23, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri stated that a special security cabinet meeting had confirmed Pakistani links to the attack. In response, the Indian government has taken several steps, including suspending a key river water
READ MORESituation ReportApr 24, 2025 | 18:43 GMT
South Korea: First Quarter GDP Contracts, Second Quarter Off to a Poor Start
South Korea's first-quarter gross domestic product dropped 0.1% year on year, while consumption fell 0.1%, exports dropped 1.1%, and construction and facility investment fell 3.2% and 2.1%, respectively, according to the Bank of Korea on April 24.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 24, 2025 | 15:51 GMT
India, Pakistan: Tensions Rise as Pakistan, India Downgrade Relations, Threaten Escalation
India announced the suspension of the 1960 Indus Water Treaty and ordered Pakistani nationals within its territory to leave the country by April 27, following the April 22 attack by The Resistance Front that killed at least 26 people in the locality of Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir province, The Times of India reported on April 24.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 24, 2025 | 15:44 GMT
EU, China: Beijing Ready to Lift Sanctions on European Lawmakers to Revive EU Investment Agreement
China is preparing to lift sanctions on European Parliament lawmakers in an effort to revive its stalled Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) with the European Union, the Financial Times reported April 23, citing a spokesperson for European Parliament President Roberta Metsola.
READ MORESnapshotsApr 24, 2025 | 13:15 GMT
Russia Opens Door to Western Firms, But With Major Strings Attached
Recent Russian moves towards reopening the country to Western businesses will open the door for some companies to reenter the Russian market, but steep requirements, sanctions risks and reputational considerations will likely prevent a mass return of Western firms anytime soon. On April 10, Alexey Yakovlev, a top official in Russia's finance ministry, confirmed to reporters that the ministry had compiled a draft set of requirements for foreign companies to resume operations in Russia after hundreds left their local operations or had them seized after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. According to leaks published in various Russian and Western media outlets, these draft conditions include that companies: obtain approval from a special government subcommission; not provide any support for Ukraine or be designated as hostile agents by Russian authorities; have no outstanding debts in terms of paying wages, taxes or otherwise; commit to localizing production and transferring technology;
READ MOREAssessmentsApr 24, 2025 | 13:00 GMT
U.S. Naval Update Map: April 24, 2025
The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs), based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance over the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier and includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 23, 2025 | 18:27 GMT
Brazil: Lawmaker's Refusal To Take Cabinet Position Suggests Slow Policymaking and Business Uncertainty
Brazilian lawmaker Pedro Lucas Fernandes rejected an invitation from President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to become communications minister two weeks after the government announced he would take the role, g1 reported on April 22.
READ MORESnapshotsApr 23, 2025 | 18:09 GMT
Growing U.S. Pressure for a Peace Deal Puts Ukraine in a Difficult Position
Growing U.S. pressure to wind down the war in Ukraine will force Kyiv to choose between compromising on its supposed red lines to de-escalate the conflict, or risk losing U.S. support and its battlefield position by refusing to cede.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 23, 2025 | 16:50 GMT
Cote d’Ivoire: Court Bars Opposition Leader Tidjane Thiam From Running in Presidential Election
An Ivorian court effectively barred the leader of the opposition Democratic Party of Cote d'Ivoire, or PDCI, Tidjane Thiam, from running in the country's Oct. 25 presidential election after ruling that he had lost his Ivorian nationality, Reuters reported on April 22.
READ MOREAssessmentsApr 22, 2025 | 20:44 GMT
The Geopolitics of Trade: The Impact of U.S. Tariffs on South Korea and Japan
U.S. tariffs on South Korea and Japan could sway upcoming leadership contests in both countries, modestly increase their trade with China and erode U.S.-South Korea defense cooperation, but they are unlikely to undermine U.S.-Japan security ties. From April 16-18, Japanese and U.S. officials held trade negotiations in Washington, and South Korean representatives are expected to travel to the United States in the coming days to begin their own talks. These moves come after U.S. President Donald Trump on April 9 granted a 90-day pause to "reciprocal" tariffs on most countries -- including tariffs of 24% on Japan and 26% on South Korea -- bringing the reciprocal tariff down to 10% for all countries except China. This reprieve did not, however, apply to imported vehicles or auto parts, key export industries in both South Korea and Japan that rely heavily on exports to the U.S. market. Those goods were subjected to
READ MORESituation ReportApr 22, 2025 | 18:50 GMT
Russia, Ukraine: Putin Reportedly Offered To Freeze Conflict Along Frontlines
Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly told U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff during a meeting on April 11 in St. Petersburg that Russia was prepared to freeze its invasion along the current frontlines in Ukraine as part of an effort to reach a U.S.-mediated peace deal, the Finacial Times reported on April 22, citing people familiar with the officials’ discussion.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 22, 2025 | 16:53 GMT
Russia, Ukraine: Leaders' Rhetoric Suggests Opening for Limited Ceasefire
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Russian President Vladimir Putin was prepared to evaluate an offer from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to stop attacks against civilian infrastructure, The Guardian reported on April 22.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 21, 2025 | 16:44 GMT
Congo: Government Suspends Former President Kabila's Party, Opens High Treason Case
The government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo announced the suspension of former President Joseph Kabila's People's Party for Reconstruction and Democracy, or PPRD, Reuters reported on April 20.
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsApr 21, 2025 | 16:30 GMT
Hezbollah's Future in Lebanon
In an April 8 Reuters report, a senior Hezbollah official said the group was ready to hold talks with the Lebanese president about laying down its arms, with the condition that Israel withdraws from the five outposts it captured in southern Lebanon and halts its attacks on Lebanon. The report came amid increasing calls domestically and internationally for Hezbollah to disarm, especially following U.S. special envoy Morgan Ortagus' visit to Beirut, where she emphasized the need to disarm the group.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 21, 2025 | 15:59 GMT
Iran, U.S.: Nuclear Talks Appear Positive Despite Mixed Messaging on Enrichment
U.S. and Iranian officials made positive remarks following their second round of indirect nuclear talks, and technical talks will occur on April 23, followed by high-level talks on April 26, Reuters reported on April 19.
READ MOREAssessmentsApr 19, 2025 | 14:00 GMT
The Weekly Rundown: Von der Leyen Meets Starmer, a U.S.-Ukraine Minerals Deal
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.
READ MOREAssessmentsApr 18, 2025 | 20:11 GMT
Geopolitical Calendar
Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 18, 2025 | 16:40 GMT
Congo, Rwanda: U.S. Hints at Further Pressure on Rwanda as M23 Shows Signs of Weakness
The Africa Adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump, Massad Boulos, called on Rwanda to halt all military support to the M23 rebel group and withdraw its troops from the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, adding that the United States was considering "all economic and diplomatic means to promote peace" in the region, Bloomberg reported on April 17.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 18, 2025 | 16:02 GMT
U.S., Ukraine: Officials Agree on Memorandum, Paving Way for Minerals Deal
The United States and Ukraine signed a memorandum of intent to move forward with a larger economic partnership deal, according to an April 17 social media post by Ukraine's economy minister, in a move that is widely reported to give the United States preferential access to revenues generated from the development of Ukraine's infrastructure and natural resources, including critical minerals.
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